Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[XPan]

Auroral Party Time
Geomagnetic storm levels G3 could be expected tonight !
for 27-28 Feb 2023

I was taken aback when the subway driver from which i took over the train, told me about an auroral outbreak over Stockholm (actually over entire Sweden). In hindsight, rather unusual that a train driver would inform me about that ME, excited... well, I didn't see a thing around 23.00 - 23.30. Neither did my husband from the balcony.

But at a facebook group which focuses around Northern Lights over Sweden, many photos of Northern lights where shown from many places around Sweden , both north and south - and quite many showing red auroras. After midnight... well, the sky turned overcast in Stockholm... so typical ! However, the prognosis calls for clear skies tonight...

The image below, is from a place called Sundsvall, a city around 400 km north of Stockholm at the east coast.





However, tonight
from 27-28 of February 2023, a stronger impact is expected which could perhaps raise the geomagnetic activity to Storm levels G3

As of now (27 Feb 2023 • 07:14 UTC time)
The energy levels are very high - albeit based on a model / prognosis, not on factual observations.





Images from the Facebook group
"norrskenssverige" (Northern Lights Sweden)

Norrsken

Norrsken. Gefällt 140.122 Mal · 8.007 Personen sprechen darüber. Störst i Sverige på norrsken! Gilla sidan och håll koll på när norrskenet visar sig hos just dig. Vill du supporta? Prenumera på...

www.facebook.com

Lots of enthusiasm among the people in Sweden, with 1200+ comments which i believe corresponds to 600+ images, when unfolding the thread. Here are a few images.

 

[Puma]

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm in progress

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 11:15 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630151463103082498

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway on Feb. 27th following the impact of a CME during the late hours of Feb. 26th. Solar wind around Earth is now blowing faster than 800 km/s, the highest value in years, and auroras have been sighted as far south as Colorado. A second CME might arrive later today, energizing the storm even more.

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630192475418632194

● Current Conditions at 15:40 UTC on February 27

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G3 in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 7
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 839 km/sec
▪︎ Low density: 7 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.0% Below Average

 

[Chad]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway on Feb. 27th following the impact of a CME during the late hours of Feb. 26th. Solar wind around Earth is now blowing faster than 800 km/s, the highest value in years, and auroras have been sighted as far south as Colorado. A second CME might arrive later today, energizing the storm even more.

Space Weather Physicist, Tamitha Skov, posted about how an oil rig in (from the abbreviations i'm guessing) Saskatoon, Cananda, had to suspend operations as the geomagnetic storm disrupted measurement equipment. The worker comments that in 30 years that's the first time he has know of it happening there.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630307164081516545

 

[Chad]

And SpaceX have cancelled a launch of 21 satellites due to 'a space weather concern':

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630310987193565185

Which might be wise considering this report back in February 2022 when 40 recently launched satellites crashed back to earth due to a minor storm : Minor geomagnetic storm brings 40 recently launched Starlink satellites crashing down to earth -- Sott.net

 

[XPan]

Stockholm, Sweden
Auroral Display | 27 Feb 2023 , 22:12 - 22:17

Despite a pretty strong KP index of 7, the Auroras over Stockholm were not really that impressive, other than during a short duration of perhaps 20 minutes in which they came out clear even to the naked eye.

The rather short and not that bright appearance surprised me with a stronger KP 7 event. In Stockholm you need KP 4.5-5.0 activity in order to see them, and tonight's display tonight was more like a KP 5 event...

Before and after 22.20, I was not able to see any Northern Lights, not even through the electronic viewfinder of the cameras (like with the extreme sensitive Sony A7s, and Canon EOS R6) where you easily can distinguish if there is any hints of green in the sky, while the naked eye can't see anything). But for most of the time - there was just nothing.

However, and thanks to that I went out every 5 minutes, all of the sudden out of nowhere - a bunch of curtains came down, and I was able to picture them. Weheeee ! Notice however, that the camera makes auroras appear to be brighter than what they really looked like to the eye. Even the colors appear to be much more saturated than in reality (unless you have strong auroras, then the eyes do see colors much more clearly).

The bright star in the middle on the first two photos, is Vega in the sign of Lyra.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 28/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10:22Z UTC from Region 3234 (N25W22).

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3229, AR3230, AR3234.AR3235, AR3236, AR3237 and new region AR3238

The total number of sunspots has increased to 192 (92 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3234 has grown in terms of sunspot number, area and has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.


● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at minor storm to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. According to SpaceWeatherlive data these were the periods of the geomagnetic storm

●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 05:22 UTC
●Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 08:00 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 09:38 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 10:49 UTC
●Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 11:15 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 12:30 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 12:58 UTC
●Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 14:35 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 15:46 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 16:02 UTC
●Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 17:21 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 18:48 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 19:02 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 21:20 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 21:46 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 01:19 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 02:55 UTC

Solar wind speed reached a peak of 883 km/s at 12:50 UTC on February 27 Maximum planetary index Kp7

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630392164050927617

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630242201283461121

THE SECOND CME MIGHT HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED: We're still waiting for a second CME to hit Earth's magnetic field *but* it might already be here. On Feb. 27th, between 1000 and 1300 UT, the Faraday Cup on NOAA's DSCOVR satellite went haywire due to a grounding fault. When it regained its senses, the solar wind speed had jumped to 800 km/s, the highest value in years. The CME might have arrived during that time. If so, it means the peak of the storm occurred on Feb 27th at category G3, and we can now expect subsiding G1- to G2-class activity on Feb. 28th. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630062590788288517

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on February 28

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G2
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 6
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 475.6 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 3.11 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.4% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 04:12 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 192 (SN 120 Feb 27)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[XPan]

Aurora over France
27 Feb 2023

I thought this was a pretty cool picture - coming from photographer Alexandre Croisier, who took pictures of Mont Saint-Michel under the red aurora influenced red sky, published via spaceweather.com. He uses an old camera (Canon EOS 6D) from 2013 - which still is phenomenal good when it comes to night images without too much noise. Astonishing for an image sensor which is over 10 years old.

Spaceweather.com wrote on their front page:

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: One and perhaps two CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 26th and 27th, sparking a series of strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras in both hemispheres. Alexandre Croisier witnessed the light show over Mont Saint-Michel in France:

"The Northern Lights were really impressive, with a fantastic red color," says Croisier. "It was a short moment, only about 1 minute with such bright auroras, but truly wonderful to see from one of the most beautiful places in Europe."

Mont Saint-Michel is a small island located off the coast of Normandy. It is home to a stunning medieval abbey that rises majestically above the surrounding landscape. The island has a rich history dating back to the 8th century when it was first used as a religious retreat. Over the years, it has been a fortress, a prison, a place of pilgrimage--and now, the centerpiece of a fantastic auroral display.​

Details:

Hi there, I've just edited 2 images of this rare event seen from one of the best place in France : Mont Saint-Michel. The northern lights were really impressive, with a fantastic red color. It was a short moment, approximatly 1 minute with such bright auroras. It was an fantastic moment to experience. And it was just a little bit visible with the naked eyes... Exif. France, Normandie, Mont Saint-Michel Feb 27, at 21:00 UT (22:0 local) Canon 6D, 6s, f3.2, 3200 iso @50mm Have a nice day ! Alexandre Croisier

New Zealand

Meanwhile on the southern side of the planet, this photo from photographer shows the Aurora Australis over New Zealand - and wrote:

What an epic night of auroras! My night started with some clouds, which evaporated away soon after the sun set. I then got to enjoy an absolutely amazing display of the southern lights over Hoopers Inlet on the Otago Peninsula here in New Zealand. Clear sky and no wind made for simply beautiful reflections. I've just got home after being up all night with the biggest grin ever on my face!

Taken by Ian Griffin on February 28, 2023 @ Hoopers Inlet, Otago, New Zealand

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 01/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8.5 event observed at 17:50 UTC on February 28 from Region 3234 (N25W36). It caused a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over Americas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630626665247195159

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630632749831794689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630667049130139648

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630771518232752129

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3230, AR3234.AR3235, AR3236, AR3237, AR3238
AR3229 is gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 100 (40 of these are grouped into 6 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. AR3234 has decreased in sunspot number to 25 but its area has grown to 860MH. Its magnetic field continues to be delta-class and harbors energy for X-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 21:41 UTC on February 28 Maximum planetary index Kp5

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 01

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 596.4 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 0.11 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -4.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 01:07 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 100 (SN 192 Feb 28)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25:ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 02/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01:07 UTC on March 01 from Region 3240 (S16E55). It caused a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

Real vortex

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630511437855567872

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3230, AR3234, AR3236, AR3237, AR3238 and new regions AR3239, AR3240 and AR3241 AR3235 is gone

These are regions 3238 (N09E33, size 70MH) 3239 (N30E50, size 100MH) and 3241 (N27E72, size 59MH)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631121480246329346

This is region 3240 (S16E54, size 10MH)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630863167898238978

The total number of sunspots has increased to 105 (37 of these are grouped into 8 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. AR3234 has decreased in sunspot number to 20 its area is currently 850MH. Its magnetic field continues to be delta-class and harbors energy for X-class solar flares. AR3234 will leave the solar disk this weekend

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 01:03 UTC on March 01 Maximum planetary index Kp3

GLANCING-BLOW CME POSSIBLE THIS WEEK: Yesterday's M8.6-class solar flare (movie) produced a faint CME. NOAA analysts have determined that it might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 4th. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on that date. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval


Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on March 5th or 6th

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630859409176838144

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 02

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 499.6 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 1.05 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.9% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 03:54 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 105 (SN 100 March 01)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 03/2023

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: February was another strong month for Solar Cycle 25. According to NOAA, the average sunspot number was among the highest of the past 10 years:

Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. February's sunspot numbers are the latest sign that Solar Cycle 25 will exceed predictions. In fact, Solar Cycle 25 has outperformed the official forecast for more than 24 months in a row.​

Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so the solar cycle has plenty of time to strengthen even more, bringing X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras. SpaceWeather.com​

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.8 event observed at 21:16 UTC on March 02 from Region 3234 (N24W65) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631407720564654080

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631306400767832065

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631461092533886977

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3234, AR3236, AR3238, AR3239, AR3240 AR3241 and new region AR3242. AR3230 and AR3237 are gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 103 (32 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.. AR3234 the most active region so far and will leave the solar disk this weekend. So it seems that everything is back to calm for a few days. The rest of the active regions have a stable magnetic field.


● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549.7 km/s at 00:42 UTC on March 02 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 23:45 UTC. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631448964464619520

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631397216899194881

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 4th and 5th in response to an incoming CME. Hurled into space by the M8.6-class flare of Feb. 28th, the CME is not heading directly for Earth. Instead it will deliver only a glancing blow when it arrives. SpaceWeather.com

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 03

▪︎ Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 546.3 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 3.86 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.9% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 02:23 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 103 (SN 105 March 02)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

AR3234 is saying goodbye with a X2.07 solar flare. The event occurred at 17:52 UTC on March 03. It produced a Strong R3 Radio blackout over Americas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631719125532778506

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631720002461081604

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631715670793637888

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 03

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 594.6 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 1.2 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.9% Below Average
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 04/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X2.1 flare from Region 3234 (N25W76).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631747222672138240

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631784522491604994

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3234, AR3236, AR3238, AR3239, AR3240 AR3241, AR3242. and new regions AR3243, AR3244, AR3245


The total number of sunspots has increased to 133 (42 of these are grouped into 10 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. With the exception of region 3234, the other regions have stable magnetic fields. AR3234 still retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic field, however, any CMEs it produces will no longer be Earth-directed.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 10:14 UTC on March 03 Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

A HUGE AURORA, SWIRLING LIKE CRAZY: This was not in the forecast. During the early hours of March 3rd, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap, sparking a light show over Kemi, Finland:

This was an isolated episode--the kind of auroral outburst that will become more common as we move deeper into March. Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field. Even weak streams of solar wind can penetrate to spark a good display. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631473776847360000

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 04

▪︎ Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 499 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 3.16 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.9% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 02:25 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 133 (SN 103 March 03)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 05/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.2 event observed at 15:57 UTC on March 04 from Region 3234 (N25W90). It caused a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632052063310848008

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632074670005448704

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3234, AR3238, AR3239, AR3240 AR3241, AR3242. AR3243, AR3244, AR3245. AR3236 is gone.

A NEW SOURCE OF FLARES: New sunspot AR3242 is magnetically complex and crackling with M-class solar flares. This morning in Hong Kong, David Leong pointed his solar telescope at the sun and immediately saw an explosion:

"AR3242 was already flaring when I started shooting at 5:11 UT," says Leong. "The unusually dark filaments kept changing shape minute by minute on my computer screen. It was an hour of wonder and excitement."

This sunspot is turning toward Earth, and it will soon be in our planet's strike zone. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632051449965207552

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 122 (46 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 22:02 UTC on March 04 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 22:30 UTC. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 05

▪︎ Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 559.6 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 0.91 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.4% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:52 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 122 (SN 133 March 04)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 06/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.8 event observed at 02:28 UTC on March 06 from Region 3243 (N18W78). It caused a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over South East Asia. Previously at 21:35 UTC the same region had produced an M4.9 flare which caused a minor R1 radio blackout over the South Pacific Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632555776731496450

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632596271377571841

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3238, AR3239, AR3240 AR3241, AR3242. AR3243, AR3244, AR3245 and new region AR3246. AR3234 is gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632462280724979712

The total number of sunspots has increased to 137 (47 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3242 and AR3243 pose a threat for M-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606.2 km/s at 13:32 UTC on March 05. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 06

▪︎ Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 4 due to a solar wind flowing from a coronal hole.
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 594.8 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 1.44 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.5% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M5 at 02:28 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 137 (SN 122 March 05)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 07/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17:50 UTC on March 06 from Region 3242 (N10E12) it caused a minor R1 radio blackout over Americas.


There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3238, AR3239, AR3240 AR3241, AR3242. AR3243, AR3244, AR3245, AR3246 and new regions AR3247 and AR3248


The total number of sunspots has increased to 173 (63 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3242 and AR3243 pose a threat for M-class solar flares. AR3245 (S23E33) which began its journey through the solar disk on March 3rd, has grown in number of sunspots with 9, in size reaching 250 millionths of a hemisphere and developing a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. This region poses a threat for M-class solar flares.



● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620.5 km/s at 07:38 UTC on March 06. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632384700844212224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632830415349366784

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on March 07

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 581.7 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 2.71 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.2% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 04:05 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 173 (SN 137 March 06)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com