War Risks: Israeli air strikes on Gaza damage relations with Egypt and increase the terrorist threat to southern Israel from Sinai-based Islamists
In the period 9-14 November 2012, the Israeli military claims that some 120 rockets were fired from the Gaza strip into Israel. On 14 November 2012, the IDF conducted a series of retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, one of which targeted and killed Ahmad al-Jaabari, the chief of Hamas's military wing. Since then, further rocket attacks resulted in moderate property damage in Ashdod and Be'er Sheva, injuries and three Israeli civilian deaths in Kiryat Malachi. We judge that Prime Minister Netanyahu felt a political imperative to retaliate to the scale of rocket fire, despite the impact on relations with Egypt, which had been brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The IDF claims that its airstrikes have already destroyed most of Hamas's long-range Fajr rocket launching sites and underground ammunition dumps. The Israeli government holds Hamas, because of its relationship to the Palestine Authority government, as responsible for all rocket strikes, despite the likely involvement of other factions. The Israelis are clearly considering a follow-up ground operation, with a selective mobilisation of several hundred reservists for the Gaza Division and other units ordered on 15 November 2012. However, we assess that Israel will be reluctant to launch a ground operation, given the increased risk of Israeli casualties and the adverse publicity from Palestinian civilian casualties, as long as they judge the militants' capability to hit Israeli targets has been sufficiently degraded by air strikes.
The main risk to Israel is the impact of this action on Israel's already fragile relations with Egypt. Dependence on US aid means that President Morsi is unlikely to give in to popular pressure to abrogate Egypt's treaty with Israel, or to risk a military confrontation. Morsi is, however, at a minimum, likely to hold back from taking action against a likely increase in militant attacks on Israel, including rocket attacks on Eilat, from Sinai-based Islamists. This increases the likelihood of further Israeli air strikes and Special Forces raids against militant camps in Sinai.
While the Israelis claim that Gaza militants have been supplied with Fajr 5 rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv, the locations hit by rocket strikes to date points to the use of Fajr 3, capable of reaching Ashdod and Be'er Sheva, and Grad and Qassem, capable of hitting Ashkelon and Sderot. None of these weapons can be accurately targeted at specific installations and the militants lack the capability to adjust fire by observation.