Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

youlik said:
You can warn than a week in advance, because there is no counteraction anyway.
There may be a curious situation with these warnings. To "warn" all ports and airports of the most stubborn countries in their desire to "defeat Russia on the battlefield" at once, and not to strike. However, in order for this to work 100%, you will first have to significantly "take out" a couple of objects, otherwise many still think that "Putin is bluffing." The endless Russian red lines, crossed by the West with absolutely no consequences, are affecting.
Можно предупреждать и за неделю, ведь противодействия все равно не предвидится.
Может сложиться любопытная ситуация с этими предупреждениями. "Предупредить" сразу все порты и аэропорты наиболее упорных в стремлении "победить Россию на поле боя" стран, а удары не наносить. Правда для того, чтобы это сработало на 100% придется сначала показательно "вынести" пару объектов, а то многие по прежнему думают, что "Путин блефует". Сказываются бесконечные российские красные линии, пересеченные западом совершенно без последствий.
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As I understand it, the majority of those “red lines” were not called “red lines” by Putin, but rather by the western press. Anything Putin advises against is called a red line by the western media. This incident is in fact one of the very few times that Putin himself has drawn a red line. I may be mistaken, but I’ve checked a lot of his statements and I can’t find much evidence that he actually said “this is a red line for us” more than twice. Please provide examples of others and I’ll happily believe you. I just can’t find them and Andrei Martyanov said that he’d not issued more than a couple all these years.
 
I don't think that's plasma, probably low cloud base and glow because its filmed with night infrared camera. The key is in its manuevarbility at high speed. It flies fast and can avoid any anti aerial defence. The best that US have is THAAD system which can reach height on which missiles like that Oreshnik fly, but don't have enough speed and cant outmaneuver them (its only around 3x speed of sound for THAAD, and more than 10x for Oreshnik).

Imagine just one salvo like that on, for example, aircraft carrier group. It can literally obliterate any fleet or army in a couple of seconds.

And they also destroyed with Kinzhals a battery of Patriot in the vicinity, just for the peanuts.... :D
 
Evan said:
As I understand it, the majority of those “red lines” were not called “red lines” by Putin, but rather by the western press. Anything Putin advises against is called a red line by the western media. This incident is in fact one of the very few times that Putin himself has drawn a red line. I may be mistaken, but I’ve checked a lot of his statements and I can’t find much evidence that he actually said “this is a red line for us” more than twice. Please provide examples of others and I’ll happily believe you. I just can’t find them and Andrei Martyanov said that he’d not issued more than a couple all these years.
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I am ready to agree that most of the "red lines" were not drawn by Putin personally, but we have a large number of those who draw such lines besides Putin, and it is important to understand here that the general impression has already been created that it is possible to cross such lines completely without consequences. I also admit that this impression was deliberately created by certain forces in order to increase tension, but the fact is the fact and this general impression will have to be broken.

Я готов согласиться с тем, что большинство "красных линий" не были проведены лично Путиным, но у нас есть большая куча тех, кто проводит такие линии помимо Путина и здесь важно понять, что уже создано общее впечатление о том, что пересекать такие линии можно вполне без последствий. Я также допускаю, что это впечатление намеренно создано определенными силами в целях увеличения напряженности, но факт есть факт и это общее впечатление надо будет ломать.
 
Joe said:
The videos of the Russian missile(s) arriving this morning in were obviously difficult to interpret due to the video quality, but we noticed very high speed and what some people were calling 'plasma' effects, due to the fact that each missile seemed to 'glow' along it's entire length as it passed through the air before impact. Common or garden missiles do now 'glow' in this way, compare the Iranian missile attack last month on Israel for comparison.

View attachment 103779

This evening Putin said that the missiles used were 'new' and they were fired as part of a real-world 'test'. The video evidence suggests that the missiles carried relatively small (if any) warheads (relatively small explosive impact on the ground). This would be consistent with Putin's statement that they were a 'test'. Indeed, given their alleged speed of 12,500km/h, the kinetic force alone could do significant damage to a precise target.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859714919987593601

According to the Pentagon spokesperson today, while the US is concerned about Russia's use of "a new type of weapon", specifically, "an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile", Ukraine has withstood attacks by Russia with significantly larger warheads" [presumably referring to FAB 1500 and 3000 glide bombs that Russia has been using extensively in recent months].

So, officially, there's nothing here for the Pentagon to really worry about. That is, of course, 'officially'. Behind closed doors, the idea that Russia has successfully used a "new" and "experimental" missile against Ukraine is probably causing slightly more concern. Because it seems clear, at this point, that today's events were more about a showcasing of what the Russian military can do, both to to Ukraine and to its erstwhile 'allies' if they cross a certain 'red line'. Where, precisely, that line is perhaps even the Russians cannot say right now. But we'll all definitely know it when it's crossed.

Uneasy times for sure...
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I think there are a number of options of what kind of missiles the russians just used in Ukraine (probably for the first time in real combat):

Cosmos said:
Very good and interesting summary. I see it similarly although I think 2 minutes is way too fast, even for the Russians.

While the new hypersonic Russian weapons are very fast, they still take much longer than 2 Minutes to reach any place on earth. As far as I remember, Putin presented 6 different new types of weapons and missiles in 2018. The fastest is the „Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle“, which travels at a speed of 20-27 Mach, which translates into 24,695 km/h - 33,339 km/h. The circumference of earth is 40,075 km and half of it is 20,037.5 km. So, even that fastest hypersonic weapon of the Russians can reach the farthest target on the globe (20,037.5 km away) at the maximum speed of 27 Mach, theoretically in 36 Minutes. But in the case of the Avangard, it first needs to be transported via AN ICBM type rocket (a new supersonic weapon below can do it too!) high up into the earth atmosphere on a ballistic trajectory, which likely adds a couple of minutes to that count. And the range of it is uncertain too. Some speculate it is over 6000 km.

The second fastest of those new weapons is RS-28 Sarmat, with a maximum speed of Mach 20.7 = 25,560 km/h (it can deliver an unspecified number of „Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles“!). It has no range limitation.

The third-fastest missile is Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, with a speed between Mach 10 – Mach 12 (12,300–14,700 km/h) and a range of 2000 km.

In addition, a yet unspecified unmanned underwater vehicle was presented which could be some kind of Poseidon in addition to a Laser weapon with the name Peresvet. The max speed of the water vehicle is unclear, but it will likely be around Mach 1 - Mach 2. And the laser weapon obviously can't be counted to the hypersonic missile arsenal and likely can't reach very far targets.

Which leaves one missile, the 9M730 Burevestnik, which might be one of the most interesting ones, since it doesn't follow a ballistic trajectory, is reportedly also hypersonic (Mach 1 or more) and has practically no range limit because it is powered by a small nuclear reactor and can carry a nuclear warhead and can't be intercepted. Theoretically, it should be able to fly "forever" but from what Putin said it doesn't seem to be meant to do that although it theoretically could. So theoretically, if they launch enough of those Burevestnik missiles and let them fly "forever" at the same time in such a way that any single one of those missiles can hit any target on earth within 2 minutes, it might be possible. But I guess that is rather unlikely because something has to eventually wear out in the missile, and it would be quite dangerous with a nuclear warhead.

Having said that, Putin made it clear in that 2018 speech that they have more weapon systems either under development or not disclosed yet. And here we are, 4 years later. So, it could very well be that they have much more up their sleeves...

Just thinking out laud: Theoretically, if they would be able to have a Burevestnik type missile "fly forever" while not having a nuclear warhead, they could launch enough of those and let them fly over the globe constantly and forever which could end the era of "nobody wins a nuclear war" since they could be able to stop any nuclear weapon launch shortly after departure! It could also mean the end of any risk for a nuclear war altogether! Which would be a huge deal. But understandably, they would need to find a very safe way to make those missiles useless in the case of malfunctions and other such risks (like flying them high up in the atmosphere and explode them). Which can never be 100% safe anyway.

Having said that, I also think that what we are witnessing right now is quite unprecedented in known human history and I keep wondering if what we are seeing is exactly what the C's have predicted and kept saying for many years, just in ways we never would have expected to play out!

What is happening is very interesting, that's for sure!
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Notice that there are a number of OFFICIAL missile systems the russians have, that probably in some ways come close to “comet“ like behaviors because of speed and other factors. It could also be a secret system, although I think it is probably more likely one of those systems officially mentioned above. The secret ones might come at a later point. Got to have a number aces of up your sleeve for further “escalations“.
 
Update:

Putin just announced (via the russian embassy in germany on x), that the weapon that was used is called/written „Oreschnik“ in german:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859919443200983433

Added: He also says that the weapon travels at Mach 10 (that is 2,5-3 kilometers per second) and can’t be countered/intersected by any system.
 
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The Mysterious Ballistic Missile Russia Fired At Ukraine Was Created By Sneaky Treaty-Dodgers

After warning U.S. officials of its intention to launch, Russia lobbed a mysterious new ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine early Thursday morning, damaging buildings and injuring potentially dozens of people.

Initially mistaken for a 3,400-mile intercontinental ballistic missile, minus the nuclear warheads for its six independent reentry vehicles, the mystery weapon turned out to be something else: an intermediate-range ballistic missile, or IRBM.

Its name, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is “Oreshnik.” That’s Russian for “hazelnut tree.”

Sabrina Singh, the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, described the Oreshnik as a variant of Russia’s RS-26 ballistic missile. The RS-26 is a 40-ton, solid-fueled missile that straddles two treaty categories.

Depending on the angle at which it’s fired, the RS-26 could travel slightly more than 3,400 miles. That would make it an ICBM. But it’s more comfortably an IRBM that ranges fewer than 3,400 miles.

The problem for the RS-26’s designers was that, until 2019, the United States and Russia were both party to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which banned the testing and deployment of missiles traveling between 310 and 3,400 miles.

Capable of carrying a nuclear payload and also capable of striking with minimal warning, IRBMs are uniquely destabilizing—hence the treaty. But Russia secretly continued developing missiles in this category, ultimately prompting the United States to quit the INF regime—over some objections from arms-control advocates—in 2019. Russia soon followed suit.

To avoid openly violating the INF Treaty during pre-2019 testing, the Russians angled the RS-26 to lob it just past the 3,400-mile treaty threshold—even though the missile’s design favored intermediate rather than intercontinental range.

That the new Oreshnik is apparently a version of the RS-26 underscores that the former isn’t necessarily an ICBM—and the latter almost certainly isn’t one. Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert with the Federation of American Scientists, said the Oreshnik is “kind of funny” owing to its convoluted origins.

No one is actually laughing, of course. Putin clearly ordered his forces to launch the Oreshnik at Dnipro in retaliation for Ukraine’s own deep strikes targeting arms depots and command posts in western Russia. The United States, the United Kingdom and France recently authorized Ukraine to use its best American, British and French munitions in those strikes.

www.forbes.com

The Mysterious Ballistic Missile Russia Fired At Ukraine Was Created By Sneaky Treaty-Dodgers

The Oreshnik is based on the RS-26 ballistic missile, which narrowly skirted a treaty ban.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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Sneaky Russians. :-)
 
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