Hello, although the matter is more or less clarified here, I was also reading the various treaties and their annexes as a personal exercise to see if there was anything that could be significant enough to validate the possibility that something could be understood at some point that would support the controversial idea that airplanes should be parked in the open air to avoid unnecessary tensions and suspicions of the other party (the 3 STARTs, the SALTs and the Open Skies Treaty), I tried hard not to anticipate and thus find something since my position at this point is that there would be nothing and indeed there was nothing, what I DID find is that the STARTs are officially explained by the United States State Department to avoid false interpretations among people who were not present during the negotiations or did not participate in their constitution, it is in these explanations that what was already said by Article X is emphasized even more:
ARTICLE X
Article X establishes obligations relating to the use of national technical means of verification of compliance with the provisions of the Treaty. "National technical means" is a term used in a variety of arms control treaties; it refers to those systems, such as reconnaissance satellites, used to collect information useful in verifying compliance with the provisions of the Treaty.
Paragraph 1 establishes that the Parties agree:
(1) to use national technical means of verification at their disposal in a manner consistent with generally recognized principles of international law;
(2) not to interfere with the national technical means of verification of the other Party operating in accordance with this Article (e.g., a Party may not destroy, blind, jam, or otherwise interfere with the national technical means of verification of the other Party that are used in a manner consistent with generally recognized principles of international law); and
(3) not to use concealment measures that impede verification, by national technical means of verification, of compliance with the provisions of the Treaty.
Paragraph 2 clarifies that the obligation not to use concealment measures includes the obligation not to conceal ICBMs, SLBMs, ICBM launchers, or the association between ICBMs or SLBMs and their launchers at test ranges. However, the obligation not to use concealment measures does not apply to cover or concealment practices at ICBM bases or to the use of environmental shelters for strategic offensive arms, since such prohibitions would disrupt normal operations.
The Parties agreed in Part Eight of the Protocol to provisionally apply Article X.
Link:
Article-By-Article Analysis of New START Treaty Documents
And in the protocol (Let us remind any reader who joins that this refers to on-site inspections):
Section VI - Inspections of ICBMs and SLBMs Including the Warheads on Them, Deployed Heavy Bombers Including the Nuclear Armaments Located on Them, and Deployed and Non-Deployed Launchers of ICBMs and Launchers of SLBMs, Conducted in Accordance with Paragraph 2 of Article XI of the Treaty (Type One Inspections)
Paragraph 12 establishes that inspection teams have the right, at air bases for heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments, to inspect:
(a) The three designated deployed heavy bombers in order to confirm that the number of nuclear armaments located on them is as declared for that heavy bomber during the pre-inspection procedures, as provided for in Part Six of the Annex on Inspection Activities to the Protocol;
(b) The designated heavy bombers equipped for non-nuclear armaments at certain air bases, as provided for in the Third Agreed Statement in Part Nine of the Protocol and in the Annex on Inspection Activities to the Protocol; and
(c) Structures within the boundaries of the inspection site diagram of the air base declared not to contain a heavy bomber in order to confirm that such structures do not contain any heavy bombers.
In other words, it is concluded again that shelters-hangars can be built for heavy nuclear bombers without the need for satellite monitoring, and therefore the right to inspect these shelters during visits to know what is inside was agreed upon... This point could not have been agreed upon if any of the other treaties mentioned required having nuclear bombers in the open air.
It's more complicated than that.
I agree that I might have been too harsh and hasty, but here comes one aspect of my frustration (not an excuse). As I said, I'd been coming across this issue for a long time, since the first such attack in December 2022, to be precise, mostly in the Russian corner of the Internet. I researched available open sources and it looked like there was no requirement of the kind we discuss. I did what I could. I understood the motivations of each approach, I think, which is well expressed by Até in his recent Propaganda vs. Excuse video.
You say that it is not an excuse, but without meaning to be cliché or melodramatic, understanding what Jeep said and what you are trying to convey, that one should try to remain calm and not give in to emotions or the conditions of the situation in order to avoid possible overreactions, it is a valid excuse for me, come on, there is no pride in your words and you are being completely open and thorough in your explanation, things happen, there was a set of factors that put you in a relatively difficult position that we were not aware of (that counts); but my grossly careless post led to what happened and yet you kept your composure and gave me a detailed response without aggression or words that were not appropriate despite having a certain degree of annoyance in it, (I should have asked, but the "dopamine" part implied that you had a bad time outside the forum on this topic, I tried a little of it later) I did not feel at all belittled or personally attacked since there was none of that in the message, on the contrary I felt very grateful and I took it as an urgent call to correct an unattended facet of mine that does not do any good to my personal growth or to the forum ... in fact perhaps a "too soft" response would not have woken me up or created such a significant impression.
And just in case, no, I didn't let certain feelings of self-sabotage for what I did become more widespread than just noticing them. I took a better path of seeing my inappropriate action and what I should do to correct it without hesitation. It's enough for me ("it's not that big a deal," but I really wouldn't like to continue being so vulnerable and unserious about something so basic).
It is a complicated problem and would ask for a in-deep research and discussion. Looks like I simply projected my perception of the difficulty, thinking that anyone bringing it up at the very least came across the opposite views and has an idea that things are not that simple as they seem. My apologies,
@ApotheosisMMC.
As I said, in my case I didn't even do my homework, and although you may have thought about it more or less unconsciously, you didn't close the debate as such either. You perhaps only wanted more seriousness and for the answers on this matter to show a truly thorough analysis, given that this is how it should be and it hadn't been like that either here or elsewhere.
That's the dynamic I've observed many times. Do I need to mention that I care about Russia a lot? So it was frustrating.
2/ I don't think that I'm alone here with this understanding, far from it. And here comes the difference between Sott and the Forum. Sott has its own mission as already said, the forum was established as a platform for research most of all. So it is frustrating to see a complicated issue covered with a few dumped tweets, very often with no one's thoughts, nothing. Are we going to learn anything this way? Come as close too the truth as possible?
Anyway, that's my thinking, FWIW.
Of course, and I partly related your answer to this. You're very dedicated to your commitment to this great place, and therefore you're very interested in protecting the forum environment and ensuring it doesn't degenerate. When you mentioned in the past that you'd discussed avoiding, as much as necessary, posts with very little analysis and just a bunch of tweets, I agreed, as did many others.
I see that the underlying idea is more than pointing out that this doesn't have its place in certain contexts; it was that it doesn't do us any good in terms of generally seeking the truth, developing critical thinking, and other faculties, and of course, it makes us vulnerable and weak. This isn't a place where people participate just to hang out, and it would be a huge shame to lose what we've built.
As far as I know they were not the first neither the last ones. Heard it too many times to count, and who brought it first is not so important, at least to me. I may be wrong, but guess (not pointing fingers at anyone) that in some cases, some commentators just repeated what they heard from other respected sources by simply trusting them and not having enough time for own research.
Here goes my understanding, FWIW. It's to some extent the same situation as with RT, Sott, Sputnik and numerous respected (here) English sources (RES): they broadcast to English speaking, mostly Western public; their main mission is to counter the overwhelming Western corporate media (WCM) warmongering propaganda - propaganda in its worst possible version. It's not in their interest to talk about Russia's weaknesses, so they counter the WCM with as much of truth as possible, and spice it with opposite propaganda (in its acceptable version). Once in a while some of them may be wrong (just like anyone). So far so good. But.
1/ Sometimes their tactic backfires. I mean Russian interest here. It's complicated, so I'm going to use some simplifications to keep it reasonably brief.
- Russia is far from being perfect, many things don't work as they should. In peace time it can be tolerated or patched up, in war time - not so much.
- In the excellent
interview with Fyodor Lukyanov by Glenn Diesen, Lukyanov explains Russia (with limited amount of propaganda) and points out that no matter how authoritarian "Putin regime" is presented as being, the authorities attentively listen to the population, moods, trends, etc. (complicated).
- Russia is torn emotionally and mentally between East and West, Eastern and Western ways of being, ideologies, economics, and so on, it has been so since Peter the Great time. The West is still a big authority to many Russians. Slightly less since the SVO started.
So what happens, when Russian authorities neglect something, make mistakes, "screw up"? They cover it up, obviously. The RES group tries to cover it up. Some knowledgeable and reasonable well-meaning Russian voices try to bring attention to the issue as it is the only chance to have it fixed. But then Russian media and individual commentators (for various reasons) bring the RES group's inputs, after all they have good sources, intelligence, great experience and knowledge, and are in/from the West! Result: No lesson is going to be learned, no improvement made. That's what I mean by backfiring. Excuses are served on a silver plate. I'm quite certain that that was exactly the case with the START affair: with their best intentions, they might have helped to make things worse for Russia, already back in Dec 2022.
Of course, echoes of Youlik constantly come in here, complaining to some extent about "Iron Dimon." He's not the only one who's done so regarding Medvedev or other officials, or regarding other issues related to Russia (I've also noticed it when occasionally searching for information on Russian forums). Putin himself, without being perfect (although more than enough by far), complained about the parquet generals and has come a long way to improve the country. We've seen a string of lies during the SMO many times. There's no need to idealize Russia or say that the situation is catastrophic, to note that there are many mundane problems, some of them particular, as you've explained, due to the situation they find themselves in.
I won't continue with this and will return to the topic since you've explained it very well and the ramifications are easy to understand. Besides, the point was to point out why this issue regarding START III has possibly become so widespread. The day after I posted my first post on this topic, I browsed Russian forums and websites (like Topwar) to see what they were saying. I saw some division, but mostly people complaining about the incompetence of the military authorities, calling for revenge, feeling outraged by what happened, and pointing to Copium's explanations regarding the treaty being ambiguous or stating that the planes should be left exposed. In part, I simply think the issue became widespread due to careless readings and misinterpretations (and repeating what others said), which in turn combined with a superficial self-confirmation bias resulting from being dazzled by seeing the planes exposed without any apparent explanation to justify it.
This time, the issue became even more widespread, given that on social media, speed often prevails over analysis, and the situation was too shocking for many to think calmly without getting carried away. I said I understood your frustration because I saw a Spanish guy a few days later who I considered (and still consider to some extent) to be sufficiently well informed and rigorous in dealing with these issues (he is dedicated to debunking things about NAFOS and is generally at odds with them all) point out in X that there were many people who continued to tell him in the comments that this aspect of the treaty was not true. As I had occasionally spoken to him and had seen him readily admit when he was wrong on some point, I told him that I thought the same at first, but that after a more careful reading and in context, there was no such agreement in any of the treaties and that I would like someone to explain to me where it was implied that this was the case. People came to me with screenshots similar to the one I brought here to the forum; that the AI had confirmed it and that was the case. I told them that the title gave the context and that reading the treaty you could see that the exhibits referred to on-site reviews and therefore I pointed out that they shouldn't trust the AIs. I also said that START III was the one that had validity over the others and that Article X said that the bombers were exempt from being left in the open if desired.
They told me that I had an exaggerated ego to say that the AI was wrong and they also refused to read the article out of laziness; they had already "done their work" and had been kind enough to answer me and I was being obtuse and ungrateful. the guy himself came to tell me that I had swallowed all the Ukrainian Nazi propaganda from the NAFOs that the Russians were drunks who were spinning on the runway and that my problem was that I was taking some points too literally (by this point I realized that I had started to feel gaslighting and it caused me some grace to remember your words about this at that moment), after that I adjusted my language on purpose, although I had not been rude to anyone, I knew that I could not be so dry if I wanted to get something and I told him without lying that I did not care about the cheap NAFOS, that my request was sincere and that I only wanted to know the truth, that I understood that he was probably obfuscated, so I promised to be totally cooperative and open if he took the trouble to attend to my request ... I was completely prepared for him to come with something more substantial, but he only called me "poor thing", that the US had their B-2s parked outdoors on Diego Garcia because Putin ordered them to.
I told him it wasn't true, that the B-2s had their hangars at Withman Air Base (By the way, START I, which is where the controversy mainly arises, was signed in 1991, but there are photos from 1993 of the aforementioned base in which you can see all the B-2 hangars that are there today, already built at that time, so even that treaty is ruled out in the aspect of requiring that the planes be outdoors.) and that in Diego Garcia they had portable hangars despite being outdoors for certain periods of time as seen in certain photos as we have already seen.
Not receiving any more answers, I think that after your previous message you had decided that you were not going to dedicate any more time to me.
Finally I went to see what good old Simplicius had to say about this issue, he didn't buy into all this "controversy" at all, he made a minor mistake by pointing out that although the B-2s had hangars at Whitman, they didn't have them at Diego Garcia, he probably didn't notice this other type of hangars for some reason, but in general he stressed the now obvious fact that other types of bombers were not kept in hangars, including cheaper ones and in greater numbers like the B-52 for practical reasons due to their size, it's worth noting that part of his article included a video that he himself had published a week before the events of Operation Spiderweb in which Defense Minister Andrei Belousov was presented with a proposal for a hangar for a TU-160 in this case, so the idea of building them was still around.
Ukraine has carried out a mass drone strike operation on Russian strategic bases, damaging and potentially destroying several Tu-95 strategic bombers as well as some additional Tu-22s and transport planes:
substack.com
So, well, in conclusion, there was nothing in the treaties, and this misconception is something that gained much more traction than it should have in recent times, partly due to the initial chaos and the AIs that emphatically affirmed it.
The whole issue of having the planes out in the open responded to practical reasons for resources, and the hangars weren't perceived as sufficiently necessary. After all, the Russians relied on their anti-drone and anti-aircraft defenses and on moving planes between bases to more distant locations (which worked well enough). Almost no one could foresee and be prepared for an operation in which drones would take off from trucks infiltrated deep inside the country and far from the battlefront. Many times in war, things happen that later seem obvious or resulted in some degree of catastrophe because certain vulnerabilities weren't properly covered.
PS: Curiously, Big Serge
points out that both the Chinese and the Russians were experimenting some time ago with the same model and were criticized for the idea of using weapons camouflaged as civilian objects.
A couple of final candies:

