Signs of global crop failures or just normal fluctuations

Another way to look at whether there at the moment is a food crisis or a looming food crisis, is to look at the prices of food commodities as they are called. It is the basis agricultural resources, which is what farmers and grain merchants look at. This does not mean that it can not change quickly if an iceage descends or a grand solar minimum sets in or other major earth changes were to happen. A massive volcanic eruption would also fit that category as it would dim the sun, which is the main driver of agricultural crops.

Below are some screenshots of the world market prices of some basic crops over the last 5 years and it will give us something to compare with as we move forward.

Wheat
Wheat 5 year chart.gif

Soybeans:
Soybeans 5 year chart.gif

Rice 5 year chart.gifCorn 5 year chart.gif
 
Farming Impacts After Spring Flooding (Nebraska)
Sep 16, 2019
How do you rebuild after a flood ruins your home and farm? Robert Ray visited Hooper, NB. to speak with those whose livelihood has been threatened.

#harvest19




Agri Stainless on Twitter
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Market Journal | September 20, 2019 (Full Episode) | Husker Harvest Days Special
Sep 20, 2019 / 27:49 Nebraska
(01:50) Prepping Crops for Harvest
(06:18) Fall Soil Fertility
(13:08) Grain Bin Safety
(17:36) Al’s Forecast
(21:29) Benefits of Cornstalk Grazing
Next Week… University of Missouri Ag Economist Dr. Scott Brown joins us for a look at the livestock markets and the latest Cattle on Feed report. Plus, DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson discusses weather conditions for harvest.



 
Christian from the Ice Age farmer made a recent video in which he made several mistakes that to me amounts to fearporn or comes close to it. The video is in this article:

I made a few comments to that article which I repost here:

Yes, global output of wheat is going to be drop this year but only compared to previous estimates. It will now only be 765 MT and thus takes second place of the year with the most wheat produced.

I wonder why the headlines from the USDA is trying to make it sound like a disaster year, when in total it was a very good year for wheat.

Is it only because of the Americentric world view that when things goes bad for North America, then it is projected as going bad everywhere? Or is to fuel the ideology of climate change?

Regarding the socalled disaster of the lack of planting of winter wheat. The farmers always have the option of planting spring wheat which accounts for 10 times more wheat in the US than winter wheat.

Regarding the drop in wheat production that Christian from the ice age farmer links to then that article has a table over wheat production for the world and the previous years and it shows that US wheat production this year is still up compared to the last two year. Why does Christian not mention that or does it not fit the type of alarmism that he promotes? See the article here: [Link]

UK wheat harvest: Christian pulls an article from the 19th of August about harvesting problems with the wheat harvest and then predicts dire consequences to follow from it. Now 6 weeks has passed and the wheat harvest in the UK is finished. It was the best wheat harvest since 2015 with 16,19 MT and the 5th harvest since at least 1996. Here is a link to the final harvest result [Link] and here is link to the wheat production in various countries going back to 1996: International wheat production statistics - Wikipedia

UK WHEAT CROP SEEN AT FOUR-YEAR HIGH - AHDB
9/27/2019

LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Britain's wheat harvest is now complete with the crop estimated to have been the largest since 2015, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board said on Friday.
The AHDB estimated the wheat crop would rise to 16.19 million tonnes, up from the prior season's 13.56 million.
Barley production was seen at 7.53 million tonnes, up from 6.51 million.
"The large wheat and barley crops will undoubtedly push us into a net-export trade position for both. The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is concerning when we face a large exportable surplus," AHDB analyst Alice Bailey said in a report on Friday.
Rapeseed production was, however, estimated to have fallen to 1.77 million tonnes, the smallest crop since 2004 and down from the prior season's 2.01 million, AHDB said. (Reporting by Nigel Hunt; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)


‌Both the Ice Age Farmer and Adapt2030 don't believe in Global warming which is refreshing but sometimes it appears as if they are likewise into fear porn by predicting dead certain doom from Global cooling and famine. This alarmism can lead to hysteria, which limit the thinking faculties and thus black and white thinking. Why not just record the things objectively without the doom element, while suggesting to stock up on foods and basic things? The effect of alarmism and fear porn is that people turn off similarly to the effect of the boy who cried wolf too many times when no wolf was around. It will not make people more prepared but less I think.
 
Putin said at the Sochi meeting that China will be ready to buy as much soya and corn that Russia can produce but that Russia is not ready yet. That sounds like they are well aware of the market there and have in mind to up production there too. This is likely to happen without a fall in the other agricultural produces and a part of Russia's long term strategy of becoming an agricultural super power. This happen as Russia had a record harvest of Soya beans, though it is still very small on the world scale. Part of the gearing up involves Chinese farmers going to Russia to grow soya beans:

Chinese Farmers Are Growing Soybeans in Russia Then Selling Them Back in China
By Tanner Brown / Aug 06, 2019 11:07 AM / Business & Tech

Photo: IC Photo

Photo: IC Photo
The tiny little soybean has played an outsized role during the trade war. Before tensions, China had imported millions of tons of the crop from the U.S., a number that dropped dramatically as the countries began imposing tariffs on each other’s imports.
But China still needs soybeans — it is the world’s largest importer of the product, after all.
The solution?
Chinese farmers are now going to Russia to grow soybeans and then selling them back in China.
The full story involves China-Russia negotiations, Russian land prices, and the complexity of bringing the necessary equipment from China to Russia.
Russia-China strategic relationship also involves agriculture and how to be food independent. Long term thinking is a very good idea, and not least about how to be food independent and feeding people in the times to come!
 
Market Journal | October 04, 2019 (Full Episode)
Oct 4, 2019 / 27:57
(00:49) Solar Radiation & Crop Yields – For much of the state, solar radiation was below normal in late summer. Nebraska Extension Ag Climatologist Al Dutcher explains what parts of the state were most affected, and how crop yields may suffer. •For more information on a recent article Al wrote, visit https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2019/reduce....
04:57) Grain Bin Preparations – Nebraska Extension Educator Dr. Ron Seymour provides some ways you can get your grain bins ready for harvest and ensure insects don’t hurt your grain quality. •For more, visit https://www.ncipmc.org.
(07:15) Markets with Doug Simon – Doug Simon of Tredas joins the show to provide an update on harvest. Doug also analyzes USDA’s recent Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and explains what the numbers mean for basis and carryout.
(14:34) Al’s Forecast – October is off to a soggy start. Al Dutcher returns to let us know what’s next for our forecast.
(18:22) Soybean Harvest Recommendations – Nebraska Extension Educator Randy Pryor goes over the optimum moisture content for soybeans at harvest. Randy also breaks down why having more moisture may be the better selling strategy than having too little. •For more information on making the most of your soybean harvest, visit https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2017/plan-h... and https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2017/tips-h....
(21:15) Considerations for Alfalfa – Dr. Bruce Anderson, Nebraska Extension Forage Specialist, offers options for alfalfa producers including how weather conditions could change harvest plans and when livestock can graze it for the most benefit.

Next Week… You’ll learn some ways to combat compaction during harvest, Elaine Kub stops by to break down the markets and our experts will get you caught up on some important farm policy changes.

Citing trade uncertainties and a slumping ag economy, Deere & Co. said Tuesday it will layoff about 160 workers at production facilities in the Quad Cities.

The farm and construction equipment manufacturer said it would place about 50 employees at John Deere Harvester Works in East Moline, Illinois, on indefinite layoff beginning Oct 28.

Another 113 production employees at John Deere Davenport Works learned they would also be laid off indefinitely, effective Nov. 18.

The company, which is headquartered in Moline, Illinois, lowered its full-year sales and income expectations for 2019, due to decreased customer demand.

Deere shrank its income forecast to $3.2 billion in August from $3.6 billion in February. Its anticipated sales growth fell from 7% to 4%.

“Concerns about export-market access, near-term demand for commodities such as soybeans, and overall crop conditions, have caused many farmers to postpone major equipment purchases," CEO Sam Allen said in the company's third-quarter earnings report, released in August.

► More: Like Iowa farmers, John Deere tries to power through ag downturn

With agriculture and turf equipment sales down 6%, Deere's third-quarter net income fell 1% to $899 million.

"Despite uncertainties of current market conditions, we remain confident in our business strategy and long-term future," said Deere spokesman Ken Golden.

Construction and forestry equipment sales were $3 billion, up 1% in the third quarter.

Golden said no other Deere location was included in Wednesday's announcements.


 







October 10, 2019 Video / 4:50
In 2019, many Ontario soybean fields showed signs of severe manganese deficiency.

Many of the problem areas were a direct result of growing conditions that featured both soil temperature and moisture extremes, says AGRIS Co-operative agronomist Dale Cowan, who notes that many soils in southwestern Ontario tend to be naturally low in manganese. Any time the growing season brings additional stresses, it tends to accentuate the problem, he adds.

On this episode of RealAgriculture’s Soybean School, Cowan explains why manganese is often unavailable in the soil and offers tips on how growers can identify plants and fields suffering from the micronutrient deficiency. In soybeans, symptoms always occur in new growth. These include distinctive green veins with the rest of the leaf blade turning yellow or a pale green.

In extreme cases, growers can see a significant yield impact. Field research indicates manganese deficiency can deliver a five to 10 bu/ac yield hit. Cowan has seen test plots where yield loss reached 26 bu/ac.

Foliar feeding of manganese is the best management option in-season. In the video, Cowan notes that two or more applications may be required. He also discusses application rates for different foliar products. (Story continues after the video.)


For long-term management solutions, Cowan says it’s important to pay attention to soil tests. Many areas of southwestern Ontario typically see lower soil pH levels, which contribute to manganese deficiency. He notes it’s important for growers to maintain optimum pH levels, but they must be careful not to “over lime” because when pH levels are too high manganese availability is lower, too.



Source: NASA Spinoff Sep 30, 2019 / 9-11 Minute read Snip:
Automated software that GDA Corporation started with NASA funding pulls images from various satellites, identifies staple crops all over the world, and determines their health and stages of growth. A wealth of information can be gathered from this data, including total global crop yield forecasts.

It started as an algorithm to detect clouds in satellite imagery, but now the software is being used for everything from increasing food security in the developing world to guiding futures trading on Wall Street.

Satellites like the Landsat series don’t just take pictures of Earth—they’re used to monitor forest and crop health, ice cap and glacier coverage, surface moisture, and a host of other surface conditions. Crucially, however, pixels capturing clouds and their shadows throw off all this data, so those pixels have to be discarded before any calculations are made.

“On a global scale, this is labor intensive, so you’ve got to be able to do it in some sort of automated fashion,” says Tom Stanley, technology transition lead at Stennis Space Center.

Initial plans for the Landsat 8 Earth-imaging satellite didn’t include a thermal sensor, which was how its predecessors had detected cloud cover. Instead, engineers at Stennis put out a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) solicitation for software capable of detecting cloud cover, which Stephanie Hulina, then a contractor at Goddard Space Flight Center, cofounded a company to win.

Stanley, who was the contracting officer’s technical representative for the SBIR work at Stennis, notes that Hulina was doing remote sensing and global information systems work at the time. “She was already highly knowledgeable about the Earth Science Program and looking for her niche so she could start her own business.”

Thus, Geospatial Data Analysis (GDA) Corporation of State College, Pennsylvania, was born.

Technology Transfer

Landsat 8 ultimately incorporated a thermal imager and didn’t require the software, but by then Hulina and her company had long moved beyond cloud detection and into broader territory. “A lot of what we were doing for cloud detection was really feature detection, so we just applied it to crops,” she says.

Further SBIR contracts with Stennis in 2004 and 2005 focused on analyzing satellite images in visible and infrared spectra to identify surface features such as crop coverage and health, as well as soil conditions, forest fires, and gypsy moth outbreaks.

20190404-field-spinoff2.jpg

This map shows the correlations between GDA Corporation’s crop yield forecasts and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecasts at the county level between 2005 and 2017 in the American Midwest, with deeper greens indicating higher correlation and reds showing less correlation. Areas with more complete historical data generate more consistent and accurate forecasts. Image credit: GDA Corporation

Further SBIR contracts with Stennis in 2004 and 2005 focused on analyzing satellite images in visible and infrared spectra to identify surface features such as crop coverage and health, as well as soil conditions, forest fires, and gypsy moth outbreaks.

“This definitely fits in with the goal of taking NASA science and capabilities and applying those to areas of public need,” Stanley says, noting that the Space Agency has a longstanding interest in monitoring and forecasting conditions on Earth, such as food productivity, climate change, and the impacts of droughts and disasters. “Certainly, we want to know what the overall agricultural productivity is. And the whole Earth Science Program is focused on Earth dynamics for purposes like ecological forecasting and disaster management.”

Hulina says the SBIR funding from Stennis was crucial in building the company. “It gave us the opportunity to really research and develop what we call scientific-quality algorithms without the pressures of the commercial marketplace.” Clouds are just one type of interference that creates noise in the satellite data, and the company had to develop algorithms not just to identify crop types and health but to correct for factors like topographical effects on lighting or the differences in angles between the center of an image and the edges.

GDA also used the opportunity to automate its systems, which regularly pull, correct, and analyze data from several Earth-imaging instruments, and it built a 200-terabyte cloud to also allow mining of historical and most current crop statistics from various agricultural monitoring entities to answer specific queries with tables, charts, maps, and other products.

“As far as we know, this is the only operational repository of global agricultural statistics and crop-relevant data,” says Dmitry Varlyguin, GDA’s vice president and chief scientist. “The SBIRs gave us time to develop all this and have a long-term plan.”
Continued With Infrared satellite imagery and Text
 
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Market Journal | October 18, 2019 (Full Episode)
Oct 18, 2019 / 27:58
(00:50) Grain Storage and Marketing – Oklahoma State University Grain Storage Engineer Carol Jones discusses the role grain storage plays in marketing your crops and why this year’s extra moisture could mean you’ll need to take a different approach. •For more information on grain bin storage and Carol’s research, visit https://bae.okstate.edu/faculty-sites....
(04:46) Ag Budget Calculator –Glennis McClure, Extension Educator for Farm and Ranch Management Analytics, shares news on the ag budget calculator and how it can help producers in determining their cost of production for the next growing season.
(06:14) Windrow Grazing – Aaron Berger, Extension Beef Specialist, explains the benefits of windrow grazing and the types of forages that make it most successful. •For a guide on windrow grazing strategies, visit http://extensionpublications.unl.edu/....
(09:48) Cattle Markets with Mike Briggs – Mike Briggs, feedlot manager from Seward, Nebraska, discusses how harvest uncertainty is impacting his management decisions. Mike also talks about the beef industry’s recovery from August’s Tyson plant fire, and what he’s tracking in the live and feeder markets.
(16:18) Al’s Forecast –Temperatures got a bit more comfortable this week. Nebraska Extension Ag Climatologist Al Dutcher has our forecast for the week.
(20:29) Weaning Stress Management – Halden Clark, a veterinarian with the Great Plains Veterinary Education Center, offers some ways to limit stress when weaning calves to keep your animals happier and healthier. Next Week… DTN’s Todd Hultman will catch us up on what’s happening in the grain markets. Plus, with hemp now legal in Nebraska, we’ll introduce you to one of the state’s first growers of the crop.


 
Apparently months worth of bad weather - double the average rainfall - has meant that only 30% of Ireland's potatoes have been harvested, and they're predicting there may be a national shortage. It's also resulted in delays for planting of winter cereals, with only 10-15% now in the fields.

We'll see if that's the case, but, if i remember correctly, the UK & Ireland are predicted some pretty bad weather in the coming weeks. It reminds me of the corn harvest at the beginning and end of this year in the US, it's not just a risk of one thing like late frosts, heavy spring rain or an early winter, all of them are now threatening production.


Article about the potato harvests:

Cloud Precipitation

Relentless rainfall causing "serious" problems with Ireland's potato harvest, may result in national shortage


Rachael O'Connor
Irish Post
Tue, 22 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC



Ireland potato
© (MOHAMED EL-SHAHED/AFP/Getty Images)
Stock photo
ADVERSE WEATHER conditions which have battered Ireland for months has resulted in "serious" problems with the annual potato harvest and could lead to a national shortage, experts have warned.

According to RTÉ, the constant wet weather has resulted in just 30% of the national crop being harvested so far, with fears of big losses if Ireland is not hit with a prolonged dry spell, as wet soil can cause potatoes to rot in the ground.

If the situation is not rectified quickly, farmers could lose profits and there could be a severe shortage of Irish potatoes available to buy across the country.

Rainfall in the northeast of the country, where half the national crop is grown, experienced rainfall double that of the monthly average in August and September, and this has resulted in only a small percentage of the crops being harvested.

Navan-based farmer Thomas McKeown spoke to RTÉ about the worrying impact the rainfall has had on the crops, admitting he has only been able to harvest 10% of his crops so far and that the problem is likely to be widespread across the country.

The wet soil has also prevented the winter crop of barley from being planted, as ploughing and seeding in the marshy ground is near impossible.

Michael Hennessy, Head of Crops Knowledge Transfer, told the broadcaster that during "the ploughing championships [in mid September] there was really fine weather. It started raining after that, and it hasn't stopped since.

That is the very time when people are trying to get potatoes out, maize harvested and all the other crops into the ground. In some counties planting is as low as 5%".

Siobhán Walsh from farming website Agriland also voiced her concerns, and said:

"This is serious, only about 10-15% of the winter cereal average was sewn last week, and it hasn't progressed much further this week, because weather hasn't allowed it.

"Fields are waterlogged and farmers can't get into their fields. If farmers can't get the most profitable crops into the ground, the knock on effect next year is a reduction in income".

 
This video just out reports on the harvest in Krasnodar Krai in Russia. It reports a record harvest and as the video says, it is the 6th year in a row with record harvest. Krasnodar Krai is located in the North Caucasus region in Southern Russia and covers an area of 76000km3, which is close to twice the size of Denmark.

Russia has as previously mentioned focused intensely on their agricultural sector and it appears to bear fruit (no pun intended).

They harvested 14.5 Million tons of grain which is quite substantial, the harvest of grapes was the highest in the last three years. In addition they harvested 300,000 tons of fruit and 800,000 tons of vegetables.

It is an important region in Russia for agriculture as the Russian wiki entry shows:
Agriculture
In the economy of Russia, the region stands out as the most important agricultural region of the country (7 % of the gross output of agriculture of Russia, 1-St place in Russia). Krasnodar region — leader in terms of gross harvest of grain (10% of Russia's total) and sugar beet (17,3 %), one of the leading manufacturers of seeds of sunflower (15 %) and grape wines (37 %)[28].

Krasnodar Krai is also where Sochi is located and where there now is a land bridge to Crimea.
 
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