Potential Food and Energy Shortage Across the World

[Nienna]

@Miracle that would be a great comment to put on that article.

 

[jess]

An interesting video that combines information and health tips. Here are some notes.

This is ALARMING INFO but you need to know...GET READY!
OFF GRID with DOUG & STACY

Related notes

MORGELLONS:
FIRST OBSERVATIONS
Clifford E Carnicom
Aug 12 2006
Edited Aug 16 2006
Copyright 2006 by Clifford E Carnicom and Jan Smith

John Kaness

 

[Miracle]

Not long after the Lexington, Nebraska beef plant closed that produced 7-9% of the Nation's beef supply, JBS workers go on strike at the Greeley facility, which is one of the biggest beef packing plant in the world:

GREELEY, Colo. (AP) — About 3,800 workers for the world’s largest meatpacking company began striking Monday in Colorado, and if they don’t get a new contract soon, already costly beef could become even more expensive for U.S. consumers.

As the sun rose, hundreds of strikers picketed outside the Swift Beef Co. plant in Greeley, owned by JBS USA and one of the largest slaughterhouses in the nation.
...
The first walkout at a U.S. beef slaughterhouse in four decades follows accusations from union officials that the company retaliated against workers and committed other unfair labor practices. The union also said the company offered less than 2% more a year in wages, which is less than inflation in Colorado.
...
The price for 100% ground chuck beef more than doubled over the past two decades from $2.55 to $6.07 per pound, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
...
The Greeley plant has about 6% of the total U.S. beef slaughterhouse capacity, said Abby Greiman, a livestock market adviser for industry consultant Ever.Ag.
...
At the Greeley plant, the company tried to intimidate workers to quit the union in one-on-one meetings, union general counsel Matt Shechter said.

Despite the pressure, 99% of workers voted to authorize the strike, said Kim Cordova, president of the United Food and Commercial Union Local 7.

It’s the first strike at a U.S. slaughterhouse since workers walked out at a Hormel plant in Minnesota in 1985, according to Cordova and Martin. That strike lasted more than a year and included violent confrontations between police and protesters, according to the Minnesota Historical Society.

So as long as the Greeley plant is closed to to ongoing strikes, we're down ~14% of the nation's beef production capacity so far in 2026.

Beef packers are hemorrhaging money, their employees can't pay their bills, and consumers can barely afford their product. Me thinks something is broken here. Not a good sign.

 

[Seppo Ilmarinen]

There seems to be something similar happening with physical vs. futures price divergence in the oil markets, as has been going on with silver market since last autumn. For example Dubai crude, which represents real physical demand from the region, is trading at 30-40 dollar premium compared to Brent and WTI oil price.

Same development is seen in some other oil benchmarks and products that are grounded to physical oil demand and supply tightness in the Middle East and Asia:

In the physical market, the premium for a physical cargo of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude over its paper equivalent rose to almost $38 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Paper oil traders seem to believe the rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and some in his administration that the campaign against Iran is going well and there is no real threat to oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. [...]

It's not just a crude-supply issue that is hurting Asia, it's the emerging tightness in refined products, which is threatening to turn very quickly into a serious emergency for importing nations like Australia, Indonesia ⁠and New Zealand.
Refineries in Asia are cutting processing rates and some countries, such as China, are moving to restrict fuel exports in order to ensure they can meet domestic demand.

This is sending prices for refined products soaring, with the cash differential for diesel hitting a fresh record high of $28.69 a barrel on Wednesday in Singapore.

This price reflects the premium for a physical cargo over the paper price and has surged from just 84 ⁠cents a barrel on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Since WTI (primarily US-produced oil) and Brent (North Sea-produced oil) trade is based on futures that are settled in Western institutions (CME group and Intercontinental Exchange ICE), they have more room for manipulation (e.g based on false expectations that the war is soon over or creating artificial selling pressure of these contracts etc).

Where as some of these other (often non-Western) benchmarks are grounded more in "facts on the ground", e.g what the current production costs, risks, physical demand, and cargo transaction are for oil (some are also traded as futures at CME or ICE, so there's probably overlap and other factors involved too).

Thus, even though Brent and WTI price has risen significantly in short time, prices settled outside the Western financial institutes reflect the true demand (in similar manner as silver is priced in Shanghai vs. Comex). I wonder if in the not-too-distant-future something breaks (April is again around the corner...) as these two competing price mechanisms keep clashing?

 

[Miracle]

Update on the Greeley strike. The workers returned after 3 weeks following a commitment from both sides for in-person negotiations. There is just one issue though. With the plant closed for 3 weeks, slaughter volume decreased nationally, which drove up the price for beef, and beef packers made higher margins.

Meatingplace - In the short term, the strike functioned exactly as expected from a supply standpoint: less production, higher prices and improved packer profitability.
...

“In a different environment, a strike like this would carry a lot more leverage,” said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “But because of the excess capacity we’ve got right now, this is not necessarily a high-leverage time from the standpoint of the workers.”

Peel said the timing of the strike likely works to the company’s advantage, at least in the near term.

“I think this probably does play into JBS’ hand a little bit,” he said. “They can afford to be a little bit patient here and let time work on their side.”
...

The current cattle cycle has created a rare dynamic in which reduced production does not necessarily translate into economic pain for packers.

Instead, it can do the opposite.

“The big issue for packers is excess capacity and the inability to operate anywhere close to maximum,” Peel said. “So all things considered, this is as good a time as it’s ever going to get for them to take some time off.”

While JBS still incurs losses, Peel noted those losses may be less severe under current conditions.

“They’re losing money on the deal, but they’re losing a lot less now,” he said.

The strike has also had broader market implications.

“By taking some additional capacity offline, they’re benefiting the entire industry,” Peel said. “There’s no doubt that’s helping the market right now.”

That aligns with recent data showing improved packer margins and stronger wholesale beef values following the production slowdown.

So the workers go on strike to put pressure on JBS to pay them a livable wages and JBS could really care less since reducing capacity benefits their bottom line.

Let's recap my last few posts for perspective since this is pretty alarming:

1. Beef prices are up 70% at the store level since Covid
   • Consumers can barely afford beef
2. Beef packers are losing money even with that price increase
   • Beef packers are hemorrhaging money
3. Tyson reacts by closing one of the biggest beef plants in the world (7-9% of US packing capacity)
   • Beef packers have to alter market dynamics to make a profit
4. Cattle population vs. US population has reduced ~60% over 55 years
   • Shades of National submission by starvation tactics
5. Senator chuck schumer proposes a bill that reads like a glossed up bailout for meatpackers
   • You can guarantee that the government will improve things 100% of the time.
6. JBS employees go on strike to fight for livable wages (additional 6% of US packing capacity)
   • Employees can't pay their bills
7. The strike has little to no power / has the opposite effect - JBS margins increase
   • Beef packers have no incentive to pay their employees livable wages. This signals that further plant closures are likely and workers will continue to be financially crushed.

Mind you, this is the economic reality of our food supply chain prior to the imminent energy lockdowns and whatever other nonsense is in store.

- "We pretended to work and they pretended to pay us"