Northern & Southern Lights (aurora borealis/australis)

[whitecoast]

Cross-posting this update. We were hit with a lot of aurora sightings all over Canada this weekend.

This weekend there was a large geomagnetic storm over Canada, where the auroras reached even into the US. Photos of auroras taken locally were all over social media.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/northern-lights-photos-1.7201537

Since the C's said to "watch the land, sea, and skies" it made me wonder if this was another sign of some immanent phase shift. Perhaps related to the ice age? I know auroras are a sign of cosmic rays and particles entering our atmosphere more deeply, which can serve as nucleation sites for precipitation.

 

[Niall]

Cross-posting this update. We were hit with a lot of aurora sightings all over Canada this weekend.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/northern-lights-photos-1.7201537

Since the C's said to "watch the land, sea, and skies" it made me wonder if this was another sign of some immanent phase shift. Perhaps related to the ice age? I know auroras are a sign of cosmic rays and particles entering our atmosphere more deeply, which can serve as nucleation sites for precipitation.

Yup...

"...cosmic rays control short term and long term variation in climate... Ionization produced by cosmic rays in the troposphere and stratosphere produces ultra-fine aerosols which may act as cloud condensation nuclei... The variation in 10Be is a signature of changes in cosmic ray flux. Global temperature and 10Be concentration have opposite trends... Svensmark plotted magnitude of change in 10Be concentration and change in temperature during the period of the Maunder minimum and showed a striking similarity. The low solar magnetic activity during the Maunder minimum and earlier periods might have been among the principal causes of the Little Ice Age..."

The role of cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmospheric processes

 

[Iain]

A selection of photos from Yorkshire taken on 06 Nov 23 and then 10 May 24 - not quite as impressive as some, but still this is northern England:

Northern Lights shine over Yorkshire and Lincolnshire landmarks

The Northern Lights give a colourful display across the region.

www.bbc.com

Yorkshire photographers capture stunning Northern Lights

The vivid colours in the sky on Friday inspired a number of photographers.

www.bbc.com

Also, an image from 10 May 24 at the top of Otley Chevin - about a 20min walk from my house

 

[Niall]

The 'northern' lights were apparently seen as far south as the northern coastline of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789303061309010320

...and there's a rumor that they were seen in Jamaica, which is a little further south, at 18 degrees North. Confirmation of their appearance in the Yucatan from a local news report here.

When checking for reports about this, I found an article from The Atlantic about the Northern Lights being seen in Jamaica. At first I thought I was reading a contemporary report, but it is actually from December 1859. Here's an excerpt from that detailed report:

The aurora borealis of August 28th was surpassingly brilliant not only in the northern portion of this continent, but also as far south as the equator, — as well as in Cuba, Jamaica, California, and the greater portion of Europe. [...]

In Jamaica the aurora borealis was witnessed for the first time, perhaps, since the discovery of this island by Columbus. So rare is the phenomenon in those latitudes, that it was taken for the glare of a fire, and was associated with the recent riots.

The riots in question were probably the 1859 Toll Gate Riots of Jamaica, a rebellion against high taxes. And the aurora borealis seen at the time probably refers to the Carrington Event, the strongest-ever geomagnetic storm (in the modern era anyway), and which took place from 28 August to 2 September 1859.

So, is the recent celestial display not the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades, but in two centuries? Perhaps not in terms of damage caused, but maybe in terms of how far south it was seen.

Here's the full 1859 Atlantic report in PDF format, which describes in detail the lights people witnessed, and the geomagnetic's storms effects on the telegraph system, and other attendant phenomena like high concentrations of cirrus cloud formation preceding the event, and peculiar sounds heard during it, and also attempts to scientifically explain the lights. We now know that they are both a solar and a planetary/atmospheric phenomenon, but it's interesting to see them trying to figure all that out in the mid-19th century.

 

[Persej]

So, is the recent celestial display not the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades, but in two centuries? Perhaps not in terms of damage caused, but maybe in terms of how far south it was seen.

Well, the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and in that report they say that these grand auroras started in 1835:

The present century has been favored to a remarkable degree. The displays during the years 1835, ’36, ’37, ’46, ’48, ’51, ’52, and ’59, have been especially grand.

Perhaps what we are now witnessing is just a beginning of a series of grand auroras? Perhaps we are living in a repeat of 19th century?

 

[Persej]

So, is the recent celestial display not the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades, but in two centuries? Perhaps not in terms of damage caused, but maybe in terms of how far south it was seen.

The last big storm was in 1921. It was a very big storm, similar to the Carrington event. I checked to see if there was anything interesting happening at that time, and there was a comet that reached its perihelion on May 9th. The storm occurred on 13–15 May. So maybe there is a connection.

Since it occurred before the extensive interconnectivity of electrical systems and the general electrical dependence of infrastructure in the developed world, its effect was restricted; however, its ground currents were up to an order of magnitude greater than those of the March 1989 geomagnetic storm which interrupted electrical service to large parts of northeastern North America.

What is interesting about that comet is that it had a very long orbit of about 1,400 years. And, if I understand correctly the electric universe theory, the bigger the period of the visiting object, the bigger the electrical effect on the Sun will be. That is why the Nemesis and the 3,600-year period comets are so dangerous.

Since this time we don't have such a long period comet entering our solar system, I am inclined to think that what just happened is similar to what happened in 19th century.

 

[Benjamin]

The storm occurred on 13–15 May. So maybe there is a connection.

Here is a list of comets between 1800 to 2000. I looked to see if there was a connection in the aurora list from your previous post but they didn't line up well enough to see a definitive pattern other then noticing that there was a lot of activity. There is one significant comet that is missing from the Bright-Comet Chronicles that I posted about here (Frank Slide and Borelli's Comet) from 1903. Pierre's reply was very helpful.

THE BRIGHT-COMET CHRONICLES

Primary and secondary information on comets and observing comets.

icq.eps.harvard.edu

 

[Persej]

Here is a list of comets between 1800 to 2000. I looked to see if there was a connection in the aurora list from your previous post but they didn't line up well enough to see a definitive pattern other then noticing that there was a lot of activity.

Well, we could speculate if the higher charge of the solar system at that time perhaps also attracted more comets towards it, compared to the previous time period when the Sun had a normal charge. Many of those comets were long period comets that just happened to enter the solar system at that time. So maybe it wasn't that the comets caused higher solar activity, but it was the other way around, the higher solar activity attracted more comets.

Here is a comparison of this storm with the previous ones:

Comparison to other solar storms

The disturbance storm time index (Dst index) is a measure in the context of space weather. A negative Dst index means that Earth's magnetic field is weakened. This is particularly the case during solar storms, with a higher negative Dst index indicating a stronger solar storm.

The 2003 Halloween solar storms had a peak Dst index of −422 nT, while the March 1989 geomagnetic storm had a peak Dst index of −589 nT. The May 1921 geomagnetic storm has been estimated to have had a Dst index of −907±132 nT. Estimates for the Dst index of the Carrington Event superstorm of 1859 are between −800 nT and −1750 nT.

The May 2024 solar storms reached a maximum Dst index of −412 nT on 11 May.

May 2024 solar storms - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So even the storm of 1989 was much stronger.

 

[Jtucker]

The Aurora on 05.10 was obscured by thin clouds on Friday night in SW Manitoba. But I managed to get some shots with the night vision camera that brought them a little more to life. The sky to the north was completely purple throughout the night.

 

[Persej]

So maybe it wasn't that the comets caused higher solar activity, but it was the other way around, the higher solar activity attracted more comets.

There is also another theory, which goes that it can be exactly the opposite, the lower activity of the Sun would reduce the heliosphere, which would attract the cometary bodies into the solar system. And in the case of 19th century, there was a Dalton minimum from 1790 to 1830, and a couple of decades later comets arrived. In both cases, the comets are the consequence of changes in activity of the Sun.

 

[Niall]

When checking for reports about this, I found an article from The Atlantic about the Northern Lights being seen in Jamaica. At first I thought I was reading a contemporary report, but it is actually from December 1859. Here's an excerpt from that detailed report:


The riots in question were probably the 1859 Toll Gate Riots of Jamaica, a rebellion against high taxes. And the aurora borealis seen at the time probably refers to the Carrington Event, the strongest-ever geomagnetic storm (in the modern era anyway), and which took place from 28 August to 2 September 1859.

Looks like I was correct about the Carrington Event of 1859 being the last time auroras were so widely seen.

RARE SOUTH PACIFIC AURORAS CONFIRM 'GREAT STORM'
spaceweather.com, 16 May 2024

On the south Pacific island of New Caledonia, no one expects to see auroras. Ever. Situated about halfway between Tonga and Australia, the cigar-shaped island is too close to the equator for Northern or Southern Lights. Yet on May 10, 2024, this happened:

"I have rarely been so happy when taking a photo!" says Frédéric Desmoulins, who photographed the display from Boulouparis in the island's south province. "I could see the red color of the auroras with my naked eye. According to the New Caledonian Astronomy Society, these photos are the first for this territory."

"The auroral visibility from New Caledonia is really unique and extremely valuable," says Hisashi Hayakawa, a space weather researcher at Japan's Nagoya University. "The last time sky watchers saw auroras in the area may have been during the Carrington Event of Sept. 1859, when auroras were sighted from a ship in the Coral Sea."

Hayakawa specializes in historical studies of great auroral storms. He tries to go back in time as far as possible. The problem is, magnetometers and other modern sensors didn't exist hundreds of years ago. Instead, he looks for records of aurora sightings in old newspapers, diaries, ships logs and even paintings. Great Storms are identified by their low latitude - anything with naked-eye auroras below 30° MLAT (magnetic latitude).

"May 10th was definitely a 'Great Storm,'" declares Hayakawa. "Naked-eye auroras in New Caledonia (MLAT = -26.4°) and Puerto Rico (MLAT = 27.2°) cracked the latitude barrier in both of Earth's hemispheres."​

And that's not all. Recall the December 1859 Atlantic article I quoted above, which correlated riots breaking out in Jamaica with the sightings of auroras there during the Carrington Event.

Well, serious rioting broke out in New Caledonia a few days ago...

France declares state of emergency in New Caledonia after deadly riots​

 

[Persej]

This guy says that he predicted it some years ago. He also says that it is not over yet, and that we still have a year left into the solar maximum. He also doesn't understand why this powerful storm didn't have much stronger effect on Earth like the Carrington Event. So it seems that the storm was as powerful as the Carrington Event, but for some reason the effects on Earth were much milder, apart from aurora.

 

[Chu]

This guy says that he predicted it some years ago. He also says that it is not over yet, and that we still have a year left into the solar maximum. He also doesn't understand why this powerful storm didn't have much stronger effect on Earth like the Carrington Event. So it seems that the storm was as powerful as the Carrington Event, but for some reason the effects on Earth were much milder, apart from aurora.

Good one. And if I understood him correctly, although it's very unusual that it didn't fry anything, it may still do so within a year.

 

[Niall]

Perhaps it didn't fry us because of 'current sheet grounding'? If so, something 'out there' saved our technology from being fried, for now!

In the meantime, Mars is expected to be bathed in auroras from pole to pole from another CME hitting that planet... today!

Global Auroras on Mars​

 

[Persej]

And if I understood him correctly, although it's very unusual that it didn't fry anything, it may still do so within a year.

Yes, he is expecting more storms until the end of the maximum, which next year.

Perhaps it didn't fry us because of 'current sheet grounding'? If so, something 'out there' saved our technology from being fried, for now!

Yes, it looks almost as if something ate the energy from the storm.