Mood and some things going on inside Russia right now

Amarock

The Force is Strong With This One
Hello all! I have a couple of questions or rather general direction that hopefully will be discussed in future sessions with the Cs

So basically I live in Russia and all political discussion always boils down to matter of ongoing conflict. Recently, I guess within last half a year or so, our government decided that the most important thing there is to do is to get internet under control. First it started mildly with state-funded messenger Max which didn't get any traction because of how sloppy it was made (and also a proved spyware), then to make people use the app officials tied authorization process on government digital services into this app but basically that also didn't work, then they started to slow down Telegram as the most popular app which at this point is completely unusable without VPN services. Right now we're at a point where government officials openly discuss adding fines for people whos use VPN, proxy etc.
This entire process is accompanied by ever growing dissent within general population because while it was justified by security measures (same as always) most people who care thought that this is just another attempt to redirect people and their money to state-affiliated services (pretty much every approved app is created by VK holding which is controlled by Kirienko family who is Putin's friend since early 2000s).
But right now we came at the point where this policy of "national security" and "digital sovereignty" is shoved into people's mouths so forcibly that it is literally affects population moral.
This war is going on for more that 4 full years with end nowhere in sight, and not at a single point general population showed signs of potential mutiny that required this much of a strongarming. Seeing how west reacted to the start of this war cause a lot of people who wasn't initially onboard to sympathize with war effort. Which meant that our government got a lot of trust for doing what's necessary. And THIS is what this trust is being wasted upon?

So basically I have only two explanation to all that:
1) Either we gonna have an escalation and a full scale war with continental Europe within foreseeable future, which means mobilization. And to crowd control they are doubling on total digital control.
2) Or somebody (MI6 anyone?) whispering into Putin ear to sabotage Russian war effort. Clearly, during war there is a request for security, but whoever proposes this measures this much this fast is sabotaging by "reductio ad absurdum".

Let me repeat this: in 4 full years of war nothing (not partial mobilization, not drone bombing of civilian infrastructure, not Prigozhin rebelion, not leaving Kherson etc) did this much damage to public's moral as this. To also add some context: Maxut Shadayev who is main guy in ministry of digital development (which is responsible for most of this) literally said a couple of days ago "We're executive branch and so we execute orders from higher ups". In Russia's politics it is abnormal to shift blame to higher ups and ESPECIALLY the president. Usually it's done the other way around where low positions guys are used as lightning rod for unpopular decisions. Also there are upcoming elections in fall 2026 which are not guaranteed to be smooth with things like this. In fact "opposition" party new people already gains popularity by recent polls.
It does so much damage that it looks more like sabotage and shooting one's own leg more than sloppy implementation.

So yeah that basically it, hopefully I was able to convey that this is what being discussed a lot in Russia recently and maybe we'll get some info from Cs in the future
 
There is something called ‘political capital’ which means a government gets such a high approval rating that it allows them to make decisions which need to be made that the population may not like, e.g., raising taxes.

Putin definitely has this kind of capital.

2) Or somebody (MI6 anyone?) whispering into Putin ear to sabotage Russian war effort. Clearly, during war there is a request for security, but whoever proposes this measures this much this fast is sabotaging by "reductio ad absurdum".

Also there are upcoming elections in fall 2026 which are not guaranteed to be smooth with things like this. In fact "opposition" party new people already gains popularity by recent polls.

Are either of these two ideas likely in reality?
 
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