Mood and some things going on inside Russia right now

[Amarock]

Hello all! I have a couple of questions or rather general direction that hopefully will be discussed in future sessions with the Cs

So basically I live in Russia and all political discussion always boils down to matter of ongoing conflict. Recently, I guess within last half a year or so, our government decided that the most important thing there is to do is to get internet under control. First it started mildly with state-funded messenger Max which didn't get any traction because of how sloppy it was made (and also a proved spyware), then to make people use the app officials tied authorization process on government digital services into this app but basically that also didn't work, then they started to slow down Telegram as the most popular app which at this point is completely unusable without VPN services. Right now we're at a point where government officials openly discuss adding fines for people whos use VPN, proxy etc.
This entire process is accompanied by ever growing dissent within general population because while it was justified by security measures (same as always) most people who care thought that this is just another attempt to redirect people and their money to state-affiliated services (pretty much every approved app is created by VK holding which is controlled by Kirienko family who is Putin's friend since early 2000s).
But right now we came at the point where this policy of "national security" and "digital sovereignty" is shoved into people's mouths so forcibly that it is literally affects population moral.
This war is going on for more that 4 full years with end nowhere in sight, and not at a single point general population showed signs of potential mutiny that required this much of a strongarming. Seeing how west reacted to the start of this war cause a lot of people who wasn't initially onboard to sympathize with war effort. Which meant that our government got a lot of trust for doing what's necessary. And THIS is what this trust is being wasted upon?

So basically I have only two explanation to all that:
1) Either we gonna have an escalation and a full scale war with continental Europe within foreseeable future, which means mobilization. And to crowd control they are doubling on total digital control.
2) Or somebody (MI6 anyone?) whispering into Putin ear to sabotage Russian war effort. Clearly, during war there is a request for security, but whoever proposes this measures this much this fast is sabotaging by "reductio ad absurdum".

Let me repeat this: in 4 full years of war nothing (not partial mobilization, not drone bombing of civilian infrastructure, not Prigozhin rebelion, not leaving Kherson etc) did this much damage to public's moral as this. To also add some context: Maxut Shadayev who is main guy in ministry of digital development (which is responsible for most of this) literally said a couple of days ago "We're executive branch and so we execute orders from higher ups". In Russia's politics it is abnormal to shift blame to higher ups and ESPECIALLY the president. Usually it's done the other way around where low positions guys are used as lightning rod for unpopular decisions. Also there are upcoming elections in fall 2026 which are not guaranteed to be smooth with things like this. In fact "opposition" party new people already gains popularity by recent polls.
It does so much damage that it looks more like sabotage and shooting one's own leg more than sloppy implementation.

So yeah that basically it, hopefully I was able to convey that this is what being discussed a lot in Russia recently and maybe we'll get some info from Cs in the future

 

[T.C.]

There is something called ‘political capital’ which means a government gets such a high approval rating that it allows them to make decisions which need to be made that the population may not like, e.g., raising taxes.

Putin definitely has this kind of capital.

2) Or somebody (MI6 anyone?) whispering into Putin ear to sabotage Russian war effort. Clearly, during war there is a request for security, but whoever proposes this measures this much this fast is sabotaging by "reductio ad absurdum".

Also there are upcoming elections in fall 2026 which are not guaranteed to be smooth with things like this. In fact "opposition" party new people already gains popularity by recent polls.

Are either of these two ideas likely in reality?

 

[iamthatis]

On the Duran podcast, it was said that the crackdown on Telegram and the switch to Max was due to Ukrainian agents collecting sensitive information from Telegram. That points to a modified version of Option 1. The difference is that it may not signal a full-scale war with Europe, but rather a security measure within the parameters of the current conflict. The Duran also discussed how the Russian state did not communicate well at all with these changes, operating in a rather ham-handed way. IIRC, they also discussed how that the upcoming elections will be contentious, with declining popularity for Putin's party shown in polls.

 

[luc]

Let me repeat this: in 4 full years of war nothing (not partial mobilization, not drone bombing of civilian infrastructure, not Prigozhin rebelion, not leaving Kherson etc) did this much damage to public's moral as this. To also add some context: Maxut Shadayev who is main guy in ministry of digital development (which is responsible for most of this) literally said a couple of days ago "We're executive branch and so we execute orders from higher ups". In Russia's politics it is abnormal to shift blame to higher ups and ESPECIALLY the president.

IIRC, they also discussed how that the upcoming elections will be contentious, with declining popularity for Putin's party shown in polls.

All very interesting - I noticed on social media that many otherwise pro-Russian or Russian accounts are lately more negative towards the Russian government. From a more left-wing, anti-imperialist side they see Russia as too inactive in their engagement on the side of the "axis of resistance," especially since Iran is currently demonstrating such force. On the more right-wing side, people are demanding Russia crush the Ukrainians already instead of sending their men to die in this slow grind, and generally accusing Putin and his government of being too submissive to the "Western partners" and not tough enough (especially in light of the drone attacks and other Ukrainian shenenigans). I know that this sentiment has always existed with certain people/groups in Russia, but it seems more prevalent now. Hard to say though from the outside. I would be interested to hear more from people in Russia - whether there is more dissatisfaction with Putin and his government along those lines in the population? Is the telegram thing perhaps just the final straw triggering a reaction by people with pent-up grievances?

 

[axj]

Where I live there are quite a lot of people who left Russia in the last few years and have a lot to tell about the perceived downsides of Russia. Some just feared mobilization, others are of a more liberal type who want "more democracy and Western freedoms".

Though a few concerns seem legitimate and not just from their reports. One thing is the ruble CBDC which is already more or less active. Another is that the surveillance, such as an incredible number of cameras, may be even more strict than in the West.

In both cases, this can be explained with enhancing security and sovereignity during the war, as well as maybe creating new payment options (banking between Russia and many other countries is almost non-existent now).

While this may look like Russia is "tightening the screws" for the same reasons as the West (i.e. creation of a digital concentration camp), this is not necessarily the case.