Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 26_2023

THE END OF THE RECENT SOLAR LULL COULD BE IN SIGHT... Says Dr. Alex Young but in the meantime solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 00:45 UTC on October 25

There are currently 2 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3468, AR3471
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AR3470 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 26 (5 of these are grouped into 2 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 20% chance for C flares, 1% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

SUDDENLY, SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE DROPPING: Solar Cycle 25 roared to life in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025. Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping:​


The red line in this plot from the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center shows sunspot counts heading for zero as October 2023 comes to an end. The face of today's sun looks almost blank--a dramatic change from the highly-spotted disks of recent months.​
Does this mean Solar Cycle 25 is ending prematurely? No. "Sunspot lulls" are normal statistical fluctuations observed even during very strong solar cycles. Almost certainly, Solar Cycle 25 will bounce back soon as it heads for a maximum in the next year or two. Stay tuned for more sunspots. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On October 25
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s (Normal speed) at 00:42 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29:53:UTC

A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A double-lobed hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing a complex stream of solar wind toward Earth. ETA: Oct. 30th. Its arrival could spark a display of high-latitude Halloween auroras. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.85 nT North
aurora-map (1).jpg
● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on October 26

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 370 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 12.63 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.12 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 2244 UT Oct25
▪︎ Sunspot number: 26 (SN 34 October 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from two coronal holes could reach Earth on Oct. 30th.
.......
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 26_2023
UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A crack has opened in Earth's magnetic field, triggering an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm on Oct. 26th. High-latitude auroras are likely in the hours ahead. Aurora alerts: SMS Text


Seismic Crisis Iceland - 2 Feet Of The Global Warming Goodness - Hurric.
Oppenheimer Ranch Project Premiered 13 hours ago



 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 27_2023

SOLAR FLARES ARE BACK! Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.4 event observed at 23:24 UTC from AR3473 (N12E59) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
After a hiatus of a couple of weeks, the new region rotating onto the Sun (top left), just produced an eruptive M-class flare. Movie to follow as data becomes available! #solarflare #spaceweather. Dr. Ryan French via X
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NOAA FORECASTS QUICKER, STRONGER SOLAR MAX: When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters thought it would be weak and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:​

NOAA's original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (
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), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line (
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) traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.​
Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.​
If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003. However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year's Solar Max could be potent. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 4 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3468, AR3471 and new regions AR3472, AR3473
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Total number of sunspots has decreased to 57 (17 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 25% chance for C flares, 5% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels (G1) for the past 24 hours. On October 26 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 19:41 UTC Total IMF reached 13 nT at 08:19 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -8.03 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on October 27

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 453 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.63 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 10.68 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 2324 UT Oct26
▪︎ Sunspot number: 57 (SN 26 October 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from two coronal holes could reach Earth on Oct. 30th.
.......
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 28_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08:54 UTC on October 27 from region AR3473​

FAST-MOVING CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) just left the sun traveling 1558 km/s (3.5 million mph). It was slingshot from the sun's northeastern limb by an erupting filament of magnetism on Oct. 26th (2324 UT). SOHO coronagraphs photographed its departure:​

A NASA model of the CME suggests it will completely miss Earth. We're not so sure. This is a lopsided halo CME with a clear visual hint of an Earth-directed component. Although forecast models disagree, there may be a chance of a glancing blow on Oct. 30th. If the CME does strike, it would add its effect to that of an incoming solar wind stream due to arrive at about the same time. High-latitide sky watchers should be alert for auroras before Halloween. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3468, AR3471, AR3472, AR3473 and new region AR3474
hmi200.jpg
Total number of sunspots has increased to 66 (16 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 40% chance for C flares, 10% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3471 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On October 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 21:00 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04:30 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are likely on Oct. 30th when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double-lobed hole in the sun's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -8.22 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:15 UTC on October 28

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 388 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 10 23 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: B7 0148 UT Oct28
▪︎ Sunspot number: 66 (SN 57 October 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from two coronal holes could reach Earth on Oct. 30th.
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
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EarthSky.org
 
the Sun speaks ☀️

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Halloween Solar Storms of 2003. This was a period of exceptional high solar activity during Solar Cycle 23 including the strongest solar flare recorded in modern history peaking between X28 and X45. There were also many earth-directed coronal mass ejections which caused multiple G5 geomagnetic storms. Aurora displays were visible as far south as Texas in the USA and Spain in Europe.

2003 events (A period of war initiated through lies)

● February 15 – Millions of people worldwide take part in massive anti-war protests in anticipation of the United States and its allies invading Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime.

● March 20 – The Iraq War begins with the invasion of Iraq by the U.S. and allied forces

●April 9 – U.S. forces seize control of Baghdad, ending the rule of Saddam Hussein.

● May 11 - A cyclone makes landfall in Sri Lanka, killing 260 people and causing the country's worst natural disaster in 50 years

●October 4 – Maxim restaurant suicide bombing: A Palestinian suicide bomber attacks a restaurant in Haifa, Israel, killing at least 19 people.

● October 5 – Israeli warplanes strike alleged Islamic jihad bases inside Syrian territory, the first Israeli attack on the country since the 1973 Yom Kippur War

● December 13 – Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, is captured in the small town of Ad-Dawr by the U.S. Army.

● The 6.6 Mw  Bam earthquake shakes Iran, killing approximately 50,000 people

What will the sun say this year? X-flares or Ice Age?


 
Solar Storms, Fast Wind, and Flare Risk Rises | Space Weather Spotlight 26 October 2023
Update 26 October 2023:
This week, our Sun launches some gorgeous eye candy along with several wispy Earth-directed solar storms. The first of these storms is hitting Earth now and is enhancing some fast solar wind. Aurora photographers at high latitudes will definitely get a show, while there is a slight chance for aurora at mid-latitudes as well. This will also be the case as we approach Halloween, when the second solar storm will hit, followed by a fast wind chaser. Solar flare activity remains low, but new regions will be rotating into view over the next few days. Amateur radio operators should expect low noise on the bands for now, with more noise and risk for radio blackouts to increase into next week. GPS users should expect pretty decent reception over the next couple of days, except anywhere near aurora on the nightside. Learn the details of the wispy solar storms, and see what else is in the spotlight this week.

In August last year, the Sun began to throw a tantrum. Clusters of dark spots appeared on its face, marking regions where magnetic fields were knotting and twisting its surface. By early September, some of these sunspots had rotated around to the far side of the Sun — and let loose an enormous belch of superheated gas. This huge eruption raced outwards, engulfing a US$1.5-billion spacecraft that was orbiting nearby.

That craft, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, remained remarkably unscathed, and was even able to take unprecedented measurements as the solar blast washed over it. From nearby, a second spacecraft — the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter — watched the entire drama unfold. Never before have space missions seen so much activity so close to the Sun.

What these probes have found, in this and similar moments over the past few years, is rewriting much of what scientists know about the Sun. Working in tandem, the spacecraft have observed massive solar eruptions, a slithering magnetic ‘snake’ on the Sun’s surface, and heat and energy rippling slowly through the Sun’s atmosphere. “We are living in a paradigm-shifting moment for this field,” says Dan Seaton, a solar physicist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado.

It’s a fortuitous time to have these spacecraft so close to the Sun, because the star is hurtling towards the peak of its 11-year cycle of activity. The current solar cycle is already stronger than the last one; there were 163 sunspots on the Sun’s surface in June 2023, the most in more than two decades. August also brought several X-class flares, the largest type possible. “We’re definitely getting close to maximum if we’re not there already,” says Katharine Reeves, a solar physicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Powerful storms

Solar storms can send waves of energetic particles washing over Earth, where they can disrupt communications and knock out power grids, even as they form beautiful glowing aurorae over the poles. In February 2022, the aerospace company SpaceX lost 38 of 49 newly launched communications satellites when a solar storm caused Earth’s atmosphere to increase in density, creating extra drag on the satellites and pulling them out of orbit1.

To better understand the Sun’s activity and predict its effects on Earth, researchers have built various solar observatories over the years. Many have been in Earth orbit, whereas others have been stationed between Earth and the Sun or off that line, to get a better perspective on what storms might be incoming. For instance, India’s Aditya-L1 solar observatory, which was launched in September, is headed to a point part way between the Sun and Earth, where it will join two 1990s-era missions that monitor the Sun for Earthbound solar storms.

But not until the Parker Solar Probe launched in 2018, and the Solar Orbiter in 2020, did humanity start to get a close-up view of Earth’s home star. The two missions were conceived of independently and carry different types of instrument, but they work well together, Reeves says. Parker Solar Probe is on a looping trajectory that takes it closer to the Sun over time, allowing it to skim through the solar atmosphere and measure particles and magnetic fields at closer range than any spacecraft ever has. Solar Orbiter flies on a more distant orbit, but it has high-resolution cameras that can reveal bright solar flares, tiny plasma jets and other solar details.

View attachment 84311
Solar Orbiter captured a giant solar eruption on 15 February 2022.Credit: Solar Orbiter/EUI Team/ESA & NASA

Occasionally, their operators will coordinate the crafts to work in concert. For instance, mission managers realized that the spacecraft would be in an especially interesting alignment in June 2022. “We thought, OK, that’s worth asking for a particular mini campaign, and asked the engineers to roll the spacecraft, because only then would we get Parker Solar Probe just into our field of view,” says Daniel Müller, the project scientist for Solar Orbiter at the European Space Agency in Noordwijk, the Netherlands. So Solar Orbiter rolled to the side, both spacecraft made observations and scientists ended up with the first measurements of how quickly the temperature rises from the Sun’s surface into its atmosphere2.

It’s the combination of the instruments on each spacecraft — and the unique geometry that occur when they are at different places near the Sun — that enables this new science to be carried out. Many researchers are particularly interested in using the two missions to track the earliest phases of solar eruptions. These happen when twisted magnetic fields in the Sun’s atmosphere suddenly snap into a different configuration. The reshuffling of magnetic energy often causes a huge burst of superheated gas to erupt into space. If these coronal mass ejections reach Earth, they cause geomagnetic storms that can damage satellites and power grids.

Another opportunity for joint observations came in April 2021, when Solar Orbiter captured an eruption of material from the far side of the Sun as it headed for Parker Solar Probe. Within hours, a wave of charged particles engulfed the NASA spacecraft. The measurements it made allowed scientists to track the eruption in unprecedented detail, illuminating how these eruptions begin and evolve. Tatiana Niembro, an astrophysicist at CfA, and her team reported these in August3. Solar Orbiter was able to identify the particular region of the Sun that erupted, and Parker Solar Probe took pictures of the coronal mass ejection before the eruption washed over the spacecraft — the first measurement of this type.

Even more exciting for solar physicists was the September 2022 solar eruption — one of the fastest and most energetic solar eruptions on record. Emerging from the far side of the Sun, it blasted material out at around 2,700 kilometres per second4. Had it hit Earth, it might have caused a geomagnetic storm close to the most powerful ever recorded, the Carrington Event of 1859 that caused auroras to glow at low latitudes and telegraph equipment to break down.

Snakes and ropes

In the run-up to the eruption, on 5 September 2022, a giant solar snake of plasma appeared in Solar Orbiter images, wiggling its way across much of the disk of the Sun. The structure was essentially a rope of gas that was cooler than its surroundings, tracing the outlines of a filament of the solar magnetic field.

Scientists thought that such magnetic ropes were linked with coronal mass ejections, because they often appeared right before an eruption. But Solar Orbiter was able to nail down the association. It showed how this rope formed and moved in the hours before the eruption, slithering along at around 170 kilometres per second5. “That was just fantastic information,” says Lucie Green, a solar physicist at University College London. “We haven’t captured something like that before.”

Hours later, the region where the snake originated erupted in the massive blast, sending billions of tonnes of superheated gas racing into space. This slammed almost straight into Parker Solar Probe. Engineers had built the spacecraft to withstand such eruptions, but it was still a nail-biting few days until Parker was able to send an ‘all’s-well’ signal back to Earth.

Since then, scientists have been working their way through analysing observations of the eruption, which is one of the fastest ever measured. “The amount of details, the amount of complexity and also the violence of the event — we’ve never seen it before and it’s just impressive,” says Nour Raouafi, a solar physicist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, and principal investigator for Parker Solar Probe.

Among other things, the probe watched the plasma sweep dust particles out of its way — information that can help space-weather forecasters to understand the forces that influence a solar eruption on its way to Earth6. From the spacecraft’s measurements, researchers also discovered that the eruption progressed in three stages over the course of two days, each with its own mix charged-particle and magnetic-field behaviour7. Two of those stages had been seen before in other coronal mass ejections, but the third — marked by low-density plasma washing over the spacecraft — was unlike anything previously observed.

There is also a third fresh source of solar measurements, which is just starting to produce results. On the Hawaiian island of Maui sits the four-metre Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, the world’s largest solar telescope. It became operational in 2020, but is still working through technical issues and is often offline for engineering work. Whenever it can, the Inouye telescope observes at the same time as Parker Solar Probe passes close by the Sun, says Alexandra Tritschler, a senior scientist at the National Solar Observatory in Boulder.
Last year, as a proof of concept, researchers arranged the schedules so that Solar Orbiter studied an active region on the Sun at the same time as that area was coming into view for the Inouye telescope. The data are still being analysed, but the teams hope to repeat joint observations in the future, Müller says.

Solar researchers expect that the next few years will produce a bounty of discoveries. Solar Orbiter is due to continue operating for at least another seven years, with its orbit gradually becoming more inclined to that of the Sun so that it looks down more on the Sun’s poles than on its equator. Meanwhile, Parker Solar Probe’s closest pass through the Sun’s atmosphere is still to come, in December 2024. After that, if NASA decides to continue funding the mission, the spacecraft might continue to make more deep dives into the Sun.
“It’s unique,” Green says of the combination of the two missions. “We may never have it to this level again.”
Nature 622, 684-685 (2023)
doi: Staring at the Sun — close-up images from space rewrite solar science


RT-24:27 Minutes
 

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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 29_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06:23 UTC on October 28 from region AR3473 (N16E44)

There are currently 6 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3468, AR3471, AR3472, AR3473 AR3474 and new region AR3475
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Total number of sunspots has increased to 70 (21 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 40% chance for C flares, 10% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to Minor storm levels (G1) for the past 24 hours. On October 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 1833 UTC Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 19:49 UTC Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 02:18 UTC on October 29

STORMS TODAY: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are underway on Oct. 29th in response to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. They contain shock waves that act like mini-CMEs, sparking geomagnetic storms and auroras at high latitudes. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.72 nT South
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Vincent Ledvina via X
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● Current Conditions at 04:15 UTC on October 29

▪︎ MInor Geomagnetic storm (kp 5)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 557 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.32 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.2 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: B9 0250 UT Oct29
▪︎ Sunspot number: 70 (SN 66 October 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from two coronal holes could reach Earth on Oct. 30th.
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 30_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 13:09 UTC on October 29 from region 3474 (S17E12).
There are currently 4 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3472, AR3473 AR3474, AR3475
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AR3468 is gone & AR3471 will be leaving the solar disk in a few hours

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 61 (21 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 60% chance for C flares, 15% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3474 (S17E12) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region has tripled in size today and it is crackling with C-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to Minor storm levels (G1) for the past 24 hours. On October 29 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 09:44 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:04 UTC​

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: As predicted, a fast-moving stream of solar wind is blowing around Earth today, Oct. 30th. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras shining through almost-full Moonlight. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.74 nT North
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on October 30

▪︎ Geospace active (kp 4)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 568 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.88 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.88 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.2 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0019 UT Oct30
▪︎ Sunspot number: 61 (SN 70 October 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole.
.......

SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 31_2023

NO HALLOWEEN STORM THIS YEAR -Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03:49 UTC on October 30 from region 3474 (S18W02).
20 YEARS LATER, THE HALLOWEEN STORMS: Imagine waking up to this headline: "Half of Earth’s Satellites Lost!" Impossible? It actually happened during the Great Halloween Storms of 2003.​
Turn back the clock 20 years. Solar Cycle 23 was winding down, and space weather forecasters were talking about how quiet things would soon become. Suddenly, the sun unleashed two of the strongest solar flares of the Space Age--an X17 flare on Oct. 28 followed by an X10 on Oct 29, 2003. Both hurled fast CMEs directly toward Earth.
halloween2003_cme_strip.jpg
Traveling 2125 km/s and 1948 km/s, respectively, each CME reached Earth in less than a day, sparking extreme (G5) geomagnetic storms on Oct. 29, 30, and 31, 2003. Auroras descended as far south as Georgia, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma: photo gallery.

Onboard the International Space Station, astronauts took shelter in the hardened Zvezda service module to protect themselves from high energy particles. Meanwhile, airline pilots were frantically changing course. Almost every flight over Earth’s poles detoured to lower latitudes to avoid radiation, costing as much as $100,000 per flight. Many Earth-orbiting satellites experienced data outages, reboots and even unwanted thruster firings. Some operators simply gave up and turned their instruments off.

There’s a dawning awareness that something else important happened, too. Many of Earth's satellites were "lost"--not destroyed, just misplaced. In a 2020 paper entitled "Flying Through Uncertainty," USAF satellite operators recalled how "the majority of satellites (in low Earth orbit) were temporarily lost, requiring several days of around-the-clock work to reestablish their positions."

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Active sunspot 486 was the source of the 2003 Halloween storms​

How did this happen? The Halloween storms pumped an extra 3 Terrawatts of power into Earth’s upper atmosphere. Geomagnetic heating puffed up the atmosphere, sharply increasing aerodynamic drag on satellites. Some satellites in low-Earth orbit found themselves off course by one to tens of kilometers.

Most satellite operators today have never experienced anything like the Halloween storms. That's a problem because the number of objects they need to track has sharply increased. Since 2003, the population of active satellites has ballooned to more than 7,000, with an additional 20,000+ pieces of debris larger than 10 cm. Losing track of so many objects in such a congested environment could theoretically trigger a cascade of collisions, rendering low Earth orbit unusable for years following an extreme geomagnetic storm. Now that’s scary.
SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 3 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3472, AR3473 AR3474,
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AR3475 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 62 (33 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 70% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3474 (S18W02) & AR3473 (N15E21)
have developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.
FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: When this week began, sunspot AR3474 didn't exist. Now it is 50,000 km wide with 2 dark cores bigger than Earth. The fast growing sunspot (movie) has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On October 30 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 02:49 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:42 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.69 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on October 31

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 509 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 2.68 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 0023 UT Oct31
▪︎ Sunspot number: 62 (SN 61 October 30)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole.
.......

SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 01_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 00:23 UTC on October 31 from region 3473 (N16E09)
SUNSPOT NUMBERS ARE BOUNCING BACK: After a two week decline, which reminded some observers of Solar Minimum, sunspot numbers are bouncing back. The emergence of multiple new sunspots on the solar disk plus a new farside sunspot rotating over the sun's eastern limb is driving the sunspot number back up to 100. This is a normal fluctuation en route to Solar Max. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3472, AR3473 AR3474 and new regions AR3476, AR3477
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Total number of sunspots has increased to 116 (66 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 85% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3474 (S18W18) has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.​

POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION: A solar magnetic filament erupted on Halloween night, carving a "canyon of fire" in the sun's southern hemisphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the debris as it slingshot into space:​

A boomerang presentation of the Halloween eruption.​
The walls of the canyon are at least 10,000 km high and 10 times as long. Fragments of the magnetic filament may soon emerge from the blast site in the form of a CME. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs will soon reveal if it has an Earth-dorected component. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On October 31 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 12:56 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08:51 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.15 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on November 01

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 477 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4. 9 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 0041 UT Nov01
▪︎ Sunspot number: 116 (SN 62 October 31)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a equatorial coronal hole.
.......

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SCIENTISTS ACKNOWLEDGE THEY GOT IT WRONG, THAT THE PEAK OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS FAST APPROACHING - Electroverse
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has released a “revised prediction” for the current solar cycle, which states that the upcoming solar maximum will arrive sooner and be more explosive than they initially forecast, reports Live Science.
Scientists forecasting solar weather now say that we are fast approaching an explosive peak in solar activity.
The sun’s current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in early-2019.

At the time, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would most likely peak at some point in 2025 and be underwhelming compared with average cycles, much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
They were wrong, SC25 ramped-up quicker than expected and is now threatening to end prematurely (potentially with a bang).
On October 25, the SWPC finally issued a “revised prediction” for Solar Cycle 25 and acknowledged that its initial estimations were “no longer reliable enough for SWPC’s customers”–speaking to its private space exploration and satellite companies.
The new update states that “solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level” than initially predicted and that solar maximum could come as early as January next year and no later than October.
Also worth noting, despite SC25’s stronger than expected start, the cycle is still running historically weak, and will comfortably conclude as such if its max does indeed arrive promptly:
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Solar Cycle 25 (green line) compared with the previous four cycles [solen.info]
A more active solar cycle peak could lead to disruptions here on Earth.

As I reported Tuesday, this week marks the 20th anniversary of the Great Halloween Storm of 200
3
Solar Cycle 23 was winding down this time 20 years ago, and space weather forecasters were talking about how quiet things would soon become. Suddenly, the sun unleashed two of the strongest solar flares of the Space Age: an X17 flare on Oct 28, followed by an X10 on Oct 29, 2003. Both hurled fast-moving Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) directly toward Earth.
Many Earth-orbiting satellites experienced data outages, reboots and even unwanted thruster firings. Some operators simply gave up and turned their instruments off. Many of Earth’s satellites were actually ‘lost’.
In a 2020 paper entitled “Flying Through Uncertainty,” USAF satellite operators recalled how “the majority of satellites (in low Earth orbit) were temporarily lost, requiring several days of around-the-clock work to reestablish their positions.”
Most satellite operators today have never experienced anything like the Halloween storms. “That’s a problem,” writes Dr Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com, “because the number of objects they need to track has sharply increased.”
Since 2003, the population of active satellites has ballooned to more than 7,000, with an additional 20,000+ pieces of debris larger than 10 cm. Losing track of so many objects in such a congested environment could theoretically trigger a cascade of collisions, rendering low Earth orbit unusable for years following an extreme geomagnetic storm.
Given our ever-increasing dependence on this tech, as well our planet’s ever-waning magnetic field strength, that’s scary.

A more active solar maximum poses a “larger hazard for these critical technologies and services,” NOAA representatives wrote in their updated forecast. Also, wildlife experts have warned that a more active solar maximum could disorient animals that rely on Earth’s magnetic field to navigate, such as large whales and migrating birds.
...
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 02_2023

A NEW SUNSPOT REGION IS VERY ACTIVE:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3477 has produced two M-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.4 event observed at 12:26 UTC, it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean.
20231101_215115.jpg
20231101_215125.png

There are currently 6 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3472, AR3473 AR3474 AR3476, AR3477 and new region AR3478
hmi200.gif
Total number of sunspots has decreased to 105 (45 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 85% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3474 (S18W18) has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 21:48 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05:10 UTC

CORRECTION--MAYBE IT *WILL* HIT EARTH: A solar magnetic filament erupted on Halloween night, carving a "canyon of fire" in the sun's southern hemisphere. Initial NASA models of the resulting CME suggested it would miss Earth. However, new NOAA models of the same CME point to a glancing blow on Nov. 4th. If so, the impact could cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.31 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

RARE BLUE AURORAS OVER FRANCE: If you live in France, you probably remember the night of Sept. 25th. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field, sparking a display of rare red auroras as far south as Burgundy. Upon further review, however, there was a color even more rare than red. C'est bleu:​

"On Sept. 25th I was very pleased to capture some pictures of the red auroras over France (48°N)," reports photographer Emmanuel Beaudoin. "After careful study of the images, it appears that a second aurora, later that same night, produced an incredible blue color."

This is indeed rare. Blue auroras are seldom seen even in Arctic countries where auroras appear almost every night. How did they get to France? The answer is the Moon, which was almost full (83%) on the night of the storm.

Blue can appear when bright moonlight skims the top of the auroras. The process is called "resonant scattering." High up in the aurora zone, ionized nitrogen molecules (N2+) naturally produce blue light, just a little, usually much too faint to see. But when these ions get hit by moonlight, they capture and re-emit blue photons from the Moon. Voilà!--extra blue. SpaceWeather.com​

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on November 02

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 449 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.1 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.3 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 0158 UT Nov02
▪︎ Sunspot number: 105 (SN 116 November 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 7th.
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
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SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 03_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.7 event observed at 12:22 UTC from Region 3474 (S18W42) on November 02. This flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean.​
20231102_221748.jpg
20231102_221756.png

15 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak — the solar maximum​


Rising Sunspot numbers.

X-class flare frequency.The number of X-class flares is on the rise. There have already been 11 of these enormous flares in 2023,

Gigantic sunspot. During the build-up to solar maximum, not only do sunspots become more common but they also start to grow much larger.

Eerie airglow. Rare aurora-like phenomenon known as airglow...produced by more gradual solar radiation, which becomes more intense in the lead-up to solar maximum.

Disappearing clouds. Because increased levels of solar radiation warmed the mesosphere, meaning there is less water vapor available to form the colorful clouds like Noctilucent, or night-shining, clouds (NLCs)

Cannibal CMEs. Cannibal CMEs are created when one CME catches up to and engulfs another CME that was unleashed shortly beforehand, resulting in one massive cloud of magnetized plasma.

Detecting major solar storms on Mars.

Geomagnetic storm bombardment A geomagnetic storm is a disruption to Earth's magnetic field caused by CMEs or solar wind and four classes, from the weakest, G1, up to the most severe, G4. G3 and G4 storms can cause radio blackouts that blanket half of the planet

Thermosphere temperatures rising. Molecules of gas in the thermosphere absorb a storm's excess energy, then emit that energy as infrared radiation, cooling the thermosphere back down. But this year, because the storms are coming back to back, the gas has not had a chance to cool

Surprise solar eclipse image. During the hybrid eclipse on April 20, a group of photographers created a stunning composite image composed of hundreds of shots of the event. Their image shows the ghostly filaments of the corona, which were much larger than they expected. This is another sign that the sun is closer to solar maximum than initially thought.
bmRnWAxXfgS4AgKqfS4EKm-650-80.jpg

Towering Solar Tornado. As the sun's magnetic field becomes more tangled and unstable, the star's plasma also becomes less constrained to the surface and can often erupt without warning.

Fiery plasma waterfall. Scientists recently spotted another unusual sight on the sun's surface: a "plasma waterfall," also known as a polar crown prominence (PCP), which rose above the surface of the sun on March 9 before raining plasma back onto the star.
View attachment rMrytYoKud7kxbEDx345pm-650-80.jpg.webp

Enormous Polar Vortex. It is created when a huge tentacle of plasma remains above the sun, breaks off in the solar atmosphere and falls back toward the sun.

Butterfly Coronal Mass ejection. The "butterfly wings" appeared because the CME exploded on the sun's far side, meaning a large proportion of the blast was out of view. As a result, experts are unsure how powerful the blast really was.
boqGNWPbBH4khYTRJGj29e-650-80.gif

1 million-mile-long plasma plume. Enormous fiery column that reaches around 1 million miles (1.6 million km) above the sun's surface and traveled at a speed of around 100,000 mph (161,000 km/h).
jMAobM4vt5mMWqGM2Lfuqn-650-80.jpg


There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3472, AR3473 AR3474 AR3476, AR3477, AR3478 and new region AR3479
hmi200.jpg
Total number of sunspots has increased to 113 (43 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 85% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3474 (S17W42) has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

AR7479

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 02 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 21:23 UTC Total IMF reached 4 nT at 02:20 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.65 nT South
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on November 03

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 455 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.15 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.83 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare:
▪︎ Sunspot number: 113 (SN 105 November 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 7th.
20231102_223707.jpg
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