Show #29: All and Everything part 4

[Pierre]

My inner conspiracy theorist has wondered since it happened if they were deliberately hyping 2012DA-14 in the lead-up to February 15th to distract from the real danger posed by the Chelyabinsk asteroid/comet fragment.

That's exactly the narrative they have developed. They were, oh, so focused on DA-14 that they missed the Chelyabinsk asteroid:

On the same day that all eyes were on DA14, a meteor measuring less than 60 feet across unexpectedly screamed into Earth's atmosphere and exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, injuring more than 1,500 people.

They will definitely see the IR tracks of incoming rocks. If they would publish this data, I'm sure the trend would be very impressive! But I wouldn't be surprised if the system strips this data (tracks) - even from the users - the implications would be pretty scary to anyone.

So they know what's going on (at least as far as increased asteroids activity is concerned) and they deliberately conceal it from the people, thus preventing us from taking some protection measures. At least basic ones like avoiding exposed areas, getting psychologically prepared, anticipating the effects of airborne virus, building underground facilities, etc. So, once again, their power (that they would loose if people realized the coming disasters) matters more than the lives of people.

Since the asteroid detection is quite efficient, do you think that, technologically speaking, an asteroid defense / alert system (electromagnetic shield? EMPs? real-time impact location alert?) would have been feasible?

 

[LQB]

So if I'm following you LQB, they do have an adequate observation infrastructure in place?

Yet they pretend that they don't? And/or they keep the key data to themselves?

My inner conspiracy theorist has wondered since it happened if they were deliberately hyping 2012DA-14 in the lead-up to February 15th to distract from the real danger posed by the Chelyabinsk asteroid/comet fragment.

The SSN never had a requirement for detect/track of incoming asteroids. The SBIR system at GEO is not part of the SSN - it is a separate system - and it was designed to detect/track foreign launches, explosions, etc. It reports in near real time for handover to missile defense systems. The new SBIRs GEO component replaces the older DMSP system. There is also a LEO component to SBIRs - I'm not sure if any of these have flown yet - but the ground processing element of SBIRs is massive (as I'm sure you can imagine).

It just turns out that SBIR can detect incoming asteroids once they begin to burn up in the upper atmosphere - it never had any requirement to do so. Obviously this capability provides no useful warning, but the system (and DMSP) would have logged very interesting data on the increase of incoming over the last decade. It is likely that SBIR operators are aware of many more fireball/explosions than we are. These asteroid/fireball detections are probably stripped from the data reported to users of the system.

I think NASA and the SSN are equally blind to any useful long range detection of any large incoming. Unless they launch a new SBSS visible sat architecture (like the ones I developed and worked on), they will remain blind.

Could the SSN ground telescope network have detected the Chelyabinsk object early enough for NASA to try to hide it with 2012DA-14 hype? Its possible, but from what I know of the SSN - I doubt it.

 

[LQB]

So they know what's going on (at least as far as increased asteroids activity is concerned) and they deliberately conceal it from the people, thus preventing us from taking some protection measures. At least basic ones like avoiding exposed areas, getting psychologically prepared, anticipating the effects of airborne virus, building underground facilities, etc. So, once again, their power (that they would loose if people realized the coming disasters) matters more than the lives of people.

Since the asteroid detection is quite efficient, do you think that, technologically speaking, an asteroid defense / alert system (electromagnetic shield? EMPs? real-time impact location alert?) would have been feasible?

I don't know for a fact that they strip the asteroid/fireball data from what they give the users. But they do this kind of thing routinely in other systems. If they do not want the increase in activity to become generally known, then they would certainly do so. From the user standpoint, this data represents a distraction anyway.

Since everything happens so fast once an object begins to burn up in the atmosphere, I would doubt that any useable warning could be derived (except in cases of grazing incidence - maybe). And the tracks may be so poor that you would have to alert a huge area to possible impact in near real time. Some simulations (computer) would be required to quantify all of this.


Added: On the question: Could you use SBIRs to launch missiles at incoming fireballs for protection? I don't know the feasibility, but you would probably need missile batteries positioned all over the world in various places. Ground software would probably also have to be modified.

 

[Niall]

Thanks for clarifying LQB. From what you were saying, their coverage sounded pretty comprehensive, but I see now that you meant it's predominantly focused downwards, at Earth!

This leads me to another question though... Their satellite systems are geared towards detecting missile launches, presumably by enemies. The U.S. has no real adversary; certainly no other state can compete with it militarily.

Now, missile launches (both civilian and military, and from both 'friendly' and 'evil' countries) are generally announced in advance, right?

So what does the Pentagon gain from spending so much time and money on this space-based missile observation system if there isn't really any clandestine activity for it to keep watch over?

'Al Qaeda' sure isn't going to be launching ICBMs anytime soon.

So the whole 'Star Wars' thing is either a giant white elephant that is the natural end-result of a paranoid country reaching a technological cul-de-sac, or ...?

What's the real pay-off?

 

[LQB]

Thanks for clarifying LQB. From what you were saying, their coverage sounded pretty comprehensive, but I see now that you meant it's predominantly focused downwards, at Earth!

Yes, all SBIR sensors are looking at the earth, and the noise (IR) background is set by the average earth temp. They would not work for deep space search because the focal plane cooling is set for earth temps - not deep space temps. The focal plane would have to be kept much cooler for this.

This leads me to another question though... Their satellite systems are geared towards detecting missile launches, presumably by enemies. The U.S. has no real adversary; certainly no other state can compete with it militarily.

Now, missile launches (both civilian and military, and from both 'friendly' and 'evil' countries) are generally announced in advance, right?

So what does the Pentagon gain from spending so much time and money on this space-based missile observation system if there isn't really any clandestine activity for it to keep watch over?

'Al Qaeda' sure isn't going to be launching ICBMs anytime soon.

So the whole 'Star Wars' thing is either a giant white elephant that is the natural end-result of a paranoid country reaching a technological cul-de-sac, or ...?

What's the real pay-off?

As long as there is a missile or launch vehicle not under their control, they will want to know immediately where something is coming from. Even the SSN has requirements to track launches and sat deployments.

I wouldn't be surprised if they can see campfires.

Think about the Intel value in being able to track temp variations in various facilities.

The mission profile has probably evolved (such as hyperspectral payloads) to address other things as well. I was never really involved in SBIRs, so I don't know much about the program except for the basics. But I'm sure there is much more to it.

And I agree with you - much of the "defense" infrastructure is nothing more than an excuse to spend massive amounts of money to maintain a "front" of credibility as a distraction from the deeper truths. The vast majority of those in the Pentagon (including the highest ranking Generals) are just pawns of this "front".

 

[Pierre]

Interestingly NASA just announced it will reactivate the WISE spacecraft to detect asteroids. I guess that after the Chelyabinsk fiasco they have to create the illusion that any incoming threat will be duly detected and therefore that we are safe and can gently go back to sleep.

A hibernating spacecraft has been called back into service. The WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer”) spacecraft that has been sleeping in a polar orbit around Earth for two years will be turned back on next month to hunt for more potentially hazardous asteroids, and perhaps search for an asteroid that NASA could capture and explore in the future.

 

[LQB]

Interestingly NASA just announced it will reactivate the WISE spacecraft to detect asteroids. I guess that after the Chelyabinsk fiasco they have to create the illusion that any incoming threat will be duly detected and therefore that we are safe and can gently go back to sleep.

A hibernating spacecraft has been called back into service. The WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer”) spacecraft that has been sleeping in a polar orbit around Earth for two years will be turned back on next month to hunt for more potentially hazardous asteroids, and perhaps search for an asteroid that NASA could capture and explore in the future.

Yes, they do seem to be making like they under control of the situation - "don't worry". Most of the NASA higher-ups know damn well they can't see what's coming outside of a luck shot.

 

[Str!ke]

For anyone that's going to transcribe this show, if it helps, this is about ~12min. that I could do. I can't finish it in this moment so here it is.

The words that are enclosed like this "(?)","_?", "_" are those that I couldn't understand.

 

[Turgon]

For anyone that's going to transcribe this show, if it helps, this is about ~12min. that I could do. I can't finish it in this moment so here it is.

The words that are enclosed like this "(?)","_?", "_" are those that I couldn't understand.

Thanks Str!ke! That'll save me some time and effort and having the first 12 minutes done already.