Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 28

Solar activity continues at low levels with 14 observed C class flares. The largest event of the period was a C5 flare, occurred at 19:50 UTC on September 27 from AR3105, the most active region.

There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3110, and new region AR3111

AR3111 is a sunspot located on the northeast (N27E62) with an area of 100MH and a alfa magnetic configuration. It does not represent a threat of large eruptions.

The total number of sunspots decreased to 110. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 09:23 UTC on September 28
MORE AURORAS. After yesterday’s unexpected G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm, conditions for G1 (minor) and the chance for more aurora continues. Spectacular aurora observations continue from the northern US, Canada, and northern Europe. EarthSky.com
Solar wind flowing from this double equatorial coronal hole should graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct 1-2.

Current Conditions at 11:30 UTC on September 28

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 540.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.55 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.1% Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 07:53 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 110 (SN 120 Sep 27)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 29

Solar activity continues at low levels with 11 observed C class flares. The largest event of the period was a C5.6 flare, occurred at 05:30 UTC on September 29 from a region that is not yet numbered on the northeastern limb. As this report is being written, the same region has produced a C5.8 flare. This not yet numbered region possibly is the former AR3098.
A bright coronal loop became visible on the northeast (upper left) edge of the Sun on September 29. There appeared to be an active region beyond the rim, which produced a C5.5 flare at 5:30 UT (14:30 (JST) and a C5.7 small flare at 12:01 UT (21:01 JST) on the same day (T.Deepl)

There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3110, and AR3111

The total number of sunspots decreased to 72. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607.1 km/s at 00:22 UTC on September 28

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2 CLASS): NOAA forecasters say that G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Oct. 1st in response to a double blow: (1) A solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field; it is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. (2) A CME will pass very close to Earth, potentially grazing our planet; it left the sun on Sept. 28th. This is what happened during the last G2-storm. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC on September 29

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 533.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.16 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 12:01 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 72 (SN 110 Sep 28)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEP 30

Solar activity continues at moderate levels with 11 observed C class flares. The largest event of the period was a M1.0 flare, occurred at 04:00 UTC on September 30 from a region that is not yet numbered on the northeastern limb. This flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Southeast Asia. Most experts think this region is the one formerly called AR3098.


SOMETHING FLARE-Y THIS WAY COMES: A large and active sunspot group is about to rotate over the sun's northeastern limb. We can see it coming from the turmoil visible above the horizon:
limbactivity_strip.gif
It has already produced an M1-class solar flare (Sept. 30th at 0400 UT) partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun. The unobstructed flare was probably much stronger.

Helioseismologists have been tracking this sunspot group for more than a week. It is altering the way the whole sun vibrates, creating a dark echo in acoustic maps of the farside of the sun. Soon we will see it with our own eyes. The first dark cores should emerge this weekend. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3110, and AR3111

AR3110, currently located in the northwest, (N16W19) is growing in magnetic complexity and now has a beta-gamma configuration. Its current area is 200MH but its probabilities of generating M or X class flares are very low.

The total number of sunspots decreased to 56. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586.9 km/s at 06:01 UTC on Sep 29. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 05:56 UTC

Current Conditions at 13:00 UTC on September 30

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 533.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.81 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 07:05 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 56 (SN 72 Sep 29)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 01

Solar activity continues at moderate levels with 16 observed C class flares. The largest event of the period was a M2.9 flare, occurred at 16:22 UTC on September 30 from the new region AR3112 (finally numbered!) This flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America.

We have to keep an eye on the flare activity in the active region 3112 on the northeast side of the Sun: after the M1.0 flare at 4:01 UT on September 30, a small C7.8 flare at 14:16 UTC, a M2.9 flare at 16:22 UTC, a M1.4 flare at 17:34 UTC

There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3105, AR3107, AR3110, AR3111, new regions AR3112, AR3113 and newest AR3114

AR3112 located in the northeast (N20E62) is a group of 5 sunspots that has grown rapidly in size and complexity. It currently has an area of 180MH and its magnetic configuration is beta-gamma. This October 01 has produced 5 C-class flares and is the most active region so far. NOAA forecasts give a probability of 80% for C flares, 40% for M flares and 10% for X flares.

AR3113, currently located in the northwest, (N16W28) is a group of 11 sunspots with a area of 100MH and a beta magnetic configuration. NOAA forecasts give a probability of 35% for C flares, 5% for M flares and 1% for X flares.

AR3114 currently located in the southeast (S33E30) is a group of 3 sunspots with a area of 29MH and a beta magnetic configuration. The region has very low probabilities of generating something significant.

The total number of sunspots increased to 74. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 05:44 UTC on Sep 30.

Geomagnetic conditions are quiet (11 UTC on October 1, 2022), but geomagnetic storming is predicted during the day today, due to the effects of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes. And these conditions will extend through October 2-3. There’s an aurora alert for latitudes as low as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state. We’ve been watching two coronal holes on the sun all week, and two new holes have appeared on the solar disk, one central above the sun’s equator, and the other near the sun’s northern pole. EarthSky.com
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg

Current Conditions at 13:30 UTC on October 01

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 439.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.25 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.8% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 08:18 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 74 (SN 56 Sep 30)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 02

Solar activity is at high levels. The largest event was a M8.8 (almost an X-flare) occurred at 02:21 UTC on October 02 from the new region AR3110. The flare generated a Moderate R2 Radio blackout over Southeast Asia and Oceania.

On October 01, 15 solar flares were produced, most of them C-class flares. AR3112 generated 7 of them while AR3110 generated an M5.9 at 20:10 UTC the same day. The M-flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacífic Ocean

There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the disk:, AR3107, AR3110, AR3111, AR3112, AR3113 and AR3114
AR3105 is now a plage and will be gone soon.

The total number of sunspots increased to 100. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485.7 km/s at 12:41 UTC on October 01

No geomagnetic storm has been recorded as of 05:30 UTC. on October 2, which was predicted by NOAA.

Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 02

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 410.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.64 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M8 at 02:21 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 100 (SN 74 Oct 01)

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XPan

The Living Force
X1-FLARE !
2-3 Oct 2022

It appears that an X-Flare just occurred on the sun. Spaceweather.com writes following:

X-FLARE! Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare (Oct. 2nd @ 2025 UT). Ironically, it did not come from big dangerous sunspot AR3112, described below, but rather from AR3110, a smaller and apparently less threatening active region. The flare (image) produced a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean and parts of North America (blackout map), and it may have hurled a CME into space. Stay tuned for updates.

At the same time, all of the sudden while i was keeping an eye on the geomagnetic activity here on earth i noticed that it just spiked in the moment of writing (albeit nothing is to see over the sky of Stockholm which on top is a bit misty. In the extreme north of Swede, in the town of Kiruna the auroras seem lively since 21 UTC or 23 Swedish summer time [2 Oct 2022] (see photo below)

aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg


KIRUNA (Northern Sweden) magnetometer
around midnight towards 3 Oct 2022

You can clearly see both the visual appearance of auroras over the skies of Kiruna, as well the fluctuating, bouncing lines in the chart indicated that something hit earths magnetosphere.

maglinux.jpg
 

mkrnhr

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
I think the AR3112 active region is large enough to be visible in the next day. There are usually two ways to see sunspots without instrumentation; at sunset when the sun is low enough to be looked at with no problem (sometimes, some mist or clouds can help), or by using the a welding glass.
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 03

Solar activity is at high levels. On October 02, AR311O produced six C-class solar flares and a X1.0 the event occurred at 20:25 UTC and generated a strong R3 Radio blackout over Pacífic Ocean and parts of North America.

On the other hand, AR3112 produced two medium flares. The first one a M1.28 occurred at 14:05 UTC. The flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean.

The second a M1.0 occurred at 15:45 UTC The flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America

AR3112 (N20E57) is growing in magnetic complexity and size. Experts say this is a very dangerous sunspot. AR3112 now has an area of 750MH and a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. NOAA forecasts an 85% chance of generating C-class flares, a 55% chance of M-class and a 25% chance of generating X-class solar flares.

introducing_mag_lab_crop_strip.jpg
AR3112 has more than a dozen dark cores scattered across 130,000 km of solar terrain, making it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes.

The emergence of AR3112 already fully formed and unstable could herald two weeks of high solar activity as the sunspot group transits the solar disk, facing Earth the whole time. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the disk:, AR3107, AR3110, AR3111, AR3112, AR3113 and AR3114.

The total number of sunspots remains at 100. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576.1 km/s at 21:30 UTC on October 02. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 22:20 UTC then the geomagnetic storm level G1 (Kp=5) at 22:54 UTC thanks to a high speed solar wind stream from a double equatorial coronal hole.

At the same time, all of the sudden while i was keeping an eye on the geomagnetic activity here on earth i noticed that it just spiked in the moment of writing (albeit nothing is to see over the sky of Stockholm which on top is a bit misty. In the extreme north of Swede, in the town of Kiruna the auroras seem lively since 21 UTC or 23 Swedish summer time [2 Oct 2022] (see photo below)

aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg

Current Conditions at 01:00 UTC on October 03

▪︎Geospace disturbed
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=5 Storm
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 537.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.76 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: X1 at 20:25 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 100 (SN 100 Oct 02)
▪︎We will see the climatic repercussions on the earth due to the geomagnetic storm and the X-flare in the next hours. Attentive to the behavior of hurricanes, storms and volcanoes.

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XPan

The Living Force
KIRUNA (Northern Sweden) magnetometer
around midnight towards 3 Oct 2022

Here is the corresponding auroral movie from Kiruna - where you can see the onset of a strong geomagnetic storm (local KP7 index, equivalent to G3 storm levels over Kiruna) late last evening at 23:00 local time.


_-2022-10-03-at-03.27.14.jpg

And this link will always refer to the very latest camera images as well video from Kiruna.

This particular link also contains "auroral image stripes" from the past 7 days

 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 03 Update

MULTIPLE CMES ARE COMING: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of G2-class geomagnetic storms on Oct. 4th when multiple CMEs might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. Most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into space by sunspot AR3110, which unleashed a series of strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend. During G2-class storms, naked-eye auroras can descend into the United States as low as New York and Idaho

After the X1.0 flare AR3110 produced two medium flares. The first was a M4.2 at 10:11 UTC on October 03 it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa.

The second a M1.5 at 11:11 UTC and it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

AR3112 produced a M2.63 at 02:45 on October 03, it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Southeast Asia

There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the disk:, AR3107, AR3110, AR3111, AR3112, AR3113, AR3114 and new regions AR3115 (S18E10) AR3116 (N31E61) and AR3117 (S11E25)

Preliminary data for new regions:

AR3115 located on the southeast is a group of 7 sunspots with size 40MH and magnetic configuration beta. It has low probability of generate M or X flares

AR3116 located on the northeast is a group of 5 sunspots with size 20MH and magnetic configuration beta. It has low probability of generate M or X flares

AR3117 located on the southeast is a group of 2 sunspots with size 10MH and magnetic configuration beta. It has low probability of generate M or X flares

The total number of sunspots has increased to 102. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic storm G1 has subsided and the magnetic field is stable for the moment. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576.1 km/s at 21:30 UTC on October 02

G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are possible for October 3 and G2 (moderate) for October 4 due to the arrival of coronal mass ejections

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC on October 03

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 521.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.94 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.3% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M4 at 10:11 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 102 (SN 100 Oct 03)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 04

Solar activity has been moderate levels in the past 24h. Fourteen C-class solar flares were recorded and the largest of this type was a C7.6 at 07:23 UTC on October 03 from AR3110. Four M-class flares this day, the largest of this type was an M4.2 at 10:11 also from AR3110, in fact this region was the most active in the past 24h.

The huge AR3112 started the day with an M2.6 (see previous post) and during the rest of the day produced four C-class flares with an M1.7 at 15:30 UTC.

Both regions, AR3110 and AR3112, appear poised to produce something much stronger. AR3112, in particular, should be watched closely, as the active sunspot group continues to rotate into a better Earth-facing position.

There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3110, AR3111, AR3112, AR3113, AR3115, AR3116, AR3117. AR3107 and AR3114 are now plages without spots.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 104 NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The Geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed record reached a peak of 631 km/sec at 12:18 UTC on October 03. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 04 Oct, quiet to minor storm levels on 05 Oct and quiet to active levels on 06 Oct.

Current Conditions at 12:00 UTC on October 04

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 561.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.14 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.3% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M4 at 10:11 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 104 (SN 100 Oct 03)
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Edit. Change in current conditions.
 

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XPan

The Living Force
Here is the corresponding auroral movie from Kiruna - where you can see the onset of a strong geomagnetic storm (local KP7 index, equivalent to G3 storm levels over Kiruna) late last evening at 23:00 local time.


View attachment 64851

And this link will always refer to the very latest camera images as well video from Kiruna.

This particular link also contains "auroral image stripes" from the past 7 days


To my surprise

there were plenty of auroras over Sweden in the evening of 2-3 Oct 2022 - even in South Sweden - despite the fact, that I was not able to see any over Stockholm (I tried several times, with help of the camera which sees more then the naked eye).
Reports with images from all across the country have been sent in - especially from the north, the display was really wild, from dusk to dawn.

Shown below, is a photo from photographer P-M Hedén, who made a beautiful photo of the auroral display just 30 km north of Stockholm. Albeit the image is tagged being taken 3 Oct 2022, at 21.03... which would mean, the evening after the event ?! Also curious, because i didn't see any auroras yesterday evening either.... 🤔 Either I was too late, or when I was at the Högdalen subway train depot yesterday, it's notoriously strong lights everywhere making it very difficult to spot any activities in the sky. Yet, I still often look up as often as I can....

In the publicly open Swedish Facebook group, people did sent in images of Northern Lights from yesterday evening 3 Oct 2022, as well from the evening prior.

P-M-Heden-Boom-Aurora_1664832104.jpg
Taken by P-M Hedén on October 3, 2022 @ Vallentuna Sweden

Boom! Wow, strong, intense and kind of brutal! I hardly got up my gear before it was over. Strong display with many colors, marvelous! And such a strong display as far south as only 30km north of Stockholm Sweden.
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 05

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Six C-class flares were recorded and the largest event of the period was a M1.6 flare at 13:15 UTC on October 04 from AR3110 it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

The M1.6 flare that occurred in the active region 13110 on October 4 was also accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME); the SOHO/LASCO observation captured a CME erupting in a northwest (upper right) direction (white border). It is not heading toward the earth. [Courtesy of SIDC/CACTus]. T Deepl

A 200,000-km long filament of magnetism eruption took place earlier on October 04 in the Sun's southern hemisphere and produced a coronal mass ejection that might be heading for Earth.
southernfilament_crop_strip_opt.gif

It's not Venus, nor is it a glitch in the matrix, maybe we'll never know.

There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3110, AR3111, AR3112, AR3113, AR3115, AR3116, AR3117

The total number of sunspots has increased to 153 NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 95% chance for C flares, 65% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares.

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Behemoth sunspot AR3112 is poised to explode. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-flares and a 30% chance of X-flares today. Any eruptions will be geoeffective as the sunspot is almost directly faciing Earth. SpaceWeather.com

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The Geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed record reached a peak of 605.3 km/sec at 14:44 UTC Active geomagnetic conditions were reached at 19:35 UTC on October 04 due to a Cannibal CME that was supposed to hit Earth on Oct 04. It might have arrived in bits and pieces according to SpaceWeather

aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg


Current Conditions at 06:40 UTC on October 05

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 517.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.67 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 02:07 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 153 (SN 144 Oct 04)
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