Signs of global crop failures or just normal fluctuations

World powers continue the positioning of food resources. As global weather patterns shift!

Published Thu, Sep 10 20201:03 AM EDT
  • On Tuesday, prices of U.S. soybean futures rose to their highest levels since 2018 after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that Chinese buyers purchased 664,000 tonnes, the largest daily total since July 22.
  • “It looks like the outlook demand for the next six months or so is pretty good, so I would say U.S. farmers are feeling much more optimistic than they were a year or even six months ago,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council
105911788-1557831591319gettyimages-1142701429.jpeg

A worker displaying soybeans imported from Ukraine at the port in Nantong, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. - Imports of soybeans from the US, once China’s biggest supplier, have dropped massively since a trade war between the US and China began in 2018.
STR | AFP | Getty Images

Global soybean demand has been robust recently, with new American crop sales at record levels, said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

On Tuesday, prices of U.S. soybean futures rose to their highest levels since 2018 after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that Chinese buyers purchased 664,000 tonnes, the largest daily total since July 22.

“It looks like the outlook demand for the next six months or so is pretty good, and so I would say U.S. farmers are feeling much more optimistic than they were say, a year or even six months ago,” Sutter told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

He argued that China snapping up U.S. soybeans indicates that the phase one trade deal between the two countries is successful.

According to the agreement signed in January, China is committed to buying $12.5 billion of American agricultural goods in 2020 and another $19.5 billion in 2021. China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, importing 60% of the world’s soybean exports.

“I continue to believe that the phase one agreement is very important and is being executed well,” said Sutter.

While there are concerns that China may not be able to fulfill its commitments in the phase one deal, he explained that is largely due to the perception that purchases would take off immediately after the deal was done.

However, there were issues and details to be worked through and China is now actively buying soybeans at this time of the year on seasonal demand, said Sutter.

And the country’s soybean demand is likely to grow as the country’s hog herd numbers recover from a African swine fever outbreak, he said.

“Now, as we get into the time of the year, when China is more typically purchasing soybeans from the northern hemisphere — the United States in particular — we are seeing them make significant purchases ... we have a record amount of new crop sales open to China at this time, so we are thinking that it is a successful trade deal,” Sutter added.


Andrey Sizov Sep 9, 2020
Russia 2020 crop update * #Wheat and barley production estimates up , #corn – down * Autumn drought becomes an issue for 2021 crop * Domestic market could face barley oversupply More: https://sizov.report/?utm_source=tw



Farm Policy
Sep 9, 2020
Topsoil Moisture Percent Short to Very Short, Week Ending September 6th https://bit.ly/2ZQNXeJ
* #Iowa, 80% * #Nebraska, 73% * #Illinois, 57% * #Indiana, 52% * #SouthDakota, 53%

09 September 2020
Pattern change
An extensive omega blocking pattern is expected to develop this weekend and strengthen into the next week. A powerful surface high-pressure system will spread across a large part of Europe and bring stable and very hot weather in many areas.

In response to a changing pattern, a very strong warm advection will spread from the south into central and northern Europe. It will bring a stable, around a week-long period of very warm to hot days.

These fires are highly destructive and can damage crops and soil, harm livestock, and create a high-risk environment for agricultural workers. In addition to the dangers of an active fire, wildfire smoke, ash, and chemicals used to treat fires negatively affect air and water quality.

Farmers and farmworkers are at a greater risk for exposure and may come into more frequent contact with wildfire ash and chemical residue due to their work outdoors and long shifts, both during an active fire and as well as during cleanup and recovery. Lost workdays can affect workers economically as well. Regardless of their proximity to wildfires, agricultural workers can struggle with stress and other mental health issues related to the effects of wildfires.

WCAHS is working with agricultural stakeholders to conduct research on the impact of wildfires on the safety and health of agricultural workers. Our research with farmers and farmworkers in the Imperial, Central, and Salinas valleys address farmers’ perceptions of the risks to their workforce and farmworkers’ perceptions of personal risk.
 
Ag Watchers- Podcast
RT- -37:30 10:24 AM · Sep 26, 2020
Russia has in recent years been the driver of global wheat pricing, we thought it was time to talk to someone close to the action. Who better to talk to than Andrey Sizov.

Andrey is the leading black sea agricultural markets analyst, he is the managing director of Sovecon, and writer of the sizov report.Topics covered include;

The rise of Russia as a wheat producer from the USSR.
How climate change has helped Russian wheat, but what about the future?
Forecasting the Russian wheat cropInfrastructure challenges..
The two main challenges facing the Russian grain industry.


Follow Andrey on twitter for his insights on sizov_andre, and check out his research on his website sizov.report
 
As of today what should have been the Indian Summer Havest (in the area of Angos), has given away to muddy fields, cooler temps, and rain over the last week. With more pecipation to follow in the coming week.

Also so weird to drive for miles on oct 10th and see nothing in the fields. Beans harvested and corn disced under


Wildfires Devastate California Wineries: 'It's Like a Bad Dream' | WSJ
Oct 5, 2020 / 3:06

10/9/2020 Snip:
The U.S. and world have lower and lower amounts soybeans, all of the time, according to the USDA.

On Friday, the USDA released its October Supply/Demand Report.

As a result, the CME Group’s farm markets jumped. Soybeans rallied 25¢, corn up 4¢, and wheat up 5¢.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 8¢ higher at $3.95½. March corn futures closed 7½¢ higher at $4.02¼.

Nov. soybean futures settled 15½¢ higher at $10.65¾. January soybean futures closed 17¼¢ lower at $10.65.

Dec. wheat futures closed 1½¢ lower at $5.93½.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.10 per short ton higher at $363.70. Dec. soy oil futures settled $1.01 cent higher at 34.01¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.61 per barrel lower at $40.58. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points higher.

U.S. 2020/21 Production

For corn, the U.S. crop is estimated at 14.7 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 14.82 billion and the USDA’s previous estimate of 14.9 billion bushels.

The U.S. corn yield is estimated at 178.4 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 177.9 bu./acre and the USDA’s September estimate of 178.5.

The U.S. harvested area is pegged at 82.5 million acres vs. the trade’s expectation of 83.3 million and the USDA’s September estimate of 83.5 million.
For soybeans, total 2020/21 output is estimated at 4.26 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.28 billion and the USDA’s September estimate of 4.31 billion.

The U.S. avg. yield is pegged at 51.9 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 51.7 bu./acre and the USDA’s September estimate of 51.9.

The U.S. soybean harvested area is pegged at 82.5 million acres vs. the trade’s estimate of 82.9 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 83.0 million.



Sun, 11 Oct 2020 /10:17
We are beginning to see the interlacing of Grand Soar Minimum intensification reducing the length of growing seasons, leading to higher food prices where people cannot afford to eat after all of the business closures across continents. This is pushing the need for food banks, but China experienced the worst crop wipe out in the last 200 year and are actively buying grain and commodity crops across the planet, driving up prices further. This in turn adds 10% to food prices where more people can't afford food, sending them to food banks. Record waterspout count in the Great Lakes as South America enters a drought further reducing global grain totals. The spiral is in play.
 
Were getting pounded by rain here, with snow (possible on the valley floor), maybe over the next couple days.



Oct 9, 2020
Civil society organisations are calling on the EU to halt the production and export of banned pesticides to third countries, some of which they say can be detected in food sold back to the EU market.

Despite being banned in the EU, European companies continue to produce and sell pesticides to third countries with lower human health and environmental laws.

A recent study authored by Swiss NGO Public Eye and the Greenpeace’s investigative journalist team Unearthed found that 41 banned pesticides were notified for export from the EU in 2018, predominantly from seven countries.

This continues on the back of an EU commitment to reduce the use of hazardous pesticides on European soil, which campaigners say undermines the EU’s green ambitions.

Under the EU’s flagship food policy, the Farm to Fork (F2F) strategy, the EU has committed to set a trade policy that supports a European ecological transition while at the same time promoting a global transition to sustainable agrifood systems.

“EU trade policy should enhance cooperation with and to obtain ambitious commitments from third countries in key areas,” the F2F strategy reads, offering up the use of pesticides as an example.

“Through its external policies, including international cooperation and trade policy, the EU will pursue the development of Green Alliances on sustainable food systems with all its partners,” it says, adding that the EU will seek to ensure that there is an ambitious sustainability chapter in all EU bilateral trade agreements.

21/09/2020
Honeybees are being trained to ‘sniff out’ sunflowers in a bid to stimulate crop production.

Scientists at the Universidad de Buenos Aires31172-6), Argentina discovered that bees could be conditioned like sniffer dogs to pick up scents. The team now hopes that this will help make bees more efficient during the pollination process.

A honeybee colony was given food which had been layered with a synthetic odour mimicking the smell of sunflowers. These bees were then found to have visited sunflowers more frequently, leading to a notable increase in crop production.

The findings could be good news for other crops which rely on pollination too, as the method could work for plants like apples or almonds, say scientists.

"We show that it's possible to condition honeybees to a rewarded odour inside the colony, and this experience modifies the bees' odour-guided behaviours later," says Walter Farina, who led the research.

"The most surprising and relevant result is that the foraging preferences for the target crop are so prolonged and intensive that it promoted significant increases in the crop yields."

A honeybee never forgets

This isn’t the first time Farina and his team have made a significant discovery about bees. Previously the researchers found that honeybees are able to establish long-term, stable memories related to food scents they had encountered in the nest. These memories then influenced the bees’ choices about which crops they would visit in future.

Farina was able to use this understanding of in-hive memories to develop the new research on foraging preferences. The scientists were able to manipulate the bees’ memories through the artificial sunflower odour, leading them to actively choose to visit sunflowers more.

The honeybees in the study also brought more sunflower pollen back to their hive.

"Through this procedure, it is possible to bias honeybee foraging activity and increase yields significantly," Farina says. "In other words, pollination services might be improved in pollinator-dependent crops by using simple mimic odours as part of a precision pollination strategy."

The sunflowers used in the research were found to have increased their seed production from 29 to 57 per cent.

Farina and his team are now looking at how to apply these findings to other crops which depend on pollination. By using odour mimics, the researchers hope to improve the overall efficiency of pollination, as climate change continues to threaten pollinating insects like honeybees.

Find the press release from the Prefect of Haute-Saône on the damage caused by wild boars in Haute-Saône
Mise à jour le 14/10/2020
State services, in close collaboration with the Departmental Federation of Hunters, are mobilized to provide responses and prevent the damage committed by wild boars in Haute-Saône.

This action begins with the mobilization of the hunting grounds. Several authorizations for beatings in hunting reserves have already been given by the Departmental Federation of Hunters.

The prefect of Haute-Saône asked for the intervention of the lieutenants of the louveterie. Six beatings were organized over the last two weekends and made it possible to collect 27 wild boars.

Representatives of the departmental commission for hunting and wildlife (CDCFS game damage training) met last week, in particular to monitor wild boar samples at the department level and more particularly in classified municipalities. in surveillance, alert and black spots. The rules adopted for the hunting season set for these last two categories harvest targets of 20 and 25% of adult sows respectively. These will be the subject of regular monitoring to trigger, if necessary, corrective measures (administrative battles, for example).

These actions are in line with the goal shared by all stakeholders to reduce wild boar populations as quickly as possible.

Finally, the Prefect draws the attention of landowners, in particular land located in peri-urban areas that cannot be hunted down, near homes, to their duty of maintenance. Some wastelands can indeed encourage the concentration of numerous wild boars, causing damage to neighboring land, agricultural plots and gardens.

 
Premiered Oct 16, 2020 Video / 15:58 / Via Ice Age Farmer
The media is blaming shortages of corn on the virus, but both common sense and a new study out of Canada attribute massive crop losses to the fact that our sun is dropping into a modern Grand Solar Minimum.

It is this that is driving the timeline for totalitarian takeover and lockdowns, even when it seems less than ideal — the technocrats have a deadline: the food is running out. Spread the word and start growing food today.
 
Future positions as the government stockpiles prepare.


Tweet 1
[Maximum over 1663 kg] The corn expert guidance group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized experts to test the yield of the corn densely planted high-yield demonstration field of the Crop Science Institute of Crop Science Innovation Team of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. The results show that the demonstration field has the highest corn yield per mu It reached 1663.25 kg, breaking the current national high-yield record of 1517.11 kg, and realizing a substantial increase of 146.14 kg. This is the seventh time that the team has set a record for high-yield corn in my country.
Line 2
The so-called demonstration field refers to a situation with no strong wind, no hail, no drought, and no waterlogging. If these conditions are met, most of the land in Northeast China can yield 1,500 jin per mu. The problem is that the recent drought or waterlogging has caused farmers brothers. If there are many mountains, they have already lost their money. Land insurance compensation is pitifully small. Officials, open your eyes and see the peasants' suffering

Highlights:
Chapter Six of the Phase One Agreement alsocontains specific commitments to expand trade in U.S. goods and services and will support a dramatic expansion of U.S. food, agriculture,and seafood product exportsto China,increasing Americanfarm and fishery income, generating more rural economic activity,and promoting jobgrowth.

Using the bestmethodology, we have calculated that China has purchased approximately 71percent of its target for 2020. They have purchased $23.6 billion in agricultural products so far this year. This is substantiallymore than the base year of 2017, and should end up being our best year ever in sales to China. It is still to be seen whether they meet their target but particularly given the COVID-19 effects on the global economy they are making substantial progress. It is worth noting that the Phase One Agreement did not go into effect until February 14, 2020,and March is the first full month of its effect. That means that we have seen seven months of agreement sales

...we have proportionally adjusted upward to cover products not included in the weekly reports. This methodology has proven accurate and corresponds with thesimilarnumbers China keeps. Again,the highlight of this interim report is that we already are on pace to have all-time high salesto Chinain beef, pork, corn, and soybeans.

These changes affect the entire range of agriculture products, including corn, soybeans, dairy products, poultry, pork, beef, horticultural products,pet food, and animal feed. The result is an historic expansion in the ability of our farmers and ranchers to sell their products to China. Before thePhase One Agreement, only approximately 1,500 facilities in the U.S. could export agricultural goods to China. Today, that number has increased to more than 4,000 facilities.

Our dairy farmers have also seen expanded opportunities to export to China. Prior to the Phase One Agreement, U.S. dairy and infant formula exports faced restrictive Chinese regulatory requirements that limited their ability to export to China. Because of the Phase One Agreement, China now recognizes the U.S. food safety system of oversight for dairy products, giving U.S. dairy and infant formula companies increased access to China while also providing Chinese consumers with a wider variety of high quality and safe U.S. products.As a result, exports of U.S. dairy products to China were already up 38percent from January throughAugust2020 compared to the same period in 2019, and are expected to continue to rise.

52020 Sales Far Outpacing 2017 Sales
Chart 1: 2017 & 2020 Monthly U.S. Agricultural Exports to China (Non-Cumulative) (BillionUSD)
7 U.S. corn exports and sales to China have taken off.
8 China’s purchases continue to rise for U.S. sorghum
China’s record purchases of pork and beef
U.S. pork exports to China hit an all-time recordin just the first fivemonths of 2020.
10 U.S. beef exports to China have tripled.
11 Exports of certain fruits, vegetables, and other specialty crops have increased


 
October 25, 2020
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — The Dutch government is ordering poultry farms to keep their birds indoors after six wild swans were found recently dead and tests on two of the birds came back positive for a highly pathogenic strain of bird flu. Agriculture Minister Carola Schouten said Thursday the order comes into force at midnight. She says experts believe the disease likely was brought to the Netherlands by birds migrating from Russia and Kazakhstan because the same strain circulated there over the summer. The order to keep birds indoors on farms is intended to prevent the infection spreading from wild birds to farmed animals.

October 23, 2020 Snip:
Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, breaks down the October cattle on feed report from USDA. Overall the report was not friendly to the market given the large placements.
According to the USDA cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on October 1, 2020. The inventory was 4 percent above October 1, 2019. This is the highest October 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.

The inventory included 7.31 million steers and steer calves, up 6 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.41 million head, down slightly from 2019.


How is Corporate Media Missing This ?
Adapt 2030 Premiered Oct 24, 2020 / 12:16
40F below normal temperatures with record doubling snowfalls expected and already occurring across N. America. USA passes new legislation focused on "Space Weather" and protecting electrical infrastructure and the USDA already indicating this years harvest totals are incorrect and the agency will adjust next year.

Rural Radio Markets Oct 23
USDA Flash Sale -100,000 MT of #corn sold to unknown for 20/21 marketing year.
@rrnmarkets


RT-48:46
Farmer focus podcasts are designed to do exactly what the name implies - focus on the perspectives of farmers. In this episode, four farmers from three different farm operations share their perspectives on how digital agriculture currently plays a role in their harvest operations and how they are using yield data to improve their farming practices. These farmers also offer some suggestions for technologies that would help them operate more efficiently. Toward the end of the episode, each farmer speculates on how digital agriculture might affect their operations in the future. Learning from a diversity of farmer perspectives on digital agriculture usage is important for researchers, professionals, and farmers alike, and that's exactly what this episode delivers. One of the primary conclusions from this episode is that when it comes to digital technologies it is all about finding the technologies that work best for your operation. Right now, that means that these growers are identifying whatever software is available to help them - whether that software is specialized for agriculture or not - and piecing it together to create their desired solution. As we look toward the future of digital technologies in harvest, it's clear that these farmers already have a vision for how digital agriculture will help shape their future operations.
Edit add:

RitaBuyse @ACOMRB
10:48 AM · Oct 26, 2020 Taiwan's MFIG seeks corn for March 2021 arrival
- 40,000-65,000 mt of No. 2 Corn (plus/minus 5%)
- from US , Brazil, Argentina or South Africa
Close: Oct. 27, 0600 GMT (1400 TPE) - Platts
 
Last edited:
Japan has just announced that it will cull a record breaking 1.6 million chickens after an outbreak of bird flu in the nations largest poultry farm. It's the first time it has been detected in Eastern Japan.

I don't know the details of bird flu but considering the authorities overreaction to the BSE (mad cow disease) problem years ago, and the recent mink culls because of unfounded fears of animal to human tranmission, i do wonder whether all of these culls are really necessary. At least in case of bird flu, maybe it is. And in the end it's hardly an idea source of protein. But it is at least a source of animal protein for people.

The issue arises when we consider all of these issues affecting the food supply, such as the mountains of food that were dumped during the lockdown. Because taken together one would think that they will eventually have a very tangible impact on the supply of nutritional food available.


Bird flu hits largest poultry farm in Japan, record 1.6 million chickens to be culled


Nippon.com

Thu, 24 Dec 2020 15:00 UTC

Chiba Prefecture announced Thursday an outbreak of avian influenza believed to be highly pathogenic at a chicken farm in the city of Isumi in the eastern Japan prefecture.

Since November, farm outbreaks of such bird flu have occurred in 12 prefectures, including the western prefecture of Kagawa and the southwestern prefecture of Miyazaki. Chiba is the 13th prefecture to report an outbreak this year and the first to do so in eastern Japan.

Chiba has the second-largest number of farmed egg-laying hens in the country, after Ibaraki Prefecture, also in eastern Japan.

The affected poultry farm is one of the largest of its kind in the nation.

To stem the spread of the infection, the Chiba prefectural government will cull all of some 1.16 million chickens at the farm, the biggest number ever in a single bird flu outbreak case in Japan.
 
A farmer in England i follow on Twitter seems to be struggling with what may be above average rainfall for the second year running. I suspect he may have a point because a farmer i met in France who had been farming for many years in the same area said he had been struggling in the last few years with unusually heavy rainfall.

This also appears to be supported by some weather sites that seem to show in some areas there's been nearly a doubling of rainfall, whilst at other times of the year, and in other places, they're experiencing record drought conditions.

This cyclical shift to extremes during times of climate upheaval was reported in yet another research paper recently.

 
Last edited:
Texas A&M University reports:

Winter Storm Uri caused at least $600 million in agricultural losses across Texas


Winter Storm Uri caused at least $600 million in agricultural losses across Texas, according to preliminary data from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agricultural economists.

"A large number of Texas farmers, ranchers and others involved in commercial agriculture and agricultural production were seriously affected by Winter Storm Uri," said Jeff Hyde, AgriLife Extension director, Bryan-College Station. "Freezing temperatures and ice killed or harmed many of their crops and livestock as well as causing financial hardships and operational setbacks. And the residual costs from the disaster could plague many producers for years to come."

AgriLife Extension estimates that the following sectors were among the state's biggest agricultural losses by commodity:
  • Citrus crops, at least $230 million
  • Livestock, at least $228 million
  • Vegetable crops, at least $150 million
Another agricultural sector that experienced significant losses was the green industry. AgriLife Extension, in collaboration with the Texas Nursery and Landscape Association, developed and distributed a loss assessment survey to more than 4,000 nursery, greenhouse and other green industry-related businesses requesting input on the type and extent of losses encountered. It will be several weeks before there is sufficient data to provide an assessment of those losses.

Rest of article here.

See also:
 
Texas A&M University reports:

Winter Storm Uri caused at least $600 million in agricultural losses across Texas


Winter Storm Uri caused at least $600 million in agricultural losses across Texas, according to preliminary data from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agricultural economists.

"A large number of Texas farmers, ranchers and others involved in commercial agriculture and agricultural production were seriously affected by Winter Storm Uri," said Jeff Hyde, AgriLife Extension director, Bryan-College Station. "Freezing temperatures and ice killed or harmed many of their crops and livestock as well as causing financial hardships and operational setbacks. And the residual costs from the disaster could plague many producers for years to come."

AgriLife Extension estimates that the following sectors were among the state's biggest agricultural losses by commodity:
  • Citrus crops, at least $230 million
  • Livestock, at least $228 million
  • Vegetable crops, at least $150 million
Another agricultural sector that experienced significant losses was the green industry. AgriLife Extension, in collaboration with the Texas Nursery and Landscape Association, developed and distributed a loss assessment survey to more than 4,000 nursery, greenhouse and other green industry-related businesses requesting input on the type and extent of losses encountered. It will be several weeks before there is sufficient data to provide an assessment of those losses.

Rest of article here.

See also:
 
Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre
5:15 AM · May 15, 2021

• They have almost rebuilt the herd, which now stands at 98% of pre-ASF level. The recovery was slower than planned because of ASF, mainly in northern provinces • CN 1Q 2021 pork imports hit 1.2 MMT(almost +30% YOY) 2/
• CN pork imports will start to decline later this year. Total imports are expected at 3.8 MMT, 14% down from the previous record year • The country has accumulated huge frozen pork reserves which currently put additional pressure on prices 3/
• Same herd size but more productive and efficient, as share of small farms is declining fast. This could have two important consequences: more pork and less imports in the future + higher demand for crops, #soybeans first of all (no more leftovers in feeding) 4/
• ASF is likely to stay for a long time but they have learned how to deal with it (i.e. similar to the EU)-> no serious issues for the industry • Industry expansion will continue and “after 2023, there will be an EXCESS SUPPLY phase for 2 consecutive years”(!!) – CN AgMin
• So IF CN AGMIN IS RIGHT -> bullish #soybeans and #corn, bearish #pork RT the first tweet if you like the summary, please. One of the sources used:
https://pigprogress.net/World-of-Pigs1/Articles/2021/5/Chinas-pig-production-will-grow-19-in-2021-745100E/…



California Nevada DEWS March 2021 Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar
Mar 23, 2021 RT / 1:07:50 / YouTube
According to the March 16 U.S. Drought Monitor, 90.6% of CA and 100% of NV are in drought. The wet season is almost over and there's little chance for snowpack to reach normal levels. Worse, this is the second year in a row with below-normal snowpack. This webinar discussed current conditions and outlook as well as an overview of California and Nevada rangeland conditions. The California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (CA-NV DEWS) March 2021 Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar is part of a series of regular drought and climate outlook webinars designed to provide stakeholders and other interested parties in the region with timely information on current drought status and impacts, as well as a preview of current and developing climatic events (i.e. El Niño and La Niña)

Published date: 14 May 2021
Snip:
Russia currently applies a €50/t export duty on wheat shipments, which is due to remain in place until the end of June, as part of government efforts to reduce local food prices. The duty is planned to be replaced by a permanent floating export tax from 2 June.

The flexible duty is not expected to be charged if export wheat prices are below the base fixed price of $200/t. If prices exceed $200/t, a 70pc duty will be applied on the difference between the basic export price and the base level of $200/t.

Russian wheat prices have been comfortably above $200/t on the export market in recent months. Argus assessed the spot fob Russian 12.5pc grade wheat contract at $271.50/t at yesterday's close, while 2021-22 crop for July-August shipment was heard in a range of $270-275/t fob earlier this week.

Still, Russian wheat exports next year are anticipated to total 40mn t, unchanged from this year and the highest level in the world. This is amid expectations of high stocks by the end of this year and weaker domestic consumption next year. Russian wheat 2020-21 ending stocks are expected to reach 8.5mn t, up from 5.8mn t a year earlier but below 12mn t previously forecast by the USDA.

Agriculture
U.S. Crops and Livestock in Drought
(Corn Soybeans Hay Cattle Wheat)
USDM Updates Weekly - 05/11/21
1,360 counties with crops experiencing drought (D1–D4)
151.6 Million acres of crops experiencing drought (D1–D4)
14.1 Million beef cattle experiencing drought (D1–D4)
646 counties with drought declarations

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) conducts hundreds of surveys each year and a Census of Agriculture every 5 years. NASS prepares reports covering virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture, including agricultural commodities statistics for crops and livestock.
https://youtu.be/pUd8av4jKV8
This map displays USDA corn crop production (data from 2014) alongside current U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) drought designations. Learn more
https://youtu.be/pUd8av4jKV8
us_crops_and_livestock_in_drought.jpeg
https://youtu.be/pUd8av4jKV8
 
This article caught my eye and i thought to post this in this thread as it seems very soon, due to a carefully executed (criminal) agenda, California's water crisis will not only impact California but can lead to food supply catastrophes for the whole USA.

Some snips:

Aside from severe drought across many states in the US (the Dakota's, Illinois, Minnesota, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico), the one in California is by far the most serious in its potential impact on the supply of agriculture products to the nation. There, irrigation and a sophisticated water storage system provide water for irrigation and urban use to the state for their periodic dry seasons. Here a far larger catastrophe is in the making. A cyclical drought season is combining with literally criminal state environmental politics, to devastate agriculture in the nation’s most important farm producing state. It is part of a radical Green Agenda being advocated by Gov. Gavin Newsom and fellow Democrats to dismantle traditional agriculture, as insane as it may sound.

California’s agricultural sector is the most important in the United States, leading the nation’s production in over 77 different products including dairy and a number of fruit and vegetable “specialty” crops. It also is second in production of livestock behind Texas, and its dairy industry is California’s leading commodity in cash receipts. In total, 43 million acres of the state’s 100 million acres are devoted to agriculture. In short what happens here is vital to the nation’s food supply.

In June 2019 Shasta Dam, holding the state’s largest reservoir as a keystone of the huge Central Valley Project, was full to 98% of capacity. Just two years later in May 2021 Shasta Lake reservoir held a mere 42% of capacity, almost 60% down. Similarly, in June 2019 Oroville Dam reservoir, the second largest, held water at 98% of capacity and by May 2021 was down to just 37%. Other smaller reservoirs saw similar drops. Where has all the water gone?

Allegedly to “save” these fish varieties,
during just 14 days in May, according to Kristi Diener, a California water expert and farmer, “90% of (Bay Area) Delta inflow went to sea. It’s equal to a year’s supply of water for 1 million people.” Diener has been warning repeatedly in recent years that water is unnecessarily being let out to sea as the state faces a normal dry year. She asks, “Should we be having water shortages in the start of our second dry year? No. Our reservoirs were designed to provide a steady five year supply for all users, and were filled to the top in June 2019.”

In 2020 Gov. Gavin Newsom, a protégé of Jerry Brown, signed Senate Bill 1, the California Environmental, Public Health and Workers Defense Act, which would send billions of gallons of water out to the Pacific Ocean, ostensibly to save more fish. It was a cover for manufacturing the present water crisis and specifically attacking farming, as incredible as it may seem.


The true agenda of the Newsom and previous Brown administrations is to radically undermine the highly productive California agriculture sector. Gov. Newsom has now introduced an impressive-sounding $5.1 billion Drought Relief bill. Despite its title, nothing will go to improve the state reservoir water availability for cities and farms. Of the total, $500 million will be spent on incentives for farmers to “re-purpose” their land, that is to stop farming. Suggestions include wildlife habitat, recreation, or solar panels! Another $230 million will be used for “wildlife corridors and fish passage projects to improve the ability of wildlife to migrate safely.” “Fish passage projects” is a clever phrase for dam removal, destroying the nation’s most effective network of reservoirs.

Then the Newson bill allocates $300 million for the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act implementation, a 2014 law from Jerry Brown amid the previous severe drought to prevent farmers in effect from securing water from drilling wells. The effect will be to drive more farmers off the land. And another $200 million will go to “habitat restoration,” supporting tidal wetland, floodplains, and multi-benefit flood-risk reduction projects—a drought package with funding for floods? This is about recreating flood plains so when they demolish the dams, the water has someplace to go. The vast bulk of the $500 billion is slated to reimburse water customers from the previous 2011-2019 drought from higher water bills, a move no doubt in hopes voters will look positively on Newsom as he faces likely voter recall in November.

The systematic dismantling of one of the world’s most productive agriculture regions, using the seductive mantra of “environmental protection,” fits into the larger agenda of the Davos Great Reset and its plans to radically transform world agriculture into what the UN Agenda 2030 calls “sustainable” agriculture—no more meat protein. The green argument is that cows are a major source of methane gas emissions via burps. How that affects global climate no one has seriously proven. Instead we should eat laboratory-made fake meat like the genetically-manipulated Impossible Burger of Bill Gates and Google, or even worms. Yes. In January the EU European Food Safety Agency (EFSA), approved mealworms , or larvae of the darkling beetle, as the first “novel food” cleared for sale across the EU.

 
According to the CBC article below, the heatwave in the US and Canada is predicted to cause a significant reduction in the quality and quantity of the canola and spring wheat harvest, with the cost of both already at record highs. In recent years Canada and the US have also had to struggle through summer floodng and early/heavy snowfalls that caused crop losses.

Interestingly, it says that last year was one of the best years for some crops, whereas this year may be considered one of the worst. Last year the jet stream was relatively uniform and this year has, up until recently, been meandering.

Notably, over in Russia, they're recording record wheat harvests. And in China the government has begun to subsidize farmers because commodity prices has caused fertilizer and fuel to become affordable. This stands in contrast to Europe where it seems governments have almost been actively trying to put smaller farmers out of business with excessive regulations and lack of subsidies. In recent years EU farmers were on the streets protesting with an increasing regularity but this seems to have died during the lockdown.



Translation:
'Canadian rapeseed (#canola ), at the beginning / full flowering, is subject to high temperatures > 40 ° C which poses problems of floral abortions. Given the forecasts, the impact on yield will be significant. The price of rapeseed soars, a record since 1982

Extreme heat wallops wheat and canola crops, pushing prices to record highs'




Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: Jun 29, 2021 3:05 PM ET | Last Updated: June 29


Spring wheat grows in a field before harvest near Brunkild, Man., last year. While 2020 was a decent one for Canadian grain crops, 2021 is shaping up to be a disaster. (Shannon VanRaes/Bloomberg)


The scorching heat baking large swaths of Western Canada and the United States is pushing up prices for spring wheat and canola to record highs, as hot and dry conditions are likely to hurt the harvests of both, making whatever survives more valuable.

The active contract for spring wheat — so named because it is planted in the spring and harvested in the summer — was changing hands for $8.34 US a bushel on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange on Tuesday, its highest level since 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


1625131423253.png

Prices for spring wheat were already high before they rose by more than 10 per cent this week. The reason is simple: the hot, dry weather parked over much of North America's west can produce stress on crops such as wheat, which can reduce both the quality and quantity of the harvest.

Spring wheat typically has a higher price than winter wheat because it tends to have a higher protein content, but that's in doubt this year because of the weather.

Only about 20 per cent of the U.S. spring wheat harvest is deemed to be in good or excellent condition right now, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Last week, more than a quarter of it was thought to be OK. This time last year, almost 70 per cent of it was considered in good condition.

According to the U.S. Wheat Associates, the export market development organization for the U.S. wheat industry, "Drought conditions have worsened, raising abandonment and yield concerns."

Phil Flynn, a commodities analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago, says spring wheat prices are booming because it has been hot and dry just about everywhere it's planted in the U.S. this year.

"A short crop is increasingly likely," he said. "More rain is possible later this week, but spring wheat areas could get shortchanged again."

'Worst crop in history'​


It's the same story in Canada. Stephen Vandervalk, a grain and oilseeds farmer near Calgary said in an interview with CBC News that this year's crop is "looking like the worst crop in history."

"Southwest of Calgary there's essentially nowhere with nice crops," he said. "Some areas there's going to be nothing."

The situation with canola looks even worse, he said, because it's coming on the heels of what was in retrospect one of the best years ever for the crop.

Canola dislikes hot and dry weather almost as much as spring wheat does, which is why Vandervalk thinks this year's harvest will be a "wreck."

This year's canola harvest will be much smaller, which is why the price of what's available is skyrocketing. The spot price for canola hit a record high of more than $800 per metric tonne on Monday. That's the highest price on records that date back to 1982, according to Bloomberg data.





Why this heat is so bad for canola​



Personally, Vandervalk says he will be going from having 300,000 bushels of canola to maybe 70,000 bushels, but he knows many other areas will be even worse. "They won't even harvest."

The heat and lack of water is bad for crops at the best of times, but it's made worse by what those conditions tend to bring.

"Hot and dry like this, the bugs are completely out of control," he said.

"That's the thing with mother nature, when it goes bad it goes really bad."
 
Notably, over in Russia, they're recording record wheat harvests.
Bear in mind that this was the prediction before the actual season kicked in. I think by the end of August the harvest will be finished in Russia so time will tell. Russia had made a concerted effort to increase land use and ensure food self-sufficiency, so it would not be surprising to see it bear fruit (pun not intended). Much can change during the actual growing season though as itellsya shows above with the example of the canola crop in parts of Canada.
 

Trending content

Back
Top Bottom