Volcanic activity in the region occurred in several stages, drastically altering the geological landscape. Initially, magma intruded into the sedimentary layers, forming various intrusive bodies, such as sills. Later, the eruption style shifted to explosive, resulting in the release of massive amounts of pyroclastic material and the formation of thick volcanic deposits. The culmination of this process was the eruption of colossal volumes of basaltic lava, measured in the hundreds of thousands of cubic kilometers.
The total volume of volcanic rocks, including intrusions, pyroclastic deposits, and lava flows, is estimated to be approximately 3 million cubic kilometers. It is important to note that this figurereflects only the rocks that have survived to the present day, and it can be confidently stated that the initial scale of the eruptions was much greater but has since been eroded. The formation of the Siberian Traps led to colossal emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂),sulfur (SO₂), chlorine (HCl), and other volatile compounds.
These gases significantly intensified the greenhouse effect, causing rapid warming following a volcanic winter. CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere reached 8,000 ppm, which is 20 times higher than current levels. As a result, the temperature of tropical seas rose from 22–25°C to 30°C, and the oceans began to acidify, killing organisms with carbonate skeletons. The total sulfur emission amounted to up to 7800 gigatons, chlorine up to 8700 gigatons, and fluorine up to 13,600 gigatons. Volcanic ash and aerosols blocked sunlight, disrupted photosynthesis, and caused mass deforestation and the collapse of food chains, exacerbating the extinction of both plant and animal species.The ecological crisis of that era underscores the potential scale of consequences even with a gradual eruption of the Siberian plume.
Research indicates that the period of eruptions 250 million years ago was driven by the rise of a mantle plume—a massive magma flow ascending from deep within the Earth beneath the present-day Putorana Plateau. A recurrence of this scenario today would result in the formation of vast lava plateaus, among the largest geological formations on the planet, obliterating nearly all life within thousands of kilometers, encompassing Siberia and neighboring regions. The geological record reveals that such catastrophes, marked by the outpouring of enormous basalt fields, have occurred repeatedly, each time triggering extensive mass extinctions (Fig. 84)
The gradual eruption scenario is comparable to the sudden explosion of the Siberian plume but stretched over time. It can be envisioned as a sequence of volcanoes erupting weekly alongside sudden fissures releasing basaltic lava flows across Western Siberia. Fig. 86 illustrates these processes, with lava flow regions marked in purple.
Lava spread across wide areas in the area of the denser, more stable crust of the East Siberian Platform. In contrast, in Western Siberia—characterized by thinner, younger, and heterogeneous crust—eruptions occurred along elongated depressions or rifts. The map highlights tuff zones, shown in red, composed of cemented pyroclastic fragments and ash. Eruptions in Eastern and Western Siberia would differ significantly. Under Eastern Siberia, magma encounters the dense Archean craton, creating a substantial barrier. As it rises, the magma “digs”into the host rocks, cools, and becomes enriched with volatile components. This leads to explosive eruptions with high ash emissions and the potential formation of acidic, viscous magma.
In Western Siberia, with its thin, young crust, eruptions are expected to predominantly feature the outpouring of fluid basaltic lava.The area expected to be covered by lava flows and tuffs is approximately 7 million km² (2.7 million mi²) across Western and Eastern Siberia, comparable to the size of modern-day Australia. However, the regions subject to degradation are likely to exceed tens of millions of square kilometers.
These territories would experience massive wildfires, erosion caused by acid rain, ashfall, landslides, and lahars carrying volcanic deposits. All of Siberia’s permafrost will be at risk of destruction. It is worth noting that the Taimyr Peninsula, west of the Putorana Plateau, hosts the world’s largest deposits of nickel, copper, and platinum group metals, developed by the company Norilsk Nickel. These deposits are of magmatic origin and formed approximately 250 million years ago during the eruptions of the Siberian Traps magmatic province, which facilitated the creation of unique ore nodes.
The high concentration of nickel in the magmas of that era is likely linked to the transport of materials from Earth’s core to the surface. The ascent of the Siberian magma plume is ongoing, with its acceleration traced to the1998 core shift toward the Taimyr Peninsula, as determined by Dr. Yuri Barkin. In the near future, there is a significant risk of a breakthrough of the Siberian plume near the city of Norilsk—the very location where a similar event occurred 250 million years ago. Next, we will examine the consequences this scenario would have for Russia and the world.
Consequences of a Gradual Breakthrough of the Siberian Plume for Russia
Studies have precisely mapped the locations of asthenospheric melt lenses within the lithosphere of southern Siberia, attributed to the region’s thin crust. However, the northern part of Siberia remains largely unexplored on seismic maps, representing a “white spot” in research on the lower crust and mantle. This lack of data makes it impossible to predict the locations of the initial lava breakthroughs and eruptions of gas-rich magma, particularly given the absence of comprehensive subsurface monitoring in the Siberian plume zone.
The first warning signs of an impending catastrophe are known to include increased seismic activity and localized gas emissions. As magma advances toward the surface, rapid permafrost melting will begin, leading to the destabilization of infrastructure built on permafrost soils. Soil heating may also trigger gas hydrate explosions (methane trapped in ice structures), causing the formation of massive craters and the destruction of settlements. Massive wildfires would become inevitable, driven by methane release, soil overheating, and the emission of volcanic gases. Hydrocarbon deposits in Siberia and coal basins like Kuzbass may ignite, as occurred during the Permian-Triassic period when coal deposits were thermally heated to 600°C(1,112°F).
Eruptions would begin suddenly, affecting multiple points across a vast territory. Earthquakes with magnitudes of 7–8, combined with fissures and faults, would result in lava flows covering hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. Around the lava breakthroughs, toxic emissions would cause mass fatalities among plants, animals, and humans, forming a deadly “cocktail” in the atmosphere. Within the first days, millions of people would perish. Volcanic ash would destroy transportation networks, accumulating on roads and railways, reducing visibility, and devastating infrastructure. Aviation would cease entirely due to the danger posed by ash to aircraft engines.
The melting of permafrost would exacerbate the crisis further: transportation routes, pipelines, buildings, and infrastructure would begin to collapse. Many cities would lose access to water, food, and electricity supplies, triggering a humanitarian crisis. Mass evacuation would be impossible in much of the eruption zone, as lava, gases, fires, and acid rain would render transportation routes unusable. Panic would engulf millions of people, and efforts to relocate the population of Siberia would lead to social instability and widespread unrest. The country’s economy would suffer catastrophic losses. Oil, gas, coal, diamonds, and metal production would cease due to the physical destruction of infrastructure, halting industrial operations and creating shortages of raw materials and energy. The volcanic activity would devastate the region’s natural resources, including oil and coal reserves, eliminating critical economic assets for the nation.
Decades after the eruption, Siberia would remain an ecological disaster zone. The catastrophe would irreversibly alter Russia’s geography, economy, and society. Only 25% of the country’s territory would remain habitable, but it would face immense pressure from environmental and social crises. Economic strongholds, historical landmarks, and much of the nation’s natural wealth would be lost, rendering Siberia uninhabitable for modern civilization.