Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SUNDIVING COMET AND CME (UPDATED): The sun just swallowed a comet. On Oct. 15th, SOHO coronagraohs caught a Kreutz sungrazer diving into the sun just as a bright CME was leaving.

Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. They get their name from German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail in the 19th century. Kreutz fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate almost every day; SOHO has seen thousands of them. Most, measuring less than a few meters across, are too small to see, but occasionally a bigger fragment like this one attracts attention.

The CME was *not* caused by the comet. It was hurled into space by a magnetic filament eruption in the sun's southern hemisphere (movie) while the comet was still far away. NOAA analysts have modeled the CME and determined that it will not hit Earth.

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

www.spaceweather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581619812962222080

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581616931844820993

Edit. Although SpaceWeather.com suggests that the CME was not a product of the comet's approach, we have seen this same phenomenon on other occasions. A coronal mass ejection occurs with the approach or dive of the comet. Just my opinion.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 17

ALL QUIET: Despite yesterday's rapid growth of a sunspot in the sun's southern hemisphere, solar activity remains low. All of the sunspots on the solar disk have simple magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say the chance of an X-flare today is no more than 1% Spaceweather.com Time Machine

In the past 24h the largest event of the period was a C1.9 from AR3123 (N27W68) at 16:06 UTC on October 16. A total of four flares, three Class C and one Class B were recorded.

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3119, AR3121, AR3122, AR3123, and new region AR3124

AR3124 is a region located in the southwest (S36W42) that groups five sunspots occupying an area of 30 millionths of a hemisphere and a beta magnetic complexity. The probability of this region to produce C flares is 35% while for M it is 5% and for X it is 1%.


The total number of sunspots has increased to 59 (20 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) None of these sunspots poses a threat for strong solar flares. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 45% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 579.5 km/sec at 23:27 UTC on October 16 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 11:55 UTC on October 17. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581872792588673030

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581856337079988224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581317423159906305

Current Conditions at 05:15 UTC on October 17

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 577.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.57 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.5% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 02:25 UTC on Oct17
▪︎Sunspot number: 59 (SN 50 Oct 16)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a minor coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 19-20.

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 18

Solar activity remained at low levels in the past 24 hours. Five C-class flares were recorded. The largest event of the period was a C3 3 from AR3124 (S36W56) at 17:14 on October 17.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582183923983187968

There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3122, AR3123, AR3124, and new region AR3125

AR3125 located in the southeast (S25E01) groups 6 sunspots covering a very small area of just 10MH with a beta magnetic configuration. NOAA estimates give it a 10% probability of generating C-class flares.

AR3124 is a region located in the southwest (S36W42) that groups five sunspots occupying an area of 30 millionths of a hemisphere and a beta magnetic complexity. The probability of this region to produce C flares is 35% while for M it is 5% and for X it is 1%.

AR3124 has grown considerably in the last 24 hours. It currently occupies an area of 110MH and new sunspots have appeared within its region reaching the number of 11. Its magnetic configuration remains in beta and its flare generation probabilities remain the same.

AR3122, AR3123 and AR3124 Soon will leave the solar disk.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 84 (31 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) None of these sunspots poses a threat for strong solar flares. NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 45% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 645.7 km/sec at 04:28 UTC on October 17 due to a stream of solar wind from a minor coronal hole. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp3 around 15:00 UTC on October 17

Aurora Oval


Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 18

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 516.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.78 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 23:33 UTC on Oct 17
▪︎Sunspot number: 84 (SN 59 Oct 17)
▪︎There are no significant holes on the Earthside of the sun

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 19

ALL QUIET: The face of the sun is almost blank despite 4 numbered sunspot groups; they are all relatively small and quiet. As a result, solar activity remains low. NOAA forecasters say the chance of an X-flare today is no more than 1%. SpaceWeather.com

Five solar flares C-class and three B-class were recorded. The largest event of the period was a C1.9 from AR3124 (S34W68) at 14:13 UTC on October 18

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582532787252260864

There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3122, AR3124, and AR3125

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 50 (9 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 35% chance for C flares, 1% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 573.2km/sec at 02:45 UTC on October 18. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp2

Aurora Oval

Surprise!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582497287158517761

Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 18

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 448.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.05 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.8% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 00:35 UTC on Oct 19
▪︎Sunspot number: 50 (SN 84 Oct 18)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 23-24. Credit: SDO/AIA


SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 20

Solar activity is still stable. Five C-class flares and six B-class. The largest event of the period was a C4.2 from new AR3126 (S11E15) at 23:38 UTC on October 19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582905951639654401

There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3122, AR3124, and AR3125 and new region AR3126

AR3126 (S11E15) is a 30MH area that groups 3 sunspots with beta magnetic complexity. So far it is the active region with the highest activity registering 3 C-class and 3 B-class flares; however, according to NOAA information, the probability of producing X-class flares is less than 1%.

The total number of sunspots remains at 50 (10 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 25% chance for C flares, 1% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 475 km/sec at 00:47 UTC on October 19. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp2

Aurora oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582932671902416902

Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on October 20

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 407.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.88 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.8% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 21:45 UTC on Oct 19
▪︎Sunspot number: 50 (SN 50 Oct 19)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 23-24.
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 21

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. SIxteen Solar flares were recorded all of them from departing active region 13122 (N26W78) The largest event of the period was a C5.4 at 03:26 UTC on October 20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583277284533755905

There are currently 2 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126 and new region AR3127

AR3127 (S24E22) located on the southeast is a 30MH area that groups 3 sunspots with alfa (a group of unipolar sunspots) magnetic complexity. According to NOAA information, the probability of producing X-class flares is less than 1%.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 33 (13 of these are grouped into 2 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 25% chance for C flares, 1% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 471.3km/sec at 17:49 UTC on October 19. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp3

Aurora oval


Current Conditions at 05:40 UTC on October 21

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 370.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 8.9 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 01:14 UTC on Oct 21
▪︎Sunspot number: 33 (SN 50 Oct 20)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 23-24.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583074851883212803

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582086615874142209

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25BACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 22

Solar activity has been at very low levels, with most solar flares coming from sunspots not grouped into active regions and only reaching C-class. The largest event of the period was a C2.9 at 07:17 on October 21. The only flare produced by an active region was B7.9 from AR3126 (S11W11) at 00:38.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583633055150792704

VENUS AND THE STREAMERS: Venus is passing by the sun this week as it heads for superior solar conjunction on Oct. 22nd. Today it is arcseconds away from a bright polar streamer:

Streamers are magnetic loops emerging from the surface of the sun. The solar wind stretches them into long narrow structures with pointy tips. There are five streamers in today's coronagraph image. Streamer #1, pointing almost directly toward Venus, has roots near the sun's north pole.

This image tells us something interesting about the solar cycle. During Solar Minimum, streamers emerge primarily from the sun's equator, giving the sun a Saturn-like appearance. At Solar Maximum, however, streamers can pop up anywhere, turning the solar disk into a porcupine of plasma quills. Today's sun looks more like a porcupine, signalling that Solar Max is on its way. SpaceWeather.com ​

There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126 , AR3127 and new region A3128 These two sunspots have simple magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares.

AR3128 (S17W54) located on the southwest is a 20MH area that groups 2 sunspots with alfa (unipolar) magnetic complexity. According to NOAA the probability of producing C-class flares is 5% while for M and X it is 1%.

AR3125 still remains in the solar disk, however, it has lost sunspots. It began its journey with six sunspots and is currently a single small spot with an alpha magnetic field.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 60 (19 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 55% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 418 km/sec at 00:42 UTC on October 20. The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp2

INCOMING SOLAR WIND STREAM: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Oct. 24th when a fast moving stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras early next week. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583615218760187905

Aurora Oval

Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 22

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 367 km/sec
▪︎density: 14.41 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.5% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 03:03 UTC on Oct 22
▪︎Sunspot number: 60 (SN 33 Oct 21)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 23-24.

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 23

Solar activity continues at very low levels and in fact in the last 24 hours the activity came from the far side of the sun in what was the AR3122 region that left the solar disk around October 20. This region generated four C-class and two B-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C6.5 flare at 05:42 UTC on October 22

On the other hand, two sun grazing comets have been seen.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583636460577910784

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583796950293704704

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583981628929413123

There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126 , AR3127, A3128 and new region AR3129
⁰

These two sunspots have simple magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares.

AR3129 located on the southwest (S26W86) is a 30MH area that groups 2 sunspots with beta (bipolar) magnetic complexity. According to NOAA the probability of producing C-class flares is 15% while for M and X it is 1%.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 55 (9 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 35% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 11:00 UTC on October 22 Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) threshold reached at 11:33 UTC. The geomagnetic storm subsided around 22:00 UTC (approximately 11 hours of geomagnetic storm) The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 440 km/sec at 04:10 UTC on October 23 The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp5

CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of G2-class geomagnetic storms today, Oct. 23rd, as Earth moves into a stream of high-speed solar wind. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Earth's magnetosphere is already energized by yesterday's CIR, so a gust of solar wind could easily stimulate more storming. SpaceWeather.com

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 22nd, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. "The colors were absolutely amazing!" says Marianne Bergli, who photographed the display from Kilpisjarvi, Finland:

Aurora oval


● Current Conditions at 06:30 UTC on October 23

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 440 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.3 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.1% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B3 at 03:49 UTC on Oct 23
▪︎Sunspot number: 55 (SN 60 Oct 22)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 23-24.
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

Solar eclipse of October 2022: When, where and how to see it on Oct. 25​

published about 17 hours ago

On Tuesday, Oct. 25, the moon will pass in front of the sun in the last solar eclipse of 2022. Here's everything you need to know.

The Oct. 25 solar eclipse will be a partial solar eclipse and the second eclipse of the sun of 2022. It will be primarily visible from Europe and parts of Africa and Asia, but you'll be able to watch online. Learn all about the last solar eclipse of 2022 by the moon in our guide below.

The exact time of the Oct. 25 solar eclipse does depend on where you're observing from. The eclipse itself begins in the Atlantic Ocean at 08:58:20 Universal Time (GMT), which would be about 4:58 a.m. EDT. It will end at 9:01 a.m. EDT (1301 GMT). The moment of peak eclipse will occur at 7 a.m. EDT (1100:09 GMT),

At its peak, the Oct.25 solar eclipse will block 82% of the sun as the moon and star will not be perfectly aligned with Earth as they are during a total solar eclipse. That means that at its best, only a sliver of the sun should be visible from "the point of central eclipse." This prime viewing spot is at the North Pole, so few if any observers will likely see it.

But for observers across Europe and parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, the sun will appear obscured to varying degrees depending on how close an observer is to the central path of the eclipse. In Russia, for example, about 80% of the sun's disk will be covered by the moon, while 70% will appear blocked from western China. Norway and Finland see eclipses 63% and 62%, respectively.

Solar eclipse of October 2022: When, where and how to see it on Oct. 25

On Tuesday, Oct. 25, the moon will pass in front of the sun in the last solar eclipse of 2022. Here's everything you need to know.

www.space.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579940713080705024

 

[mrtn]

Magnetic observatory in Fredericksburg in Texas gave high values in the last two days. Don't know if that's a malfunction or coming from an artificial or earth-located source. Anybody knows whats up with that?

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 24

We continue with a low solar activity level. Only three C-class flares were recorded. The largest event of the period was a C2.5 from new region AR3130 (S24E10) at 18:22 UTC on October 23.

New images of the sun grazing comets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583900302939676672

Solar tornado on the southwest

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584039568218632192

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126 , AR3127, AR3128, AR3129 and new region AR3130 None poses a threat for strong flares; they all have stable magnetic fields unlikely to explode.

AR3130 located on the southeast (S24E10) is a 30MH area that groups 5 sunspots with beta (bipolar) magnetic complexity. According to NOAA the probability of producing C-class flares is 25% while for M and X it is 1%.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 65 (15 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 35% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 568.4 km/sec at 21:34 UTC on October 23 The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp4

Magnetic observatory in Fredericksburg in Texas gave high values in the last two days. Don't know if that's a malfunction or coming from an artificial or earth-located source. Anybody knows whats up with that?
View attachment 65947

On october 22-23 we had a minor geomagnetic storm G1 (kp=5) IMO it is an error in the graph of Fredericksburg Observatory. These are the official colors adopted by NOAA, there is no purple color.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584096135337349121

Kp<5 Geospace quiet (Although some media such as SpaceWeather consider KP=4 unsettled)
Kp=5 minor geomagnetic storm G1
Kp=6 moderate geomagnetic storm G2
Kp=7 strong geomagnetic storm G3
Kp=8 severe geomagnetic storm G4
Kp=9 extreme geomagnetic storm G5

Aurora oval October 24

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584040316801548288

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584148860083277824

● Current Conditions at 06:00 UTC on October 24

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 557.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.91 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B9 at 01:50 UTC on Oct 24
▪︎Sunspot number: 65 (SN 55 Oct 23)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 25

All quiet. Region 13126 (S24W04) was the most active during the past 24h it generated five B-class flares and three C-class. The largest event of the period was a C4.2 at 08:02 UTC on October 24.

There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126, AR3130 and new region AR3131 None poses a threat for strong flares; they all have stable magnetic fields unlikely to explode.

AR3131 located on the northeast (N23E70) is a 30MH sunspot with alfa (unipolar) magnetic complexity. According to NOAA the probability of producing C-class flares is 10% while for M and X it is 1%.

FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There is a sunspot on the farside of the sun so big it is changing the way the sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps reveal its acoustic echo a few days behind the sun's northeastern limb. The sunspot will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun later this week. SpaceWeather.com

It is very possible that this region is AR3112 , which reached an area of 800MH on October 10. The beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity suggested that it would generate X-class flares, but it only generated M-class flares. The largest of these was M3.9 on October 11 when it was about to leave the solar disk.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 46 (16 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 45% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎ Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 564.9 km/sec at 03:52 UTC on October 24 The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp3

Aurora oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584361580716003328

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 25

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 427.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 2.75 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.0% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B5 at 02:33 UTC on Oct 25
▪︎Sunspot number: 46 (SN 65 Oct 24)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE ON OCT 25TH: The Moon is about to take a bite out of the sun. On Oct. 25th, a partial solar eclipse will be visible from Europe, the Middle East, parts of Asia and Africa: map. Almost all of Europe is in the eclipse zone with the deepest eclipse in the Scandinavian countries:

Maximum eclipse occurs at 11:00 UT in northwest Russia where 86% of the solar disk is covered. There, the chill of the Moon's shadow will be felt on the ground as the sun transforms itself into a slender crescent. WARNING: Even the tiniest sliver of sun left uncovered by the Moon can hurt your eyes. SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 26

All quiet. Solar activity has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C5 flare from new active region 13133 (N26E73) at 19:03 on October 25

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585076048542466048

There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the disk: AR3126, AR3130, AR3131 and new regions AR3132 and AR3133

AR3132 located on the southwest (S09W19) is a group of 3 sunspots with size 10MH a beta magnetic field. According to NOAA this region only harbors energy to produce minor class C flares with a probability of 10%

AR3133 located on the northeast (N26E73) is a group of 3 sunspots With an area of 20MH and a beta magnetic field. NOAA forecasts that this region has a 20% chance of generating C-class flares.


All five have stable magnetic fields that post little threat for strong flares.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 72 (24 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 40% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed record reached a peak of 465 km/sec at 00:00 UTC on October 25 The maximum planetary index Kp in the past 24h was Kp2

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: There is a smiley face on the sun today. Formed by holes in the sun's atmosphere, the cheerful mein is spewing a complex stream of solar wind toward Earth. First contact, with auroras, could occur on Oct. 28th. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on October 26

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 362.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.57 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.7 % Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B8 at 04:16 UTC on Oct 26
▪︎Sunspot number: 72 (SN 46 Oct 25)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Claus]

The sun smiles

 

[dennis]

Interesting study looking for comparisons to the Carrington event. (insert pic of happy face pumkin or the great Campeador?)

Abstract

The Carrington storm in 1859 is considered to be the major geomagnetic disturbance related to solar activity. In a recent paper, Cid et al. (2015) discovered a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba, but at a mid-latitude observatory, leading to a reinterpretation of the 1859 event. Based on those results, this paper performs a deep search for other “Carrington-like” events and analyses interplanetary observations leading to the ground disturbances which emerged from the systematic analysis. The results of this study based on two Carrington-like events (1) reinforce the awareness about the possibility of missing hazardous space weather events as the large H-spike recorded at Colaba by using global geomagnetic indices, (2) argue against the role of the ring current as the major current involved in Carrington-like events, leaving field-aligned currents (FACs) as the main current involved and (3) propose abrupt southward reversals of IMF along with high solar wind pressure as the interplanetary trigger of a Carrington-like event.
...
Cid et al. (2015) found that the profile of the horizontal component (H) of the terrestrial magnetic field measured in a 2-day period extending from 16:00 MLT, 28 October 2003 to 16:00 MLT, 30 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory (in Hungary) was very similar to that recorded at Colaba during the same MLTs on 1–3 September 1859.
...
The goal of this paper is to discover other “Carrington-like” events in local magnetograms and, after analysing their interplanetary triggers, to extrapolate the results to the Carrington storm at Colaba. Section 2 shows the result of a deep search for other “Carrington-like” events in the period when interplanetary data are available. Section 3 describes geospace disturbances during the Carrington-like event on 21 January 2005. In Section 4 we analyse solar and interplanetary observations of the two Carrington-like events observed at mid-latitude which emerged from the systematic analysis. Finally, Section 5 is dedicated to discussion and Section 6 to conclusions.

https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2016/01/swsc150040/swsc150040.html#R3

 

[XPan]

Interesting study looking for comparisons to the Carrington event. (insert pic of happy face pumkin or the great Campeador?)

Strange Event of 28-29 Oct 2003
but no auroras over Stockholm...

"...but on 28 October 2003 at 11:00 UT an X17.2 flare took place. The solar active region hosting the 28 October 2003 flare was also very complex, resembling the sunspot region reported by Carrington, with heliographic coordinates 8° E, 16° S, not far from those of the great flare in 1859 "

It is funny; the study refers (among other) to the major flare event from 28 Oct 2003... coming off a similar region like the 1859 Carrington event. I was waiting and waiting following evening into early morning for massive Northern Lights appearing over Stockholm (29-30 Oct 2003).

Absolutely nothing happened, even if there were (supposedly) plenty of geomagnetic storms registered. I still have the screen shots of the Auroral Oval from that event - but the sky over Stockholm didn't move. I felt that was very odd and couldn't explain it either - so i just put it into the archive as being an odd event.

Back then, I lived at an extreme bright highway (Nynäsvägen, Globe Arena) - I used my digital cameras to make "blind shots" into the night sky "collecting its light" - because if there would be hint of Aurora - the green would always be very easily visible, even when they eyes couldn't see much or nothing at all.


29 Oct 2003
before midnight