This is not reflected by the Kp index (magnetic perturbation on Earth), it was low on the 15 and still low for the moment. I wonder why it's not correlated.
Source.
The disturbances of the Kp index might show up today if any.
Active formation of polar coronal holes has begun on the Sun. These structures virtually disappeared from the star in 2021-2022 and have begun to return over the past week. Outwardly, polar holes resemble the ordinary coronal holes that have become familiar in recent months, but they have two significant differences. The first is that, as the name suggests, they always form near the Sun's poles, both north and south. The second, more significant difference is that they have an exceptionally long lifespan. Unlike ordinary holes, which usually last no more than 2-3 months, once a polar hole appears, it can be observed in the same place for several years.
[northern hole]
These plasma flows do not strike the planets, but rather strike upwards (from the north pole) and downwards (from the south pole), [usually] without affecting the Earth.
Modern solar physics links the formation of polar holes to processes of weakening solar activity. This also explains their absence in recent years — the objects were destroyed due to the Sun passing through the peak of its 25th activity cycle in 2023-2024. Accordingly, their appearance indicates an objective decrease in solar activity this year, although globally it remains at a fairly high level, still causing significant ‘inconvenience’ to Earth.
At the moment, judging by the images, a northern coronal hole has formed. A noticeable decrease in radiation brightness is observed near the south pole of the Sun, indicating that these processes have begun there as well. A second hole is expected to appear here within a month. After that, if these structures are not destroyed by a major burst of activity, they will become a familiar part of solar images for the next 6-8 years.
Yesterday, 1 August, GOES X-ray monitors recorded 15 solar flares, compared to 6 events the day before. A significant portion of the flares formed in the new active region 4167, where the energy that appeared with it was burned. The remaining events were scattered more or less evenly across the Sun's disc.
At the moment, flare activity is showing signs of stabilisation. Also, judging by all appearances, the growth of sunspots has stopped. Thus, the surge was limited in nature and was localised within a single day. The series of events had no impact on Earth.
An M2.9 (strong) flare has just been recorded on the Sun. The explosion occurred in active region 4168, which only appeared yesterday in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. The maximum radiation was recorded at 16:57 Moscow time. The last time a larger event was observed on the Sun was on 20 June. At that time, an X1.9-class flare occurred at around 3 a.m. Moscow time.
The geomagnetic consequences are not yet entirely clear. Initial data does not yet show any solar emissions towards Earth. At the same time, the location of the flare is almost exactly on the Sun-Earth line, from where the impact on the planet is most effective. Updated information will be provided later.
The risk of major flares remains at the highest level in the last month. There is a possibility of events of the highest X rating forming during the current day.
On the Sun, in active region 4168, at 07:57 Moscow time, a second M-class flare occurred (strong; preliminary score is M2.1). This surge in solar activity is the strongest in July and August, but it should not be exaggerated. At the moment, the explosions are occurring only in one compact center of the Sun and are limited in strength. There are no signs of a global increase in activity.
Despite the fact that the center of the explosions is directly opposite the Earth, there are currently no signs of the events affecting the planet's magnetic field or the radiation conditions for spacecraft. Objective information about the new event is currently unavailable and will be updated as more information becomes available.
On the Luminosity of the Sun
One of the most common misconceptions about the Sun is that it shines very brightly. Yes, indeed, if you look at the sky, it even hurts to look at it, and that's from a distance of 150 million kilometers. But if you divide the energy the Sun produces in 1 second, 3.86*10^26 W, by its mass, 2*10^30 kg, you will find that the Sun produces only 0.0002 (two ten-thousandths of a watt) per kilogram of its mass!!!
Among scientists, there are many disparaging comparisons emphasizing how small this value is, the most insulting in my opinion being this one: a pile of rotting autumn leaves gathered with a rake in your garden will produce more energy per kilogram than the Sun.
The only reason the Sun, with such a negligible rate of energy release, achieves its enormous luminosity is, of course, its unimaginably huge mass. This, however, applies to the vast majority of stars.
There is no need to be upset about this. It is precisely because of the very weak energy release that stars like the Sun can live for 10 billion years, providing similar lifespans to the planets around them. Giant stars with luminosities hundreds of thousands of times greater than the Sun burn out like matches in just a few tens of millions of years. Thus, the Sun does not shine little, but carefully
y the way, for this very reason, the nuclear fusion reactions occurring in stars are not suitable for terrestrial fusion reactors. They are too weak for that. The image of an "artificial Sun," often used for such reactors, is nothing more than a beautiful expression. In reality, other types of reactions are being sought for them, capable of releasing energy more efficiently.
