Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 04/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.9 event observed at 02:49 UTC from departing AR3204 (N24W0)

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3201, AR3206, AR3207, AR3208 and new regions AR3209 and AR3210 All of these small sunspots are stable and quiet. Not one poses a threat for strong flares

FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: Two large sunspot groups are transiting the farside of the sun. We know because NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is detecting their helioseismic echoes. The sun's rotation will turn them toward Earth about a week from now. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 74 (26 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has increased the likelihood of C flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 12:35 UTC on February 03 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621637828206628864

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621498781463203840

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on February 04

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 329.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.26 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2.2 at 00:55 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 74 (SN 56 Feb 02)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 04/2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621596962414891009

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621620275560304640

Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, Hits -100 Degrees Wind Chill - Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon Boom

Premiered 68 minutes ago

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621618238391033856

It seems that the maximum will be only -30.0°C in Val-d'Or today. The coldest since January 15, 1994 (-32.2°C), and a record for February 3! The last day of cold snap (3 consecutive lows below -30°C for Val-d'Or) will be tomorrow. #mm #meteoqc

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621745362968137728

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 05/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2.2 event observed at 00:55 UTC

WHAT'S OVER THE HORIZON? Yesterday, a dense, hot plume of plasma jumped up from behind the sun's northeastern limb.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621692203146919936

The eruption suggests that an active sunspot may be hiding just over the horizon. If so, it should show itself by Monday or Tuesday, turned toward Earth by the sun's 27-day rotation. An emerging sunspot would boost the chance of flares next week. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621860599494746112

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3206, AR3207, AR3208, AR3209, AR3210 and new region AR32011

The total number of sunspots has increased to 76 (28 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has increased the likelihood of C flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05:59 UTC on February 04 Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 03:00 UTC on February 05

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 385.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.91 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 00:07 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 76 (SN 74 Feb 04)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 06/2023

MOSTLY QUIET: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.4 event observed at 10:51 UTC from AR32011

Filament eruption

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622416150226259968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622318205829107712

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622221369441239041

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3207, AR3209, AR3210, AR32011 and new region AR32012 (S17W56) All of these sunspots are stable or in decay. They pose no threat for strong flares.AR3206 and AR3208 are gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 66 (29 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 08:09 UTC on February 05 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 02:48 UTC on February 06 Maximum planetary index: Kp 4

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 03:30 UTC on February 06

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 402.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.88 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 23:27 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 66 (SN 76 Feb 04)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 07/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.1 event observed at 17:00 UTC from AR3213

Coronal mass ejections on February 06

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622785263490531328

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3207, AR3209, AR3210, AR3211, AR3212, and new regions AR3213, AR3214, AR3215 and AR3216

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622698362460901383

AR3213 located on the northeast (N29E13) is a group of 15 sunspots with size 10HM and a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. NOAA forecasts a 35% chance of C-class flares

NEW SUNSPOT: A new and potentially large sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb, right here. This is probably the same sunspot that hurled a giant plume of hot plasma into space from the farside of the sun on Saturday. Now it is turning toward Earth, boosting the odds of geoeffective flares in the days ahead. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 139 (49 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515.2 km/s at 20:07 UTC on February 06 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 20:58 UTC on February 06 Maximum planetary index: Kp 4

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on February 07

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 522.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.45 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 02:42 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 134 (SN 66 Feb 06)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 08/2023

M FLARES. Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3213 generated four M-class flares.

● M1 from a unknown sunspot at 13:53 UTC it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean. There is a CME associated not Earth directed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623064365040562205

● M1.5 from AR3213 at 20.07 UTC it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

● M3.8 from AR3213 at 22:58 UTC it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean and Oceania

● M6.3 from AR3213 at 23:07 UTC it produced a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over Oceania

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623133762757308416

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623108539274207235

● M2 from AR3213 at 02:30 UTC on February 08 it produced a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3207, AR3209, AR3210, AR3211, AR3212, and new regions AR3213, AR3214, AR3215 and AR3216

AR3213 located on the northeast (N29E13) is a group of 15 sunspots with size 10HM and a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. NOAA forecasts a 35% chance of C-class flares

AR3213 has grown to 80HM


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 110 (33 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. NOAA has increased the likelihood of strong flares because AR3213 retains its magnetic complexity in beta-gamma

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 08:22 UTC on February 07. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on February 08

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 524.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 12.69 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M2 at 02:30 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 110 (SN 134 Feb 07)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 09/2023

MORE M FLARES. Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3213 continues to generate M-class flares

● M2 from AR3213 at 02:53 UTC on February 08 it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Indian Oceania

● M1.6 from AR3213 at 16:04 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

● M1.5 from AR3217 at 20:12 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean.

● M1.7 from AR3213 at 21:13 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

● M1.7 from AR3213 at 21:37 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

● M3.8 from AR3213 at 03:00 UTC on February 09 it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Oceania

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623436635290619906

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623433468452687873

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3210, AR3211, AR3212, AR3213, AR3214, AR3215, AR3216 and new regions AR3217 and AR3218 AR3207 and AR3209 are gone.

AR3213 has grown in size and magnetic complexity


New region AR3217 located on the southeast is 300 millionths of a hemisphere in size with a beta magnetic field

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623530164725628929

The total number of sunspots has increased to 142 (62 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. NOAA has increased the likelihood of strong flares because AR3213 grew in magnetic complexity to beta-delta that harbors energy for M-class solar flares and a new active region (13217) turns into view.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold Reached: 05:05 UTC on February 08 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599.7 km/s at 18:55 UTC. Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on February 09

▪︎Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 04:15 UTC
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 543 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.86 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.2% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M3 at 03:10 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 142 (SN 110 Feb 08)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

STRANGE TIDES IN THE PLASMASPHERE: Tides are one of the oldest phenomena known to physics. Ocean waters rise and fall like clockwork in response to the gravitational pull of the sun and Moon. There's nothing surprising about tides.

Yet, researchers studying tides have just found a big surprise. There are tides in Earth's plasmasphere, and they are very strange. The discovery was published in the Jan 26th edition of Nature Physics.​

The plasmasphere is a lopsided donut of cold plasma inside Earth's magnetic field. It is created by leakage from the top of Earth's atmosphere (the ionosphere). The outer surface of the plasmasphere is called "the plasmapause"--and that is where the tides have been found.

"We can think of the plasmapause as the surface of a 'plasma ocean' surrounding Earth," says one of the lead authors Quanqi Shi of Shandong University. "Using a 40-year database of satellite observations, we report the first identification of lunar tides on the surface of this plasma ocean."

It is not surprising that Moon's gravity would stretch and modulate the shape of the plasmasphere. After all, the plasmasphere is made of matter, and matter responds to gravity. But the response is not what the researchers expected.

Shi explains: "Interestingly, the lunar plasmaspheric tide forms a few percent bulge that is offset 90 degrees ahead of the Earth-Moon axis, which is significantly different from the high tide in Earth's liquid oceans." This inexplicable offset was verified by nearly 36,000 plasmapause crossings by various spacecraft over almost four solar cycles from 1977 to 2015.

Above: Sample images of the plasmasphere taken by NASA's IMAGE spacecraft (left) and China's Chang’e-3 spacecraft (right). [extended caption] [source]​

What's going on? The researchers aren't certain, but they believe gravity and electromagnetism may have joined forces to produce a new kind of tidal effect.

Space physicists have long known that the Moon's gravity affects winds in Earth's ionized upper atmosphere. This means the Moon can actually modify electrical currents in the ionosphere, altering electromagnetic fields. The research team looked at data from NASA's Van Allen Probes and found that, indeed, electric fields reaching up into the plasmasphere appear to be modulated by lunar tides. Computer models suggest that these fields can shift the bulge to a 90 degree offset position and explain its daily and monthly variations.

"Our discovery of this plasma tidal effect may indicate a fundamental interaction mechanism in the Earth-Moon system that has not been previously considered," says Shi. "Understanding this phenomenon could lead to better forecasts of space weather and improved safety for spacecraft and satellites." SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 10/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 0310 UTC on February 09 from Region 3217 (S10E63) which has been the most active region

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623632523078115329

A number of M-Flares on Thursday around both AR 3213 and 3217.


● M3.0 from AR3217 at 03:10 UTC on February 09 it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Oceania

● M1.0 from AR3217 at 07:17 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over West Indian Ocean.

● M2.8 from AR3217 at 09:07 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Africa

● M1.4 from AR3213 at 14:56 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

● M1.4 from AR3217 at 15:26 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

● M1.8 from AR3217 at 18:42 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

● M1.8 from AR3217 at 18:42 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623673210712559618

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623676213687451661

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3213, AR3214, AR3215, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218 and new regions AR3219, AR3220 and AR3221

AR3210, AR3211, AR3212 are gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623807221996945409

The total number of sunspots has increased to 150 (61 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 75% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. NOAA has increased the likelihood of strong flares because Sunspot AR3213 has an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares and AR3217 is crackling with M-class solar flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 21:00 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold Reached: 23:54 UTC on February 09 Maximum planetary index Kp5

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623866453932867584

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on February 10

▪︎ Minor G1 geomagnetic storm in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 5
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 496.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 8.42 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.0% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M3 at 03:03 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 150 (SN 142 Feb 09)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 11/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.6 event observed at 03:03 UTC on February 10 from Region 3213 (N30W36) which has been the most active region.

A number of M-Flares on Thursday around both AR 3213 and 3220

● M3.6 from AR3213 at 03:03 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Oceania

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623885504256135169

● M1.3 from AR3213 at 08:05 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.1 from AR3213 at 14:55 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

● M1.6 from AR3208 at 16:00 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America. This sunspot region is on the west farside.

● M1.2 from AR3220 at 22:41 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Oceania

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624181456233693184

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624251143227416578

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3213, AR3214, AR3215, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218, AR3219, AR3220 and AR3221 and new region AR3222

The total number of sunspots has increased to 190 (70 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. NOAA maintains the likelihood of strong flares because Sunspot AR3217 has an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares while AR3213 retains its beta-delta magnetic field

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544.7 km/s at 22:41 UTC. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 22:57 UTC on February 10 Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624129312160088064

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624009489639940103

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on February 11

▪︎ Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 481.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.21 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 22:45 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 190 (SN 159 Feb 10)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

A X-class flare 1.16 at 15:30 UTC on February 11 from from AR3217 located on the southeast (S11E37) it produced a strong R3 Radio blackout over South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624440394023940096

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624437373437198338

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624459922912968704

Space Weather News: 10 February 2023

Dr. Tamitha Skov

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624129607535587328

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624351565376065537

Opinion

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623894496889999362

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 12/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 1530 UTC from Region 3217 (S09E36).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624459263518154752

A series of M-class flares also occurred.

● M2.0 from AR3208 at 08:08 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.0 from AR3220 at 10:58 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over Africa

● M1.4 from AR3222 at 11:34 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M1.5 from AR3217 at 12:09 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M1.1 from AR3217 at 12:23 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M1.t from AR3208 at 12:40 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M1.4 from AR3222 at 17:23 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624381254798872578

There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3208, AR3209
AR3213, AR3214, AR3215, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218, AR3219, AR3220, AR3221, AR3222 and new regions AR3223 and AR3224

The total number of sunspots has increased to 209 (101 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 80% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares. NOAA maintains the likelihood of strong flares because Sunspot AR3217 has an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares while AR3214 has grown a beta-gamma magnetic field and AR3213 has lost its beta component but delta magnetic field remains.

A DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3217 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Indeed, it just unleashed one The sunspot is turning toward Earth so any flares this weekend are likely to be geoeffective. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527.6 km/s at 22:00 UTC on February 11 Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624397285399621636

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624515499710361601

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on February 12

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 475.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.57 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 03:44 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 209 (SN 190 Feb 11)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 13/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.1 event observed at 0848 UTC from Region 3217 (S12E22) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean

Other M-class flares recorded:

● M1.4 from AR3217 at 09:27 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M1.2 from AR3222 at 13:34 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean and South America

● M1.0 from AR3217 at 15:38 UTC it produced a Modetate R1 Radio blackout over South America

Magnetic loops in the northeast limb.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624756060425707528

North pole filament eruption

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624947970884894721

POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Yesterday's X1-class solar flare attracted all the attention, but it did not produce a CME. Another explosion did. Five hours before the X-flare, a filament of magnetism erupted from the sun's northern hemisphere and hurled a CME into space: movie. Most of the CME will pass north of Earth, but not all. A glancing blow is likely on Feb. 14th. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3208, AR3213, AR3214, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218, AR3219, AR3220, AR3221, AR3223, AR3224 and new region AR3225

AR3209, AR3215 and AR3222 are gone.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 186 (75 of these are grouped into 12 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 80% chance for M flares and 25% chance for X flares. NOAA reduces its estimate for M-class and X-class solar flares due to the fact that AR3213 and AR3217 lost their delta component and currently their magnetic field is beta-gamma while AR3214 lost its component gamma, remaining with a stable beta magnetic field

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 11:18 UTC on February 12 Maximum planetary index Kp2

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on February 13

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 384.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.88 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.4% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3.2 at 00:16 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 186 (SN 209 Feb 12)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 14/2023

Heliophysicist Dr. C. Alex Young stated in his Blog

Sun activity February 13, 2023: A breather​

Periods of intense activity – like what we just experienced – will become more frequent as we get closer to solar maximum. And each active period will also generally be more intense. And in between … the sun will take a breather. The peak of the sun’s 11-year cycle is coming (due around the middle of this decade). So stayed tuned for the next round of solar excitement!

After the intense activity of the sun in recent days, there is finally a respite. Unlike in previous days, only two M-class flares were recorded. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.4 event observed at 15:56 UTC from Region 3226 (N11E33) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America.


The other event was M1.0 from the same region but at 05:18 UTC on February 13, it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over India.

A Prominence tries to erupt on the northeast limb

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625309480551325698

There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3213, AR3214, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218, AR3219, AR3220, AR3221, AR3224, AR3225 and new regions AR3226, AR3227, AR3228
AR3208, AR3223 are gone


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 185 (55 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 65% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares.

NOAA reduces its estimate of M- and X-class solar flares because AR3217 (S09E06) which was considered a dangerous region in the past days, has lost its delta-gamma components and now presents a stable beta magnetic field as AR3214 (N11W65). On the other hand, AR3226 (N10E32) grew in magnetic complexity and presents an unstable beta-gamma field that harbor energy for M-class Finally AR3213 (N28W80) is about to leave the solar disk with a beta-gamma magnetic field but it will no longer represent a danger for the Earth.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 19:46 UTC on February 13 Maximum planetary index Kp2

Aurora Oval

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 14-15 when one or more CMEs could deliver glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field. The storm clouds were hurled into space by an X1-flare and an erupting magnetic filament--both on Feb. 11th. The CME most likely to strike Earth is this halo event. SpaceWeather.com

● Current Conditions at 05:40 UTC on February 14

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: No data available
▪︎density: No data available
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.2% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:03 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 185 (SN 186 Feb 13)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 15/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.6 event observed at 1212 UTC from departing Region 3213 (N28W92) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625523137331843074

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625487311323680772

There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3213, AR3214, AR3216 AR3217, AR3218, AR3219, AR3220, AR3221, AR3224, AR3225 and new regions AR3226, AR3227, AR3228

The total number of sunspots has increased to 206 (67 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

NOAA reduces its estimate of M- and X-class solar flares because AR3213 (N28W92) is leaving the solar disk and no longer represent a danger for the Earth. On the other hand, AR3226 (N11E19) continues to grow and now has an area of 480MH (Earth equals almost 170MH) and its magnetic complexity remains beta-gamma that harbors energy for M-class solar flares


● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 362.5 km/s at 13:13 UTC on February 14 Maximum planetary index Kp3

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625457662409461760

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on February 15

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 344.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 29.11 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.8% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 02:25 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 206 (SN 185 Feb 14)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com