Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[Aeneas]

300,000 tons is 300,000,000 kg or 300,000,000,000 g divided by 16g/mol is 18,750,000,000 mol and multiply by roughly 0.024m3/mol if the sea is about 13-15 degrees gives me 450,000,000 m3. or 0,45 km3. That is quite a bit.

The Guardian gives the amount to be 300,000,000 m3, which is not far from what you have calculated. This does not mean that the Guardian is closer to the exact amount than you and I seem to remember seeing a number upwards of 0,6 km3. Anyway, a lot of gas, which could have been better used.

 

[Aeneas]

There only half of what was written was translated.

I noticed that some items were hidden so I expanded all (I think) of the hidden parts and this is the result:

Please note, this is written on April 16:

Political joystick/Politjoystic
Who does he represent? Abramovich is back in Kiev. It's funny that he's not afraid to come there. That is, he has very serious guarantees.

Image of the future
Abramovich brought the Saudi prince's money for Medvedchuk.
No?

And this is already September 22:

BRIEF
Roman Abramovich participated in the prisoner exchange process, the Mirror reports, citing an interlocutor who flew to Britain on the same flight with the exchanged mercenaries. One of them, Andrew Hill, said that "Abramovich helped ensure their safety."

Is this how Russia decides the fate of its 500+ prisoners, or are capitalists busy with their own problems and benefits from the war? Who manages the "military operation" at all? Putin and the Defense Ministry or oligarchs and bankers?
And why have they been solving their capitalist business and the fate of Nazis and foreign mercenaries with the West and Ukraine for many months instead of the fate of hundreds of Russian prisoners of war?

Political joystick/Politjoystic
We gave the commanders of the terrorist organization "Azov".
That is, by the decision of the Ministry of Justice, we recognize Azov as a terrorist organization, and in a couple of days we extradite its participants to a country that kills our citizens. And Donetsk also gives away foreigners who fought against the republic, were captured and sentenced to death. And this is against the background of the announcement on the same day of the partial mobilization of 300 thousand Russian citizens, some of whom will then be killed and wounded by the same Nazis.
We have some kind of two parallel realities. I have to digest this, it doesn't fit in my head yet.

Anatoly Shari
[Photo]
They are both at large. And if fools in front of televisions with federal channels will explain it with some standard nonsense about "the life of one Russian soldier is worth it" ..., then this will never be explained to everyone else.
I remember that video where they finished off a lying Russian soldier to cheerful music.

The Fisherman
[Recently] we conducted a sociological survey of a patriotically charged audience. In the first place of importance for our subscribers among the goals of the special military operation was the destruction of the hotbed of instability on the borders of Russia, and in the second place — the eradication of neo-Nazism.
The surfaced facts of the successful "operation extraction" in relation to the servicemen of the Azov national regiment and foreign mercenaries sentenced to death clearly indicate that nothing works with either the first or the second SMO goals.
They exchanged, at least, a pilot FROM the Wagner PMCs (but do PMCs belong to the Ministry of Defense and directly to the state?) and several dozen Russian servicemen who were captured during the retreat from the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian side does not want to exchange our prisoners of war for someone other than foreigners and "Azov". They don't care about ordinary Ukrainian soldiers and members of the defense Ministry. Symbols are needed. Which will be able to promote as much as possible and show once again how little Ukraine slapped big Russia in the face.
The lives of our servicemen, of course, are more important than this rabble.
But this does not negate a few simple truths.
In Ukraine and abroad, mercenaries and Nazis will be greeted as heroes, and the former prisoners themselves will be on the covers of newspapers and on television screens for several weeks, working for anti-Russian propaganda.
Reports about desperate mercenaries awaiting execution were scattered across foreign media, stopping the flow of those wishing to join the "International Legion".
Now potential mercenaries from dozens of countries can go to Ukraine, being confident in their heroic release from captivity after the exchange.
Despite all the stories about "sinister Russian prisons", the mercenaries went to Saudi Arabia well-fed, whole and healthy.
Yes, the lives of Russian servicemen have been saved.
Was it necessary to do this? Uniquely.
But at what price?
At the price of the deceived expectations of the world audience? At the cost of a step that will be interpreted as weakness all over the world?
Whatever one may say, but this is a sensitive reputational blow after the powerful words "the wind rose can turn in the other direction."

How did they all laugh from the "extraction", these patriots in social networks?
I want to draw your attention here to the fact that the Russian media and social networks have already reported several times that some foreign mercenaries have ALREADY been executed in Donetsk and Lugansk! But we see them very much alive and joyful. Has Russian propaganda deceived us all? It can't be! This is all the work of the "center for psychological operations", for sure!

And what the hell do they need Medvedchuk for?
And after all, the most shameful and ugly thing is not even that they constantly lie, today they categorically declare one thing, and tomorrow they do the opposite, spitting on their own laws and decisions. The most shameful and disgusting thing is that the Ukrainian Reich bends them every time. Spits in their face, and the Russian side goes on about them every time and agrees to everything, to any shameful and inadequate requirements and conditions.
I wonder why Kiev and its Wehrmacht do not know the limits in their cynicism, in daily shelling, including Russian territories, etc. Hmmm.... It's unclear, really. I wonder why they immediately send all the proposals and demands of Russia [censorship here]?
And the Russians also warn them every time about their plans, about the goals of missile strikes, and give them time to prepare. It's just the bottom.

Anyway, these exchanges, these processes are all regular and cyclical, it can't pass by Putin, by Naryshkin and other bosses. I.e. they are aware anyway. And they coordinate all this, submit their resolutions. They give the go-ahead.
And to whom does all propaganda obey? All these federal TV channels and the media in general, which parasitize and live on multibillion-dollar budgets from the treasury. They literally do only one thing: they rewrite history, impose debauchery, bestial behavior and an egocentric, boorish lifestyle as a norm, as a standard, they themselves advertise and promote all the most disgusting rubbish and nonsense. Total lies about the past. His own past. Against the background of regular statements that "we will not allow anyone to blacken our memory and rewrite our history."
I mean, it's not all let loose, there are powerful forces behind all this, clearly and clearly understanding their goals and intentions. And all this is closely intertwined with all levels, all structures. And is it a separate conditional group/society, or not, is it the same "face" of the entire top of power?
That's how Putin can not know this, not know that every day they are seriously broadcasting all these statements about "Nazi criminals who are in no way subject to exchange," "everyone is waiting for a trial and a fair punishment," "we are all together and must trust each other," "our goals are unchanged," and everything else. Putin, Naryshkin, Bastrykin and others like don't know about all this?
And what happens REPEATEDLY in reality? It's the opposite.
How does this happen, who manages it, is responsible for it, who is the architect of all these brilliant initiatives and statements?
And the main thing is that no conclusions are being drawn at all, there are simply no conclusions. Over and over again.

Resident
Our source in the Office of the President [Zelensky] said that the General Staff proposes to strengthen mobilization in order to form an army superior to the Russian one. The Izyum counteroffensive succeeded due to the fact that the number of Ukrainian soldiers on a particular sector of the front exceeded the Russians by 10 times. After the start of mobilization in Russia, it is necessary to solve this issue in Ukraine.

That is, now Ukrainians will be caught even tougher everywhere and sent to slaughter. More missiles for recruits. More "Zelensky Nazis" (this is bitter sarcasm), who will be ground in a meat grinder. Let me remind you that the entire Ukrainian army is replenished at the expense of civilians. This is not a professional military.

Resident
Our source in the OP said that the case with the exchange of prisoners is on the list of the "Big Deal", which should freeze the conflict in Ukraine. The main mediator is Erdogan and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. The surrender at Azovstal took place under the guarantees of the Turkish President, as our source reported in the first days, and now these agreements have begun to be implemented.

Even more behind-the-scenes intrigues that should not interest the serfs.
And it would seem, what does Saudi Arabia have to do with it at all?
Maybe, AMONG OTHER THINGS, for someone this whole "military operation" just boils down to oil, gas and making profits again?

And now the question "what does Saudi Arabia have to do with the war in Ukraine and the British prisoners" no longer looks like a question.

Well, that is, here's the war for you. They have everything divided and resolved from the very beginning, and the rest is all sorts of minor scrapes in the process.
Why the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye? These are ports, factories, heavy industry, access to the sea, grain and other crops.
Capitalists divide territories by their economic assets and expected dividends. And not because there are more Russians or fewer Ukrainians somewhere (or any other nationalities anywhere else in the world). "Caring for people" is a screen for the naive.
Well, and then the answer is why the Ukrainian Reich is not afraid of anything at all, no strikes or other measures of influence on them, etc. They just have guarantees. And everything.
And all this gang is having fun in Kiev, they are drunk dancing and singing, flying "for a weekend in Vienna for a cup of coffee" and enjoying life. There is no war for them.
And the population and soldiers of both sides are dying and suffering.

And the Resident (Ukrainian TV channel) has repeatedly written (and similar channels) how Arakhamiya (one of the aces from Zelensky's deck) constantly lobbies and advertises casinos and x1bet bets of the Russian oligarch in Ukraine. The war? What war? Personal enrichment.
It's you sheep, kill and hate each other.

I had something in my mind that the occupation of territories and leaving them were part of the performance. It's just a damn auction like in the market. With "deft hand movements" and all sorts of tricks like "what do you say to that?" - and put Nazi leaders, mercenaries, etc. on the table, and in return give our billionaires their assets and oil deals.

 

[Lumiere_du_Code]

Анатолий Шарий
The first thing which did "Frost", a Nazi freed by the Russian government, did was to publish a video of himself killing a wounded Russian tanker lying on the ground.
Sounds perfectly logical and predictable to me.
We really hope that the individual stupid Russian turbo patriots who have been stinking up the most vile "talking about an exchange means rocking the boat" style for days,
as well as their lead bloggers, sitting with stupid faces in front of the cameras and talking about "destabilization."
will someday get off their asses from their couches, receive subpoenas [from the military enlistment office], not destabilize and rock the boat with their attempts to flee the country, go to the front and there fall into the hands of the "warriors of light" [AFU].

It would be fair and very logical.

P.S. Still the main thing that interests me is what the fuck are ordinary 20 year old mobilized AFU soldiers sitting in camps, who did not kill anyone on camera?

Анатолий Шарий
Well, in the Private Channel I published, partially obscuring, of course, the photo of a fighter boiling someone's son's or father's head in a pot.
I understand that this will probably be in the Russian media tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
But I honestly do not understand and refuse to understand the lamentations on this subject from Russian federal channels.

What is the point of talking about "Nazis", "murderers" and "monsters" after September 22?

I believe that Russia's guilt for what is happening now is also substantial. If they wanted to, they wouldn't have leaked Yanukovich. Lukashenko, on the other hand, is being held up. They protected Tokayev (who still continues to put sticks in the wheels). They protected Erdogan, the sneaky and despicable old fox. But their closest neighboring colleague is not. If Nazis come to power in Ukraine and there's a war - okay, we're fine with that.
And don't need to excuses, that they say 8 years ago we could not afford the military intervention and the heavy burden of sanctions. Well, yes, supersonic missiles were not yet in service then. But how many of them were used now in 7 months? And the balance of power of the AFU/NATO (here specifically) was completely different.
So this is all nonsense. It's not Putin who decides there, but "big wallets" with money accounts abroad.

Perhaps no one remembers it anymore, but even before the Maidan in 2013, Russian propaganda relentlessly bombarded its population with statements by Medvedev and other politicians that there was no problem with NATO, that anyone who said that NATO was dangerous for Russia was a slandererer, and so on. They didn't paint any scary pictures, no hints of future conflicts or disagreements.
They just continued to help the West turn the Russian population into hay-munching animals through immoral movies, TV shows, entertainment, the imposition of Western "values", etc. They're doing it now, all the same.
And then "suddenly" everything turned 180 degrees, NATO and Ukraine suddenly weren't very friendly and propaganda started about how bad they all are.

Nuclear strikes in response to strikes on Kherson/ZNPP/Melitopol, etc., and all sorts of "this will already be our land and our people, so we will react harshly and hit harder". And in Belgorod, Kursk, and Crimea, whose land and whose people are dying and suffering? Where is this tough response?
Well, that's hypocrisy. Today the Ukrainians are there, so we don't care. Tomorrow Ukrainians will suddenly become Russians there (well, just because of the referendum and the region sailed) - then we'll think about them.
In Donetsk and Lugansk, hundreds of thousands of people have been living with Russian passports for nine years, with Russian license plates - aren't they the same Russians as in Moscow, for example? It turns out that no, they are a little bit of a different sort. Every day they are torn to pieces by artillery, what can we do? We have Medvedchuk on a private flight to his villa in Moscow, and the British have promised to unfreeze our accounts in their banks for the mercenaries. And you have some people there in some Donetsk and Kharkov.
For mercenaries, some of whom have already been executed, according to reports from the authorities. Oops, you have been "misled" a bit.

Образ будущего
Viktor Medvedchuk will tell Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Minsk exactly how he got off easy.
Medvedchuk is leaving the Russian Federation today and will go to Minsk. (The former president of Kyrgyzstan is also hiding there). Along with Lukashenko. Alexander Grigorievich has kindly agreed to take the elite trader of Ukraine under his wing and a reliable guard.
Medvedchuk's wife has already built a family nest in a closed village near Minsk for $23 mln "honestly stolen" from gas deals. The maintenance of 18 guards and two armored cars will be paid separately.

When Russia says that Russians don't leave their own behind, this must be about oligarchs, politicians-traitors and criminal gangs affiliated with the elites. Are they "their own"?
It's not your hundreds of thousands of Kharkov region residents who were simply cynically abandoned.

Tynu40k Goblina (oper.ru)
Everything in the country, and first and foremost everything for the war had to come from home: processors, optics, engines, microchips, everything. Thanks to the corrupt scum and traitors who murdered Soviet industry and the Soviet military-industrial complex:

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15885129
Most of the aerial drones produced in Russia do not meet the tactical and technical requirements of the Russian Ministry of Defense. And most manufacturers, unfortunately, are unable to meet them. And the main problem of non-compliance is the element base.
According to a representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, due to this situation, the military department "is forced to go for simplification, for additional agreements, for accepting UAVs for pilot operation."

Compare these two posts below with each other. The first is Russian, the second is Ukrainian:

Образ будущего
Valentina Matviyenko boldly hinted that "let the whole world wait" until October 4.
But that is not the intrigue. The world will wait even longer, if necessary, for example until November. There is a scenario of accepting new republics closer to November 8.
There is haggling, negotiation until 3:00 on October 3, 2022.
According to the plan told yesterday, in Riyadh and between Moscow and Washington on the traditional closed line of communication. In Riyadh, representatives of the General Staff decide the fate of relations between Kiev and Moscow in the event of a consensus between the Washington Obkom and the Kremlin. The fate of Zelensky, Yermak, Podolyak, Arahamia and the heads of all non-military security agencies, including the heads of the National Security and Defense Council and the Verkhovna Rada are also discussed.

Successful negotiations will culminate in the signing of a multilateral U.S.-EU-Russian Federation-Ukraine agreement, which will later be supported by the UN Security Council and the entire General Assembly.

If the negotiations fail, a reverse report can be launched.
Plan B for the world is not much fun.
In terms of the dystopian "last fantasy," the big war scenario could be this.
The GTS and CHP will roll Ukraine back into the 18th century overnight - 24 hours to surrender.
No, then bridges over the Dnieper - 24 ultimatum. No, further 72 hours a missile rain on Odessa and Nikolaev, before that the drones will destroy the air defense of these areas, then a landing in Odessa and a massive tank march with a shaft of fire on Nikolaev and a landing from the Crimea in Transnistria to the Tiraspol airfield.
The chances are good.
There is also the option of responding to the inclusion of NATO.

For a month, planes have been flying out of Belarus, rehearsing the strikes of hypersonic missiles with a nuclear tactical part for 25 kilotons. This is in case the PMCs and volunteer furloughers will try to move from the territory of Poland. Zelenski, Yermak and the Verkhovna Rada will become legitimate targets.
The U.S. can hit the Black Sea Fleet, but the ships off the coast of Syria, in neutral waters, can hit the LNR, the territory of the Kherson region, including the ZAZ, with a wind rose in the horizon of 5-7 days in our direction.
But everyone knows how the Russian Federation will respond to this.
Exercises for rapid evacuation under the threat of nuclear strikes or man-made disasters are already underway in Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states.

Who said anything about the Cuban Missile Crisis?
This one could be very different, which was hard to imagine...
May the negotiations be successful.

Резидент
MI-6 gave intelligence to the Office of the President that the Kremlin will issue a step-by-step ultimatum to Ukraine after the acceptance of the new regions into Russia. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not stop hostilities, within two weeks the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine will be put out of action, and the second stage will be tactical nuclear strikes.

If we assume that this scenario really exists in someone's head and can be implemented, then:
* Somehow it's a good thing to take care of people.
* To destroy the entire country, leaving it without the basic tools and goods,
* then all food production would stop,
* and the price of everything would instantly go out of the solar system.
* And winter is coming.
* What about maternity hospitals, like operating rooms?
* And possible radiation contamination of areas.
* And the junta, if anything, will be targeted at the very end. When not many people need to be liberated and protected.
* But you can't expect much resistance. Only if NATO intervenes. For the Ukrainian lands, of course, they are tidbits for everyone.

Spoiler: In Russian:

Анатолий Шарий
Первое, что сделал освобожденный российской властью нацист Фрост - опубликовал видео, на котором запечатлено, как он убивает лежащего на земле раненого российского танкиста.
Как по мне - совершенно логично и предсказуемо.
Мы очень надеемся, что отдельные тупые российские турбо патриоты, несколько дней воняющие самым паскудным образом в стиле "говорить об обмене значит раскачивать лодку",
а также их поводыри-блогеры, сидящие с тупыми лицами перед камерами и рассказывающие о "дестабилизации",
когда-нибудь оторвут свои задницы от диванов, получив повестки [из военкомата], не будут дестабилизировать и раскачивать попытками сбежать из страны, отправятся на фронт и там попадут в руки "воинов света" [ВСУ].

Было бы справедливо и очень логично.

П.С. По-прежнему главное, что меня интересует - какого хрена сидят в лагерях обычные мобилизованные 20-летние солдаты ВСУ, никого на камеру не убивавшие?

Анатолий Шарий
Ну вот в Частном канале я опубликовал, частично замазав, естественно, фото бойца, вываривающего в кастрюле голову чьего-то сына или отца.
Понимаю, что это завтра-послезавтра будет в рос СМИ, наверное.
Но я честно не понимаю и отказываюсь понимать теперь причитаний на этот счёт от российских федеральных каналов.

Какой смысл теперь рассказывать о "нацистах", "убийцах" и "извергах" после 22 сентября?

Я считаю, что вина России за происходящее ныне существенна. Если бы они хотели, то не сливали бы Януковича. Лукашенко же держат. Токаева защитили (который все равно продолжает ставить палки в колёса). Эрдогана этого хитрозадого и подлого. А своего ближайшего соседнего коллегу - нет. К власти придут нацисты в Украине и будет война - ок, мы не против.
И не надо здесь отговорок, что мол 8 лет назад не могли себе позволить военное вмешательство и тяжкий гнет санкций. Ну да, сверхзвуковых ракет тогда ещё на вооружении не было. Но много ли их применялось сейчас за 7 месяцев? И расклад сил у ВСУ/НАТО (здесь конкретно) был совершенно другой.
Так что чушь это всё. Там не Путин решает, а дяди со счетами за границей.

Возможно, никто уже этого не помнит, но ещё до майдана в 2013 российская пропаганда неустанно бомбила своё население заявлениями Медведева и прочих политиков о том, что нет никаких проблем с НАТО, что все, кто говорят, что НАТО опасно для России - это клеветники, и всё в таком духе. Они никаких страшных картин не рисовали, никаких намеков на будущие конфликты или разногласия.
Они просто продолжали помогать Западу превращать население России в жующих сено животных через аморальные кинофильмы, телепередачи, развлечения, насаждение западных "ценностей" и т.д. Они делают это и сейчас, всё так же.
А потом "внезапно" всё повернулось на 180 градусов, НАТО и Украина вдруг оказались не очень дружелюбны и началась пропаганда о том, какие они все плохие.

Ядерные удары в ответ на удары по Херсону / ЗАЭС / Мелитополю и пр., и всякое "это уже будет наша земля и наши люди, значит будем жёстко реагировать и бить сильнее". А в Белгороде, Курске и Крыму чья земля и чьи люди, которые гибнут и страдают? Где это жесткое реагирование?
Ну, это лицемерие. Сегодня там украинцы, так что нам плевать. Завтра внезапно там украинцы станут русскими (ну просто потому что референдум и регион уплыл) - тогда и подумаем о них.
В Донецке и Луганске уже 9-й год с российскими паспортами сотни тысяч людей живут, с российскими номерами на авто - они не такие же россияне, как в Москве, например? Оказывается, нет, немного другой сорт. Ну разрывает их на куски каждый день от артиллерии, ну что мы можем сделать? У нас вон Медведчук частным рейсом на виллу в Москву прилетел и британцы обещали за наёмников наши счета немножко разморозить в их банках. А у вас там какие-то люди в каких-то Донецках и Харьковах.
За наёмников, некоторые из которых уже были казнены, по сводкам от властей. Ой, вас немножко "ввели в заблуждение".

Образ будущего
Виктор Медведчук расскажет Курманбеку Бакиеву в Минске, как именно тот легко отделался.
Медведчук покидает Российскую Федерацию уже сегодня и отправляется в Минск. (Там же скрывается бывший президент Киргизии). Вместе с Лукашенко. Александр Григорьевич любезно согласился взять элитного торговца Украиной под своё крыло и надёжную охрану.
Жена Медведчука уже свила семейное гнездышко в закрытом посёлке под Минском за "честно украденные" на газовых сделках $23 млн. Отдельно будет оплачиваться содержание 18 человек охраны и два бронеавтомобиля.

Когда Россия говорит, что русские своих не бросают - это, наверное, вот об олигархах, политиках-предателях и связанными с элитами преступными группировками. Это они - "свои"?
Это ведь не ваши сотни тысяч жителей Харьковской области, которых просто цинично бросили.

Tynu40k Goblina (oper.ru)
В стране всё, и в первую очередь всё для войны должно быть своё: процессоры, оптика, двигатели, микросхемы, всё. Спасибо продажным мразям и предателям, которые убивали советскую промышленность и советский ВПК:

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15885129
Большинство производимых в России авиационных беспилотников не удовлетворяют тактико-техническим требованиям Министерства обороны РФ. И большинство производителей, к сожалению, не способны их выполнить. И основная проблема невыполнения - элементная база.
По словам представителя Минобороны России, в связи с данной ситуацией, военное ведомство "вынуждено идти на упрощение, на дополнительные соглашения, на прием БЛА в эксплуатацию в опытном режиме".

Сопоставьте два этих поста ниже между собой. Первый - российский, второй - украинский.

Образ будущего
Валентина Матвиенко жирно намекнула, что до 4 октября «пусть весь мир подождёт».
Но интрига не в этом. Мир подождёт и больше, если нужно, например до ноября. Существует сценарий принятия новых республик ближе к 8 ноября.
Идёт торг, переговоры до 3:00 3 октября 2022.
По плану, рассказанному вчера, в Эр-Рияде и между Москвой и Вашингтоном по традиционной закрытой линии связи. В Эр-Рияде представители Генштабов решают судьбу отношений между Киевом и Москвой в случае консенсуса между Вашингтонским обкомом и Кремлем. Судьбу Зеленского, Ермака, Подоляка, Арахамии и глав всех невоенных силовых ведомств, включая глав СНБО и Верховной Рады тоже обсуждают.

Успешные переговоры завершатся подписанием многостороннего договора США-ЕС, Российская Федерация, Украина, который позже поддержит Совбез ООН и вся Генассамблея.

Если переговоры провалятся, может быть запущен обратный отчёт.
План В для мира не очень весёлый.
В плане мрачной «последней фантазии» сценарий большой войны может быть такой.
ГТС и ТЭЦ за одну ночь откатят Украину в 18 век - 24 часа на капитуляцию.
Нет, значит мосты через Днепр - 24 ультимамум. Нет, дальше 72 часа ракетный дождь по Одессе и Николаеву, перед этим беспилотники группами уничтожат ПВО этих областей, потом высадка десанта в Одессе и массированный танковый марш с огненным валом на Николаев и десант из Крыма в Приднестровье на тираспольский аэродром.
Шансы хорошие.
Есть и вариант ответа на включение НАТО.
Самолёты уже месяц вылетают из Беларуссии, репетируя звеньями нанесение ударов гиперзвуковой ракетой с ядерной тактической частью на 25-килотонн. Это на случай, если с территории Польши попробуют перебросить ЧВК и добровольцев-отпускников. Зеленский, Ермак и Верховная Рада станут законными целями.
США могут ударить по Черноморскому флоту, но корабли у берегов Сирии, в нейтральных водах, могут ударить ТЯО по ЛДНР, территории Херсонской области, включая ЗАЭС, при розе ветров в горизонте 5-7 дней в нашу сторону.
Но всем известно, чем ответит РФ на это.
Учения по быстрой эвакуации при угрозе ядерных ударов или техногенных катастроф уже идут в Польше, Чехии, странах Прибалтики.

Кто там говорил про Карибский кризис?
Этот может быть совсем другим, что сложно было представить...
Пусть переговоры будут успешные.

Резидент
MI-6 передали разведданные в Офис Президента, что Кремль после принятия новых областей в состав России выдвинет поэтапный ультиматум Украине. Если ВСУ не остановят боевые действия то в течение двух недель будет выведена из строя вся энергетическая инфраструктура Украины, а вторым этапом пойдут удары тактическим ядерным оружием.

Если предположить, что данный сценарий реально существует в чьих-то головах и может быть реализован, то:
* Как-то это хорошая такая забота о людях.
* Всю страну разрушить, оставив без базовых инструментов и благ,
* тут же и все производства пищи остановятся,
* и мгновенно цены на всё улетят за пределы солнечной системы.
* И winter is coming.
* А роддома, например, операционные?
* Ну и возможное радиационное заражение территорий.
* А хунта, если что, будет целью в самом конце. Когда мало кого уже нужно будет освобождать и защищать.
* Зато сопротивления особого можно не ждать. Ну, только если НАТО вмешается. За украинские земли, естественно, всё же они для всех лакомые.

 

[Lumiere_du_Code]

I noticed that some items were hidden so I expanded all (I think) of the hidden parts and this is the result:

This part is still not translated from my first post for some reason (is an automatic translation below, I have not checked its accuracy now) :


By the way, where are all those high-ranking NATO military experts for whom Mariupol was wiped off the face of the earth along with some of its inhabitants? Those NATO members for whom Macron and Johnson were personally harnessed? Where are they?
Well, apart from the "good men" from the IDF whom Russia "as a goodwill gesture" returned to Israel...

And what about those components for the Ukrainian dirty nuclear bomb, which were in the plane "Dream" in Gostomel? Has this trump card already been used to auction off the UKRAINIAN CITIZEN Medvedchuk or to unfreeze some of the billion dollar accounts in a British bank of Russia's oligarchic elite?
And we all also remember that "Putin has a trump card in that he knows about 9/11. And also who could have sunk the nuclear submarine Kursk the year he came to power. Have these trump cards been played yet? Or has Russia left them for later, when there is a nuclear war and "we Russians will die as martyrs and righteous men and go to heaven, and they will all just die like hell"? Yes, I think that will come in handy there.

People, including me, do not condemn the very facts of prisoner exchanges (and sometimes it is NOT prisoners at all, but the son of a Chechen official or Russian elite) - the constant, brazen LIES and the whole farce are unacceptable. Why they need to organize this charade, and then lie over and over again?
Back when Ukraine took Medvedchuk hostage in the spring, calling it a "brilliant SBU special operation" and foisting him on the Kremlin for an exchange, Putin's press secretary Peskov made a statement to the press that "Why do we need him, Medvedchuk is not a prisoner of war and a Russian citizen? And after the recent exchange, these two facts have somehow changed, right?

Peskov: The Kremlin does not comment on the Defense Ministry's information about the prisoner-of-war exchange with Ukraine.

Indeed, why should they? Does the Kremlin even comment on anything? Peskov is only needed there for this phrase about the Kremlin not commenting on anything. The comments about there being no comment.

If I were in the shoes of those who are now fighting with the AFU and the Nazis, I would be shocked by all of this. Especially if I were those who are being stupidly thrown into the hands of the punishers. Well, it happens, what's the big deal. At least we're friends with the prince of Saudi Arabia who personally ordered the dismemberment of his journalist (even if he was a spy) and the issues of oil prices and production are somehow above all those tens of thousands of abandoned civilians and maimed soldiers. A normal commander would have leveled mountains for his soldiers. And there really are such commanders on the battlefields. But there are none at the top.

Ukraine returns Russian prisoners EXPOSED, CASTROED, which is why NO exchange has ever been covered in the press and no pictures are taken from the field. Russia simply hides all these facts. Despite the fact that many of these cases become known, it is all seen by medical personnel. And these prisoners without their male organs return home, meet their families and the next day they are found hanged.
Why can't Russia strictly condition to the Western curators of Ukraine that all these mutilations and abuse of prisoners are unacceptable and there will be retaliatory measures for each such case? There is no such thing. While Abramovich and other oligarchs freely fly to Kiev with money and solve their personal issues, decide the fate of the foreign mercenaries and Nazis whom Russia treats, feeds, puts on their feet, polishes them to a shine, but not Russian soldiers.

Instead, the Russians paint fences and steles in the territories they occupy and draw the new coat of arms of the "Kharkov People's Republic". From which they escaped and abandoned all those people to certain death and repression. Just imagine yourself in their shoes. There is no excuse for that. Moreover, after leaving the Kharkiv direction, many Russian analysts, experts, media personalities close to the government openly said that "there is nothing bad in this withdrawal, on the contrary, there are even pluses. And all those people who did not evacuate on their own - it means that they are indifferent to us Ukrainians and deserve the fate that was destined for them. This is what Russian "protection of the population" and "liberation from Nazism" looks like. Now put yourself in that situation again and then start justifying all this cynicism and betrayal.

"Liberated and protected":

Рыбарь
Quite recently, the city of Kupyansk in Kharkiv region was in the spotlight of military channels. There were battles for the city, and the Russian Armed Forces occupied the eastern outskirts of it. However, now the settlement has almost completely disappeared from the agenda.
The rybar team talked to local residents and tells how Kupyansk lives today.
* The city is divided into two parts by the Oskol River. The western part is mostly occupied by the AFU. The eastern part is in the gray zone, there are fights for it, and residents are mostly sitting in basements. Entrance to it is closed.
* The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to cross the Oskol River.
* Adjacent villages of Kovsharovka, Kurilovka, Podoly, Petropavlovka, Dvurechnaya, Novosinovo, Nechvolodovka are under constant shelling.
* Altogether in Kupyansk and adjacent villages now live, according to approximate estimates of local residents, about 20-30 thousand people, from the Russian side - about 10 thousand people. Most of them are elderly people who simply cannot leave their homes.
* Unfortunately, while volunteers from Kharkiv come to the Ukrainian-controlled part of Kupyansk, the Russian-controlled part does not, according to available information. Entrance to the city from the east is closed.
* It is not safe in the eastern part: Ukrainian DRGs enter quite freely, and urban battles often break out. The Russian Armed Forces have mostly withdrawn to the eastern outskirts of the settlement.
* In Kupyansk, there are many destroyed houses, there is no electricity, and only in some areas there is gas. People cook food on campfires. If there is any communication, it is only from Ukrainian cellular operators.
* Locals have established a pedestrian crossing of the Oskol south of Kupyansk in the village of Senkovo. It is used, among other things, by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Diversionary groups.
Now the town, which has been split in two and has become a battlefield, is virtually uninhabitable. Unfortunately, until the RF Armed Forces regain control of the entire village, it will be impossible to establish normal life there.

This is an example of just one small town. And there are a huge number of settlements from which the Russian army left.
"The Russians don't abandon their own." That's what they always say. If they did, it means they are not their own.
Poor people. Like in Mariupol, they were crowded in basements for three months with no way out, and how could they even do their natural needs, surrounded by dozens of people? And to breathe all this for 3 months. Drinking rainwater (once every 3 weeks). Sitting in the cold. Without medication.
And not long ago, the Russians laughed at the Nazis blocked at Azovstal.

Ronove.media
Partial mobilization - the road to a new Khasavyurt?
The mobilization and prisoner exchange give insight into what the Kremlin's plan is now.
In short, the Russian Federation is tired of war and is actively seeking peace. The mobilization was a great maneuver to hide the reputational damage of the Azov prisoner exchange.
But it's not even about them. This is just the beginning. It looks like a big all-for-all exchange is being prepared in October, brokered by the Saudis and Erdogan. It doesn't really look like escalating the conflict and taking the special military operation to the next level, "we haven't started yet," that's all.
But it explains why there was a partial mobilization. The Kremlin needed people not for an offensive against Kiev or Kharkov, but to hold on to territories for subsequent negotiations. Defending a position for bargaining, as usual.
It feels like everything is nearing some kind of conclusion, and the introduction of a military atmosphere in society simply masks the Kremlin's real intentions. And the Western partners, after all, are not too eager to face an energy crisis in winter.
If in the next few days a campaign is launched across the media to discredit the same war-mongers and angry patriots, then the version of the future with peace is considered to be quite workable.
Again, this is just the Kremlin's plans. "Western partners" can flip the board by changing the terms of the deal, their position allows them to do so. The Russian Federation, alas, is in a position where it can only react rather than create challenges to its competitors and adversaries. In other words, we are playing on someone else's field and according to someone else's rules. The decision to continue the military operation will depend only on the West's desire to continue or end the conflict. And this depends on whether or not it has achieved its goal in the east.

And then the question arises: why did we start all this? To get a couple of new regions and again "Minsk"/"Istanbul" for ten years with shootouts (but officially like peace) and another respite for the Ukr Reich, pumping weapons and training soldiers? And now almost the entire population of Ukraine hates the Russian Federation and therefore automatically loves and glorifies Nazism, Bandera, Zelensky, etc. I don't understand how this works, but it's a fact.
In other words, in a few years there will be SMO 2.0 on even worse terms.
And what was this all about then?

And what about all those prosecutions from 2014 for war crimes in Donbass?

And I wouldn't be surprised if, as a "goodwill gesture," Russia withdrew from Energodar and the Zaporizhzhya NPP and handed it over to the AFU:

Резидент
Our source in the OP told us that the exchange of prisoners went in conjunction with the demilitarization of the ZNPP, which remains under Russian control. The contours of the "Big Deal" include many factors that are still being discussed at the moment and will become known in the near future. Blinken did not fly to Kiev for nothing, and the NABU suspended the functionaries of the Office of the President for stealing the humanitarian cargo.

 

[JEEP]

???? - from Hal Turner so iffy:

ANOTHER GAS PIPELINE BLOWN UP
Another natural gas pipeline has apparently been blown up.

Reports are now flooding-in of a massive pipeline explosion in (or near) the northern boundary of Kherson Oblast, one of the regions where a recently finished Public Referendum saw that region vote to leave Ukraine and join Russia.

Reports are sketchy right now, and information is hard to come by, but according to maps of the gas line network inside Ukraine, this particular pipeline is likely to be the SOYUZ pipeline from Russia to Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

Again, information is sketchy right now.

What __is__ confirmed is that there has been a massive gas pipeline explosion inside Ukraine.

[video in article]

UPDATE 7:58 PM EDT --

More information has come in and it now appears that the gas line involved is FED BY the SOYUZ gas pipeline, but it is NOT the SOYUZ pipeline itself. The gas line involved is now reported to the be single pipeline that feeds natural gas to . . . CRIMEA.

 

[JEEP]

A timely topic to come up posted on whatreallyhappened:

Nazi war criminals became high ranking commanders in NATO after WW2

For decades former Nazis and German war criminals served at the highest echelons of NATO.

Most of them were highly decorated Nazis, who later served in top positions in the Western German army, and were later promoted to serve as Commander and Chief of all NATO forces in Europe.

This was not a unique event, but a very common phenomenon in post WW2 western Europe and especially in Western Germany.

Nazi war criminals and people who supported and helped Hitler to carry out the holocaust and other war crimes, genocides and crimes against Humanity were almost never put on trial for their crimes against the Jews, the Poles, the Greeks, the Russians and the people of Europe, but instead were installed in top positions in NATO, in the western German government, army, industry and western German society at large.

 

[f1esk]

I would caution readers against parsing the information provided by @Lumiere_du_Code. The sources are very doubtful, for example, a telegram channel with 900 subscribers or the same Shariy - a media project. Who is Shari? All sides accuse each other that he works for the enemy, so who does Shariy work for, if in Spain, the Ukrainian refugees who had claims against him did not dare to touch him. It seems to me that he is already in the project of Western special services - his videos on YouTube are not threatened with removal despite the fact that he criticizes the Ukrainian authorities. Hmm?
It seems that an investigation is needed here - why @Lumiere_du_Code merges all this information here. It looks as if he himself could not digest the flow of information, compile it and threw it here what would it be?
I can't believe that information wars have come here, can you imagine the scale?
All I can do at 3am is look at this member's stats - 647 posts and 1187 reactions. Yes, perhaps he is the messiah, and we (rather you, because I joined recently) are blind? Or are his messages not resonating?
It is necessary to understand his messages and who will do it?
There are many questions to the Russian authorities, yes - this is true.
For example, why do not cover the exchange. Why does the SVO sag in some sectors of the front, etc.
But, the conclusions in the text are not made by military experts or profile analysts, but by dubious channels in the telegram and media personalities.
I'll end here, we need to figure out what happened.
And, I thought, I am writing this text in Google translator, there is no time to correct it, if the forum participants leave marks for errors, I will learn. Thank you.

 

[Antony]

From the notes of A.B. Mozgovoy is one of the leaders of the LPR formations:

“I don’t want to argue, but I think that Moscow only creates the appearance of help (equipment, advisers, humanitarian convoys) in order to calm Russian society. It is quite possible that they will not merge Novorossia as a territory. It will be used for the mutual destruction of Russians and Ukrainians, further deepening the split, which over time will turn into an open military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia....

I fight for the right to speak the truth. Not Russian or Ukrainian, but one for all - about my deceived and divided people. The truth is my last weapon in the fight for the honor of my people.

In the meantime, we are killing each other, our executioners are almost openly pushing us to kill. They mock us on Russian and Ukrainian television, either insulting the Ukrainian people and calling them a fascist, or insulting the Russian people, calling them an occupier. From the "objective Russian media" you will not hear words of sympathy for Ukrainians in trouble. They will not say who exactly plunged the whole nation into a spiritual catastrophe. And the Russians themselves no longer hear their brothers. They, like the Ukrainians, were lulled into “patriotic” lies about their own greatness, kindled national pride and arrogance. The main thing that the media is busy with is not to awaken good feelings between our peoples.

Shouting: Donbass stood up against fascism! I will clarify - against Jewish fascism. Because there is no other in Ukraine. I can’t call fascism the stupidity of Ukrainian youth, whom the oligarchs slap a swastika on their uniforms. This is a lie. A blasphemous masquerade in order to evoke a response from the Russian population.

Russian politicians and the media are well aware that Jewish oligarchs stuck Nazi and Bandera paraphernalia on Ukrainian youth. But they stubbornly push the topic of precisely “Ukrainian fascism”. They incite hatred and further aggravate the conflict. They insult people and push them further and further away from Russia.

It was not Donbass or Novorossia that was merged, but simply, without any resistance, Russia gave all of Ukraine and forty million brotherly souls to the world kahal (zionism - mine adding).

The Kremlin pretends to be out of business, modestly silent about its role in the Ukrainian events. However, they did everything to make this war flare up.

Jewish politicians in Ukraine and their media make moronic statements on behalf of the Ukrainian people, making Ukrainians look like fools. The Jewish media in Russia pick up this stupidity and provocation against Ukrainians for the Russian audience.

Unkind laughter hardens. Mocking and laughing at the Ukrainians does not allow us to see the tragedy of the Ukrainian people deprived of their voice. And in the same way, Jewish showmen mock Russia and Russians in the Ukrainian media. They decided everything for us - we should laugh and kill each other.

According to the scenario that the Russian media are working out, the Russian people are fighting against "Ukrainian fascism." According to the scenario of the Ukrainian media, Ukrainians defend the unity of their state. What a lucky rake! As in Civil war. Again, the Russians have different ideas, and their primordial enemies have one - to pit the suckers and rob while they tear each other's forelocks for a "just cause."

His speech in 2015. Then he was killed. As the whole lot of the DPR/LPR leaders - who found out who and why organized that brother’s nation bloodshed. According to the leaks, Medvedchyk was behind their’s elimination. (Mine add).
@utopiyaproject

In russian:
Из записей А.Б. Мозгового — один из лидеров формирований ЛНР:

«Не хочу спорить, но считаю, что Москва только создает видимость помощи (техника, советники, гумконвои), чтобы успокоить российское общество. Вполне возможно, сливать Новороссию как территорию не будут. Ее будут использовать для взаимного уничтожения русских и украинцев, все более углубляя раскол, который со временем перейдет в открытое военное противостояние Украины и России....

Я воюю за право говорить правду. Не российскую и не украинскую, а одну на всех — о моем обманутом и разделенном народе. Правда — это мое последнее оружие в борьбе за честь моего народа.

А пока мы убиваем друг друга, наши палачи почти открыто подталкивают нас к убийству. Они глумятся над нами на российском и украинском телевидении, то оскорбляя украинский народ и называя его фашистом, то оскорбляя русский народ, называя его оккупантом. Из «объективных российских СМИ» не услышишь слов сочувствия к попавшим в беду украинцам. Там не скажут, кто именно вверг целый народ в духовную катастрофу. Да и сами русские уже не слышат своих братьев. Их, как и украинцев, усыпили «патриотической» ложью о собственном величии, разожгли национальную гордыню и спесь. Главное чем заняты СМИ — не пробудить добрых чувств между нашими народами.

Кричат: Донбасс встал против фашизма! Уточню — против еврейского фашизма. Потому что другого в Украине нет. Назвать фашизмом — глупость украинской молодежи, которой олигархи нашлепывают на форму свастику, не могу. Это обман. Кощунственный маскарад с целью вызвать ответную реакцию русского населения.

Российским политикам и СМИ хорошо известно, что фашистскую и бандеровскую атрибутику на украинскую молодежь налепили еврейские олигархи. Но они с упорством продавливают тему именно «украинского фашизма». Разжигают ненависть и еще больше усугубляют конфликт. Оскорбляют людей и все дальше отталкивают их от России.

Слили не Донбасс, не Новороссию, а просто без всякого сопротивления Россия отдала мировому кагалу всю Украину и сорок миллионов братских душ.

В Кремле делают вид, что не при делах, скромно умалчивая о своей роли в украинских событиях. Однако там сделали все, чтобы эта война разгорелась.

Еврейские политики Украины и их СМИ делают дебильные заявления от имени украинского народа, выставляя украинцев дураками. Еврейские СМИ в России подхватывают эту глупость и провокацию против украинцев для российской аудитории.

Недобрый смех ожесточает. Глумление и смех над украинцами не дает увидеть трагедию лишенного голоса украинского народа. И точно так же еврейские шоумены глумятся над Россией и русскими в украинских СМИ. Они за нас все решили — мы должны смеяться и убивать друг друга.

По сценарию, который отрабатывают российские СМИ, русский народ борется с «украинским фашизмом». По сценарию украинских СМИ украинцы защищают единство своего государства. Какие удачные грабли! Как в Гражданскую. Опять у русских идеи разные, а у их исконных врагов одна — стравить простофиль и грабить, пока те будут рвать чубы друг другу за «правое дело».».

Затем он был убит.
@utopiyaproject

 

[JEEP]

Coincidence if gas line in Crimea was blown up?

New Russian Recruits Train in Crimea and Near Ukrainian Border

Moscow said on Wednesday that training for newly mobilised reservists had started across Russia, in places including the Rostov region on the Ukrainian border and the Crimean peninsula seized from Ukraine in 2014.

The Defence Ministry said on its Telegram channel that training had also begun in the Kaliningrad exclave, which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

In Rostov, where Russian forces massed before invading Ukraine on Feb. 24, the ministry said all personnel had already been "provided with the necessary clothing, received weapons and started firing training".President Vladimir Putin last week ordered Russia's first military mobilisation since World War Two, which could see hundreds of thousands more men sent to fight in Ukraine.

In Kaliningrad, where Russia's large military presence includes nuclear-capable missiles, training began on the Baltic Fleet's base.

 

[Benjamin]

Getting ready for 2023?

Türkiye responds to US move on Cyprus​

29 Sep, 2022 16:41

Washington’s decision to lift arms trade restrictions with the island is “inexplicable,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said

Ankara says it will be reinforcing its military presence in northern Cyprus after the United States decided to lift defense-trade restrictions with the island, Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

Speaking to CNN Turk, Erdogan said Washington’s decision on the sale of arms to the island was “inexplicable in terms of content and timing.”

Earlier this month, the US State Department announced that, for the fiscal year 2023, it will suspend a long-standing ban on the sale of US weapons to the Republic of Cyprus, stating the country had “met the necessary conditions.”

The US noted that the restrictions will stay lifted as long as Cyprus cooperates with Washington in its anti-money-laundering regulations and continues to deny Russian military vessels access to its ports.

Erdogan, however, blasted the move, stating that Washington “overlooks and even encourages the steps by the Cypriot-Greek duo that threaten peace and stability in the eastern Mediterranean.” The Turkish leader said lifting the arms-sales ban would lead to an “armament race” and hinder efforts to reach a peace deal on the island.

“Will we stand by? We cannot,” the president said, noting that Türkiye already has over 35,000 troops on the island and will reinforce them with land, naval and aerial weapons, ammunition and vehicles.

Cyprus has been a hot button issue for Türkiye ever since fighting broke out between Greek and Turkish Cypriots in 1963. After a military coup in 1974 the island was divided into essentially two administrative zones.

Two thirds of the island is run by a Greek Cypriot administration, is known internationally as the Republic of Cyprus and is a full member of the EU, while the rest of the island calls itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus – a de facto state that is only recognized by Türkiye.

 

[Pierre]

The harsh of reality of exchange rates despite the manipulation of the "markets". As Biden said "the sanctions work"...for destroying Europe!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575500911514103809

 

[JEEP]

Seems relevant - from GlobalResearch:

Weapons Firms Install 50 Staff Inside the UK Ministry of Defence

More than 50 paid employees of global arms companies are working inside the UK’s Ministry of Defence, openDemocracy can reveal, sparking questions about conflicts of interest and national security.

They include nine staffers on long-term secondment from the UK’s biggest weapons manufacturer, BAE Systems, some of whom have been embedded inside the department for years.

Last year, the company made more than £4.1bn in sales from the MoD, boasting about its “strong and long-standing relationships” with the UK government. Almost all of this money was spent through contracts that were awarded without competitive tender.

The government would not say whether the secondment scheme represented a conflict of interest.

 

[Cosmos]

Sheikh Imran Hosein‘s perspective on the current situation:

 

[Search]

I checked the web about the 4142 Law in Ukraine. It is called The Law on the public health system.

There are plenty of misinformation. I have few sources which looks more accurate and more closer to the truth, that I will share later on.

As far as I understand it, in a short way, looks like this :

1) People in Ukraine have to had 11 vaccines instead of 6;

2) Most likely you will be banned/fired from work if you are not vaccinated because you may "make harm" to the one who got vaccine, yours children wont be able to study even if it the study is online;

3) The minestry of health would have much more power; to make quarantine measures, to apply quarantine, to decide whi is spreading some viruses, etc.;

4) yours belongings, like a car, smartphone, some of your property may be confiscated according to that, that it may be infected, without of an explanation how it would be done according to the law;

5) it would be really hard for you to move without vaccines;

Ah, 6) The ukrainian people will no longer use asbestos;

Et cetera.

The thing is the government try to apply this law during military state in Ukraine.
And a lot of stuff is banned according to that, e.g. rallies.

It was signed today by a president of Ukraine.
Here is the link to the official Ukrainian Pairlament website.

 

[Chaze]

Big Serge just shared an important substack:

The War Has Just Begun

Quick takeaways — the Annexation:

I think, however, that people lost focus as to what the referenda and the ensuing annexation means. Western talking points focused on the illegitimacy of the votes and the illegality of any annexation, but this is really not very interesting or important. The legitimacy of annexation is derived from whether or not Russian administration can succeed in these regions. Legitimacy, as such, is merely a question of efficacy of state power. Can the state protect, extract, and adjudicate?
In any case, what is far more interesting than the technicalities of the referenda is what the decision to annex these regions says about Russian intentions. Once these regions become formally annexed, they will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity - non-negotiables, in other words.

Force Generation:

Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

Depleting NATO:

The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

The Winter War:

Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

Nordstream and Escalation:

Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up. The *only* feasible scenario in which Russia might be responsible for the sabotage would be if some hardliner faction within the Russian government felt that Putin was moving too slowly, and wanted to force an escalation. This would imply, however, that Putin is losing internal control, and there is no evidence whatsoever for such a theory.

On The Precipice:

Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

I hope that you read the entire substack though, because it’s a pretty dead-on summary with an extremely feasible prognosis.

This is going to be a winter like no other.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574799658915749893