Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[thorbiorn]

If the warhead of the Oreshnik is very, very hot, how much heat might it hold? Since it most likely consists of different components, we would need to know the specific heat capacity of each and how warm they are. While some may reach a temperature of 3900, that is most likely not all. It is complicated to evaluate the total amount of stored heat in the missile on impact, but worth trying.

Using this calculator I found some values for the heat capacity of common materials:
Ice at -10 C (solid): 2.05 J/g*K
Water at 25 C: 4.1813 J/g*K
Water at 100 C (gas): 2.05 J/g*K
Animal tissue: 3.5 J/g*K (A body contains mostly water, though for humans it depends on sex and constitution, women are on average less watery, and so are people with a significant fatty tissue percentage. )

The values for metals are compared to the heat capacity of water low, mostly:
Tungsten: 0.134 J/g*K
Uranium: 0.116 J/g*K
Armour penetrating ammunition can be made from heavy metals similar to the two above.

As tank armour improved during World War II, anti-vehicle rounds began to use a smaller but dense penetrating body within a larger shell, firing at a very-high muzzle velocity. Modern penetrators are long rods of dense material like tungsten or depleted uranium (DU) that further improve the terminal ballistics.

Lead (solid) 0.127 J/g*K
Bismuth (solid) 0.133 J/g*K
Silver: 0.233 J/g*K
Copper (solid): 0.385 J/g*K
Steel (solid): 0.466 J/g*K
Titanium (solid) 0523 J/g*K
Aluminium (solid): 0.897 J/g*K
Sodium (solid): 1.23 J/g*K
Lithium (solid): 3.58 J/g*K
Lithium at 181 C (liquid): 4.379 J/g*K

Then there is are the heat capacity of non-metals:
Glass, silica (solid): 0.84 J/g*K
Diamond: 0.509 J/g*K
Brick (solid): 0.84 J/g*K

Air (at sea level): 1.00 J/g*K (The mass of 1 liter of air at 15 C is listed as 1.255 g. Air consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen and the values of both are similar, but with the first being slightly higher than the second)

If ceramic materials are used in the construction of the missiles, it turns out that for some ceramic metals, the heat capacity increases sharply with the temperature, which even to begin with is higher than for many metals. For an idea, compare that of silica with that of tungsten or iron.

The abstract of this paper Thermal Conductivity and Specific Heat Capacity of Different Compositions of Yttria Stabilized Zirconia-Nickel Mixtures reads:

Ceramic-metal composites also known as functionally gradient materials (FGM) are composite materials which are fabricated in order to have a gradual variation of constituent materials’ thermal and mechanical properties so as to have a smooth variation of the material properties in order to improve the overall performance and reduce the thermal expansion mismatch between ceramic and metal. The objective of the study is to determine the thermal properties of various percentage composition of Yttria stabilized zirconia-Nickel mixtures for application as thermal barrier coating materials in automotive turbocharger turbine volute casing. Specific heat capacity of different percentage composition of ceramic-metal powder composite were determined using DSC822 differential scanning calorimeter (Mettle Tolodo, Switzerland) at temperature ranges between 303K to 873K. While the thermal conductivity of the different percentage composition of ceramic-metal composite structures were determined using P5687 Cussons thermal conductivity apparatus (Manchester, UK) which uses one-dimensional steady-state heat conduction principle. The results have indicated that the specific heat capacity of the FGM increases sharply with an increase in temperature while the thermal conductivity of the FGM decreases with an increase in temperature. These results strongly agree with the theoretical and experimental values as well as the rule of mixtures obtainable in literature, which indicated the suitability of these FGM materials for thermal barrier coating applications.

If the thermal conductivity is low at high temperatures, a metal ceramic of the above type would also give off the heat slowly. An everyday example of differences in thermal conductivity between different materials is that we can hold a cup of warm tea more easily if the cup is made of ceramics than if it made of stainless steel, because steel conducts heat better than ceramics. Although on its own the heat conductivity is low of metal ceramics what happens if they are crushed and mixed with other components on impact?

Using the data to calculate the accumulated heat energy in a 100 kg warhead
I am not sure about how to make a good model, using the data above, to evaluate the accumulated heat energy in the warhead, because there is so much we don't know, but what is lost from trying? So here we go:

Assume first that the warhead has a mass of 100 kg (100,000 g) and an average heat capacity of 1 J/g*K which is higher than one would expect for many metals and silica, but still includes the possibility of a sharp increased heat capacity of some ceramic metals.
Next assume that the average temperature of the warhead is 1000 C above the temperature of the environment, this is more than most electronics can sustain, but if it is well insulated form more hot parts, who knows?

Inserting these numbers using the formula for heat, we can estimate the stored energy,
Q = mc ΔT where, Q= heat, m = mass of the body, c = specific heat, and ΔT = temperature difference.
This gives inserting the previous values,
Q=100,000g * 1J/g*K * 1000K
The above gives
Q = 100,000,000 J which can also be written as 100 *10^6 J or 100 MJ
If we add 100 MJ of stored heat energy to the estimated kinetic energy of 200 MJ, as estimated in the earlier post, there is a total of 300 MJ. It is enough to evaporate all the water in a body, about 150 MJ according to this calculation of the energy assuming the initial temperature is 37 degrees.
The Specific Heat Capacity of water is approximately 4.185 J/g°C
From 37 to 100 degrees C, there are 63 degrees, one gram of water at 37 degrees heated to 100 would require 63*4.185 J/g°C=264 J
Add to this the energy needed to evaporate the water 2260 J
From 37 degrees Celsius to vapor requires 2524 J For one kg we need, 2.524 MJ
Assuming the body of a man consists of 60 % water and the person weighs a 100 kg then there would be 60 kg to evaporate. This would require 60* 2.524 MJ or roughly 150 MJ, and half for a person of 50 kg (30 kg of water).

However it is not sufficient for an outright cremation. allegedly 1,400 -2,500 MJ according to this Quora answer

This ends all the calculations and estimates. From future observations it will be possible to make adjustments, but already now there is a rough idea.

Reflection
After the process of working on the problem, I woke up wondering if there actually are people in power, in the military industrial complex, and among active duty officers who would press for provoking Russia just to make sure it shows more cards, including using the weapons it has, some of which they are unable to create themselves, but would like to copy and make too? No matter the underlying motives, in the process of pressing for escalation they cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands fo people, and risk the lives of millions and billions. They are completely irresponsible.

 

[taratai]

If that theory is correct, it is strange that Putin is making it easier to blame impacts on Russia by comparing the impact of the Oreshnik to a large meteor:

It's not strange if he's not aware of an incoming meteor bombardment. I don't think many people in power have even a faintest clue about it, and those who are aware, don't know when exactly it can happen. It might not happen in our lifetimes, or it might happen in a year or two.

Plus, he is influenced by higher density forces and/or picking up traces of information about incoming meteors just as much as everyone else. He is not a god. And he might get glimpses from the future without realizing it.

However it is not sufficient for an outright cremation. allegedly 1,400 -2,500 MJ according to this Quora answer

We know about cases where people got completely dustified in their homes, leaving no trace other than a charred spot, and sometimes their feet on the ground: spontaneous human combustion. And that involves electric current, which causes plasma.

To me, Putin talking about dustification and meteor-like behavior confirms that plasma is indeed at work here, which means that, unless someone here is good at plasma physics, we have absolutely no clue what the impact of such projectile would be. Perhaps the point of it is that it doesn't even require an active warhead to cause massive destruction - the plasma somehow causes the destructive force (which might also involve creating brief bleedthroughs, similar to meteors).

Perhaps we'll know for sure when this weapon is used again...

 

[Cosmos]

Putin also stated something I haven’t thought about but which makes sense:

When I speak of improvement, it primarily concerns the balance between range and warhead.

The greater the range, the smaller the warhead; conversely, the shorter the range, the more potent the warhead. The system is capable of lifting a greater payload in this scenario, that’s the crux of it. For targets at varying distances, different missile types are required, or at least, distinct configurations of these missiles, specifically the warhead equipment. This is an area requiring attention. It is not a straightforward task, and it will likely necessitate additional research and development work, etc.

So it looks like: If the amount of warheads is the same in two different Oreshnik missiles, that the one that is targeting a target that is further away then the other, that the weight of the warheads in that missile is then reduced and therefore the destructiveness compared to the other one is reduced as well. But since it seem like one Oreshnik missile can hold/deliver up to 36 warheads that you can get around that by reducing that number while making the remaining ones heavier: So you can make one single warhead more destructive at long ranges with the downside that you have less warheads to deliver/deploy in one missile.

 

[Cosmos]

I'd say the anti-gravity tech's purpose is to get the missile to hypersonic speed as fast as possible after launch, thereby making it much more difficult to shoot down. The weakness of standard ICBMs is that they take time after launch to reach hypersonic speed, making them vulnerable to shoot-down.

That would be my guess as well. If so, that might be one reason why other countries don’t come even close to those speeds and destructive capabilities and that the Russians are rather confident that it will take them quite a while to catch up.

 

[thorbiorn]

This ends all the calculations and estimates. From future observations it will be possible to make adjustments, but already now there is a rough idea.

To me, Putin talking about dustification and meteor-like behavior confirms that plasma is indeed at work here, which means that, unless someone here is good at plasma physics, we have absolutely no clue what the impact of such projectile would be. Perhaps the point of it is that it doesn't even require an active warhead to cause massive destruction - the plasma somehow causes the destructive force (which might also involve creating brief bleedthroughs, similar to meteors).

Perhaps we'll know for sure when this weapon is used again...

I had not seen the released pictures before I posted the estimates, but the rough idea and calculations must be wrong by one or more orders of magnitude. The estimates may not be entirely wrong by themselves and seen from a classical perspective, just as they may help to argue for the position that the new weapons are indeed extraordinary. From the pictures and the size of the craters it might be possible to evaluate the involved energy. For that we need to know a bit more.