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Jean-Pierre Chevallier is a French independent financial analyst who is interesting because he really read and decipher documents with a lot of numbers provided by banks and financial establishments. Since some weeks he post articles intituled "Momentum crash". Full articles are paid for but he post an overview.

Here is the last one, first time I see "red alert" in the tile.

Momentum crash: RED ALERT, updated to 22 September 2024​


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The 50 basis point cut in the Fed rate decided by FOMC members on 18 September has had the effect of... speeding up the onset of the momentum crash! Treasury yields are on a downward trend that is undoubtedly leading to a momentum crash; those who manipulate the financial markets will not be able to prevent this from happening in the foreseeable future... After the FOMC members' decision to cut the Fed's base rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday 18 September, the financial markets initially took off again in a very disorderly and irrational fashion.
 
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I thought the economy is already bad and we are in a recession. The PTB hasn’t called it yet due to the Trump factor and them not in full control of the way things are going. They will likely call it just before or after the elections, if Trump happens to win. Fwiw
 
(Translated from Fench)

G7 group warns of threat to financial sector.​

1) Israel has invaded Lebanon and Iran is preparing a ballistic missile retaliation that threatens to explode into a regional war.

2) Longshoremen have gone on strike, shutting down dozens of ports from Texas to Maine, affecting all inbound cargo along the southeast and east coasts. Supply chains will collapse.

3) In the regions affected by Helene, post-storm conditions worsen, giving way to looting, greed and despair.

President Biden said he may ask Congress to return early from its pre-election recess to pass additional funds to deal with the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. (Analysts at AccuWeather have revised their estimate of the total damage and economic cost of Hurricane Helene to $160 billion. The human cost and economic damage are likely to drain federal funds after FEMA already projected a $3 billion shortfall by the end of the year).

To take with a grain of salt because I can't find a first hand source of the text but what is sure is that the PTB is currently meeting in Mirabella Eclano, Italy:

Perhaps it's a draft and not yet published.
 
Russia has interconnected its MIR network (the Russian VISA credit card network) with the Iranian Shetab network, linking 287 million Russian cards with 344 million Iranian debit/credit cards. If you add to that the China UnionPay network, you have the birth of a new VISA,

That mean that the movement of money between these three countries will be greatly facilitated.

 
Since some weeks the chevallier.biz site is becoming more and more alarmist on a "Momentum crash". The April drop date?

Some other articles in the same vein have been posted on the forum by @Ca. I believe.

The ECB lost €10 billion last week and its capital now stands at just €54 billion!​


On 18 March, the ECB's banksters published the Eurosystem's weekly balance sheet, which shows a capital loss of €10 billion on 14 March, compared with its previous balance sheet drawn up on 7 March. This brings its capital down to €54 billion!

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The funny thing is that nobody, absolutely nobody, is talking about it. Not a single article has been devoted to this historic and colossal loss!

Even those who are known as dissidents, i.e. those who have never believed in this coronavirus story and who consider themselves competent to denounce the banksters and other pests of all kinds, are refusing to pass on my articles and to publicise them...

Deposits by non-residents fell by 13 billion euros over the past week, which means that foreigners who had deposited capital in this area are withdrawing it en masse.

This loss of 10 billion euros over the past week is part of a debacle that began on 2 February 2024 (i.e. over more than a full year) and since then the plunge has occurred in two stages, first at the beginning of 2024 and especially since the beginning of 2025, with a further acceleration last week, generating a loss of 66.706 billion euros over this period!

Since the beginning of 2025, the ECB's capital loss is... 37.926 billion euros!

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The ECB has virtually no capital left in relation to its total assets.

In fact, the equivalent of equity capital for a company and for a bank, its capital and reserves heading now corresponds to just... 0.86% of its total assets!

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This ECB only owes its survival to the presence of 872 billion gold which belonged... to the member states of this Eurosystem. The capital gains on the gold are recorded under item 11 of the ECB's liabilities under the heading of revaluation accounts.

These revaluation accounts are skyrocketing, while equity, which was always at a low, is tending towards absolute zero, and even into negative territory if the previous trend continues in the coming weeks...


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For the record, the ECB's assets of €6,275 billion are slowly declining... while its equity capital is virtually zero and the deposits of the region's commercial banks are on a lethal downward trend!

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As a reminder...

What's going to happen in the near future?

First answer: nobody knows, because there is no tangible evidence to support a reliable answer.

The only scenarios that can be put forward are

If the ECB continues to lose €20 billion a week, it will have no equity at the end of March.

No problem, say the ECB's banksters in chorus: a central bank can have negative equity!

There are no limits for these people.

They even go so far as to say that a reversal would allow the ECB to book future losses on the basis of its... future profits!

On a more serious note, there are two possible solutions...

The first would be to delete item 11 (gold revaluation accounts) and incorporate it into a new item 11, replacing the current item 12 to form a single item corresponding to the equity capital of the chart of accounts, including the items capital and reserves and revaluation accounts, as the Banque de France already does.

The problem that would then arise would be that the gold that belonged to the Member States before the adoption of the Eurosystem would then effectively become the property of the ECB's banksters, which is legally and politically unacceptable.

Second solution: the Member States would then be obliged to make up the shortfall in equity capital through contributions, i.e. through new taxes paid by the taxpayers of the Member States.

Moreover, the precise cause of this shortfall in equity is not currently known with any reliability...

 
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Not sure I understand any of that. Which foreigners can withdraw money directly from the European Central Bank? And what are those reserves at the ECB for that are now almost at zero?
 
Not sure I understand any of that. Which foreigners can withdraw money directly from the European Central Bank? And what are those reserves at the ECB for that are now almost at zero?
Good question. I will try to explain but I'm not a specialist at all.

The foreigners refer to line 6 of the document:
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Which translate to: "Euro-denominated liabilities to non-euro area residents".

Who are they? It can be:
- Others central banks like the FED, the Bank of Japan, or the Bank of China. They acquire Euros. They can use the swaps mechanism too.
- Non-Euro commercial banks like JPMorgan or HSBC can deposit Euros too for transactions.
- U.S. hedge funds, Japanese pension fund or others fund can buy bond
- The International Monetary Fund or the World Bank which can hold accounts at the ECB

So if they decide to withdraw all their deposits, the liquidity dismissed.

For your second question, I guess you allude to this:
For the record, the ECB's assets of €6,275 billion are slowly declining... while its equity capital is virtually zero and the deposits of the region's commercial banks are on a lethal downward trend!
Equity capital of the ECB come from the 27 national central banks of the euro-zone. They have put money in the ECB at creation in 1988 and they have increase the amount. However there's a part which is not really paid. This part is callable if needed.

I think the main problem result from the ratio between the money the BCE really have and the money it "lend" (the third graph). But I don't know why it's initial capital is declining. They manage to funnel money somewhere? Too many hairdressing costs?

If we have an economist here, he can perhaps explain.
 

Momentum crash, updated to 21 March 2025​

The trend reversal on the financial markets that began on 15 January continues to gather pace.

Major turbulence has begun to appear on the Treasurys markets. The momentum crash is well under way! *** [Article reserved for Platinum, Gold and Premium subscribers] On 20 March, Treasurys yields plunged once again into the steep downtrend that began on 15 January, with the prospect of a momentum crash looming. However, they had surged the previous day after the decision and statements made by FOMC* members in particular, which unsettled investors who are totally disorientated by the actions of the authorities. In addition, those who manipulate the financial markets, add a layer of complexity, creating situations that are unmanageable for any ...

*The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a body of the US Federal Reserve responsible for monetary policy, including setting short-term interest rates to influence market liquidity, which has a direct impact on the economy and financial markets, including crypto-currencies.​

Momentum crash, actualisation au 21 mars 2025​

21 mars 2025 / 3.2 Actualité, 3.3 USA, 5.2 Politique monétaire, 8.2 Banques, 8.3 Economie

Le retournement de tendance des marchés financiers débuté le 15 janvier continue de s’accentuer. Les grandes turbulences ont commencé à se manifester sur les marchés des Treasurys. Le momentum crash est bien engagé ! *** [Article réservé aux abonnements Platinum, Gold et Premium] Les rendements des Treasurys ont encore plongé ce 20 mars dans leur tendance baissière lourde débutée le 15 janvier avec pour perspective le momentum crash, mais ils avaient bondi la veille après la décision et les déclarations en particulier des membres du FOMC qui ont perturbé les investisseurs qui sont totalement déboussolés par les agissements des autorités. Par ailleurs, ceux qui manipulent les marchés financiers rajoutent une couche de complexité, ce qui génère des situations ingérables pour tout ...

Source:
 

Momentum crash, updated to 27 March 2025​

The trend reversal on the financial markets that began on 15 January continues.

The trend in Treasury yields is the best early warning indicator of the momentum crash that is about to occur! *** [Article reserved for Platinum, Gold and Premium subscribers] The US cycle represented by the 30y-2y spread has therefore resumed its rise since the last FOMC meeting on 19 March and the point of recession is now in sight, between 2 and 2.5 points, but this recession could also occur earlier, starting with a spread of 1.5 points, given that the markets can move more quickly than in the early 2000s...

source
 

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