Question about the US hysteria cycle

[palestine]

Hello,

I couldn't find an answer to a question I am asking myself.

Is the people's favourable reaction, to Trump's action, in Venezuela, a worrying problem?

A. Lobaczewski explains that Germany underwent the buildup of personality distorsion (1890-1900), to then enter a phase of hysteria (1900), this leading to a pathocracy, manifesting via Hitler (1935).

---

A. Lobaczewski provides precisions about "European hysteria" as follows:

"Political ponerology"

In spite of above-mentioned qualitative differences, the duration of these time-cycles tends to be similar. If we assume that the extreme of European hysteria occurred around 1900 and returns not quite every two centuries (...)

But this is about Europe and I feel shy to extend this consideration - to the USA for instance.

A. Lobaczewski provides a big paragraph, potentially hinting at the hysteria phenomenon, in the USA, but I wouldn't be sure what to understand. Here are five quotes, potentially providing clues for the USA. I commented along, each time:

That era of hysterical regression gave birth to the great war and the great revolution which extended into Fascism, Hitlerism, and the tragedy of the Second World War.

So this is still about the German case.

(I did a post studying this growth of pathology, in Europe: it started around 1880, with an emperor teaching wrong values to his citizens. This constituted a first distorsion in their basic personality. Like a trans generational inheritance. Successive generations pursued on a similar road, and "the hysteria high cycle", in 1900, exacerbated the pathologies. Starting with "the mania of dueling", during Emperor Wilhelm II, added to the hysteria cycle - a pathocracy started later, at Hitler)

So, the danger is behind, in terms of pathocracy, for Europe, at the time of the publishing of the book:

Contemporary Europe is heading for the opposite extreme of this historical sine curve. We could thus assume that the beginning of the next century will produce an era of optimal capability and correctness of reason, thus leading to many new values in all realms of human discovery and creativity. We can also foresee that realistic psychological understanding and spiritual enrichment will be features of this era.

That's because the hysteria cycle would be every two centuries (please correct me if I am wrong).

Then, the US:

At the same time, America, especially the U.S.A., has reached a nadir for the first time in its short history. Grey- haired Europeans living in the U.S. today are struck by the similarity between these phenomena and the ones dominating Europe at the times of their youth. The emotionalism dominating individual, collective and political life, as well as the subconscious selection and substitution of data in reasoning, are impoverishing the development of a psychological world view and leading to individual and national egotism.

The mania for taking offense at the drop of a hat provokes constant retaliation, taking advantage of hyper-irritability and hypo-criticality on the part of others. This can be considered analogous to the European dueling mania of those times. People fortunate enough to achieve a position higher than someone else are con- temptuous of their supposed inferiors in a way highly reminiscent of czarist Russian customs. Turn-of-the-century Freudian psychology finds fertile soil in this country because of the similarity in social and psychological conditions.

A worrying hint, here, is the susceptibility of the USA in terms very similar to what took place during the Emperor's time. I bolded the parts.

I am willing to expand on the present Venezuelian matter, and I shall expand right after an addition.

Not far from the above quote, I found the following one:

One accomplishment of modern science, contributing to the destruction of these eternal cycles, is the development of communication systems which have linked our globe into one huge “village”. The time cycles sketched herein used to run their course almost independently in various civilizations at different geographical locations. Their phases neither were, nor are, synchronized. We can assume that the American phase lags 80 years behind the European.

This does not mean, to me, that this is specifically in regard of the hysterical cycle, but it can be. I am not sure, so that I will prevent myself from drawing that conclusion. Asking you!

Overall, my concern is if the USA would find themselves during a hysterical high cycle. Because that is a pre-requisite for the start of a pathocracy.

If we look at the Emperor, in 1890, in Germany, it says that his "mania for dueling" imprinted the citizen in a negative way. Here above, A. Lobaczeski compares this motion, with the USA. I understand that this was around 1994.

Recently, with Trump going for the oil, in Venezuela, and toppling the leader, he featured a negative example for people. Not far from a dueling.

I took note of two threads, on the forum, expanding on a psychological "motion" - that is now familiar to me (characteropathy) - and seemingly due to Trump's action:

Venezuela Oil: US Declares War on 'Narco-Terrorism'

Military Observer noted that China followed the recent news from Venezuela very closely, and the video about the operation to capture Maduro received more than 440 million views. At the same time, users of Chinese social networks say that Beijing should adopt Trump’s methods and apply them to Taiwan. Since the United States can invade another country and kidnap its president, then China is allowed to do so too, especially since Taiwan is part of the PRC, although this is not recognized in Taipei. It is also proposed to kidnap Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te. Trump literally opened Pandora's box, and many countries are already saying that if the United States can, then so can others. Since the US doesn't take international law seriously, why should others care?

Nick Fuentes, from troll king to... leader of a true 'America First' movement?

WE ARE AMERICA SECOND TO NONE AND WE OWN THE FINISH LINE

TAKE THE OIL

THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE IS OURS

Trump, in acting as he did, becomes an ambassador of "the alpha-male model". In psychological terms, this motion amounts to the influence of a minor pathology, on the masses - characteropathy - which would slightly distort the personality, the character.

People resonating with such principles, without critical thinking, risk to be inflated by a subjective idea that "imperialism is great" (for example - but the main would be "use the force to get what you want").

There seems to be an influence of characteropathy, and given how A. Lobaczewski explained that the mania of dueling" was a potential problem for the USA, around 1994, I am puzzled as to what to do with what may be taking place.

The first forum message explains how the imperialist model had repercussions in China. The info has not been confirmed, it seems to me, so I will leave it hypothetical.

I believe that it could matter but that it should not be "alarming", without further studies. But, this caught my attention so I wanted to write about it and ask for your opinion about it, please.

Overall, it "seems" that there is a characteropathic motion, active over the mind of normal people, because of what Trump did. As the first example (China) is not confirmed, and because the second example involves "Nick Fuentes", I still remain cautious so as to label this "a general phenomenon". It could be restricted to only a few people and I focused on this wrongly. In this case, nothing to see here. The matter would be sunk in an ocean of other influences.

But still - I was watching a podcast with J.J. Carrell yesterday. He is a hero border patrol who explained how much harm the Biden administration did. He more or less found out that 1+ millions of Latino kids have disappeared after crossing the US border. And, yesterday, he commented on Trump's move in Venezuela. He does not know that Trump went there for the oil. But he said that it was great, because at least, the USA has a strong President.

Well - I wouldn't disagree with him if Trump had acted for a more noble purpose. So, overall, my personal hero, J.J. Carrell, kind of endorses Trump's move, in terms of "alpha male".

Ultimately, this is more or less the same problem - the favouring, in the consensual world view, of wrong principles for day-by-day existence. This can leave a trace, in the people's mind, should it be a slight tendency for "going hard" in situations not requiring it.

I suppose that you understand my post. I still would like to remain cautious before jumping to conclusions. In any way, I would feel a slight inheritance of characteropathy among the US people (and elsewhere, too). Is there anything?

In addition, I am asking myself if this is taking place during a high hysterical cycle. So, before starting to think about a potential pathocracy, I would like to ask about this.

There is another article that I sometimes refer to, for an understanding of pathocracy.

Harrison KOEHLI - "Depathologizing America"

It took decades to build the lie, and two weeks to break it, fatally. And now the liars—those whose power seemed so entrenched, such a fool’s errand to confront—just look effete and clownish. It’s like waking from a bad dream and realizing the monster you so feared was in fact a toy poodle in drag.

If you read this article, you will understand that H.K. explains how the election of Trump literally "killed" a pathocracy, in the USA. It seems that it was almost mature.

This would provide two scenarios, as far as I understand things (but my understanding is limited):

1) The pathocracy is "dead", it won't "recover" that easily. Can't.

2) The pathocracy is back at the menu, but it seems that it's right now at the level of the "mania of dueling". So, some characteropathic stacking is taking place (perhaps, I am not even sure), and it would then need to meet a hysteria cycle (are we in it? Still in it?). It could be, too, that old US scars (Bush, Obama, Biden) did not heal properly, so that small sparks of characteropathy may turn into a huge quick fire. In addition, if hysteria's high cycle is still around, in the US, there would be a risk.

The second case ends up with many "if" but I am a bit "worried" to find some matches.

I am writing this post to double-check on this. That's.. because Biden was leading the country to a pathocracy. It was almost mature. I understand that some more months of it, and the USA would have been, today, a big Stalinist prison camp, at the hands of a bloody clique of unknown individuals.

But H. K. says it "died". Hopefully. It couldl be that what I am spectating is the starting point of a pathocracy, live and direct. If the model follows the Emperor model, it would be in 40 years that "a new Hitler" would turn the USA in a "torture & detention camp". But that is if there is no leftover from Biden & co. I don't know if the process can see acceleration.

I would be happy to read about your ideas. I don't feel alarmed right now, but this caught my attention. We are all asking ourselves why did Trump did that, and are, at the same time, quite shocked that the events unfolded like that. Not all people react the same way. There are people who would enjoy such a show, others that would simply enjoy Trump "going STS" etc.

I am suspicious that the Chinese are not possibly giving in to this (encouraged by a feeling, inflated by Trump's imperialist attitude, hinting at "go pick your slave country"). But if such was the case, this wouldn't bode well.

The antidote, to pathocracy (pathology), is no-pathology ... So... "normal people". The best way to derail a pathocratic process is to focus on normal values of normal humans

 

[irjO]

Is the people's favourable reaction, to Trump's action, in Venezuela, a worrying problem?

I think we need to take into consideration the quantity of people who is really favorable to this, a couple of sessions ago they mentioned that Maduro indeed won the elections with a 60% margin support.

So, technically the very loud (with official media and social media propaganda) minority are the ones in favor. And I’m referring only to Venezuelans.

The last pull showed that with Americans, only a 23% were in favor, 12% were still not sure and the rest were against this.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

I think we need to take into consideration the quantity of people who is really favorable to this, a couple of sessions ago they mentioned that Maduro indeed won the elections with a 60% margin support.

Keep in mind that in the last 10 years something like 25% of Venezuelans have left the country - just under 8 million. From what I can find, only around 70,000 of them were registered and eligible to vote in 2024.

Current population of Venezuela is roughly 28 million (36 million with the expats). Eligible voters is just over 21 million, around 75% of total population (or 58%, counting expats). If Maduro got 60%, that would be 7.4 million votes (official count was 6.4 million). That's 35% of eligible voters (counting voting age expats, around 28%). The Venezuelan government doesn't release polling results that I can find, but all the ones I could put his approval over the past 10 years at 20-30%, so that tracks.

 

[palestine]

I think we need to take into consideration the quantity of people who is really favorable to this

Thank you @irjO - this is an idea that I couldn't make "conscious".

A media effect, so that a narrative pass of as "consensual truth". I believe that this may be in motion, or at least partly.

Let's see how this evolves!

 

[Approaching Infinity]

Hello,

I couldn't find an answer to a question I am asking myself.

Is the people's favourable reaction, to Trump's action, in Venezuela, a worrying problem?

I assume based on the rest of your post that you mean worrying in the sense of ponerology. In that case, on its own it is neutral. Popular support for such actions can occur in any regime type, at any time in a secular cycle.

A. Lobaczewski explains that Germany underwent the buildup of personality distorsion (1890-1900), to then enter a phase of hysteria (1900), this leading to a pathocracy, manifesting via Hitler (1935).

---

A. Lobaczewski provides precisions about "European hysteria" as follows:

"Political ponerology"

But this is about Europe and I feel shy to extend this consideration - to the USA for instance.

A. Lobaczewski provides a big paragraph, potentially hinting at the hysteria phenomenon, in the USA, but I wouldn't be sure what to understand. Here are five quotes, potentially providing clues for the USA. I commented along, each time:

So this is still about the German case.

Such cycles are not as precise as Lobaczewski presented. The best modern study of such cycles is Peter Turchin's work. Lobaczewski links the rise in hysteria to the time preceding what Turchin calls the crisis period. As you note, in the U.S. he diagnosed the U.S. as being hystericized in the 80s, predicting a crisis in the first part of the 21st century. The U.S. is currently in the crisis period of a secular cycle. Societies either weather those crises, or collapse and are rebuilt. In the case of the 20th century pathocracies, like the USSR, the rebuilding is how the pathocracy was created from the ashes of the crisis.

(I did a post studying this growth of pathology, in Europe: it started around 1880, with an emperor teaching wrong values to his citizens. This constituted a first distorsion in their basic personality. Like a trans generational inheritance. Successive generations pursued on a similar road, and "the hysteria high cycle", in 1900, exacerbated the pathologies. Starting with "the mania of dueling", during Emperor Wilhelm II, added to the hysteria cycle - a pathocracy started later, at Hitler)

So, the danger is behind, in terms of pathocracy, for Europe, at the time of the publishing of the book:

I'm pretty sure Turchin's analysis shows that most of Western Europe is now mostly synchronized with the American cycle, so Lobaczewski may have been wrong on this point.

Overall, my concern is if the USA would find themselves during a hysterical high cycle. Because that is a pre-requisite for the start of a pathocracy.

If we look at the Emperor, in 1890, in Germany, it says that his "mania for dueling" imprinted the citizen in a negative way. Here above, A. Lobaczeski compares this motion, with the USA. I understand that this was around 1994.

1984.

If you read this article, you will understand that H.K. explains how the election of Trump literally "killed" a pathocracy, in the USA. It seems that it was almost mature.

He killed the institutionalization of the pathocractic ideology of the day - at least temporarily, but it would take a lot of effort to re-institutionalize it, and those who find it a useful tool for their purposes probably don't have that much time.

This would provide two scenarios, as far as I understand things (but my understanding is limited):

1) The pathocracy is "dead", it won't "recover" that easily. Can't.

It can always take another form, but that too will take time.

2) The pathocracy is back at the menu, but it seems that it's right now at the level of the "mania of dueling". So, some characteropathic stacking is taking place (perhaps, I am not even sure), and it would then need to meet a hysteria cycle (are we in it? Still in it?). It could be, too, that old US scars (Bush, Obama, Biden) did not heal properly, so that small sparks of characteropathy may turn into a huge quick fire. In addition, if hysteria's high cycle is still around, in the US, there would be a risk.

The second case ends up with many "if" but I am a bit "worried" to find some matches.

Anything can happen. It's no use worrying too hard, IMO, as it's out of your control.

But H. K. says it "died". Hopefully. It couldl be that what I am spectating is the starting point of a pathocracy, live and direct. If the model follows the Emperor model, it would be in 40 years that "a new Hitler" would turn the USA in a "torture & detention camp". But that is if there is no leftover from Biden & co. I don't know if the process can see acceleration.

I'd say the window is more like 10 years.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

The last pull showed that with Americans, only a 23% were in favor, 12% were still not sure and the rest were against this.

That went up after the operation. Latest polling: 40% support, 42% oppose, 18% unsure.

 

[palestine]

Hello @Approaching Infinity, thank you for your consideration!

1984.

In the case of the 20th century pathocracies, like the USSR, the rebuilding is how the pathocracy was created from the ashes of the crisis.

You used the term "crisis" in a way that is not familiar to me, but I can see how the above amounts to the pathocracy model, right after a revolutionary group seized power. I have to read Peter Turchin; Harrison Koehli seldom refers to him!

Thank you, too, for expressing a direction, based on your analysis. It seems that most of the usual "avenues" for the pathocracy are closed as of now. This is comforting.

I believe that you are right when you express that Europe and the USA are synchronized, in terms of pathology. I would suspect the dependence of Europe towards the US to be the cause. This is bad, because we suffer from a somehow natural cycle occurring in the US. Europe would fare better with less dependence. When Europe had bypassed the danger zone, the US enters it, and grabs Europe in it.

Thank you for confirming the 80 year date, I wasn't sure.

I understand, too, how there will always be people following most of the existing "mindsets", so that it's not relevant to see people being enthusiast at Trump's action.

 

[palestine]

@Approaching Infinity

Why not, one day, make a reading workshop with Peter Turchin's book?!

 

[Approaching Infinity]

You used the term "crisis" in a way that is not familiar to me, but I can see how the above amounts to the pathocracy model, right after a revolutionary group seized power. I have to read Peter Turchin; Harrison Koehli seldom refers to him!

"Often", not "seldom". ;) The term "crisis" is used to describe a period with high economic inequality, high political polarization, popular immiseration, disaffected counter-elites, precipitating potential economic collapse, foreign invasion, civil war, state collapse and/or revolution.

Thank you, too, for expressing a direction, based on your analysis. It seems that most of the usual "avenues" for the pathocracy are closed as of now. This is comforting.

Closed for now, though pathocracy is not the only sociopolitical disease. There are plenty of others, and we see one or another in practically every country on the planet, some worse than others.

I believe that you are right when you express that Europe and the USA are synchronized, in terms of pathology.

It's more than pathology, it's economics, political culture, social movement "fads", etc.

 

[palestine]

"Often", not "seldom". ;)

The term "crisis" is used to describe a period with high economic inequality, high political polarization, popular immiseration, disaffected counter-elites, precipitating potential economic collapse, foreign invasion, civil war, state collapse and/or revolution.

Thank you; those would be "his indicators".

Do you believe that his model is okay? When I first read about it, I thought that I preferred A. Lobaczewski, because he was somehow very innovative in his perspective. I suppose that it has to do with the exclusive angle of "pathology" being the critical factor (conditionning the rest).

The thing is that P. Turchin seems more conventional - and there is the "smell of impracticability", when this type of model pops up. I cannot help this, I got used to be suspicious. This is not to say that I don't believe in P. Turchin's model applicability. On the opposite, as you are positively endorsing his work, I would like to have a look at it.

Thank you for precising his "indicators". I understand that with those, he can successfully make a snapshot of a group, and be able to talk about it, with objectivity. If he has results, it means that it's objective. This reminds me of the Chinese teacher who does "predictive history". I see that there are more solid models that appear, here and there. I wouldn't want to "compare" both, as they seem to be on different modes of knowledge. But this is interesting.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

Do you believe that his model is okay? When I first read about it, I thought that I preferred A. Lobaczewski, because he was somehow very innovative in his perspective. I suppose that it has to do with the exclusive angle of "pathology" being the critical factor (conditionning the rest).

The way I see it, Lobaczewski is just giving a psychological description of the things that Turchin describes in structural-demographic terms. Pathology only becomes critical if/when a ponerogenic group gains power during/after the crisis. And psychology more generally is more of a symptom of the decline part of the cycle - elites lose touch with reality, get complacent and greedy. Most of Lobaczewski's description of the hysteroidal cycle is about normal people.

 

[palestine]

The way I see it, Lobaczewski is just giving a psychological description of the things that Turchin describes in structural-demographic terms. Pathology only becomes critical if/when a ponerogenic group gains power during/after the crisis. And psychology more generally is more of a symptom of the decline part of the cycle - elites lose touch with reality, get complacent and greedy. Most of Lobaczewski's description of the hysteroidal cycle is about normal people.

Thank you, this short-wires a bit my understanding of things, but I understand. That there exists pathology at some point does not necessarily imply "bad", because there will usually be it, when society undergoes the down phase of a natural cycle.

 

[irjO]

Keep in mind that in the last 10 years something like 25% of Venezuelans have left the country - just under 8 million. From what I can find, only around 70,000 of them were registered and eligible to vote in 2024.

Oh definitely! This is a good point, I was thinking on the terms internally in Venezuela. But yeah looking it that way it does track.

Now in terms of your thoughts Palestine, I have had similar ones, the thing is, Venezuelans are radicalized on both sides, it’s almost hard to find someone who can stay in objectively in the middle. Of course, one side has a view more close to the truth than the other, but still radicalized with lots of blind spots, something similar to the Left vs core MAGA people in the US.

When a big number of population believes in lies and promote more lies, it is doomed to repeat and live the same cycle over and over again.
To me, what the US just did, I have the feeling, and bear with me, that it’s actually sort of like an “act of mercy” from the universe, even if it was a terrible or an imperialistic move, but for example, it could be giving to many people and more so to Venezuelan’s the option to SEE the reality of what could be really evil and how the world really works, before it gets really worse. Not sure if I’m very off thinking or looking at it like that.

 

[Joe]

Current population of Venezuela is roughly 28 million (36 million with the expats). Eligible voters is just over 21 million, around 75% of total population (or 58%, counting expats). If Maduro got 60%, that would be 7.4 million votes (official count was 6.4 million). That's 35% of eligible voters (counting voting age expats, around 28%). The Venezuelan government doesn't release polling results that I can find, but all the ones I could put his approval over the past 10 years at 20-30%, so that tracks.

60% of 21 million is 12.6 million.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

60% of 21 million is 12.6 million.

It's 60% of the number of people who voted, not of eligible voters.