Signs of global crop failures or just normal fluctuations

[Aeneas]

I just saw this and apparently Russia is expecting a good grain crop this year. This would be a good thing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524702955315863552

I found this article from February: Experts of Russian grain market voice first forecasts of grain production in 2022

Experts of Russian grain market voice first forecasts of grain production in 2022​

Source
APK-Inform
2671

11:43 | Feb 9, 2022
Experts of Russian grain market voice their first forecasts of grain production in 2022 expecting higher output. At the same time, the weather factor should be watched as the massive snow cover combined with warm weather generate the risk of formation of ice coating and winterkilling to crops, informed Интерфакс.
Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of ProZerno, forecasts grain crop at 130.2 mln tonnes in 2022, including 83 mln tonnes of wheat.
“This figure is based on very good condition of winter crops”, – he said adding that the area under winter grains was reduced, however, the harvesting are would be higher than the year ago.
Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center at Rusagrotrans JSC, expects higher grain production as well.
“There are risks of formation of ice coating, overwatering of fields after snow melting, dry conditions in May-June”, – he said forecasting wheat crop at 81.4 mln tonnes, – “If the risks would not come true, the production of wheat may reach 83-84 mln tonnes. We pegged the overall grain crop at 128 mln tonnes”.
Russian Grain Union forecasts grain production in Russia in 2022 at 125-127 mln tonnes, including 81 mln tonnes of wheat.
Alexander Korbut, vice-president of Russian Grain Union, also pointed out the risks of ice coating that can badly hurt winter crops.
According to preliminary official data, Russia harvested 120.7 mln tonnes of grain, including 75.9 mln tonnes of wheat in 2021.

AND, here is a fresh article, which paints an even rosier picture and in the same vein as the Tweet.

Russia to harvest record wheat crop

Russia will harvest 87 mln tonnes of wheat in 2022, up from a record 86 mln tonnes produced in 2017, forecasts Elena Turina head of analytics department of Russian Grain Union.

www.apk-inform.com

Russia to harvest record wheat crop​

Source
APK-Inform
1003

09:26 | May 6, 2022
Russia will harvest 87 mln tonnes of wheat in 2022, up from a record 86 mln tonnes produced in 2017, forecasts Elena Turina head of analytics department of Russian Grain Union.
Particularly, winter wheat crop will reach 64 mln tonnes compared to 53 mln tonnes in 2021.
As to the spring planting, she mentioned quite positive dynamics.

“Today, most of regions, particularly, in Siberia, Volga, central part are going to extend planted area under spring crops. Russia produced 23 mln tonnes of spring wheat last year. The crop can reach 23.5 mln tonnes in 2022. Thus, the overall production of wheat will exceed 87 mln tonnes”, – E. Turina said.

She gingerly pinned the total production of grains and pulses at 130 mln tonnes.

In that light it makes even less sense that Russia is stealing grains from Ukraine. It appears that it is rather NATO countries which are stealing the grains from Ukraine.


Russia having a good grain harvest this year, will make Russia an even more attractive partner to deal with. Something which the BRICS+ and the NAM (Non-aligned Movement) countries will be happy to do, not least in light of possible coming food shortages.

 

[Aeneas]

I found this interesting as it goes against the Western narrative. It is an opinion piece by Maria Zakharova on Telegram: Russian MFA

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) posted (FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief | World Food Situation | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) a consolidated list of grain production data for the 2021/2022 season on its website.

The figures provided by experts show that according to the 2021/2022 agricultural year results, the global grain production is expected to reach 2.8 billion tonnes, which is more than in the 2019/2020 season. The grain carryover will amount to a record high of 850 million tonnes (much higher than last year). According to the results of the current agricultural year, the stocks-to-use ratio will amount to 30.5 percent, which is above average as well.

That means there will be more grain in the world.

Now, let's take a look at the trade transaction data. Anticipated grain trade volumes are higher than in the 2019/2020 season at 439.2 million tonnes. Separate data for wheat are available. The physical level of stocks and the volume of trade in this commodity will increase to 192 million tonnes (up by 1.5 percent compared to the previous period). Similar dynamics are anticipated in feed grain and rice production and trade.

Here's why this is important.

Representatives of the West are using every platform, including the UN, to accuse Russia of reducing the amount of grain available on the market through its actions, allegedly throwing a wrench in grain operations which, according to the West, has sent prices for wheat and other grains up.

In reality, though, there’s more grain on the market than in previous years, and trade is up as well.

It turns out that the price (which is growing, indeed) is not growing because of Russia's actions. The cause of that is a separate matter, and experts are coming up with different explanations.

However, general conclusions can be drawn:
1. Systematic errors made by the West when making forecasts for its agricultural policy.
2. Global inflation caused by short-sighted financial and monetary mechanisms that the West used during the pandemic.
3. The ill-conceived transition of Europe and North America to green energy based on the forced introduction of bio fuel technologies.
4. Illegitimate sanctions that have disrupted the established commodity-money chains.

With regard to whether famine is a realistic scenario, experts increasingly foresee a pessimistic outcome. They believe that many nations will be impacted and even more will become destitute.

The Western regimes that instigate and cause destruction should be blamed for that.

 

[Chad]

An agrometeorologist details how France's government figures are concealing just how badly affected the production of wheat in France has been by the drought and heatwaves:

Translations of tweets:
1:

[Thread] Reassuring messages are circulating on the estimate of NATIONAL wheat production. "Only" -5.8% compared to 2016-22 (Agreste). This national figure hides the reality of #[drought] : the figures are much worse at the departmental level. Explanations

Which, if i'm remembering correctly, reminds me of the C's comment that the authorities are hiding the true figures of crop failures.

2:

Behind these reassuring messages, a slightly more advanced analysis shows that the majority of the sees its returns fall. Except in the far north. However, this is where 300,000 ha of wheat are grown! Nord-Pas-De-Calais is catching up with part of the decline in the rest of France.

However he adds in Tweet #3 (not shown below) that the floods of 2016 actually resulted in a worst harvest than this year:

It is not reassuring to think that part of the production is saved by a few departments. It is not a disaster either: we are still far from the sharp fall of 2016, marked by major floods. These figures are estimates from l'Agreste.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1551543140640768004

I read recently that a lack of fertilizer at particular times of the growing season can leave corn more susceptible to drought and, so it's possible that these two issues are actually going to make harvest worse than it would have been with just the drought.

 

[Aeneas]

I just saw this and apparently Russia is expecting a good grain crop this year. This would be a good thing

The above was the forecast and now the result it starting to come in as the harvest season is almost finished in Russia. And it has been a record year.

Russia’s grain harvest hits all-time high

This year’s crop has already exceeded 147 million tons, according to the agriculture ministry

www.rt.com

Russia’s grain harvest hits all-time high​

This year’s crop has already exceeded 147 million tons, the country’s Agriculture Ministry has said

© Getty Images / Edwin Remsberg
Russia’s grain harvest this year has already set a new record, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday on its official Telegram channel.
“To date, 147.5 million tons in bunker weight have been harvested, with harvesting still ongoing,” the ministry announced.
Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev later confirmed the figure at a staff meeting of the ministry.
“We expect to reap a maximum of 150 million tons. Of course, this is an absolute success for our farmers and the Russian agriculture industry as a whole,” he stated.
The previous record had been set in 2017, when the country reaped 135.5 million tons of grain, including 86 million tons of wheat.
This year, the wheat harvest is expected to reach 100 million tons.
Patrushev recently said that Russia’s newly joined territories, the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, would add about 5 million tons of grain per year to Russia’s overall crop.

Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, followed by Canada and the US. The country has already delivered about 8.3 million tons of grain to foreign markets in the 2022 agricultural year, which began on June 1. It expects to export around 50 million tons in total by July 30, 2023.

The wheat harvest was forecasted to be 86 million tons, but now it is expected to reach 100 million tons, which is a stunning record.
The Gods appears to be smiling on Russia, while not so much on the Western ruled based world.
Is the universe letting it be known which side it blesses? It brings the Mandate of Heaven, to mind.

 

[dennis]

Drought conditions continue in North America. I know Europe has had similar experience. Here are some reports and monitoring websites. Where I live in the SE USA the maps underestimate the drought conditions.

TEFE, Brazil (AP) — Just months after enduring floods that destroyed crops and submerged entire communities, thousands of families in the Brazilian Amazon are now dealing with severe drought that, at least in some areas, is the worst in decades. The low level of the Amazon River, at the center of the largest drainage system in the world, has put dozens of municipalities under alert.

Thu. 8:30 a.m.: Months after floods, Brazil’s Amazon faces a severe drought

TEFE, Brazil (AP) — Just months after enduring floods that destroyed crops and submerged entire communities, thousands of families in the Brazilian Amazon are now dealing with severe drought that, at least in some areas, is the worst in decades. The low level of the Amazon River, at the center...

www.vindy.com

From August:
Rainfall in the Yangtze basin has been around 45% lower than normal since July and high temperatures are likely to persist for at least another week, official forecasts said.

As many as 66 rivers across 34 counties in Chongqing have dried up, state broadcaster CCTV said on Friday.

Receding water levels of China's Yangtze River reveal ancient Buddhist statues - SABC News - Breaking news, special reports, world, business, sport coverage of all South African current events. Africa's news leader.

Plunging water levels of the Yangtze River have revealed a submerged island in China's southwestern city of Chongqing and a trio of Buddhist statues on it that are believed to be 600 years old, state media Xinhua has reported.

www.sabcnews.com

From one month ago:

The continuous drought in many parts of the Yangtze River Basin has exceeded 70 days. Has China's rain belt moved north?​

9/26/2022, 7:46:19 AM

According to statistics, since July, the cumulative rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin of China has been nearly 50% lower than the same period of the previous year, which is the lowest in the historical period since complete data were available in 1961. Chen Lijuan said that it is expected that in the late autumn (October-November), the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River will be close to the same period of normal years to slightly more, but the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will be 20 to 50% lower than the same period of normal years.

The continuous drought in many parts of the Yangtze River Basin has exceeded 70 days. Has China's rain belt moved north?

According to statistics, since July, the cumulative rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin of China has been nearly 50% lower than the same period of the previous year, which is the lowest in the historical period since complete data were available in 1961. Chen Lijuan said that it is expected that...

www.tellerreport.com

International

Drought is a natural hazard with far-reaching impacts that range from economic losses to loss of agriculture and livelihood. Drought can cause or exacerbate water, food, and national security hazards. The maps, tools, and resources on this page address drought conditions around the world.

www.drought.gov

SPEI Global Drought Monitor

The SPEI is a multiscalar drought index based on climatic data. It can be used for determining the onset, duration and magnitude of drought conditions with respect to normal conditions in a variety of natural and managed systems such as crops, ecosystems, rivers, water resources, etc.

spei.csic.es

 

[dennis]

High barometric pressure inhibits cloud formation, low pressure systems bring rain. How the electro-magnetic environment influences this would be an interesting area of study. There could be a negative feedback loop effect. Anecdotally, we always observed that summer thunderstorm cells always seemed to follow the flow of a nearby river.

Atoms and molecules in the air move constantly, in all directions. This movement creates what meteorologists measure as air pressure. In high-pressure systems, the molecules inside the system move faster than those that surround it. The opposite occurs in low-pressure systems, where the air inside the low is moving more slowly than in the surrounding area. Meteorologists do not define a set pressure for highs or lows. Instead, they define the system by comparing the pressure inside the system to the pressure outside it.

Air is more dense in a region of high pressure, so the air pushes out toward less dense regions. The air mass begins to warm as it descends, which retards the formation of clouds. The presence of clouds indicates that rain may be present in the air. High-pressure systems typically have light clouds or no clouds at all, indicating fair weather without rain. In a region of low pressure, the air rises. As it does, the air mass cools and clouds form from the humidity inside the air mass.

Does Barometric Pressure Rise or Fall When It Rains?

Falling barometers usually point to rain, while rising barometers signal mild or warm weather in the forecast.

sciencing.com

This map currently shows high pressure systems predominant around the globe in low to mid latitudes on both sides of the equator with only few exceptions.

Atmospheric Pressure Map | Zoom Earth

LIVE interactive map of atmospheric pressure. Accurate animated visualization of forecasted mean sea-level pressure.

zoom.earth

 

[Ca.]

France's drought may swing hard in 2023.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613840969576906756

"The levels of the December aquifers are unsatisfactory. Indeed, the rains infiltrated during the autumn are very insufficient to compensate for the deficits accumulated during the year 2022 and to improve the state of the aquifers in the long term" according to @BRGM_fr
Line-2
State of groundwater tables on 1 January 2023 In December, levels are significantly lower than last year. Read the full newsletter: https://brgm.fr/fr/actualite/communique-presse/nappes-eau-souterraine-au-1er-janvier-2023 #eau #environnement #climat

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613800481540677633

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613852110730174464

 

[Aeneas]

The above was the forecast and now the result it starting to come in as the harvest season is almost finished in Russia. And it has been a record year.

The final numbers are in according to RT and it was a record year with an increase of 26% compared to the year before.

Russia reaps bumper grain harvest – data

Russia reaped its largest grain crop last year, according to state statistics agency Rosstat

www.rt.com

Russia reaps bumper grain harvest – data​

Production in 2022 exceeded 150 million tons, the state statistics agency said

Russia collected its largest grain crop on record last year, Rosstat, the country’s official statistics agency, said on Monday.
According to the latest data, the harvest amounted to 153.8 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year against 2021. The figure surpassed earlier official projections, which forecast that the crop would amount to 150 million tons. Data shows that the wheat harvest alone reached 104.4 million tons last year.
The previous grain harvest record was set by the country in 2017, when it collected 135.5 million tons.
Commenting on preliminary harvest figures last month, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev noted that the record results had been achieved due to an increase in yields, which over the past five years rose from 25 to 34 quintals per hectare. In addition, according to Rosstat, the area sown with grain crops also increased in 2022.
Russia is also expected to retain its position as the largest wheat exporter in the world, despite Western sanctions that pose problems for the country’s trade. Speaking at a governmental meeting on December 15, President Vladimir Putin said that, over the past five months, Russia had exported around 22 million tons of grain, and is expected to deliver up to 50 million tons by the end of the agricultural year on June 30. Industry experts predict even larger export volumes, up to 57 million tons, due to high demand for Russian agricultural products.

“The current rapid growth of exports is based on strong sales since early October, when Russian wheat began to regain its competitive advantages. In October-November, Russian wheat was cheaper than French wheat by $10-25 per ton on FOB basis, although in previous months the spread was close to zero,” SovEcon analysts told Forbes Russia.

As the article says, then wheat alone was 104.4 million tons. To put that in perspective:

Russia had before 2016 never produced more than 64MT and as a matter of fact most often a lot less as can be seen here. Since then the harvest have been above 70MT per year. Here are the figures from the above link:

2016: 73.3MT
2017: 85.9MT (above it says 85.17, so there is a small discrepancy)
2018: 71.7MT
2019: 72.5MT (forecast, though the harvest should be finished by now, so it would just be a fine tuning of those numbers).

The following gives the production of wheat for the top 12 countries in the period 2011-2020. 2021 is not available on Wikipedia.

As the article says, then higher yields was one of the main reasons, though greater acreage was also a factor. I wonder if the new Russian incorporated regions in the Donbass are included.

Edit: Minor changes for clarity and highlighting of issues.

 

[Aeneas]

I saw this article, which can help to understand some of the fluctuations. It is about how there is an increase in the planting of corn versus other cereals such as wheat and rice depending on regions.

China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

In the article one can find this image, which shows the difference between 1981 and 2021 in what is grown in some main countries:

It doesn't show Russia, which is the main exporter of wheat, but I think the reason is that it wasn't really the focus of the article.

One of the advantages with corn is that it is planted in spring, whereas with winter wheat this is not the case. In recent years I have gotten the impression that a lot of winter wheat got destroyed due to climate conditions, which would have meant that spring plantings of an alternative would have been needed (which means extra outlay of money).
Corn has down sides too, especially if the growing seasons get shorter.

 

[Aeneas]

Russia has updated the harvest forecast for 2023 as the harvest has started.

Russia's grain harvest forecast upgraded

Agriculture consultancy IKAR projects Russia will produce 137 million tons of grain in 2023, including 88 million tons of wheat

www.rt.com

Russia's grain harvest forecast upgraded​

This year’s production is expected to be higher than earlier estimates, market researcher IKAR has said

© Getty Images / Aleksandr Rybalko
Russian farmers are projected to reap up to 137 million tons of grain, including 88 million tons of wheat this year, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).
"The forecast for the wheat crop has been increased by 1.5 million (tons) to 88 million tons, while the estimate of gross grain harvest is expected to rise to 137 million tons,” IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko told RIA Novosti on Tuesday.

Export capacity assessment has also been raised by IKAR analysts, who predict foreign sales of grain to amount to 61 million tons, including 47.5 million tons of wheat.

The consultancy upgraded its previous forecast, basing the latest report on crop production numbers released by the national statistics agency Rosstat.

According to estimates by Russia’s agriculture ministry earlier in 2023, grain output in the current agricultural year (July 2022 to June 2023) should amount to 123 million tons, including 78 million tons of wheat.
However, the ministry noted that the forecast could still be upgraded. It said that the country’s export potential for the agricultural year 2022-23 was hovering around 55 million tons.

Last year, Russian farmers harvested 157 million tons of grain and pulse crops, marking a year-on-year surge of nearly 30%. The wheat crop alone soared 37% to 104 million tons compared to 76.1 million tons recorded in 2021. The nation managed to retain its status as a net exporter of agricultural goods in 2022, reportedly accounting for every fifth export batch of wheat in the world.

From the article, it can be seen that the wheat harvest is projected to be 88 million tons, which is less than record year of 2022 which had 104 million tons but more than 76 tons in the wheat harvest in 2021.

88 million tons is still in the high end of wheat harvest in Russia, which in recent years has done much to increase domestic produce. For comparison with other years, see this post.

 

[Aeneas]

Wheat prices have fallen significantly worldwide due to Russian bumper crop.

‘Exceptional’ Russian harvest lowers global wheat prices – FT

Wheat prices have slipped to a three-year low due to abundant Russian supplies that help to offset falling Ukrainian exports, the FT reports

www.rt.com

The country is expected to export nearly 50 million tons of the grain this year

© Sputnik/Alexandr Kryazhev
Wheat prices have declined to a three-year low due to an “exceptionally strong” yield in Russia, which is helping to fill the export gap left by the shortfall from Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
Prices have dropped by more than a fifth since the end of July as Russia’s wheat export outlook has been upgraded by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to 48 million tons slated for foreign sales.
“We have seen wheat prices substantially decline basically as a result of Russia,” said Michael Magdovitz, senior commodity analyst at Rabobank.
Ukraine’s share in global wheat exports is expected to fall from 9.2% in the 2021-2022 agricultural year to 6.4% during the 2023-2024 harvest season, according to S&P estimates.
Meanwhile, Russia, already the world’s largest exporter, is set to supply 22.5% of global exports in the current agricultural year, compared to 15.9% last year.
“Ukraine’s loss has been Russia’s gain,” said Magdovitz.
According to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Moscow will export 47 million tons of wheat this year. However, chief agricultural economist at S&P Global, Paul Hughes, said he would not be surprised if it exports 50 million tons.

Traders expect that abundant supply from Russia will keep prices low, helping to offset shrinking yields in other major wheat-producing countries such as Argentina, Australia and Canada, where the current output has been downgraded.
Global wheat prices have more than halved since reaching a peak of $13 per bushel following the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine last year. Wheat futures were near $5.9 per bushel in mid-September, hovering close to the lowest level in nearly three years.
While market players expect lower wheat prices to persist, economists also warn that an escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea region could trigger a new spike at a time when inflation is fueling other agricultural commodities such as cocoa and coffee to multiyear highs.