In talking about it with some friends, I had the idea that, rather than 'playing chess', Putin and Trump are sort of playing bridge. In bridge you have a partner in the game, but when the game begins, you don't know what the strength of cards your partner has, nor they you.
Trump's bluster and Putin & co's rhetoric seem to have a signalling subtext based on information that, as you say, we don't have, Is it a way of communicating how each is handling how political developments progress in their respective situations? Trump has said some outrageous things that Putin has received relatively calmly, but Putin himself has put out some tough statements in response to critics in his own government. They are both walking tightropes, that's for sure.
Perhaps more was agreed on in Alaska than we know, and Rubio has had contacts with various Russian officials since then.
