Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[thorbiorn]

The Ukrainian offensive
Southfront video on TG, explain that the Russian and alliance forces are pressed in several locations. The Military Summary said that the UAF launched an offensive a few days ago and that the frontline in the South is unstable. Ukrainian sources claim they have retaken some areas, and there is evidence this has happened, including an area that has been under control for many months. There are indications that both the Russians and the Ukrainian are moving equipment in the Kharkov area, where Izium is a strategic point. A map shows that Izium is in danger of being encircled.


The UAF page writes, and this is translated from Ukrainian:

As a result of the successful actions of the partisan movement, in cooperation with the artillery of the Defense Forces, enemy units have significant problems with logistics support in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region.

From a Russian source near Izium the impression was that there are groups of saboteurs that are activated when an offensive operation is going on, thus increasing problems from behind.

Repairing damaged military equipment
Over the week, I saw a video about how equipment is being captured and repaired. There was one guy whose tank had been hit three times, but he was with his tank and said it would soon run again. What this means is that the number of lost equipment can not be taken for their value. Equipment may be counted in the statistics of either side as hit and made dysfunctional, but the same equipment can sometimes be repaired and therefore if hit next time, it will be counted again.

Europe-US relation as seen from the perspective of Tatyana Montyan
Tatyana Montyan, (TG) shared an image and wrote a comment which has her unusual blend of seriousness, humour, irony and sarcasm:

"We were born to make a fairy tale come true," was sung in a good Soviet song. Well, now the US authorities live as if they were born to make the most mocking memes in their address come true. Just the other day I published a picture (#МОНТЯН! ), in which the girl-America, tells her friend-Europe that she does not mind that she froze to death for the sake of Ukraine.

And here you are: White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said at a briefing that the United States is ready to suspend Russia's exports of energy resources. "Our president foresaw this scenario, we have been preparing for this for months," Jean—Pierre assured journalists.

The humor of the situation is that the suspension of Russia's energy supplies will not affect America in any way. And it will affect Europe, which in such a situation will have to freeze non—exclusively - if not to death, then very significantly. And now it turns out that in the USA the freezing of Europe was foreseen and, as it turns out, they are quite ready for it. Just like in the picture, yeah!

It would be interesting to know how the States prepared for the shutdown and bankruptcy of European enterprises? Have you printed another batch of your wrappers for the mass sale of European assets on the cheap? But I have long said, including to my European friends, that they are essentially the same American colony as Ukraine, only richer and more civilized — and they did not believe. Well, here comes the time of awareness and acceptance.

I wonder what the Europeans themselves think about such sensitivity of the overseas partner? However, we will most likely never find out, except from the next drain of some diplomatic correspondence like those arranged by Assange. But #Assange is now in a British prison and awaiting extradition to the United States, where he faces up to 170 years in prison or even the death penalty.

Two articles in German about the US strategy to weaken Germany/EU
There is, With help from The Green, the US plans the destruction of German businesses
Translated in this post:

The USA plans to destroy the German economy

Another article in German on the same topic.

 

[Chaze]

Putin’s drive to keep history alive is probably one of his more admirable traits.

One day, I would love to go through and collect the transcripts of his in depth speeches regarding history and put them together to see how his understanding of it has molded him into who he is today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568232466720198656

“They are mocking history, and cynically betraying their own fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers.

For Russia, all of this is unthinkable. We are the flesh and blood of our heroes.

The restructured memorial to the defenders of the Donbas, along with the courage of our soldiers, officers and militas, serve as a warning to all those who have renounced their ancestors and forgotten the lessons of history.”

 

[PERLOU]

De notre ami M.CYAN, merci d'avoir partagé :
Condoléances de Poutine à la famille royale :
https://www.rt.com/russia/562469-putin-queen-elizabet..
« Les événements les plus importants de l'histoire moderne du Royaume-Uni sont inséparablement liés au nom de Sa Majesté. Pendant de nombreuses décennies, Elizabeth II a légitimement joui de l'amour et du respect de ses sujets, ainsi que de l'autorité sur la scène mondiale", a déclaré Poutine, souhaitant à Charles III "courage et persévérance" face à cette " perte lourde et irréparable".
"Je vous demande de transmettre les mots de sincère sympathie et de soutien aux membres de la famille royale et à tout le peuple de Grande-Bretagne", a ajouté le président russe.

Poutine présente ses condoléances à la mort de la reine Elizabeth


From our friend M.CYAN, thank you for sharing:

Putin's condolences to the royal family:

Putin sends condolences upon Queen Elizabeth’s death

Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his condolences over Queen Elizabeth’s death

www.rt.com

“The most important events in modern British history are inseparably linked to Her Majesty's name. For many decades Elizabeth II rightfully enjoyed the love and respect of her subjects, as well as authority on the world stage," Putin said, wishing Charles III "courage and perseverance" in the face of this " heavy and irreparable loss".

“I ask you to convey the words of sincere sympathy and support to the members of the royal family and to all the people of Great Britain,” added the Russian president.

 

[thorbiorn]

The Ukrainian offensive
Southfront video on TG, explain that the Russian and alliance forces are pressed in several locations.

From a video posted this morning: Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 09.09.2022. Morning Of Local Time I made this screenshot, where the green line is the frontline, before the offensive, between Kharkov and Izium.

 

[anartist]

From a video posted this morning: Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 09.09.2022. Morning Of Local Time I made this screenshot, where the green line is the frontline, before the offensive, between Kharkov and Izium.
View attachment 63767

One can never say for sure, and I don't have military experience, but it appears that it may be a cauldron in the making.

 

[Michael B-C]

One can never say for sure, and I don't have military experience, but it appears that it may be a cauldron in the making.

That may eventually come to pass but right now the Russian's have seemingly badly dropped the ball and allowed the Ukrainians to do what they haven't once managed before - launch a successful counter offensive, handing them a significant propaganda and battleground victory just at the wrong time. It seems that there were no regular Russian army units present in the region holding teh territory just some lightly armed militia and the Ukrainians with a force no larger than 9,000 men have rolled over the countryside at speed re taking villages and towns that were captured by the Russians a long way back. There is much angry talk coming from Russia that people in this region are now at serious risk of viscous reprisals for collaboration and that Putin and his softly softyly approach in maintaining the light-weight special operation mantra is leaving the Russian forces in Ukraine vulnerable to the no-holds-barred all in war that the NATO backed Ukis are fighting. There is also talk that the leadership - including Putin - have taken their eye off the ball whilst away at wargames in the far east. Whatever the case, unless the Russians pile in fast and sweep this back, its the first serious set back for sometime and its clearly a grave error of judgment. You cannot fight war like an exercise in legalistic diplomacy. You fight to win and after that, then perhaps starts the diplomacy.

 

[SOTTREADER]

That may eventually come to pass but right now the Russian's have seemingly badly dropped the ball and allowed the Ukrainians to do what they haven't once managed before - launch a successful counter offensive, handing them a significant propaganda and battleground victory just at the wrong time. It seems that there were no regular Russian army units present in the region holding teh territory just some lightly armed militia and the Ukrainians with a force no larger than 9,000 men have rolled over the countryside at speed re taking villages and towns that were captured by the Russians a long way back. There is much angry talk coming from Russia that people in this region are now at serious risk of viscous reprisals for collaboration and that Putin and his softly softyly approach in maintaining the light-weight special operation mantra is leaving the Russian forces in Ukraine vulnerable to the no-holds-barred all in war that the NATO backed Ukis are fighting. There is also talk that the leadership - including Putin - have taken their eye off the ball whilst away at wargames in the far east. Whatever the case, unless the Russians pile in fast and sweep this back, its the first serious set back for sometime and its clearly a grave error of judgment. You cannot fight war like an exercise in legalistic diplomacy. You fight to win and after that, then perhaps starts the diplomacy.

Amen indeed.

Whilst of course Russia is not to be messed with, there's an appearance that they are lacking in that final blow. That final touch that truly puts the enemy down and brings this whole matter to an end.

The worry is the assumption that by doing things in the right way, you will be assured of victory. One isn't actually assured of victory until it arrives and is the reality of the moment. Until that day, no matter how close it may appear to be, it can easily and as quickly recede and fade away. Fortune is not to be trifled with.

 

[thorbiorn]

One can never say for sure, and I don't have military experience, but it appears that it may be a cauldron in the making.

That is what some are hoping, but is it realistic?
I went back to this post by @youlik with an article by Ischenko, which you can find on this page:

But a change in tactics (moving to deep breakthroughs) would result in a dramatic increase in Russian casualties. At a time when military affairs are again (as in the Middle Ages) the domain of professionals, narrow specialists, constantly improving their speciality, we cannot afford the luxury of losing thousands of Russian soldiers and officers.

What happened between Izium and Kharkov is a deep breakthrough, it makes the frontline longer, and a defender with a reduced number of people may be more vulnerable, although there is a risk of a cauldron for the offender, if the defender can manage enough people to close the cauldron.

The west may not have ammunition forever, but if they as in Germany don't mind putting their own citizens at risk, they may be tempted to send ammunition over from their own more recent stocks, while placing orders for fresh supplies. This impression would fit with recent images of western artillery being shipped into Ukraine through Poland. German self-propelled Howitzers, work probably just fine without old ammunition from Warsaw pact stocks.

In general:

Usually in the course of combat operations there comes a turning point when one of the armies suddenly loses faith in victory, its spirit breaks down and it disintegrates, ceasing to resist. Sometimes such a breakdown occurs on the brink of victory, and an almost broken enemy, knowing that he has exhausted all options for resistance, cannot believe his luck when he sees a fleeing and surrendering victorious enemy. Mostly, however, the lack of spirit has very tangible causes. Units are losing combat effectiveness and faith in victory because of high casualties and supply failures.

And about the UA army:

The disintegration of the army and the collapse of the front can happen earlier. Psychological fatigue from war usually sets in suddenly and no one can say what has so disastrously affected yesterday’s still quite combat-ready troops that today they are fleeing in droves to surrender. Usually it is a complex of elusive causes.

I don't think one should underestimate the ability of the Western governments to scale up their production, if they want to, just as it was done both in WWI and WWII. For the US, prolonging the war, if they can succeed, is probably important. A long war helps it to control the EU and avoid that Europe will join up with Russia any time soon.

In Europe, growth in the awareness of what is happening, and the underlying causes is a slow, fragmented and painful process for many. Some may never grasp much, just as the 9/11 official with a few Arabs and Osama bin Laden, is still triple A fact-checked in the minds of a large segment.

There was a recent article in Russian.
“Freeze, freeze, wolf tail”: Putin spoke about the future of Europe without Russian gas

Russia will not supply energy resources to Europe if it is unprofitable. This was announced on Wednesday by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin during his speech at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum.

According to the head of state, Western countries are not in a position to dictate their terms. At the same time, Russia is ready to continue to comply with contractual obligations.

“We will not supply anything outside of contracts. We will not do anything forced. And we will only have one thing left - how to say in the well-known Russian fairy tale 'Cold, freeze, wolf's tail.'​

​

Recall that earlier the president said that after the pandemic, the crises in the economy did not go away. According to him, the West continues the sanctions fever. ■

The story is that a fox convinced a wolf it could catch fish by dipping the tail in an ice hole. Later the old couple living nearby came, but the wolf could not get out as the tail was frozen into the ice.

There are different ending to the story. In one, the fox remains an unpunished manipulator. In another, it also gets into trouble and looses its tail too, as if to bring home the point to children (and adults?) that stealing and cheating, as the fox does, leads to a bad outcome. In a third, the old grandfather teaches the wolf how to catch fish.

Some commentators discuss who the fox is and who the wolf, while it is not clear, some think US is the fox, and the wolf is Europe. In the story, the wolf appears as the most stupid of the two.

Apparently, Vladimir Putin mentioned the tale both in October 2021 and recently. Here is an image in Russian, but you get the idea from the image itself.

 

[flashgordonv]

Here is an interesting analysis from Big Serge. Paints a slightly different picture. Good to get different perspectives.

Ukraine Counterattacks!

Please Remain Calm

bigserge.substack.com

 

[Search]

I checked the web about the 4142 Law in Ukraine. It is called The Law on the public health system.

There are plenty of misinformation. I have few sources which looks more accurate and more closer to the truth, that I will share later on.

There are plenty of rubbish, totally the same publication.

Here is one source/website.
IMO, it is accurate to some extend, as far it is free of choice to be vaccinated or not.
Here is an article.
It is part of the text that was translated, I made it in deepl translate, you can check the whole text. Translator is pretty much accurate.

They gave another interesting links, i will attach them in the next post.


"Draft law 4142 actually gives carte blanche to the Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Health" - public activist
Interview with Veronika Sidorenko, Head of the NGO "Vaccination: Free Choice"

Draft Law 4142 "On the Public Health System" is perhaps the most scandalous in the healthcare sector over the past ten years. Vaccine skeptics see in it, first of all, "multiplication by zero" of the principle of informed consent and discrimination based on vaccine status, anti-corruption activists see huge corruption risks and the possibility of laundering billions from the budget, entrepreneurs see new costs and grounds for fines, and activists who protect the rights of patients see the destruction of the entire health care system, which is currently functioning somehow. Despite the protests of the public and the negative conclusion of the State Expert Committee on the third attempt, the bill 4142 was voted in the first reading and... that's all for now. They started talking about it again when the NSDC spoke against it. Moreover, its actual co-author - Viktor Liashko - now heads the Ministry of Health.

Why is this bill so important and what awaits us in case of its adoption? Veronika Sidorenko, head of the NGO "Vaccination: Free Choice", told GreenPost about this.

- Tell us, where did 4142 come from and what threatens Ukrainians?

- Let's start with the fact that the two laws proposed to be abolished by this draft law ("On Protection of the Population from Infectious Diseases" and "On Ensuring Sanitary and Epidemic Welfare") have existed since the 1990s and early 2000s. Until 2020, during the period of validity of these laws, there were no officially declared epidemics in Ukraine - only outbreaks of diseases, mostly expected (for example, cyclical outbreaks of measles in 2000, 2006, 2012, 2018). Nevertheless, since the end of 2017, medical reform began to be implemented, within the framework of which the sanitary service was abolished, and pressure on unvaccinated children and their parents began. At first, it was through letters and verbal threats, and sometimes physical exclusion of healthy children from educational institutions. Then there were attempts to ban the issuance of certificates to children without one or more vaccinations. Although the relevant order of the Ministry of Health has not been issued, we still receive numerous reports that doctors in public clinics (and sometimes in private ones) refuse to provide certificates in the form 086-1/o to children who do not have one or more vaccinations. Thus violating the current instructions of the Ministry of Health! The increase in pressure on the unvaccinated finally resulted in the draft law No. 4142 of 22.09.2020. The bill "took up" not only children, who actually want to prohibit education in any form, even distance and family (again, due to non-issuance of certificates), but also adults. Exclusion from work, restrictions on traveling abroad, expansion of the vaccination calendar, introduction of the presumption of consent actually create a "state for the vaccinated", where an unvaccinated / under-vaccinated person is not just affected in rights, but does not have the opportunity to exist at all. The draft law is also adapted to new realities. In particular, it expands the powers of the Ministry of Health and the Cabinet of Ministers to impose quarantine restrictions, which is another tool for controlling people.

 

[Search]

"Government" of Ukraine tried to apply this law several times, the first time it was brought up in Parliament on 22.09.2020.
They tried to apply it several times before. And it almost apply.
JFYI.

Here is the link to an article. Short part of it.

"On the 7 of October (2020) the Main Scientific-Expert Department (of Ukraine) provided its opinion on Bill 4142 on the public health system. In their conclusion, the experts noted a number of flaws in the text, in particular the high-profile part concerning vaccinations. In particular, the experts expressed doubts about the feasibility of the proposed list of mandatory preventive vaccinations against 11 infectious diseases."

 

[Search]

Here is another website about this law 4142 (check the images, scroll down also) it attracted my attentions by the pictures they have posted.
They are pro ukrainian, but not anti-russian, as far as it seems to me. At least it is much better option amongst "all others" in Ukraine, IMO.

 

[Revolucionar]

Here is an interesting analysis from Big Serge. Paints a slightly different picture. Good to get different perspectives.

Ukraine Counterattacks!

Please Remain Calm

bigserge.substack.com

Thanks for this. Very good article that sums up and expands upon what I intended to write after reading about the "great counteroffensive". Ukraine is done for and they're just sending in more of their best to die for nothing other than perpetuating US dominance.
In the west, this offensive seems to raise high hopes and I'm curious to see what the reaction will be once it turns into a crushing defeat.
Talking about operational depth, Ukraine would have to take territories all the way to the Russian border or further, to have any hope of turning this around. And even then, Russia extends for 1000s of kilometers in every direction and they have no hope of avoiding encirclement.
I wonder why Ukrainian generals seem willing to sacrifice their men in this way. Maybe this will be the last straw and Zelensky gets the boot after this fails.

Edit: added back the link from the quote.

 

[anartist]

Ukraine Counterattacks!

Please Remain Calm

bigserge.substack.com

Thanks for this. Very good article that sums up and expands upon what I intended to write after reading about the "great counteroffensive". Ukraine is done for and they're just sending in more of their best to die for nothing other than perpetuating US dominance.
In the west, this offensive seems to raise high hopes and I'm curious to see what the reaction will be once it turns into a crushing defeat.
Talking about operational depth, Ukraine would have to take territories all the way to the Russian border or further, to have any hope of turning this around. And even then, Russia extends for 1000s of kilometers in every direction and they have no hope of avoiding encirclement.
I wonder why Ukrainian generals seem willing to sacrifice their men in this way. Maybe this will be the last straw and Zelensky gets the boot after this fails.

Edit: added back the link from the quote.

There is also what Andrei Martyanov has to say:

Reminiscence of the Future...

Si Vis Pacem, Para Vinum © Andrei Martyanov's Blog

smoothiex12.blogspot.com

About White Noise, Again.​

Larry is doing a superb job of breaking through the white noise and tactical minutiae constantly, now Saker did a good write up on all this tactical-operational BS.

In Russian there is an expression “this is unpleasant/upsetting but not dangerous” (это обидно, но не опасно). I think that this fully applies here: nobody in Russia is particularly happy about what is taking place (except maybe the Russian General Staff IF we assume that this is all a big trap the Russians deliberately created, and there is some evidence for that as the force concentrations prior to this attack were reported by numerous observers, so it was hardly a secret that the Ukronazis were about to attack somewhere in the northeast). But we need to really keep aware of the proportions of what is happening: after six months of warfare, this is the first and only Ukrainian attack which shows some real capabilities, and it is all limited to a rather narrow corridor within the Russian tactical defenses only! As I said, these are strong tactical attacks and clashes, but the size of them does not even amount to a real “battle” or “offensive”, at least not in the military sense of the word.

So, it is a tedious task to explain to laymen all intricacies of operations, real ones, and what comes in their planning. But I will add even more gravitas to this whole thing--strategy, a real one, not some BS "taught" in political science courses.

As Was Expected...​

... once real information, not from telegram channels' ignoramuses and defeatists, not to mention IPSO trolls, started to trickle down from Kharkov a much different picture began to emerge. For starters, the main "fix" of Kiev regime's propagandists--Balakleya (which is operationally not that important to start with)--is still not taken by VSU completely and, as was stated yesterday, Russian reserves are pouring in. Most importantly, VSU is now in the open and this may come as a surprise to Pentagon planners and commanders in charge of this "cascade" of the "offensives" which are blocked as I type it. The new "direction" could be Liman, but it seems that Pentagon will have to deal with the numbers of KIAs of VSU, which already yesterday were reported in excess of 5,000 KIAs and many more thousands of wounded, which any NATO army, including the US Army simply cannot sustain. In general, NATO's "planning" is unprofessional and is having huge issues with understanding of the "echeloning" offensive operations and the use of reserves.
So, let's leave it at that and continue to observe the whole thing as it unfolds, I am sure we will have second and third waves of IPSO and Western media campaign in promoting "successes" of VSU. I will only reiterate my point--those who really want to follow events, forget about all those "reporters" and telegram channels', 99% of them are utter unprofessional BSers. In fact, many allegedly "pro-Russian" or "patriotic" channels play INTO the hands of Western and Ukie propaganda without even understanding it. I personally view Yuri Podolyaka as an IPSO asset and increasingly open enemy of SMO.

 

[mxwlll0]

Sharing some updates from the channels I follow on Telegram on how RF forces are countering the latest Ukro offenses.

Basically, here’s comes the Calvary:

IntelSlavaZ: Russell TEXAS Bentley

It is reported that Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned the office of the President and Zelensky himself that an offensive in two strategic directions could have bad consequences. Due to the large losses in manpower and equipment, there may be a huge shortage of heavy weapons and experienced units. The personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, seeing and knowing all the "underground" (huge losses), will be morally broken if the territorial result is not achieved and retained.

At the same time, there is a huge risk that the Russian army is exhausting parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, drawing in and knocking out the most combat-ready units. At the same time, the attempt of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to go on the counteroffensive with a high degree of probability has a chance of success. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will no longer have reserves to contain the "onslaught" and a complete collapse of the defense will begin, at least in two strategic directions.

All reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now thrown into the attack so that Ukrainian politicians can achieve their goals at a meeting with donors in the Ramstein format.

Convoys on way to Izyum: https://t.me/asbmil/4956

Russian Pantsir’s and S300’s on their way to Izyum direction

ASB Military News

Battle for Izyum: a huge convoy of Russian military equipment is moving towards the Izyum direction

The Russian armed forces are gathering additional forces to repel the counteroffensive of Ukrainian militants in the Izyum direction

Overall summary of changing conditions and RF forces response in Kherson region: ASB Military News

Kherson region — RF Forces deployed electronic warfare units and now they are jamming communications of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are also conducting sweeps on the locals who have been proven to “collaborate with the Armed Forces of Ukraine” and transmit the coordinates of Russian Armed Forces crossings to them. Cell towers have been tapped by the Russian Armed Forces units as well, and electronic intelligence is working the way it should’ve been since day one.
The sightings of Russian aircraft have increased by several fold since last night, thousands of Russian Armed Forces troops were moved into the conflict area, armour has been airdropped for the last 10 hours or so, special forces were deployed to counter the small Ukrainian units that carry out the breakthroughs (ISIS style, someone with experience from Iraq and Syria planned this without a doubt) & Russia is very familiar with these tactics. Central military district seems to be the driving force behind the counteroffensive just launched by Russia on the other end of the front line. The goal is to destroy Ukrainian units attempting breakthroughs and to inflict air strikes into accumulation of Ukrainian units that have broken through the areas mentioned in the past 48h.
Russia conducted mass evacuation of civilians deeper into DPR and into Russia-mainland. This suggests they’re ready to reduce these places to rubble.

Ukrainians keep striking civilian buildings in DPR, several civilians were killed since this morning.

It’s too early to give any positional updates. Let the troops work on both sides and let’s look at it once in every 24h

If we report one thing, it will change in 2 hours. Then it’ll change again.

1x a day positional reports are needed, not this constant flow of confusion with positions. Fog of war is real.

The Russians are now readjusting to match the new tactics employed by Ukrainians, so the tide is likely to turn around soon.
Large calibre MLRS has been employed by Russians, GRADs are working as well but from the side of DPR.

DPR troops tell us they finally received reinforcements from Russia, including equipment.

There are several settlements said to be recaptured by Russian Armed Forces at the moment, but we haven’t seen any proof yet. Too early to report.

t.me/asbmil

Heavy artillery on the way: ASB Military News

Newly deployed Thermobaric systems on their way to strike Ukrainian Armed Forces in vicinity of Kupyansk

Russia takes out a S-300 facility: ASB Military News

S-300 complexes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region were destroyed.

The strike of the Russian army destroyed 12 S-300PT launchers and an S-300PS RPN radar.

Ouch. Expensive hit.

t.me/asbmil

Assessment from Scott Ritter: Russian Head

Some Comments on the Military Situation in Ukraine as of September 9, 2022


I have been asked to comment on the situation in eastern-southern Ukraine following the commencement of a major counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces (UAF). Given the fluidity of the situation on the ground, I will avoid trying to conduct a detailed analysis of the specific actions that have taken place, are taking place, and will take place. I am thousands of miles removed from the battlefield and am in receipt of incomplete and often contradictory pieces of information. Any effort to try and paint a complete picture of this battlefield would be, in my case at least, a fool’s errand.


I will start with first principles. War is a complicated business. Any effort that overlooks this reality when promulgating “solutions” to problems on the battlefield is self-nullifying.


Both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are large, professional organizations backed by institutions designed to produce qualified warriors. Both militaries are well led, well equipped, and well prepared to undertake the missions assigned them. They are among the largest military organizations in Europe.


The Russian military is staffed by officers of the highest caliber, who have undergone extensive training in the military arts. They are experts in strategy, operations, and tactics. They know their business.


The Ukrainian military has undergone a radical transformation in the years since 2014, where Soviet-era doctrine has been replaced by a hybrid doctrine which incorporates NATO doctrine and methodologies. This transformation has been accelerated dramatically since the outset of the Special Military Operation, with the Ukrainian military virtually transitioning from older Soviet-era heavy equipment to an arsenal which more closely mirrors the table of organization and equipment of the NATO nations which are providing billions of dollars of equipment and training.


The Ukrainians are, like their Russian counterparts, military professional’s adept at the necessity of adapting to battlefield realities. The Ukrainian experience, however, is complicated by the complexity associated by trying to meld two disparate doctrinal approaches to war (Soviet-era and modern NATO) under combat conditions. This complexity creates opportunities for mistakes, and mistakes on the battlefield often result in casualties—significant casualties.


Russia has fought three different style wars in the six months that the Special Military Operation has been underway. The first was a war of maneuver, designed to seize as much territory as possible to shape the battlefield militarily and politically. The Special Military Operation was conducted with approximately 200,000 Russian and allied forces, who were up against an active-duty Ukrainian military of some 260,000 troops backed by up to 600,000 reservists. The standard 3:1 attacker-defender ratio did not apply—the Russians sought to use speed, surprise, and audacity to minimize Ukraine’s numerical advantage, and in the process hoping for a rapid political collapse in Ukraine that would prevent any major fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces.


This plan succeeded in some areas (in the south, for instance), and did fix Ukrainian troops in place and cause the diversion of reinforcements away from critical zones of operation. But it failed strategically—the Ukrainians did not collapse, but rather solidified, ensuring a long, hard fight ahead.


The second phase of the Russian operation had the Russians regroup to focus on the conquest/liberation of the Donbas region. Here, Russia adapted its operational methodology, using its superiority in firepower to conduct a slow, deliberate advance against Ukrainian forces dug into extensive defensive networks and, in doing so, achieving unheard of casualty ratios that had ten or more Ukrainians being killed or wounded for every Russian casualty.

There’s a lot more posted daily on those channels. Hope it helps provide some perspective other here...