Shootings and Mass Shootings

Sure, but the context here is important, not to mention the history of similar shootings and attacks. The context is the continued demonization of "Trump supporters" and the exacerbation of the fracture points in American society. In that context, reports of multiple shooters have more weight.
For sure. I just try to avoid letting weight morph into certainty. Even if 9 times out of 10 an event will fit a certain type, that doesn't mean the we can say anything with certainty about the next one. And fracture points can be exacerbated by individuals falling for propaganda and directed by sinister influences, whether direct (e.g. a handler) or indirect (e.g. ideology), or even hyperdimensional. We can weight the probabilities based on past examples and patterns, and whatever direction the evidence seems to point, but there will always be an element of uncertainty.

I'm reading this CHAOS book on Manson and the CIA right now, and it leaves me with the same thought I have whenever I read any in-depth treatment of a crime, even a relatively 'simple' murder case: just how complex events like this are, how contradictory the evidence can be, how hard it is to say very much with absolute certainty, and just how much research it takes just to be able to formulate a good hypothesis that takes into account the majority of the evidence.

I thought you put it really well in the Moon Landing thread:


People have a strong and personal attachment to their ideas, theories, beliefs because they provide a certain amount of stability and certainty in the face of a complex and nuanced world where the truth is often not simple and not finite. Faced with this complexity and the unknown, most people adopt certain world views and then hold on to them like their sanity depended on it, and in a sense it may well do. So it's not surprising that some people are very identified with beliefs as we're seeing here. Such strong attachment to beliefs IS a problem though in the scenario where those beliefs are suddenly and unequivocally exposed as entirely false.

So training yourself to be open to doubting your own theories and beliefs and to be able to change them when new data comes in, and to always keep in mind that you undoubtedly don't have the whole story, is a very good way to not only increase your own thinking abilities and knowledge, but to hedge your bets against having your sacred cows unceremoniously thrown to the ground, which can be quite traumatic, depending on the circumstances.
 
Another thing to consider...
Most of the shooters are young. And so their ideals are fresh and full of zeal. And if the circumstances are bad for them, they'll go crazy. And they look to our militaristic view of things, and wage war... Of course they have to make a manifesto first - for the record.

I feel bad for the youth, but I think the way the adults conduct themselves, they follow, but in a extreme, chaotic way.
 
"One thing I can tell you won’t fix your problems, America, and that’s listening to the propagandists who want you to hand over even more control to a government that has already begun floating high-altitude surveillance balloons over your country without your permission.
Don’t let them bully you with fear."


 

[B]Patrick Henningsen[/B]‏Verified account @[B]21WIRE[/B]

Now for next-level weird: Last week's #GarlicShooter and today's #ElPasoShooter are near identical twins. Beyond bizarre...
EBGQkhUX4AIc93A.jpg

9:07 PM - 3 Aug 2019

I agree with Patrick on this one. These two look nearly identical! And they both go off on shooting sprees at about the same time in different states? What are the odds? Super weird.

Sad, strange and, twisted times indeed.
 



I agree with Patrick on this one. These two look nearly identical! And they both go off on shooting sprees at about the same time in different states? What are the odds? Super weird.

Sad, strange and, twisted times indeed.
Yep, that one was weird! Like, some John Keel-level weirdness... For reference, some more photos of the El Paso shooter:

Walmart-killer-in-HS.jpg

190804_patrick_crusius.jpg


And his arrest photo:
909414-1564938983-wide_facebook.jpg

And just found this, which is also weird:


EXCLUSIVE: El Paso Walmart mass shooter Patrick Crusius' father admits to nearly 40 years of drug addiction which tore apart his family and claims he has spoken directly to Jesus
  • Patrick Crusius' father Bryan wrote a memoir of almost 40 years of drug and alcohol addiction which he says tore apart both his marriages
  • The El Paso gunman and his twin sister Emily are Bryan Crusius' youngest children; they have an elder half-brother Austin and an elder brother, Blake
  • Crusius Sr. writes that he has been an addict for almost 40 years despite being a therapist himself saying that he suffered from alcoholism
  • He said he also took drugs including Vicodine, Quaaludes, hallucinogenics and magic mushrooms
  • He now claims to be cured after Jesus spoke directly to him and having a spiritual encounter with his grandmother Mabel
 
Yeh that dad detail is a bit alarming.

Couple of other quick quotes from the link: Walmart shooter Patrick Crusius' dad wrote book about drug addiction

‘I was always the one daring everyone else to go over the top in the partying category by taking the extreme amounts of whatever we had, whether Quaaludes, alcohol, magic mushrooms, or something else,’ he wrote.
...
"The therapist detailed how he was a veteran user of hallucinogens by age 16, and progressed to benzodiazepines, anti-depressants - including Vicodin - and prescription drugs commonly prescribed for people with ADHD. "
...
"A teaser on the back of the $12.95 book’s cover says that before writing his memoir he had ‘descended into a profound and unsustainable apathy in which life no longer seemed purposeful or worthwhile’ after ‘thirty years of dependence on mind-altering chemicals’. "
...
"What was shocking on the surface was to realize that my spouse had taken off without leaving an adult in charge.’

The father reacted bizarrely to the news, immediately pulling into a ‘major warehouse store’ and attempting to steal a computer hard drive.

He was apprehended by security guards and spent several days in county jail, leaving his three children to fend for themselves on Christmas Day.
...
"The majority of the father’s memoir is a rambling account of his various hallucinations and ‘visions’ while meditating with other spiritualists and ‘energy healers’. "
...

This would indicate that the dad may have had some New-Age-MK-Ultra 2.0 programming himself. I think I'll be avoiding his energy healing clinic for the time being...
 
About the Dayton, Ohio shooter Connor Betts...

Here are some of his online quotes - he apparently was a gun control advocate.

“This is America: Guns on every corner, guns in every house, no freedom but that to kill,” he wrote in December 2018. And, “’Tis! The pistol is a Beretta 93R, called the REK7 in BO4. Do love me some guns!” He also wrote, “Hammer, brick, gun.” On Feb. 14, 2018, he tweeted this at Sen. Rob Portman: “@robportman hey rob. How much did they pay you to look the other way? 17 kids are dead. If not now, when?”


He seems like a sinister type, and a lot of people aren't surprised he was a killer.
 
This twitter post received a lot of backlash:


From a science and statistics point of view, correct. From a human point of view, you would have to be without emotion not to feel at least sorrow for the situation, the people, their families and the thousands of connected people that have had their lives changed now forever.

I'm most curious though about what people think on the content of the post (not of the author). Personally, I think yes, significantly more people died around the world yesterday which were preventable. Perhaps there are just so many people now on Earth, that there is a complacency about the fortunes of others to the point where preventable deaths are chalked up as just bad luck....the wrong place at the right time.

The worst part about this post from twitter I think, is that a legitimate concern was aired but rebuked by the masses to the point where, as a non-celebrity - am I even allowed to talk about this issue to the average Joe and Joanns who did a lot of the rebuking, without being condemned myself? If we addressed some of the other social issues raised, like why do medical errors occur in this age of technology, why do people still get the flu, why are people killing themselves, how do car accidents still happen, and what drives people to commit murder - and looked at the issues holistically rather than a compartmentalised reaction 'today is a gun massacre, nothing else matters', and without fear of outrage, maybe society could improve for a lot more people. Who knows, maybe even some of the other issues wouldn't happen in the first place.
 
For sure. I just try to avoid letting weight morph into certainty. Even if 9 times out of 10 an event will fit a certain type, that doesn't mean the we can say anything with certainty about the next one. And fracture points can be exacerbated by individuals falling for propaganda and directed by sinister influences, whether direct (e.g. a handler) or indirect (e.g. ideology), or even hyperdimensional. We can weight the probabilities based on past examples and patterns, and whatever direction the evidence seems to point, but there will always be an element of uncertainty.

I'm reading this CHAOS book on Manson and the CIA right now, and it leaves me with the same thought I have whenever I read any in-depth treatment of a crime, even a relatively 'simple' murder case: just how complex events like this are, how contradictory the evidence can be, how hard it is to say very much with absolute certainty, and just how much research it takes just to be able to formulate a good hypothesis that takes into account the majority of the evidence.

I thought you put it really well in the Moon Landing thread:


All good points, especially mine :lol:. There's one potential fallacy that you missed however, which is the fallacy of relying too much on your judicious and accurate assessment that things are very complicated and it is very difficult to formulate a good hypothesis. Relying too much on that truth can make us conclude that things are always that way and no good hypothesis can be formulated.

There are other aspects of this case that, when plugged in, may constitute the large amount of research needed to formulate a good hypothesis that is itself based on previous research that have defined patterns in these cases. One of those aspects is the confusion around who the actual shooter is. Look at the two pictures of the shooter in these two NY Post articles, both of which were published within a few hours of each other yesterday.


 
Are those pictures have been taken at the same period of time or when he was 12 years old and the other now? Time can change a person, look at me, but they don't look the same guy. Their ears are similar, by the way. But just the ears
 
How about now?

There are these two photos. One of the shooter and the other of the one detailned. It appears that one has beard and the other one not? So if it isn't a matter of light and shading, it does appear that the one detained isn't the one that is on the shooter photo.
 

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