Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

An interview in French with historylegend analyzing the tactical, strategic and geopolitical situation, which shows that Zelenski is smarter than most people think. With the Kursk salient making a ceasefire impossible, Trump's promise, if he is to keep it, necessarily implies that his team's political action will be truly revolutionary in every respect if it is to be realistic.
In any case, there are some rather rare arguments in this discussion based on a precise study of the situation.
you may have subtitles in the youtube link

reinfovf.com

Idriss J.Aberkane - Comment Trump et Poutine vont-ils négocier en Ukraine? | avec Alexandre Robert de History Legends

Une question simple: quelles cartes Trump et Poutine ont-ils chacun en main? D'un côté la Russie semble vouloir accélérer ses opérations pour revendiquer un maximum de terrain d'ici le 20 janvier, de l'autre Trump est connu pour avoir toujours une maîtrise particulièrement profonde de ses jetons...
reinfovf.com reinfovf.com

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
 

Ukraine Launches First ATACMS Strike On Russia, Sending Markets Reeling Amid WW3 Fears​

by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024

"For the first time, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles," RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday."

"RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS. This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine
  • 5 missiles were shot down, 1 damaged; no casualties reported
  • Missile debris caused fire in a military installation
"The market reaction is logical, one could feel already yesterday that the tension, was rising," said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France, who was quoted by Bloomberg, adding, "For the moment the market reaction is contained, some are still in a wait-and see- mode."

And this from RT: (plenty of speculation in the comments of this RT article)

Kiev fires ATACMS missiles at Russia’s Bryansk Region – MOD​


"According to the statement, Kiev fired six long-range ballistic missiles identified as ATACMS early on Tuesday morning. Five of them were intercepted with S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems, while another was damaged and hit the ground at a Russian military site in Bryansk Region, causing a fire that was quickly dealt with. The Russian military claimed that no damage was caused by the incident."

"The Ukrainian military has launched multiple US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia’s Bryansk Region, some of which have been intercepted, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday."

Ukraine's ATACMS Strike On Russia Comes After Putin Lowers Threshold For Nukes | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

www.rt.com

Kiev fires ATACMS missiles at Russia’s Bryansk Region – MOD

Ukraine has launched attacks deep inside Russia using ATACMS missiles donated by the US, the Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed
www.rt.com www.rt.com
 
Last edited:
Medvedev reminds people of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858818104370884949

And Lavrov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858886647594602827

So that doesn't look good. However, the Russians know very well that they only have to wait 2 months and the situation will have changed entirely with Trump in power. Historically, they have not overreacted to provocations, so my guess is they will punish Ukraine hard but not respond to NATO directly while they wait. Or if they choose to do something against NATO, it will be more of a symbolic slap than real damage. If things don't change with Trump, then they may choose otherwise of course. But I'm pretty sure Trump is sincere when he says he wants to end this war.

It will be a long 2 months. NATO demons will do their worst to escalate and Russia will have to exercise great patience and restraint while dong their best not to look weak.
 
Windmill knight said:
Medvedev reminds people of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858818104370884949

And Lavrov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858886647594602827

So that doesn't look good. However, the Russians know very well that they only have to wait 2 months and the situation will have changed entirely with Trump in power. Historically, they have not overreacted to provocations, so my guess is they will punish Ukraine hard but not respond to NATO directly while they wait. Or if they choose to do something against NATO, it will be more of a symbolic slap than real damage. If things don't change with Trump, then they may choose otherwise of course. But I'm pretty sure Trump is sincere when he says he wants to end this war.

It will be a long 2 months. NATO demons will do their worst to escalate and Russia will have to exercise great patience and restraint while dong their best not to look weak.
Click to expand...
Good discussion between Nima and Pepe, Re: deep state attack on Russia, quoting Medvedev 'unhinged'.
 
Windmill knight said:
Medvedev reminds people of Russia's new nuclear doctrine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858818104370884949

And Lavrov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858886647594602827

So that doesn't look good. However, the Russians know very well that they only have to wait 2 months and the situation will have changed entirely with Trump in power. Historically, they have not overreacted to provocations, so my guess is they will punish Ukraine hard but not respond to NATO directly while they wait. Or if they choose to do something against NATO, it will be more of a symbolic slap than real damage. If things don't change with Trump, then they may choose otherwise of course. But I'm pretty sure Trump is sincere when he says he wants to end this war.

It will be a long 2 months. NATO demons will do their worst to escalate and Russia will have to exercise great patience and restraint while dong their best not to look weak.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure that Russia won't take the bait this time around, either. It will likely just mean further artificial "escalation" at this point. I think they also watch more or less closely what happens in the US in regard to Trump, and IF he gets into power, and IF he tries to end the Ukraine situation and/or wants to negotiate, I think the Russians will at least listen. Putin will surely try to use whatever Trump will do to their advantage (looking at it from a bird's eye position) fully knowing that you still can't really trust the Americans, especially when taking into consideration that as soon as Trump is gone, this will probably very different again. And I also think that Trump might be a bit surprised how Russia will respond to his initiatives in regard to Ukraine. He might be overestimating his power/position/knowledge in regard to what he can do with Russia and the situation and what he can't do. We might see sort of a Tucker-Putin meeting 2.0 in which the adult in the room might teach Trump a lesson or two. I'm pretty sure no matter how much Putin believes that Trump might be sincere in his efforts (and/or likes him and/or his bravery), he will, first and foremost, consider what is best for Russia in the long run.

It should also be remembered that from Putins/Russias perspective the last Trump administration wasn't as rosy as many Americans and/or westerners might think: Apparently Trump introduced the harshest and biggest sanctions on Russia and that is surely one reason why Putin refused to say that he would like to see a Trump administration.
 
iamthatis said:
Would the Pentagon actually let Biden make this declaration despite their opposition, tho? I find that hard to believe.
Click to expand...
Well I do not know much how the internal struggles and battles go in Washington, when there are strong differences in opinion.

I don't recall the details, but I recall Trump ordered the withdrawal of US Troops from Syria, but he was ignored. So there is some kind of precedent there for just disobeying orders, I suppose.

I note that I have not yet seen an official announcement from the Whitehouse, this information has instead come through the media, namely the New York Times I believe - so maybe that means something? I dunno.

In any case, I was reading tonight that 6 ATACMS hit Bryansk region within Russia today like has been mentioned in the previous posts in this thread.

In my opinion, since launching missiles into Russia that can only be operated by the USA is a real red line for Russia (unlike those fake red lines made up by the West continually the last 3 years) I suspect Russia will make some kind of response.

However there are many kinds of responses it can choose from, as many analysts point out in their discussions on the net.

Today when listening to podcasts, I stumbled upon good old, sometimes very emotional, Scott Ritter, saying that Russia will wipe out the Kiev leadership with devastating missiles and bombs. (Yes, that would mean high number of civilian casualties in Kiev!) He said non-nuclear bombs would be used as that is not necessary. --> Well I would be very surprised if he was right to say it so confidently. I highly doubt that would be the first thing they would do.

We will see.
 
@Breton " I note that I have not yet seen an official announcement from the Whitehouse" Nor has anyone! Did Biden say it? Can he now say; what's all the fuss about? I never said that! And...maybe he didn't.

Biden committing ‘unconstitutional аct of war’ – US lawmaker ​

"Allowing Ukraine use American missiles against Russia is an impeachable act, Congressman Thomas Massie has claimed"


“By authorizing long range missiles to strike inside Russia, Biden is committing an unconstitutional Act of War that endangers the lives of all US citizens,” Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday."

“This is an impeachable offense, but the reality is he’s an emasculated puppet of a deep state,” he added."

"According to anonymous officials who spoke to the media,"

"While the White House has neither confirmed nor denied the news officially, a volley of missiles was fired at Russia’s Bryansk Region early on Tuesday."

Also this from Turkey:

NATO member says Russia has right to self-defense​


“I think that this issue must be considered by NATO officials. Russia has the right and ability to protect itself and to take measures for its defense. And it was compelled to take these measures,” Erdogan added."

www.rt.com

Biden committing ‘unconstitutional аct of war’ – US lawmaker

President Joe Biden ought to be impeached for letting Ukraine strike Russia with US-supplied missiles Congressman Thomas Massie has said
www.rt.com www.rt.com

www.rt.com

NATO member says Russia has right to self-defense

Moscow’s updated nuclear doctrine is a response to threats and needs to be taken seriously, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said
www.rt.com www.rt.com
 
It's strange how the whole world is reacting to this escalation. It's comparable, if not worse, than the Cuban missiles crisis, and yet some politicians and mainstream journalist are acting as if they waited for this their whole life, while ordinary people, who are able to sense seriousness of this situation are left with nothing to say. It reminds me of a song of Czech folk musician - Jaromir Nohavica - who a few years ago received an award from Putin.

1732054916801.png


I know it's not the best thread for songs and lyrics but here is my rough translation of it so that you can understand what I mean.

You want, my dear, to come only tomorrow
But tomorrow may be too late
I'm just a collection of bones and protein groups
And loaded rockets measure straight in my weaknesses
And also in my head

Please better come today to wait with me for tomorrow
And let's share ourselves together
Before an extraterrestrial journalist arrives
And starts counting the casualties and drops of blood like the fruits of a rowan tree
And writes a news about it

And then on the first page of the Cosmic Courier
There will be reports about the Earth dying
Generals’ cords, ambassadors’ tailcoats
Exclusive photos of flaring up missiles
With different emblems
Yeah, that'll be a great news
Earth levelled with an earth
And a bonus map included

I was thrown into this life without my consent
And without my consent I'll be kicked out of it
So please do me the last small favour
And don't say it to my face that you do it according to my will
And that all this is also my wish

The world is a slurry beetle who rolls its ball
Like in hypnosis
And beautifully turns round to the circle, and around the axis
Until dizziness cause it digs a hole in the ground
So that it could survive this bombarding

And then on the first page of the Cosmic Courier
There will be reports about the Earth dying
Generals’ cords, ambassadors’ tailcoats
Exclusive photos of flaring up missiles
With different emblems
Yeah, that'll be a great news
Earth levelled with an earth
And a bonus map included

You want, my dear, to come only tomorrow
But tomorrow may be too late
Nobody listens to us so let's listen to ourselves
How our hearts beat, one more time, one more bit
Ah, here on this Earth.

So please better come today to wait with me for tomorrow
And let's share ourselves together
I know I won't be afraid when I lay next to you
They'll maybe find us laying like that in a million years, these guests from cosmos
And cover us with stones

And then on the first page of the Cosmic Courier
There will be reports about the Earth dying
Generals’ cords, ambassadors’ tailcoats
Exclusive photos of flaring up missiles
With different emblems
Yeah, that'll be a great news
Earth levelled with an earth
And a bonus map included

Countless graves of stones
They're all covered in silence
And billions of Romeo's
And billions of Juliet's
 
A few days ago there was an "anniversary" - 1000 days have passed since the beginning of the SMO and many often try to sum up some, at least, intermediate results.
In Ukraine, 906.5 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed and wounded in 1,000 days
Since the beginning of the special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost about 906.5 thousand people killed and wounded, excluding the missing. These data are complemented by economic and social problems that threaten the stability of the country.

Ukraine's public debt reached $13.8 billion, which put the country in third place in the list of the largest debtors to the IMF. The hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar reached 41:1. At the same time, the outflow of people continues to grow: 14 million people have left abroad. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 8 million people left Ukraine in 2022, and by 2024 the number of migrants had increased to 11 million.

The number of the armed forces of Ukraine has grown from 260 thousand to 1.5 million due to large-scale mobilization and the involvement of foreign legionnaires. The Armed Forces of Ukraine included volunteers from Europe, the USA, Africa, Latin America and Asia. Despite this, Russian troops continue to destroy NATO military equipment: the destruction of at least one sample of each type of equipment was recorded, in total more than 7 thousand units.
Click to expand...
На Украине за 1000 дней погибли и ранены 906,5 тысяч украинских военных

For some reason, nothing surprises me here. Only one article and one comment.
The bloody catastrophe — the operation on the left bank of the Dnieper near Krynok in 2023 — Britain convinced Ukraine to start

Britain convinced Ukraine to start the operation that turned into a bloody disaster on the left bank of the Dnieper near Krynok in 2023 .

The maximum task was for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reach the border with Crimea, for which the marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had to overcome an 80-kilometer stretch occupied by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, writes the Ukrainian edition of Ukrainska Pravda, citing sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The minimum task is to occupy and expand the bridgehead on the left bank, cut the M—14 highway 5-7 km from the coast and pull back Russian forces from Donbass and from the Zaporozhye direction. The operation involved Marines, many of whom were trained in Britain.

But each of the targets failed (!) due to poor planning and insufficient fire support on the other side. The Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered huge losses and withdrew from their positions.

"We were told that it was necessary to break through only the first line of Russian defense, and they said that they did not have a second line," a source in the command of the 36th brigade said.

Initially, the operation was supposed to be carried out in early summer, but it was postponed due to the explosion of the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP. There were high hopes for the mission and it was believed that it could significantly change the course of hostilities.

As a result, by the beginning of 2024, the extreme complexity of the situation in which the AFU units in Krynki found themselves became obvious. And already in winter, the Ukrainian forces began to withdraw from there. By May, the situation had become catastrophic, and in July the last AFU soldiers left the left bank of the Dnieper.
Click to expand...

Sergey Rusanov —
the northern Black Sea region would have a head, there would be something to think about. At 22, their friends "advised them" to "simply fight", then at 23 they "advised" the "Krynka operation", now they "advise" them to start firing missiles at the Russian Federation... Did I miss anything?
Click to expand...
https://rusvesna.su/news/1731992513

Несколько дней назад был "юбилей" - с начала SMO прошло 1000 дней, и многие часто пытаются подвести какие-то, хотя бы, промежуточные итоги.
Почему то здесь меня ничего не удивляет. Только одна статья и один комментарий.
 
Just an FYI I ran across this video today, pointing out a tweet from the US State Department - which is a bit suspicious and may hint of a false flag.
His point being that it's weird that they know of a potential airstrike occurring - not something you'd announce(?)

The tweet in question:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1859104054619636107
Ukraine: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv received specific information of a potential significant air attack on Nov 20. The Embassy will be closed and recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced.
Click to expand...
 
Here's a plausible scenario for the NYT announcement, and the ATACMs strike - it is Ukraine's attempt to bring NATO into a larger war, not a Biden/Pentagon attempt to derail Trump's 1st term. Could be both, of course, but the author makes a compelling case for the former.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859062533761511929

Let's talk about Ukraine trying to start World War Three last night. In the spirit of chess, I'll call it the "Two Box Gambit."

The Russians updated their nuclear policy recently to state that they consider proxy attacks on their territory as constituting joint action by both the proxy and sponsor. This measure was obviously intended to deter NATO from attacking them using Ukraine as boxing glove. However, the critical thing to remember here is that Zelensky's regime is not - or at least not always - a boxing glove.

Ukraine actually has a great deal of strategic agency and "wags the dog" of its sponsors as much or more than it actually serves as a loyal proxy. And the only way Zelensky has - and has ever had - to win this war is for a wider war to break out between NATO and Russia, which would give him and his regime some hope for survival via a NATO victory. As such he has consistently sought to foment exactly that war. Which brings us to last night.

First, Ukraine likely planted a story in the New York Times - a loyal outlet that could be expected to carry water for Zelensky, and one which bizarrely retains the prestige of a newspaper of record - to the effect that the United States had given them authorization to attack pre-2014 Russian territory with ATACMS. As near as I can determine, this story was simply false - the Biden Administration had made no such decision, and any discussions around the matter involved a very limited authorization restricted to the Kursk border area, not some sweeping go-ahead.

Now for the first box. Ukraine has never been punished by its sponsors for even the most outrageous violations of weapons end-user agreements. These are the same people who straight-face claimed the Russians were shelling downtown Donetsk with 155mm NATO-standard artillery. They don't care. And for whatever reason, NATO has consistently refused to publicly repudiate them no matter their behavior. So this NYT story served to box NATO into at least acquiescing to their plan, and to make it EXTREMELY clear to the Russians that their subsequent actions were fully supported by NATO.

Critically, the Ukrainians could then proceed to the next step of their plan independently. NATO advisors don't closely monitor, let alone operate, Ukrainian GMLRS systems. Unlike more complicated weapons like Storm Shadow, the AFU can thus do what they want with them - and their small stockpile of remaining ATACMS missiles reserved for a rainy day.

Then, a matter of hours before Putin was due to formally sign this nuclear policy document, the Ukrainians shot several ATACMS missiles at an ammunition depot in Bryansk Oblast - a large, static target that required no sophisticated ISR assets to engage. This aimed to create the largest and most public provocation possible, in a manner that was explicitly set out per new Russian policy as a joint NATO-Ukrainian attack, via the simple method of creating an extremely large explosion. And when that attack was largely defeated without inflicting significant damage (nothing appeared on FIRMS, among other things), they flooded the internet with video from other incidents to create the impression otherwise among the public, and even released a rare official video of the launchers firing.

This is the second box. The thinking here was clearly that the Russians are now boxed into retaliation against NATO for such a flagrant violation of their red lines, which will spark off World War Three and save Zelensky's hide. Unfortunately for Zelensky, Putin isn't an idiot and he isn't going to bite on such an elementary gambit. And the only thing he needs to do to foil this entire convoluted plan is... nothing! The Russians are handily winning right now and would gain nothing and stand to lose a great deal by kicking off a wider conflict.So long as this doesn't become a trend - and that's what bloodcurdling diplomatic notes and an incoming Trump Administration are for - it's just Zelensky's umpteenth stupid plan to drag NATO and Russia into war with each other. The people who matter all know this, and nobody is going to fall for this fool's mate and start WWIII.

* It's mildly noteworthy that the Ukrainians seem to have screwed up the timing and launched the attack before Putin actually signed the document in question - perhaps they were rattled by the cold official reaction to the NYT story and decided to move up their timetable? In any event it does give Putin a very legalistic escape hatch.
Click to expand...
 
iamthatis said:
Here's a plausible scenario for the NYT announcement, and the ATACMs strike - it is Ukraine's attempt to bring NATO into a larger war, not a Biden/Pentagon attempt to derail Trump's 1st term. Could be both, of course, but the author makes a compelling case for the former.
Click to expand...
That would mean that Ukraine launched ATACMS by its own initiative. I think it's something they would do if they could, but weren't long-range missiles supposed to be able to operate only with the assistance of NATO technicians and data from satellite and so on?
 
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