Passenger Plane Crashes at Rostov-on-Don Airport in Russia

Interesting new video angles. It indeed looks like the plane very suddenly was pushed down. How and why I'm not sure.
 
Gawan said:
Pashalis said:
Interesting new video angles. It indeed looks like the plane very suddenly was pushed down. How and why I'm not sure.

Here is the embedded video with the imo interesting angle from the crash:



And it looks like if it follows the normal path and then suddenly falls out of the sky.

I don't think that's a normal path as it exits the cloud. Looks to me like it's already falling as it comes out. So something happened in the clouds or above it.
 
Joe said:
Gawan said:
Pashalis said:

And it looks like if it follows the normal path and then suddenly falls out of the sky.

I don't think that's a normal path as it exits the cloud. Looks to me like it's already falling as it comes out. So something happened in the clouds or above it.

That’s what I’m thinking. In the video Anam Cara posted, the plane is seen flying below the clouds, which could mean the pilot was attempting to land, but then the plane changes course and is seen ascending again; so maybe the pilot realized how difficult it would be to land? Either way, the plane disappears in the clouds, and whatever happened, occurred in the course of 20 seconds, as that is when the plane reemerges, falling out of the sky.

Edit=Quote
 
What are the odds of it dropping out of the sky and impacting just left of the runway it would have landed on but for the fact that it had spent two hours circling the city in an attempt to find a good time to land on that very runway?!
 
Niall said:
What are the odds of it dropping out of the sky and impacting just left of the runway it would have landed on but for the fact that it had spent two hours circling the city in an attempt to find a good time to land on that very runway?!

Well, if it is being slammed down by an airburst it doesn't have the time to make the finer adjustments to aim at the runway. The instruments told them where the runway was, it was up to them to refine that on approach.
 
Here's the opinion of a former colleague of the captain on his expertise, and on possible reasons for the accident.
The colleague had worked with the captain in Malaysia.

...“In Malaysia, there are a lot of thunderstorms, so the captain will have experienced that, but maybe not crosswinds and icy weather," P M said. “On the voice recorder, I can distinctly hear two voices. I know the captain’s voice and he seems very awake and lively on the radio.

“Moderate windshear is reported by the crew on the audio, that would have been very rough. Most pilots would hardly ever experience that in their career. I have only flown during wind shear once or twice."

Although Russian aviation authorities measure wind speed and altitude in metres, as opposed to the imperial system used by the majority of the rest of the world, communication should not have been an issue, P M said.

A shift in the aircraft’s centre of gravity due to it being only a third full, strong gusts, or wind shear, and ice on the tail could have reduced the captain’s control during his second attempt at landing at Rostov-on-Don, the pilot speculated.

Other theories include a possible stall that could have been the cause of the nosedive, as seen in the black-and-white CCTV footage taken near to the crash site.

Full article http://www.thenational.ae/uae/former-colleague-of-flydubai-captain-tells-of-clues-to-crash
 
Laura said:
Niall said:
What are the odds of it dropping out of the sky and impacting just left of the runway it would have landed on but for the fact that it had spent two hours circling the city in an attempt to find a good time to land on that very runway?!

Well, if it is being slammed down by an airburst it doesn't have the time to make the finer adjustments to aim at the runway. The instruments told them where the runway was, it was up to them to refine that on approach.

Ok, so it could have been preparing to land at that point. I thought that what I was seeing in those videos was the plane falling from an altitude that is too high to make the runway, and that it was instead in the middle of doing another overpass of the airport or something.
 
For better or for worse, here's another possibility. One of many.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160320/1036622572/flydubai-crash-russia.html

This should be taken with a grain of salt. But it also cannot be simply ruled out ... out of hand.
A possible "criminal" case.

FWIW.
 
sitting said:
For better or for worse, here's another possibility. One of many.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160320/1036622572/flydubai-crash-russia.html

This should be taken with a grain of salt. But it also cannot be simply ruled out ... out of hand.
A possible "criminal" case.

FWIW.

In a Legal sense, to prioritize the case into a criminal category, adds an additional "tier" of investigative priorities that leave no stone unturned. It's a smart move, in my estimation, considering the circumstances. It's not just an investigation into a plane crash that may have been affected by adverse weather conditions or pilot error/ or both but to also rule out or document any criminal motive, that might have been a contributing factor.

Quote:
During his visit to the crash site, Alexander Bastrykin inspected the work of a team of criminal investigators… and made several orders, including handing the criminal case over to the Investigative Committee’s department dealing with particularly important cases for further investigation," Markin's statement read. http://sledcom.ru/news/item/1023984/
 
TV station Russia 1 transcript last minute talks on the plane came from sources from the team of investigators who analyzed the black box,video:
https://youtu.be/1WFlnOoLwbE
link:
http://news.yahoo.com/pull-russian-tv-airs-final-words-flydubai-jet-084953685.html
 
They're settling on pilot error:

Leaked Flydubai recorder data reveals argument, panic in cockpit before ‘fatal nosedive’

The Flydubai FZ981 crash in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, could have followed the pilots’ failure to manage the landing after taking control of the system, media reveal citing flight data. The final minutes are said to have been full of arguments and screams of terror.

Now that decoding of the flight data recorders of the crashed Boeing is complete, an unnamed source told Russian daily Kommersant that pilot error is now dominating the investigation as the probable cause.

It appears that while trying to gain altitude after an unsuccessful landing attempt in bad weather, one of the pilots pulled the control stick up too much, causing a stall break and an uncontrollable nosedive.

The Interstate Aviation Committee believes that the official results of the decoding will be made public within a week or two.

Meanwhile, according to Kommersant’s sources, the recorder revealed that flight FZ981 had made two attempts to land in automatic mode, and since a veering squall wind hampered the second attempt, the pilot decided to make a third approach for landing in manual mode.

One of the pilots pressed the TOGA (Take off. Go around) button and turned off the autopilot, writes the daily.

Anonymous experts Kommersant talked to believe the pilot did not manage the diving rudder and horizontal stabilizer, which steer the plane in opposite directions – down and up, respectively.

When the pilot pulled up, he put both the rudder and stabilizer in a sharp climb mode, somewhat fighter-jet style, plus enacted the TOGA regime’s retracted flaps, decreasing ascending force. As a result, the aircraft lost speed and got into the beyond-stall angle of approach. All this led to an uncontrollable dive, the experts believe.

At that moment, the voice recorder is said to have registered a conflict between pilots. The pilot that tried to force the aircraft to gain altitude apparently turned the engines to powerful take-off mode, forcing the aircraft to continue its climb.

The other pilot believed the situation was dangerous and apparently did the opposite: he pushed his own control over to bring the Boeing’s nose down and prevent the sweeping up, while yelling at his colleague to stop doing it that way.

“Wait! Where are you flying? Stop! Stop!” a voice on the recorder reportedly yelled.

The pilots’ contrary actions caused the controls of the aircraft to ‘split’: the Boeing 737’s onboard computer was receiving mutually-exclusive commands from the two controls, which are usually operated synchronously. This rendered the plane out of control.

When they felt the plummeting sensation, the crew coordinated their actions, but it was already too late. The Boeing 737-800 was roaring at 325kph downwards at an angle of about 45 degrees. It burst into flames upon collision with the ground, killing all 62 people on board.

During the last seconds before the collision both pilots were screaming with terror, Kommersant reports.

On March 20, Russia’s Investigative Committee named pilot error or technical failure as the prime theories as to the cause of the Flydubai’s Boeing 737-800 crash in Rostov-on-Don on March 19.

It is unclear from the recording which pilot was doing what, Kommersant notes. At first the investigators even believed that only one man was speaking the whole time. Now, to identify the voices of the deceased pilots, the expertise of their former colleagues and even relatives may be needed.
 
It is looking more and more that the pilots made a fundamental error that is normally only seen in student pilots or very low-time pilots.

As we have seen from the video, the plane was in a steep angle downward and at an amazing speed of descent. This is almost always caused by a stall unless there is some major mechanical malfunction of the plane, which is nearly unheard of today. I had made a 'guestimate' of the descent speed by assuming the bottom of the clouds was about five or six hundred feet above the altitude of the field and noting the plane only took about four seconds to hit the ground. This means the plane was going downwards at somewhere around 200 miles an hour.

An interesting fact about planes which most people are not aware is that the listed "stall speed" of any aircraft is only related to steady-state flight. This can be at straight and level or climbing or descending, as long as it is a steady state condition. This can be misleading.

The actuality is that a wing can stall at ANY airspeed, and the thing that determines if a wing will continue to generate lift or stall is the angle of attack of the wing. Wings work to generate lift by forcing the air above the wing to follow a curved path which is longer than the path the air flows on the underside of the wing. Because the air must move faster above the wing, the pressure becomes lower (Bernouli's Principle) and the difference in pressure is what provides the lifting force.

When the wings stall, the airflow over the wings become turbulent and no longer is there a smooth flow. This brings the effective lift to a small fraction of it's original condition - very suddenly too. And as I had mentioned earlier, when approaching stall the drag becomes very high too, and when stalled the drag increases even more. The plane begins to plummet downward very quickly, almost like a free fall. The only thing to do is to put the nose of the plane downward steeply and apply full power available.

It apparently took them several seconds to realize the situation and they were probably way too low and slow to really do anything about it before they crashed. This is a pilot's worst nightmare!

I feel really bad for all those who were aboard the plane that night. I'm sure it was horrible.
 
Not closely related to the very subject of this thread, but plane in Kazakhstan landed on "belly" - all passengers safe and sound:

The incident took place when the Fokker 100 aircraft operated by Kazakh airline ‘Bek Air’, which had departed from Kyzylorda, was landing at Astana International Airport on Sunday morning. The pilots realized the front wheels were malfunctioning when the plane was already in descent.

https://www.rt.com/news/337375-pilots-emergency-landing-astana/
 
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