Signs of global crop failures or just normal fluctuations

etezete

Jedi Council Member
Germany just shutdown Europe's largest meat processing plant following testing for the coronavirus, and then claims of an 'outbreak'.
[...]

Be aware of the fact that they always speak of "People contracting the virus", aka infected peeps, but very rarely they speak about peeps "falling ill". Huge difference.

I think that they test people at those plants on purpose. Knowing that a load of peeps in general already contracted the virus, and therefore those tested there will in the majority test positive - mostly without falling ill. All those players like Gates and all have invested in those fake meat production sites, deriving meat from cell samples. Just like those manufacturers of "celeb salami" which is gross and cannibalistic.
 
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Oxajil

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
In the Netherlands, Covid-19 was allegedly detected in several slaughterhouses (employees allegedly caught the virus, in one case for example 45 out of 115 employees), which according to a poll, led to a quarter of the Dutch population not trusting meat anymore. 23% is thinking of consuming less meat. Some slaughterhouses had to close (temporarily, I think).

So, besides possible meat shortages, there could also be less meat consumption due to fear of somehow contracting the virus by consumption. It seems to me that Covid-1984 is also being milked to further try to lessen meat consumption. Luckily, the majority still enjoys meat, and half of consumers are willing to pay more for meat products if it helps the employees of the slaughterhouses, according to the poll.
 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Recently came across the following video. It appears there will be been a bumper harvest of grain in the north west of China this year (and away from the humongous flooding currently swamping southern areas). I just thought I'd throw it in as most reports these days are of a less than positive nature - crops failures, coming food shortages and so on. (I still do wonder though if it is true or transpires to be so.)

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Bumper summer harvest in NW China's Xinjiang

The summer grain harvest is underway in northwest China's Xinjiang since mid-June. The country will see a bumper summer harvest this year, with summer grain acreage standing at about 26.67 mln ha.
 

Persej

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
So after a month of rain the sun finally arrived, and today entire village collected hay cubes. That is, those who had hay fields which were not flooded. And guess what, this year the amount of cubes that we got is HALF of what we usually get. My neighbor confirmed this from his results. I thought that at least the grass is resistant to these weather fluctuations, but apparently not.

On the other hand, the potato and blueberries are doing great. It's interesting that so far this year there was no potato beetle, which appears every year.
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
...Both corn and soybeans futures shot-up in price after the report was released Tuesday. Wheat prices also climbed as U.S. farmers are on track to plant the smallest crop on record.

Total U.S. wheat acreage this year is estimated at just 44.3 million — the lowest amount of acres planted since USDA began keeping records in 1919, the June 30 report said.

The reduction in spring wheat acreage is again the result of cold and wet weather during the 2020 planting season.

“It was wet, it was cold, things weren’t drying out,” Olson said.

And on top of the dire corn and wheat numbers, a double-digit decrease in potato acreage is also being suffered. Thousands of acres of potatoes weren’t harvested last fall because of cold and wet field conditions — the fresh commodity, unlike corn, spoils if left in the field until spring...

 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
A report out of China of a historic record harvest despite the excessive flooding in many areas and the scamdemic, which seems to go against the grain :-).

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BEIJING, July 22 (Xinhua) -- China has reaped a bumper summer grain harvest despite the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, an encouraging achievement for a country whose population of 1.4 billion means food security is of paramount importance.

President Xi Jinping has on many occasions stressed the importance of food security, saying that "the rice bowl of the Chinese people, in any situation, must be firmly held in our own hands."

Early this year when the COVID-19 epidemic hit, Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, urged all-out efforts to organize spring plowing while taking differentiated anti-epidemic measures, so that farmers would not miss the farming season and a good summer harvest would be guaranteed.

The following facts and figures indicate the nation's accomplishments in summer grain production and the efforts behind them:

-- China's summer grain output reached a historic high of 142.81 million tonnes this year, up 0.9 percent from last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

While the total area used to grow summer crops declined 0.7 percent year on year to 26.17 million hectares this year, the average output per hectare rose 1.6 percent, leading to the overall output increase, the NBS said.

-- As the world's top food producer and consumer, China saw its grain output reach a record high of 664 million tonnes last year, the 16th bumper year in a row. The record-breaking summer grain harvest has paved the way for another bumper year.

-- In 1949 when the People's Republic of China was founded, the national grain output was only 113 million tonnes.

-- A 100-day project was launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) in March aimed at securing a good summer grain harvest. Among its targets was keeping the rate of loss due to meteorological disasters under 5 percent, with the same target for losses due to disease and pests.

More than 1.6 billion yuan (about 229 million U.S. dollars) was allocated from both the central and local budgets for the prevention and control of wheat diseases and pests during the implementation of the project.

-- China aims to develop 80 million mu (5.33 million hectares) of high-standard farmland that is well facilitated this year. By the end of June, the target was 54 percent complete, according to the MARA.

China aims to develop 1 billion mu of such farmland in total by 2022 with a reliable grain output of 500 million tonnes.
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Regarding crop production in the future (and associated geopolitical manoeuvring) this video by Adapt 2030 is quite interesting:

Adapt 2030 Ice Age Report: Controlling water in Africa, a Grand Solar Minimum cycle

With eyes on China's once in a 400 year flood event ruining the years grain production, we should be looking at Ethiopia's new Renaissance Dam and the implications for food production up the Nile River. Historically Ethiopia was home to great kingdoms that flourished, controlled trade routes and had the premium weight and measure for gold and silver coinage in the Axum era 300 A.D.

China and the western powers are in a match to control that Red Sea access point for new grain growing areas in N. Africa coming on line. Who controls the water controls food production in N.E Africa for the next 100 years.


EccUgJ_XkAA7IaD


Countries offering assistance to Ethiopia Cartoon https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EccUgJ_Xk...
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Tractors on the Malieveld in previous protests last October. Photo: Molly Quell Two Dutch farming associations have walked out of talks with the government about controlling the level of nitrogen-based pollutants in manure.

LTO Nederland and young farmers’ group the NAJK have said that they will no longer take part in discussions about the protein levels of cattle feed until expert reports have been completed, reports NOS.

Environment minister Carola Schouten has said she would put the government proposal and counter proposals to the environmental assessment agency Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, to study their potential effects.

The ministry told NOS that these reports are expected to be completed in the second half of August, ‘and that is the moment to talk further.’

Farmers have been protesting since the start of July, saying that temporarily reducing the protein supplement ledutvels in milk cow feed for three months could harm animal health, and would cost them more.

It is also associated with lower milk yield. The government argues that in order to meet its pollution targets, the agricultural sector needs to reduce nitrogen-based pollutants; it says this would allow more emissions in sectors such as building houses to combat a national shortage.

Tractors banned from latest farmers' protest against anti-pollution rules

Farmers face fines as police act to keep tractors off Brabant motorways



Reuters 04 Aug 2020
PARIS: European wheat futures fell to a one-month low on Tuesday as increasing expectations for Russia's harvest countered support from a disappointing crop and slow farmer selling in France.

Front-month September milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext, settled down 0.50 euro, or 0.3%, at 179.75 euros ($211.55) a tonne.
It earlier fell to 179.25 euros, its lowest since June 30, adding to steeper losses on Monday.

The more active December contract also struck a one-month low at 179.50 euros, before settling 0.3% lower at 180.25 euros.
Paris prices were again pressured by falling Chicago futures , as traders factored in an increased forecast of Russia's wheat harvest by widely followed consultancy IKAR.

Chart support around 180 euros and reduced harvest supply in France were underpinning Euronext, however, traders said.
The smaller French crop coupled with recent strength in the euro has curbed early season exports. Preliminary Refinitiv loading data showed France shipped its smallest volume of soft wheat outside the European Union for July in at least a decade.

Traders in Germany cited demand from French exporters for German wheat.

"The main export business in past days has been sales to French traders seeking wheat of at least 11% protein meeting Algeria's import specifications," one German trader said.

"French trading houses have bought German wheat for September/October delivery at level or one euro under the Euronext December contract, apparently as a guarantee of deliveries in Algerian purchases because of the expected smaller size of France's harvest."
Drier weather forecast this week in Germany is expected to enable wheat harvesting to gather pace after rain delays.

However, as in France, a lower than expected official forecast has put a question mark over the harvest.
Germany's 2020 wheat crop could fall about 12% to 20.23 million tonnes, the statistics office said on Tuesday, noting farmers planted less wheat than previously thought.



Colony collapse toll is highest in four years for U.S. honeybees

Glitches in aid program obscure need for more relief during pandemic, say ag leaders

U.S. farm income may suffer due to coronavirus impact on livestock

After record corn sale to China, Perdue expects ‘a big shipping season this fall’


30 Jul 2020
June 2020 threw a massive surprise, holding up the fiscal year urea off-take that ended at a little over 6 million tons for FY20. This is just a 1 percent year-on-year increase, but it seemed distant last month, and the day was saved by highest ever June urea off-take at 1.16 million tons. There is no specific June reason for the record sales, as the budget was a non-event and there was no anticipation around, signaling any anticipatory buying.

This could just have been a case of farmers engaged with locusts or delayed sowing of the season’s crop. Urea prices in June 2020 at Rs1632 per 50 kg bag are at nearly two-year low, as the government intervened after the GIDC saga. The average urea price for FY20 at Rs1856/bag was 5 percent higher year-on-year.

The price decline hastened in the second half of the fiscal year, and the total spending on urea in FY20 at Rs223 billion – highest since FY15 was 6 percent higher year-on-year. The volumetric increase during the period was 1 percent, whereas the price increase was 5 percent. This is safe to say that in terms of both off-take and spending – FY20 was a good year for the farmers. The past many years have seen urea spending stutter due to abnormal price hikes.

The situation with the phosphate fertilizer was not as rosy, despite a meager 1 percent year-on-year increase in average DAP prices for FY20. The DAP off-take went down 10 percent year-on-year to 1.9 million tons – lowest since FY16. The nitrogen to phosphate (NP) application ratio, which had started to improve in the yesteryears, also notched a 5-year low at 3.03 – a far cry from the ideal ratio of 1.75.

DAP spending in FY20 went down by 7 percent year-on-year, primarily driven by low volume. So, while there may have been 6 million tons of urea sales after a long time – it won’t necessarily translate into improved yields, as the NP ratio indicates. The total urea and DAP spending stayed virtually at last year level of Rs365 billion.

Surely, the famers could have instead spent a few more billions on DAP as various other input costs have either gone down or stayed the same. Diesel has become cheaper, tubewell electricity prices have remained unchanged from last year, crop support prices were decent too. What is holding the farmers back from more balanced application needs more probing.
 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
'Everything is gone.' Flooding in China ruins farmers and risks rising food prices


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By this time of year, the rice growing on Bao Wentao's family farm should have been ready to harvest.

Instead, heavy flooding has engulfed huge swathes of southern China, including more than 36 acres of rice fields that 19-year-old Bao and his father tend to in their village near Poyang Lake.

"The crops have completely failed," Bao told CNN Business in an interview over the social media app WeChat, adding that his family has already lost roughly 200,000 yuan ($28,000) worth of produce. "The rice was nearly ripened and ready to harvest before the flooding. But now everything is gone."

Surging floodwater burst the banks of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi province last month, destroying thousands of acres of farmland in what's known as the "land of fish and rice." The broader Yangtze River basin — which includes Poyang Lake and stretches more than 3,900 miles from Shanghai in the east to the Tibetan border in the west — accounts for 70% of the country's rice production.

For farmers like Bao and his father, the damage has been devastating. Not only did the rainfall ruin crops they were about to collect, but the scale of the flooding has made it impossible to salvage anything from this year.
"The land is still under water," Bao said. "That means we are not going to have any harvest for the entire year."

The flooding that walloped Bao's farm and 13 million more acres of cropland — about the size of West Virginia — is the worst that that China has experienced in years. China's Ministry of Emergency Management pegs the direct economic cost of the disaster at $21 billion in destroyed farmland, roads and other property. Some 55 million people, including farmers like Bao, have been affected.

The disaster is bad news for the world's second-largest economy, which is already in a fragile state because of the coronavirus pandemic. Beijing has so far been able to secure food supplies by importing vast amounts of produce from other countries, and by releasing tens of millions of tons from strategic reserves.

But analysts warn that such measures can only be useful for so long. Tense relationships between China and much of the Western world, and the coronavirus pandemic, may make importing a lot of food trickier in the future. The flooding in China, meanwhile, could soon get worse: Heavy rainfall is expected through much of this month, and Chinese officials have warned that the flooding could creep further north, threatening the country's wheat and corn harvests.
"The flooding is already among the worst since 1998, and could worsen in coming weeks," analysts from Nomura said in a note late last month.

Food security

It's not entirely clear how much of China's food supply may be at risk, since the government hasn't released specifics about the current state of production.

If the flooding is contained by the end of August, agricultural GDP growth could fall by nearly a percentage point in the July-September quarter, according to analysts at Nomura — equivalent to more than $1.7 billion in lost agricultural output. That amount is based on losses recorded in mid-July in seven southern provinces that were hit particularly hard.

Analysts at the Chinese brokerage firm Shenwan Hongyuan, meanwhile, recently estimated that China could lose 11.2 million tons worth of food compared to last year, given how much cropland was damaged by mid July. That would be equivalent to 5% of the rice that China produces.

The damage might be even worse, though. Nomura's analysis was based on data about flooded crop fields that the Chinese government released in July. Since then, the amount of cropland that has been damaged has roughly doubled, according to China's Ministry of Emergency Response. Damage estimates released by analysts also don't include the potential loss of wheat, corn or other crops, which could be threatened should the flooding spread.

Already, analysts point out that corn costs have been surging. The price of corn in China was 20% higher last month compared to a year ago, according to Chinese data provider SCI — the highest level in five years.

Corn is used as feed for China's pig herds, which are repopulating as the country brings last year's African swine fever outbreak under control. Even before the flooding began, corn supply was getting tighter, mainly because of concern that a pest called the fall armyworm was spreading through China, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which keeps statistics on the world's agricultural production.

Meanwhile, prices for soybeans have also jumped. In the first half of 2020, domestic soybean prices surged about 30% from the end of last year, according to data from China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Analysts from Baocheng Futures, a Chinese futures brokerage firm, attributed the rise mainly to concerns about extreme weather conditions in soybean production areas, and uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations.

It's clear that authorities are troubled. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently surprised farmers in northeastern Jilin province with a televised visit.

"I came here mainly to check out the crops," Xi said in a video posted by state broadcaster CCTV. "There are quite a few disasters this year. I'm concerned about how crops are growing here in the northeast."

Xi has good reason to visit the area. Northeastern China produces more than 40% of the country's soybeans and a third of its corn — both vital to the food supply chain, since they are fed to livestock and poultry. China uses more soybeans than any other country in the world, and it's only behind the United States in corn consumption. And while the region has so far been spared major flooding, that could change should conditions worsen in the coming weeks.

Xi reiterated food security as a top issue for ensuring economic safety during his visit. And Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who is in charge of the nation's agricultural affairs, urged senior local officials last week to shoulder the responsibility for safeguarding food security and ensuring that production does not drop off.

China's response keeps rice price stable

Beijing has responded to the crisis with attempts to stabilize food prices and boost supply — including by tapping into strategic reserves of food.

Tens of millions of tons of rice, corn and soybeans have been released into the market in recent months by the China Grain Reserves Corp and the National Grain Trade Center, the two agencies that manage and sell state reserves of grain.
So far this year, the agencies have released more than 60 million tons of rice, about 50 million tons of corn, and over 760,000 tons of soybeans, already surpassing the volumes released during the whole of 2019.

Thanks to the release of those reserves, prices for rice have remained stable. Last week the average price of a ton of rice nationwide was 4,036 yuan ($580) per ton, roughly what it was a month ago, according to data from SCI.

China is also increasing imports — especially from the United States. Beijing committed to buying billions of dollars worth of American goods as part of a truce in the trade war agreed in January.

In the first six months of the year, China imported nearly 61 million tons of grain, up 21% from a year earlier, according to the most recently available Chinese customs data. Corn imports jumped 18% from a year ago, while purchases of soybeans and wheat also increased. The United States, Brazil, Ukraine and France were among the biggest exporters.

Some analysts, though, caution that China shouldn't rely too much on overseas imports.

The trade relationship between Beijing and Washington, for example, could create uncertainty for China's food supply chain should US authorities cut off or heavily tax those imports, according to analysts from Chinese research firm Tianfeng Securities. The United States exported more than 9 million tons of soybeans, roughly 100,000 tons of wheat, and nearly 65,000 tons of corn to China in the first half of 2020, making it a top trading partner, according to the most recently available Chinese customs data.

The Covid-19 pandemic has also caused some countries to suspend food exports, the Tianfeng Securities analysts added in a recent research note, creating more risks for food security in China.

The analysts suggested a few options for China to increase food production, including to loosen restrictions on the production of genetically modified crops. But they also acknowledged that at least in the short term, the country may have to import as much as it can before its trade relationships can deteriorate.

"China needs to put something away for a rainy day," they said.

As for farmers like Bao, China has set aside some money for flood relief. As of mid-July, some 1.8 billion yuan ($258 million) had been allocated to help relocate people affected by the floods and rebuild ruined houses, among other measures, according to China's Finance Ministry. The local government in Jiangxi province, where Bao lives, has also allocated 280 million yuan ($40 million) for flood relief.

But that's a drop in the bucket compared to the $21 billion worth of economic damage the flooding has already inflicted.
"Yes, the government has subsidies, but it can't really help much," said Bao. His father has already left home to look for other jobs now that there's no hope for another crop season this year. "Spreading it out for each person, there is not much left."
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
By Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog:

Millions Of Acres Of Crops In The Central U.S. Have Been Destroyed By A Series Of Historic Natural Disasters


While the mainstream media focuses on the upcoming election, COVID-19 and the endless protests going on in our major cities, another great tragedy is unfolding all across the middle of the country. A nightmarish drought, horrific flooding along the Mississippi River and a giant “derecho” that just hit the farm belt have combined to make this one of the toughest years for farmers ever. And this comes at a particularly bad time, because the stress that the COVID-19 pandemic has put on food distribution systems has already created periodic shortages of certain items around the nation. We definitely could have used an uneventful growing season this year, and unfortunately we didn’t get it.

On Monday, an absolutely massive “derecho” roared through the Midwest. According to USA Today, the storm had winds of up to 112 miles per hour…

The storm had winds of up to 112 mph near Cedar Rapids, Iowa – as powerful as an inland hurricane – as it tore from eastern Nebraska across Iowa and parts of Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois, including Chicago and its suburbs.
Most hurricanes don’t have winds that high once they finally reach shore, and I have personally never experienced wind speeds of such magnitude.

Needless to say, this very unusual storm caused immense devastation. According to Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, approximately 10 million acres of crops were destroyed in Iowa alone…

Early estimates say the derecho flattened at least one-third of Iowa’s crops – about 10 million acres, according to Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds. In addition, tens of millions of bushels of grain that were stored at co-ops and on farms were damaged or destroyed as bins blew away.
And it rocked Marshalltown, Iowa, where an EF-3 tornado destroyed the town’s business district just two years ago. With winds of 99 mph, Monday’s storm damaged some businesses that had recently recovered, even damaging the scaffolding being used to repair the historic courthouse dome.
I can’t remember a storm ever causing this much damage in the middle of the summer.

If about 10 million acres were flattened just in Iowa, how many more acres did this storm destroy in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois?

Sadly, this one storm is going to completely financially ruin some farmers. For example, Iowa farmer Tim Bardole is facing losses that could potentially exceed one million dollars

Corn that used to stand upright on Bardole’s farm is now laying on its side. Some stalks snapped off, others ripped out of the ground at the roots.
Bardole estimated he’ll be out $200 an acre, which is $500,000 total.
Worst-case scenario, that could go up to $500 per acre. That would equate to $1.25 million.
How would you feel if you lost a million dollars because of one storm?

Further south, many farmers along the southern Mississippi Delta have already had their growing seasons wiped out by historic flooding for the second year in a row

The southern Mississippi Delta is home to some of the most fertile farmland in the United States.
But not a single crop of soybeans, cotton, corn, or rice has been planted at many farms in the region — one of the poorest in the country.
This wasn’t supposed to happen.

The flooding of 2019 was a complete and utter nightmare, and this was the year when the recovery was supposed to begin. But instead, “hundreds of thousands of acres” are currently entirely buried by water…

For the second year in a row, widespread flooding has left hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland underwater, ruining entire harvests. And now, with their fields submerged, farmers are bracing for another year of no income.
Meanwhile, countless other farmers are having their growing seasons ruined by a crippling drought.

I know that many of you are reading this article and are thinking that what I am saying sounds contradictory.

After all, how can there be severe flooding and severe drought at the same time?

I know that this sounds very strange, but it is actually happening. We are witnessing severe flooding right along the Mississippi River, and at the same time historic drought conditions are creating massive problems across much of the western half of the nation.

In fact, we are being told that drought conditions in some areas have already become the worst “in almost a decade”

Drought conditions throughout the country are reaching their worst levels in almost a decade.
This summer, drought has hit large portions of the United States, especially slamming key pasture and ranges for ranchers. But crops are also seeing downward trends in quality thanks to the hot, dry weather.
Things are particularly bad in the Southwest, and this is making life very difficult for many ranchers

The worst-hit section of the country, with the highest levels of drought, are in cattle country: West Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas. That’s led to really damaged, dry topsoil and grazing land, which could force ranchers to invest in other feeding options for livestock. Only 36 percent of the country’s pasture and range land is rated good or excellent; 30 percent is rated poor or very poor, reports FarmFutures.
If you look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, you will see that the drought is the worst in the areas where the original “Dust Bowl” developed back in the 1930s. Those that follow my work regularly know that I have been warning about a return of “the Dust Bowl” for many years, and now it is starting to happen.

2020 seems to be a year when the bad news never ends. First we were hit by the worst public health crisis in 100 years, then the U.S. economy collapsed, then massive riots erupted in our major cities, and now farms are being absolutely devastated all across the United States.

All throughout 2019 I warned that a “perfect storm” was coming, and what we have experienced so far is just the leading edge of that storm.

So I would encourage you to use the relative tranquility of the month of August to get prepared for what is ahead, because the month of September is almost here, and the presidential election is right around the corner.

[Bolded emphasis mine]
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre
Aug 13, 2020
"Crop conditions in Siberia are the worst since 2012. After recent rains, they improved somewhat in Altai, the largest Russian spring #wheat grower. Too late to save the yield potential though. Summer was too hot and dry". We will analyze this soon for our new crop forecast.

NWS Hanford
An Excessive Heat Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills, Sierra Nevada foothills & Kern County Desert from Noon Friday until 9 PM Monday evening. An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures is expected. #CAwx

Naomi Blohm | Aug 13, 2020

Last week I wrote how corn futures had lost their luster due to higher yield forecasts. USDA confirmed that notion in yesterday’s USDA report, pegging corn yield at 181.8 bushels per acre, up from the July estimate of 178.5.

Normally, confirmation of a large crop getting larger would send prices lower, especially in August when seasonal patterns suggest lower prices until month end. The market, however, did not react bearishly -- in fact, prices closed higher, posting bullish reversals on daily charts. This was the most bullish price response from an August USDA report day since 2013.

So what happened?

Demand boost

In a surprise, USDA increased old crop corn demand for exports. Old crop exports are now pegged at 1.795 billion bushels, up from 1.775 in July.

Also unexpected was how old crop corn demand for ethanol was left unchanged at 4.850 billion bushels. Some thought that number could have been revised lower to reflect continued demand loss due to COVID-19. Because of this, old crop ending stocks were actually reduced to 2.228 billion bushels, down from 2.248 billion bushels in July.

With lower old crop ending stocks, that created lower carry-in for the new crop marketing year. This partially offset the higher yield number. Demand for new crop corn was also increased. The feed and residual category has corn demand now marked at 5.925 billion bushels, up from 5.850. Demand for ethanol was left unchanged at 5.2 billion bushels.

And there is optimism for more corn exports! (Read more here). Export demand for new crop corn is now at an impressive 2.225 billion bushels, up from 2.150. New crop ending stocks are projected at 2.756 billion bushels. This is up from 2.648 projected last month.

Normally, trade would jump all over an increase in ending stocks. The reason it didn’t is because trade was figuring the ending stocks number would actually come in closer to 3 billion bushels. Thanks to USDA adjusting demand projections, the market was saved from that 3 billion bushel number, which would have likely sent corn futures to $3 or lower.

Derecho’s impact

Monday’s devastating Derecho storm just made 2020 even more strange. It slayed some corn stalks like a samurai sword and brought immense destruction to what looked like near record corn production. Early reports suggest that 10 million acres of crop in Iowa alone were affected. Some analysts project early corn production loss to be somewhere between 200-400 million bushels.

USDA was quick to remind us that yesterday’s report data was collected prior to the storm. But the market certainly had it factored in, which may be another reason for corn’s upward price move.

The September USDA report will integrate objective yield measurements such as ear and pod counts. NASS did clarify yesterday that a leaning stalk would be counted in the objective yield survey, but a stalk that is broken off would not.

It will likely take months to understand the true production loss from the storm. But let’s say 300 million bushels is lost from production; that would take new crop ending stocks down to 2.456 billion bushels, and keep corn futures above $3 per bu.

Put all these factors together and you get a rare August ‘about face in corn futures.

Glencore plc is a British multinational commodity trading and mining company with headquarters in Baar, Switzerland, and its registered office in Saint Helier, Jersey. The current company was created through a merger of Glencore with Xstrata on 2 May 2013. Wikipedia

12 August, 2020
HAMBURG - A Syrian state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase 200,000 tonnes of soft wheat for bread making sourced from the European Union or Black Sea region, European traders said on Wednesday.

The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender from Syria's General Establishment for Cereal Processing, Storage and Trade (Hoboob) is Sept. 9, traders said.

The agency has also issued a separate tender for 200,000 tonnes of wheat sourced from Russia only which closes on Sept. 14.
Shipment in both tenders is sought 60 days after confirmation the order has been placed, they said.

Prices should be submitted in U.S. dollars only and payment will also be made in U.S. dollars.
Syria continues to have a wheat import requirement as the country's 10-year-old conflict continues, and wheat production remains under local consumption.

Glossary of Terms - Agricultural Marketing Service - USDA
Bushel—A unit of measure containing 2,150.42 cubic inches, 56 pounds of corn, or 60 pounds of wheat or soybeans

General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), Egypt ...

RitaBuyse @ACOMRB · 3h
Australia exports 5.78Mt wheat in 1H20, China biggest customer - Grain Central
https://graincentral.com/markets/export
 
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