Chapter 17: The Plague of Justinian
Fatality and duration
The first epidemics of the plague of Justinian started in 541 AD and ended in 549 AD. It afflicted mostly the Mediterranean area, Europe, and the Near East. During these eight years, it killed between 15 million and 100 million people depending of the estimates[1] [2], which represented between 25% and 60% of Europe's population of the time[3].
This was the death count only for the first outbreak. The plague of Justinian had 18 epidemics outbreaks[4] spread over more than two centuries. It finally abated in 767 AD.
Origin
The years preceding and following the first outbreak of 541 AD were marked by major catastrophic events.
According to dendochronologist Mike Baillie, European oak tree data[5] reveal that a major cooling event happened from 536 AD to 545 AD. Actually this drastic cooling was not only recorded in Europe oak tree rings. Baillie’s conclusions were confirmed by dendrochronological studies conducted on Fennoscandian pine trees[6], Eastern Alps Pines[7], Mongolian tree rings[8], Argentinian tree rings[9], North American bristle-cone[10] and North American foxtail pines[11]:
As shown in the illustration above, the cooling episode was truly global. It was also exceptionally severe; the reduced rate of growth revealed by these tree rings corresponds to a global cooling[12] of up to 3 °C[13]. It makes this few years interval the coldest one of the past 2,000 years[14].
This cooling event is confirmed by several chroniclers and seems to have been caused by an extraordinary dust veil as reported by chroniclers of the time among which Procopius[15]:
[…] during this year a most dread portent took place. For the Sun gave forth its light without brightness […] and it seemed exceedingly like the Sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear[16]
This report is confirmed by Michael the Syrian[17]. The latter described the event as follows:
The Sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours, and still this light was only a feeble shadow[18]
Flavius Cassiodorus[19] wrote about conditions that he experienced 536 AD, which are quite similar what other chroniclers describe:
The Sun seems to have lost its wonted light, and appears of a bluish colour. We marvel to see no shadows of our bodies at noon, to feel the mighty vigour of the Sun's heat wasted into feebleness, and the phenomena which accompany an eclipse prolonged through almost a whole year. We have had a summer without heat. The crops have been chilled by north winds, [and] the rain is denied[20]
Besides severe cooling, ice cores reveal[21] a prominent sulfate spike ca. 536 AD. This sulfate spike is supposed to be due to a gigantic volcanic eruption[22]. But this hypothesis raises two problems. First, there’s no trace of a prominent eruption around these years, the two main candidates, Krakatao[23] and Ilopango[24] having been successively discarded. Second, a mega eruption should dramatically increase the atmospheric acidity and no ice core reveals such a spike:
A super-volcano would be expected to produce significant acidity in the atmosphere. This acidity would be recorded in the polar ice caps. Numerous ice-core studies have been carried out in both Greenland and Antarctica (see, for example, Clausen et al. 1997, Hammer et al. 1997). None of these has found evidence for a significant acid layer around 536 of the sort that would be caused by the eruption of a super-volcano.[25]
The other potential source for atmospheric sulfate is a cometary event[26]: direct impact(s) and/or overhead explosion(s). Actually, the sighting of a comet is mentioned explicitly by Procopius ca. 536 AD:
At that time also the comet appeared, at first about as long as a tall man, but later much larger. And the end of it was toward the west and its beginning toward the east, and it followed behind the sun itself. For the sun was in Capricorn and it was in Sagittarius. And some called it "the swordfish" because it was of goodly length and very sharp at the point, and others called it "the bearded star"; it was seen for more than forty days.[27]
Zacharia of Mitylene[28] make a similar observation:
In the eleventh year of Justinian [538AD], […] in the month of December a great and terrible comet appeared in the sky at evening-time for one hundred days. And that year the peace between the kingdoms was broken.[29]
Chinese chronicles from 540 AD[30] seems to confirm what was observed in the West:
Dragons [comets] fought in the pond of the K'uh o. They went westward....In the places they passed, all the trees were broken
The finding of nickel-rich particles and iron cosmic spherules tend to confirm this chroniclers’ observation:
We found Ni-rich particles and I-type (Fe-oxide) cosmic spherules […] dated by us to between 533 and 540 A.D.[31]
Notice that nickel is one the most reliable meteoritic signatures. While nickel is extremely rare in the Earth (0.0084%[32]), it’s abundant in meteorites which contain up to 30%[33] of nickel. Actually, high nickel content is such a sure indication that a material is meteoritic that it is used to discriminate non-meteoritic material from meteoritic material:
If the metal contains <4% nickel, then the metal chunk or rock is not a meteorite.[34]
The analysis of ice cores between 533 and 540 AD also revealed an unexpected high concentration of extraterrestrial dust:
[…] we instead found surprisingly large abundances and sizes of inferred extraterrestrial particles within a restricted stratigraphic interval. These results could mean that the time between A.D. 533 and 540 had an unusually high deposition rate of extraterrestrial particles.[35]
In addition to the iron spherules, the GISP2[36] ice core for ca. 536 AD revealed the presence of silicate spherules[37], which are the byproducts of impact events[38]:
To recap, the absence of substantial volcanic eruption and accompanying acidity spike for the period 533-540 AD tends to discard the only-volcano hypothesis. The above doesn’t mean that volcanic eruptions were not one of the contributors[41] but it was probably not the main contributor and, as shown in our previous book[42], cometary activity can cause volcanic eruptions anyway.
Meanwhile, the high concentration of nickel-rich particles, iron cosmic spherules, silicate spherules and extraterrestrial dust found in the ca. 536 AD geological records strongly suggest that a cometary encounter was the main cause of the dust veil and the ensuing global cooling ca. 536 AD.
If one zooms in the five years from 536 to 540 AD, the multiplicity of comet sightings in the years 536-540 AD (in particular, Procopius in 536 AD, Zacharia of Mitylene in 538 AD, Chinese chronicles in 540 AD) plus the worsening in the drop temperature record by dendrochronology[39] (cooling in 536 AD that worsen 538 AD and that worsen even more in 540 AD) plus the detection of the cometary material in ice cores (notably in 536, 538 and 541 AD) suggests that there was not one but, at least three, closely interspersed major cometary bombardments and/or overhead explosions in this five years span[40]:
The few years or months between the cometary events (536, 538, 540 AD) and the first known outbreak of the plague of Justinian (ca. 541 AD) is consistent with the delay of transport of comet-borne viruses from the atmosphere to the Earth’s surface. Indeed, virus can take up to a few years to fall through the atmosphere before reaching the surface of our planet:
The smaller sub-micron sized particles and any microbes and viral particles attached to them, do not burn up. Instead, they fall upon the upper atmosphere (the mesophere and stratosphere), and then slowly drift down and upon the air currents, sometimes staying aloft for years, crisscrossing the planet, gently falling downward, until finally making a soft landing on whatever is beneath them, be it ocean, river, animal, plant, or human.[43]
When the virus finally reaches the ground, it has yet to find suitable human hosts. Once it’s done, these hosts have to be in contact with a large enough and susceptible enough population to spread and generate a noticeable-enough epidemics. Only then chroniclers, if located in the right region, can write down the “beginning” of the plague.
All the above suggests that the plague of Justinian was probably caused by a comet-borne virus. These cometary events also triggered the global cooling that preceded the first epidemic outbreak.
Maybe, that’s why, Venerable Bede, the most erudite individual of these chaotic times considered comets as the cause of the plague, including the Plague of Justinian, which he was contemporary to, described comets as:
Stars with flames like hair. They are born suddenly, portending a change of royal power or plague or wars or winds or heat.[44]
[1] Stathakopoulos, Dionysios (2018) "Plague, Justinianic (Early Medieval Pandemic)" in The Oxford Dictionary of Late Antiquity, Oxford University Press
[2] Arrizabalaga, Jon (2010) "plague and epidemics" in The Oxford Dictionary of the Middle Ages, Oxford University Press
[3] Mordechai, Lee et al. (2019) "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?" PNAS 116 (51): 25546
[4] Mordechai, 2019
[5] Baillie, M. (1994) “Dendrochronology raises questions about the nature of the AD 536 dust-veil event“ The Holocene, vol. 4, Pp. 212-217
[6] Briffa, K. et al. (1990) “A 1,400-year tree-ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia” Nature 346, 434–439
[7] Nicolussi, K. et al. (2005) “Holocene tree‐line variability in the Kauner Valley, central eastern Alps, indicated by dendrochronological analysis of living trees and subfossil logs”, Vegetation Hist. Archaeobot., 14, 221–234
[8] D’arrigo, R. et al. (2001) “1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree-ring width chronology of Siberian pine” Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 543-546
[9] Baillie, M. (1999) “Exodus to Arthur: Catastrophic Encounters with Comets” B.T. Batsford
[10] Lamarche, VC Jr. (1974) “Paleoclimatic Inferences from Long Tree-Ring Records: Intersite comparison shows climatic anomalies that may be linked to features of the general circulation” Science 183(4129):1043-8
[11] Scuderi, L. (1990) “Tree-Ring Evidence for Climatically Effective Volcanic Eruptions” Quaternary Research, 34(1), 67-85.
[12] Briffa, K., et al. (1990) “A 1,400-year tree-ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia” Nature 346, 434–439
[13] 1.7F
[14] Abbott, D. H. et al. (2008) "Magnetite and Silicate Spherules from the GISP2 Core at the 536 A.D. Horizon" AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 41: 41B–1454
[15] (ca. 500 – 565 AD) prominent Greek scholar
[16] Dewing, B. H. (1916) “History of the Wars” Harvard University Press
[17] (ca. 1126 – 1199 AD) author of the largest medieval Chronicle
[18] Chabot, J B. (1901) ‘’Chronique de Michel le Syrien’’ Ernest Leroux
[19] (ca. 485 – 585 AD) Roman statesman, renowned scholar of antiquity
[20] Cassiodorus (2019) “The Variae” University of California Press
[21] Larsen, L. B.et al. (2008) "New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the A.D. 536 dust veil" Geophys. Res. Lett., 35
[22] We are going to see in chapter 19 that Vesuvius probably erupted ca. 536 AD but it doesn’t account for the whole sulfate spike
[23] Keys, David (2000) “Catastrophe: an investigation into the origins of the modern world” Ballantine Pub
[24] Victoria C. Smith et al. (2020) "The magnitude and impact of the 431 CE Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango, El Salvador" PNAS
[25] Rigby, Emma et al. (2004) “A comet impact in AD 536?” Astronomy & Geophysics. 45. 1.23 - 1.26. 10.1046
[26] Lunar and Planetary Institute Editors (2021) “Impact Induced perturbations of Atmosheric Sulfur” Lunar and Planetary Institute
[27] Procopius (2020) “History of the Wars” Independently Published
[28] (ca. 465 – 536 AD) A bishop and ecclesiastical historian
[29] Zachariah of Mitylene (1899) “The Syriac Chronicle” Methuen & Co
[30] Greg Bryant (1999) “The Dark Ages: Were They Darker Than We Imagined?” Universe
[31] Abbott, D. et al. (2014). “What Caused Terrestrial Dust Loading and Climate Downturns Between 533 and 540 A.D.?”. Special Paper of the Geological Society of America. 505. 421-427. 10.1130/2014.2505(23).
[32] CRC Editors (2016). “Abundance Of Elements In The Earth’s Crust And In The Sea” CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, 97th edition p. 14-17
[33] Randy L. Korotev. (2021). “Some Meteorite Information: Metal, Iron, & Nickel”. Washington University in St. Louis
[34] Korotev, 2021.
[35] Abbott, D. et al. (2014). “What Caused Terrestrial Dust Loading and Climate Downturns Between 533 and 540 A.D.?” Special Paper of the Geological Society of America 505. 421-427. 10.1130/2014.2505(23)
[36] Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2
[37] Abbott, D.H. et al. (2008) “Magnetite and Silicate Spherules from the GISP2 Core at the 536 A.D. Horizon” AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
[38] Drabon N. (2014) “Spherules” In: Amils, R. et al. ‘’Encyclopedia of Astrobiology’’. Springer
[39] See Larsen dendrochronology chart in the beginning in this chapter
[40] Dallas Abbott Lamont - Doherty (2010) “Did a Conflagration of Comets Contribute Dust to the Earth and Cause Climate Downturns between 532 and 542 A.D.?” Earth Observatory of Columbia University
[41] Larsen, L. et al. (2008) “New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the A.D. 536 dust veil” Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04708
[42] Lescaudron, Pierre (2021) ‘’Cometary Encounters’’ Red Pill Press, Chapter “Correlation between Cometary Activity and Volcanic Activity”
[43] J. Wickramasingh et al. (2010) “Comets and the Origin of Life”. World Scientific Publishing Co
[44] Leneghan F. (2020) “Comets, omens and fear: understanding plague in the Middle Ages”. University of Oxford