Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 18

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.6 event observed at 20:41 UTC on September 17 from AR3098. It generated minor R1 radio blackout over Pacífic Ocean.

AR3098 released several M flares earlier this week (the category of flare just under X) and has now released what was probably its last flare.

We have been talking about this phenomenon for a few months now. While an active region is on the visible face of the sun its activity remains low, however, as it moves westward its activity increases and starts to generate moderate flares until at the far edge strong M-class flares are produced that are possibly X-class:

DODGING SOLAR STORMS: How long can Earth keep dodging solar storms? Departing sunspot AR3098 unleashed five M-class solar flares as it was going around the edge of the sun this weekend. One of them (M8 on Sept. 16th) was almost an X-flare:​


Because AR3098 was not facing Earth, all of the flares were muted in their effect, and none produced an Earth-directed CME. Add them to the list of dozens of misses since August--all produced by departing sunspots.

The sun is shooting like an Imperial Storm Trooper. Don't get used to it, though. As Solar Cycle 25 unfolds, a stray hit is inevitable. SpaceWeather.com

Now in THIS forum post there was talk of the possibility of a Carrington event for this September 23rd according to a research that is based on science and Koran. Let's give it the benefit of the doubt. The candidate region to generate a severe X class flare (and we are talking about one equal to or greater than X45) would be the AR3089 region which will return in the next few days:

AR3089 nears return​

The region we knew as AR3089 (when it was on our side of the sun) is about two days away from returning to the sun’s Earth-facing side. This region was very active when last seen directly from Earth. And it’s the region that sent a CME blast toward Europe’s Solar Orbiter, shortly before the spacecraft’s early September flyby of Venus (the spacecraft is okay). AR3089 also produced a large flare when it was just about over the sun’s limb – just as we couldn’t see it from Earth anymore – estimated by Solar Orbiter to be an X flare, the strongest category of flare.

sun-far-side-sept17-2022-12-UTC-e1663501375979-768x461.png

This mage – created using helioseismology – is showing us dark patches from magnetic field concentrations (sunspots) on the sun’s far side at 12 UTC on September 17, 2022. We believe that this large patch of sun activity is the sunspot designated AR3089 when it was last seen on the sun’s Earth-facing side. Read more below. Image via SDO and Stanford U. EarthSky.com

Will AR3089 have enough energy to generate a severe X-flare? We will have to wait and see.

There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3100, and AR3102. Active Region 3103 is now a plage without sspots. AR3098 is gone.

AR3100 (S22W60) and AR3102 (S25W02) have both increased in size over the past 24 hours. The total number of sunspots has increased to 76. NOAA forecast is 75% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 20:22 UTC on sep 16

Current Conditions at 15:00 UTC on September 18

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 486.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.87 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +4.1% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 76 (SN 64 Sep 17)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a northern coronal hole.
▪︎New Coronal hole approaching.

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avivalevy3

The Force is Strong With This One

Well, guys, Schumann is back up in Tomsk & there are more earthquakes. So what happened during the blackout of the Schumann? Too much "light?" It got overloaded?

After the slow mail came (a replacement debit card mailed on 20 July 2022 from Oregon, USA, arrived on 28 August 2022 in Akko, Israel). The new card works fine, but the sending bank led me to believe a computer sent it out without tracking so I had no idea if it was on a plane, a ship or a camel on its way across the Atlantic. It did have an "airmail" postmark on it, but six weeks is a bit long for airmail...even from the states to the main post office in a medium sized city.

I am having difficulty lately with electronic banking, starting to wonder if any of this sunspot stuff is affecting the computers? My mail server is in Switzerland, it keeps going offline. I sent some money to myself, from the states to Israel. It arrived a day later, and due presumably to language confusion, it sat here without being deposited to my account, until 1 September 2022, when the Israeli bank acknowledged my instructions, via SMS. After that date, the money disappeared from both accounts. I have a tracking number for it, screenshots, that show it was in Israel 17 days ago, but after that, it's not appearing anywhere. Still miscommunication? Anybody else with this problem/challenge/lesson whatever it is?


Listed here as a 6.9 by EMSC in Taiwan today, had many Twitter posts of damage, including a tall building just falling over.

Comments/thoughts?
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
It says page not available. Is it me?
Thanks
No, you are right. Here is the link

 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 19

Sun activity has dropped to low levels since AR3098 departed the Earth-facing side of the sun. Since 12:00 UTC on September 18th, there have been a series of small C-class flares. A C6.6 flare occurred at 1:02 UT on the eastern limb on September 19th. The largest solar event of the period was a C7.6 flare occurred at 20:41 UTC from AR3102 which is currently the most active flaring region.

SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS ON THE SUN: Yesterday, Sept. 18th, the sun's southern hemisphere convulsed all at once. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded three apparently simultaneous explosions more than a million kilometers apart:
triple_crop_strip_lab2.gif
Coincidence? Maybe not. Twelve summers ago, SDO witnessed an even bigger eruption with a dozen significant shock waves, flares, filament eruptions, and CMEs spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude. Researchers studying the event realized that the blasts were a chain reaction connected by wide-ranging faults ("separatrices") in the sun's global magnetic field. Yesterday's event may have been the same.

A CME left the sun following the triple explosion, but the jury's still out on whether it will hit Earth. SpaceWeather.com​

Flaring has notably increased from over the east limb, where the region formerly known as AR3089 will soon be rotating into view.

According to SDO data AR3089 is expected to emerge from the Sun's eastern limb on September 20th

WHAT IS OVER THE HORIZON? A big sunspot group is approaching from just behind the sun's southeastern limb. We have seen it before. It is AR3089, which was undergrowing a growth spurt as it exited the solar disk in early September. Now it is returning after a two week trip around the farside of the sun, perhaps even bigger than before. SpaceWeather.com

Something wicked this way comes :scared:

There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3100, AR3102, and new region AR3104 located on the southwest (S11W58) This region will have a short appearance over the solar disk. Currently this region is made up of two sunspots that cover an area of 10MH and have a beta magnetic configuration. Finally AR3103 is a plage without spots located on the southwest (S16W50)

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 51. NOAA forecast is 90% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 2013 UTC on September 18th

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC on September 19th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 463.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.61 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.5% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 51 (SN 76 Sep 18)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole could should hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 22-23

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 20

Solar activity has been at low levels. The sun produced 15 C flares and 1 M flare in the past 24 hours. AR3102 continues to be the most active region. This region produced a C5.5 flare at 05:40 UTC on September 20 then at 11:22 UTC a medium-size M1.1 flare. The M1.1 generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa.

There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3100, AR3102, and new region AR3105 (formerly AR3089) AR3104 is now a plage without spots.

AR3105 is here!​

The sun’s rotation has now carried the active region formerly known as AR3089 into view. The region has just turned the corner onto the sun’s southeast limb (edge). So we can see it now! Active regions are given new labels each time they appear on the Earth-facing solar disk. And so we now have the new label AR3105 for this region. During its last visit, the region produced 75 C flares and five M flares. The region’s size and magnetic complexity continue to look quite interesting, although we won’t be able to judge accurately until until the region has rotated fully into view.

LASCO C2 has detected a CME on the east limb (edge). Imagery shows it first visible at 01:36 UTC on September 19 and it is believed to be associated with a C6.5 flare from AR3105. It is not Earth-directed, but any future CMEs could be, once AR3105 is carried by the sun’s rotation to a spot more central on the Earth-facing part of the sun. This region – combined with the large equator-crossing coronal hole located at disk center – could duplicate the show from a couple of weeks ago.

That is, it could provide us with many geomagnetic disturbances and auroral displays on Earth. Will this happen? We will have to wait and see. EarthSky.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 74. NOAA forecast is 90% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 23:26 UTC on September 18

AN EXPLOSION OF AURORAS OVER NORWAY: Last night in Tromsø, Norway, there was an explosion of auroras so intense "it made my guests scream and laugh at the same time," says aurora tour guide Markus Varik. "We had no idea the night would turn out like this!" The northern autumnal equinox is only 3 days away and, as all Arctic sky watchers know, auroras love equinoxes.

Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During the weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field. Even a slight gust of solar wind can slip through to spark a light show--no geomagnetic storm required. SpaceWeather.com
explosion_strip.jpg


Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC on September 20th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 493.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 8.51 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.2% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 74 (SN 51 Sep 19)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole could should hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 22-23

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 21

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3102 produced six C-class flares yesterday and one M-class (see previous post) The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 from new AR3107 it occurred at 07:02 UTC on September 21 it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean.

There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3100, AR3102, AR3105, and new regions AR3106, AR3107 and AR3108

AR3105 (S16E45) was thought to be one huge region, but new observations have determined that it is actually three regions. The new regions are numbered AR3106 (S12E38) and AR3107 (S24E67)
chrome_screenshot_1663765908932-png.64271


AR3105 retains its beta magnetic configuration with an area of 230MH while AR3106 was confirmed to have an alpha magnetic configuration in an area of 10MH. Pending updated data from AR107 for the moment this region has an area of 120MH and a beta magnetic configuration.These sunspots will soon be a threat of Earth-directed flares. Mainly AR3105 with a 35% chance of eruption for C-class flares, 5% for M-class and 1% for X-class flares while for AR3107 the chances for C-class are 10% and 1% for M and X-class.

So unless something extraordinary happens there might not be a Carrington event this week.

AR3108 is a tiny region located on the southeast (S13E23) and poses no threat of large eruptions. AR310O will be leaving the solar disk soon

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 70. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ANALEMMA: If you took a picture of the sun at the same time each day, would it remain in the same position? The answer is no, and the figure-8 shape traced out by the sun over the course of a year is called an analemma. Ian Griffin photographed this one from Portobello, New Zealand:
Ian-Griffin-Analemma_1663705648_strip.jpg
The upper and lower tips of the "8" represent the solstices--the longest and shortest days of the year. Today the New Zealand sun is near the middle--a sign that Southern spring is approaching on Sept. 23rd.

Other planets have analemmas, too. Not all are figure-8s, however. The shape depends on the tilt of the planet's spin axis and the eccentricity of its orbit around the sun. Martian analemmas resemble a teardrop, while Jupiter's looks like a jelly-bean:
alien_analemma_strip.jpg
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▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 22:50 UTC on September 19 Expected quiet to active on September 22 and a possible G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm on September 23 all due to high-speed solar wind from trans-equatorial coronal hole.

Current Conditions at 14:40 UTC on September 20th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 493.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.57 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 07:02 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 70 (SN 74 Sep 20)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole could should hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 22-23

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 22

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest eventoftheperiod was a C6.71 flare, occurred at 23:20 UTC on September 21 from AR3107 that is already participating in the action.

Sun diving comet

Sun-observing spacecraft caught a sun-diving comet late yesterday. The doomed comet was likely a Kreutz sungrazer, believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago. A swarm of fragments of this broken comet orbits closely to the sun. It’s thought that – about once a day – a tiny comet fragment, some only a few meters across, dives into the sun and disintegrates. But occasionally a bigger one dives sunward, and one of our spacecraft catches it EarthSky.com

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3102, AR3105, AR3107, AR3108 and new AR3109

AR3109 is a 3 sunspot region located in the northwest (N10W06) with an area of 10MH and a beta magnetic configuration. So far it has generated C-class flares, the largest C1.7 AR3109 has very low probabilities of producing M-class (1%) and X-class (1%) flares. AR3100 is gone from the solar disk and AR3103 (S16W92) and AR3106 (S12E24) are now plages without spots.

The total number of sunspots remains at 70. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 0637 UTC on September 21

CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS: NOAA forecasters say that a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Sept. 23rd when a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude auroras are possible when the windy stream arrives. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:20 UTC on September 22th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 397.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.05 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.9% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 11:34 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 70 (SN 70 Sep 21)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 23

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There were more than 23 C-class flares in the past day. The largest event of the period was a C7.9 flare, occurred at 11:34 UTC on September 22 from AR3105

Possible CME heading towards Earth
The September 22 PARTIAL HALO CME may have originated in the hemisphere of the Sun on the Earth-facing side. Extreme ultraviolet observations show a gradual change in the solar corona parallel to the eruption of the CME (note the blue circle in the movie).

A solar wind model calculation is being performed for the September 22 partial halo CME, which is assumed to have originated in this hemisphere of the Sun. We will keep an eye on the solar wind data to see if the CME is detected. Translated with Deepl

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3102, AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, and AR3109 A new sunspot is emerging on the northeast.
hmi200.gif

The total number of sunspots increased to 99. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 21:08 UTC on September 22 Activity is expected to rise to unsettled, due to high speed solar wind from a coronal hole.

CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: NOAA forecasters say that a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Sept. 23rd when a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude auroras are possible when the windy stream arrives. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:20 UTC on September 23th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 403.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.89 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 11:33 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 99 (SN 70 Sep 21)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3102, AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, and AR3109 A new sunspot is emerging on the northeast.

New sunspot on the northeast is now AR3110 The active region made its debut with a long-lasting M1.7 eruption that reached its peak at 18:10 UTC on September 23. This flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacífic Ocean


MAGNETIC FILAMENT ERUPTION: Today (Sept 23rd around 13:30 UT), a large filament of magnetism near the sun's southwestern limb became unstable and erupted. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:
filament_strip_opt.gif
Shortly after the explosion, the US Air Force reported a Type II solar radio burst, a natural form of radio emission produced by shock waves moving through the sun's atmosphere. Characteristics of the burst suggest that a CME was being hurled into space at a speed of 820 km/s (1.8 million mph).

Will it hit Earth? Probably not. The explosion occured near the edge of the Earth strike zone. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs are required for confirmation.
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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 24

With the M1.7 flare and the eruption of the magnetic filament, solar activity rose to moderate levels in the past 24 hours. After the M1.7 flare, 10 C-class flares were recorded. Regions 3107 and 3110 are the most active.

THE SUN SHOOTS LIKE AN IMPERIAL STORM TROOPER: Shoot, shoot. Miss. Yesterday, a pair of bright CMEs left the sun. Both are off target. The CME on the right is debris from a magnetic filament, which erupted near the sun's southwestern limb on Sept. 23rd (1330 UT). The CME on the left came from new sunspot AR3110. An M1-class solar flare hurled it into space (1810 UT). The bright light at 3 o'clock is Venus. None of these things will hit our planet.SpaceWeather.com
two_cmes_strip.gif

But it's not over yet. A large prominence on the southeast limb is getting ready to erupt

There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3102, AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, AR3109 and AR3110
hmi200.gif

AR3110 is a group of sunspots located in the northeast (N14E59) with a beta magnetic configuration and an area of 140MH has the energy to produce C-class and M-class flares. AR3110 has so far produced 5 C-class, the largest being C5.7 and M1.7.

The total number of sunspots increased to 111. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478.9 km/s at 20:37 UTC on September 23 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 05:59 UTC on September 24.

CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS: NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 24th when a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com


Current Conditions at 14:20 UTC on September 24th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 481.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.99 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 13:22 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 111 (SN 99 Sep 23)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 25

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest flares were a C7.2 from AR3107 at 16:07 UTC and a C7.2 from AR3110 at 17:19 UTC on September 24. As predicted by NOAA most of the solar flares only reached the C-class level, there were 20 observed.

A giant prominence erupted off the southeast limb (edge) of the sun’s disk

The prominence on the southeast (lower left) edge of the Sun erupted on September 24 it was a coronal mass ejection (CME), as captured by SOHO/LASCO. It erupted in a southeasterly direction and It is not directed toward the Earth. Translated with Deepl

There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3102, AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, AR3109 and AR3110, AR3102 will leave soon the solar disk AR3107 and AR3110 are the most active so far

The total number of sunspots increased to 128. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 14:07 UTC on September 24

Two large coronal holes have appeared on the sun, one on the south pole and one at the east limb (edge). The one at the south pole will probably not have much impact on Earth. The other one (if it persists) will eventually rotate to a position on the west where its high-speed solar wind can impact Earth, possibly creating auroral displays. EarthSky.com

Current Conditions at 15:00 UTC on September 25th

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 327.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 2.01 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.8% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 07:52 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 128 (SN 111 Sep 24)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 26

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. As predicted by NOAA, 90% of the flares were C-class, 13 of which have been recorded so far. AR3107 and AR3110 produced most of the six observed C flares. The largest flare was a C6 from AR3110 at 07:06 UTC on September 25.

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, AR3109 and AR3110, AR3102 is gone and about to lose AR3109

AR3107 (S25E01) has changed in magnetic complexity. Today it has a beta-gamma magnetic field with the energy to generate class C and M flares. The current area of this region is 210MH after reaching 240MH in the past few days. At 9:11 UTC on September 26 this region generated a C4.7.

A new region is appearing in the northeastern limb
NewRegion-SEptember25to262022-SDO304-171.gif
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The total number of sunspots decreased to 96. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

hmi200 (1).gif

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 21:12 UTC on September 24

Current Conditions at 13:50 UTC on September 26

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 295.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 16.08 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 09:37 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 96 (SN 128 Sep 24)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole should graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct 1-2
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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 27

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C4.8 from AR3107 at 6:40 UTC on September 27. Seven C-class flares were recorded in the last 24 hours.

The solar full H-alfa line observation on September 27 revealed an interesting behavior of the prominence (circled in blue). It was first seen to move upward and was expected to erupt, but it disappeared as if it collapsed without erupting. [Taken by the Solar Flare Telescope at Mitaka]. (T.Deepl)

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3108, AR3109 and AR3110

The total number of sunspots increased to 120. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 96% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels ??? for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 01:13 UTC, then Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) began at 01:31 UTC. At 02:13 the planetary index reached Kp=6 and began a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm.

Unexpected geomagnetic storm.​

There was an unexpected G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm last night. The storm threshold was reached at 02:13 UTC on September 27, 2022. Social media was buzzing about auroras visible at latitudes as low as the U.S. states of New York, Wisconsin, and Washington. The storm resulted from the unexpected impact of a CME, probably one of two from September 23. Neither of these CMEs was predicted to hit Earth. The impact was a glancing blow, but enough to disturb our magnetic field, creating the aurora-producing storm. The results from this impact might extend into the rest of today, September 27. EarthSky.com

UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: This was not in the forecast. A CME sideswiped Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 26th (~2200 UT), sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. "Bright gaudy colors danced across the heavens for more than an hour," says Christopher Mathews, who took this picture from his backyard in Hraunborg, Iceland:
.iceland_strip.jpg

Current Conditions at 14:50 UTC on September 27

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 570.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.74 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4.8 at 06:40 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 120 (SN 96 Sep 25)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole should graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct 1-2
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