Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 05_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 0952 UTC on October 04 from Region 3453 (N07W29).

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3448, AR3450, AR3451 AR3452, AR3453, AR3454, AR3455, AR3456 and new region AR3457
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AR3449 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 151 (75 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On October 04 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:46 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at: 0449 UTC

POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW CME: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 7th. It left the sun on Oct. 3rd, propelled by an explosion near the sun's northeastern limb. The glancing blow, if it occurs, could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.35 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04 30 UTC on October 05

▪︎ Geospace Active (kp 4) threshold reached at 02:00 UTC
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 446 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 9.16 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.13 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2 2 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C1 at 2334 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 151 (SN 150 October 04)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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23 EXPERTS IN THE FIELDS OF SOLAR PHYSICS AND CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTRADICT THE UN’S PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC): THE SCIENCE IS NOT SETTLED


ShieldSquare Captcha

A diverse expert panel of scientists finds blaming climate change solely on greenhouse gas emissions “premature”. Their findings contradict the IPCC’s conclusion which, their study shows, is grounded in narrow and incomplete data re. the Sun’s total solar irradiance (TSI).
Most of the energy in the Earth’s atmosphere comes from the Sun. It has long been recognized that changes in the so-called “total solar irradiance” (TSI), i.e., the amount of energy emitted by the Sun, over the last few centuries, could have contributed substantially to recent climate change. However, this new study found that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) only considered a small subset of the published TSI datasets when they were assessing the role of the Sun in climate change and that this subset only included “low solar variability” datasets. As a result, the IPCC was premature in ruling out a substantial role for the Sun in recent climate change.

Willie Soon, at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES), who also has been researching sun/climate relationships at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (U.S.A.) since 1991:
“We know that the Sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth’s atmosphere. So, it always was an obvious potential contributor to recent climate change. My own research over the last 31 years into the behavior of stars that are similar to our Sun, shows that solar variability is the norm, not the exception. For this reason, the Sun’s role in recent climate change should never have been as systematically undermined as it was by the IPCC’s reports. Hopefully, this systematic review of the many unresolved and ongoing challenges and complexities of Sun/climate relationships can help the scientific community return to a more comprehensive and realistic approach to understanding climate change.”

These eminent solar physicists and climate scientists are evidence of that–many of whom have put their reputations, and in some cases their careers, on the line to share with you their ‘controversial’ findings.

 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 06_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 1913 UTC from Region 3451 (N17W07) on October 05

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3448, AR3450, AR3451 AR3452, AR3453, AR3454, AR3456, AR3457 and new regions AR3458, AR3459
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AR3455 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 155 (79 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On October 05 Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (kp5) threshold reached at 05:19 UTC solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 1350 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 2118 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 5.4 nT North
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● Current Conditions at 03 30 UTC on October 06

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 477 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 13 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.21 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2 2 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C4 at 2115 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 155 (SN 151 October 05)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 07_2023

ALL QUIET. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 18:17 UTC​

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3448, AR3450, AR3451 AR3452, AR3453, AR3454, AR3456, AR3457, AR3458, AR3459
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Total number of sunspots has decreased to 138 (49 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3451 & AR3452 have developed beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On October 06 solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s (Elevated speed at 22:35 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01:46 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.58 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04 00 UTC on October 07

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 369 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.88 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.77 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C1 at 02:32 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 138 (SN 155 October 05)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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What may be the role of the sun's companion in this process...?
From Spaceweather.com,

"
THE SUN'S MAGNETIC POLES ARE DISAPPEARING:
The sun is about to lose something important: Its magnetic poles.​


Recent measurements by NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory reveal a rapid weakening of magnetic fields in the polar regions of the sun. North and south magnetic poles are on the verge of disappearing. This will lead to a complete reversal of the sun's global magnetic field perhaps before the end of the year.

If this were happening on Earth, there were be widespread alarm. Past reversals of our planet's magnetic field have been linked to calamities ranging from sudden climate change to the extinction of Neanderthals. On the sun, it's not so bad.

"In fact, it's routine," says Todd Hoeksema, a solar physicist at Stanford University. "This happens every 11 years (more or less) when we're on the verge of Solar Maximum."

Vanishing poles and magnetic reversals have been observed around the peak of every single solar cycle since astronomers learned to measure magnetic fields on the sun. Hoeksema is the director of Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), that is observing its fifth reversal since 1980.



The last five polar field reversals observed at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (inset)​

"One thing we have learned from these decades of data is that no two polar field reversals are alike," he says.
Sometimes the transition is swift, taking only a few months for the poles to vanish and reappear on opposite ends of the sun. Sometimes it takes years, leaving the sun without magnetic poles for an extended period of time.
"Even more strange," says Hoeksema, "sometimes one pole switches before the other, leaving both poles with the same polarity for a while."
Indeed, such a scenario could be playing out now. The sun's south magnetic pole has almost completely vanished, but the north magnetic pole is still hanging on, albeit barely.
How does all this effect us on Earth? One way we feel solar field reversals is via the heliospheric current sheet:


An artist's concept of the heliospheric current sheet.​

The sun is surrounded by a wavy ring of electricity that the solar wind pulls and stretches all the way out to the edge of the Solar System. This structure is a part of the sun's magnetosphere. During field reversals, the current sheet becomes extra wavy and highly tilted. As the sun spins, we dip in and out of the steepening undulations. Passages from one side to another can cause geomagnetic storms and auroras.

Most of all, the vanishing of the poles means we're on the verge of Solar Maximum. Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger than forecasters expected, and its peak could be relatively intense. Stay tuned for updates!"


Another graph showing the sun's magnetic polar strengh variations, noticed here:
2014 was the year that bring chaos in Ukraine, 2022 was the start of Russian SMO...


 
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 08_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.2 event observed at 1806 UTC from Region 3460 (S11E35) on October 07 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​
20231007_221403.png

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3448, AR3450, AR3451 AR3452, AR3454, AR3456, AR3457, AR3458, AR3459 and new region AR3460
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AR3453 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 145 (55 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3451 has a beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On October 07 solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s (Elevated speed) at 23:13 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23:18 UTC

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters say there is still a chance of a glancing CME impact today, Oct. 7th. If the CME arrives, it could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.21 nT South
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 0510 UTC on October 07

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 316 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.24 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C6 at 03:40 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 145 (SN 138 October 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 09_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 0340 UTC on October 08 from Region 3460 (S10E23).


There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3451 AR3452, AR3454, AR3457, AR3458, AR3459, AR3460 and new regions AR3461, AR3462
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AR3448, AR3450 & AR3456 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 149 (59 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3451 has developed a beta-delta-class magnetic field that harbor energy for X-class flares, while AR3460 has a gamma component that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp2) for the past 24 hours. On October 08 solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 00:48 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18:39 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.21 nT North
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 0510 UTC on October 09

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 318 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 18.88 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.83 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.2 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C1 0318 UT Oct 09
▪︎ Sunspot number: 149 (SN 145 October 08)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 10_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 1911 UTC on October 09 from Region 3451 (N17W60).

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3451 AR3452, AR3454, AR3457, AR3459, AR3460, AR3461, AR3462 and new region AR3463
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AR3458 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 129 (50 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3451 has developed a beta-delta-class magnetic field that harbor energy for X-class flares, while AR3460 has a gamma component that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels to unsettled (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On October 09 solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 16:32 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15:18 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.87 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 0415 UTC on October 10

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 353 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.85 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.8 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M1.61 02:09 UTC from AR3452 (N10W63) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean
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▪︎ Sunspot number: 129 (SN 149 October 09)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 12-13
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A new study published on 09 Oct 23 has measured radiocarbon levels in partially fossilised trees on the Drouzet River.

They found a huge radiocarbon level spike 14,300 years ago, suggesting it was the result of a massive solar storm - likely the biggest identified so far.


Edouard Bard, Professor of Climate and Ocean Evolution at the Collège de France and CEREGE, and lead author of the study, said: “Radiocarbon is constantly being produced in the upper atmosphere through a chain of reactions initiated by cosmic rays. Recently, scientists have found that extreme solar events including solar flares and coronal mass ejections can also create short-term bursts of energetic particles which are preserved as huge spikes in radiocarbon production occurring over the course of just a single year.”

The researchers say that the occurrence of similar massive solar storms today could be catastrophic for modern technological society, potentially wiping out telecommunications, satellite systems, and electricity grids - and costing us billions of pounds. They warn that it is critical to understand the future risks of events like this, to enable us to prepare, build resilience into our communications and energy systems and shield them from potential damage.

Tim Heaton, Professor of Applied Statistics in the School of Mathematics at the University of Leeds, said: “Extreme solar storms could have huge impacts on Earth. Such superstorms could permanently damage the transformers in our electricity grids, resulting in huge and widespread blackouts lasting months. They could also result in permanent damage to the satellites that we all rely on for navigation and telecommunication, leaving them unusable. They would also create severe radiation risks to astronauts.”

Nine such extreme solar storms – known as Miyake Events – have now been identified as having occurred over the last 15,000 years. The most recent confirmed Miyake Events occurred in 993 AD and 774 AD. This newly identified 14,300-year-old storm is, however, the largest that has ever been found – roughly twice the size of these two.

The exact nature of these Miyake Events remains very poorly understood as they have never been directly observed instrumentally. They highlight that we still have much to learn about the behavior of the Sun and the dangers it poses to society on Earth. We do not know what causes such extreme solar storms to occur, how frequently they might occur, or if we can somehow predict them.

The largest, directly-observed, solar storm occurred in 1859 and is known as the Carrington Event. It caused massive disruption on Earth – destroying telegraph machines and creating a night-time aurora so bright that birds began to sing, believing the Sun had begun to rise. However, the Miyake Events (including the newly discovered 14,300-year-old storm) would have been a staggering entire order of magnitude greater in size.
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 11_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.3 event observed at 1217 UTC on October 10 from Region 3452 (N09W80) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean​
20231010_221616.jpg
20231010_221610.png

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3451 AR3452, AR3454, AR3460, AR3461, AR3462, AR3463 and new region
AR3464
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AR3457 & AR3459 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 120 (40 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3451 continues with a beta-delta class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares, while AR3460 has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.
DELTA SUNSPOT' FACES EARTH: Sunspots are giant islands of magnetism floating on the surface of the sun. Usually their magnetic poles are well separated, plus (+) and minus (-) far apart. However, there is a sunspot now facing Earth with multiple poles mixed up and jostling together:​

The magnetic classification of AR3460 is 'beta-gamma-delta.'​
This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the magnetic architecture of sunspot AR3460. It has many magnetic poles with + and - pressed together in close proximity. This could lead to magnetic reconnection and a strong, Earth-directed solar flare. SpaceWeather.com​
● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On October 10 solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s (Normal speed) at 2007 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 0929 UTC​

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters say that a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) could hit Earth later today. CIRs are shock-like transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. Think of them as mini-CMEs. If this one arrives as predicted, Arctic sky watchers might witness an outburst of lights tonight. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.74 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 0438 UTC on October 11

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 274 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.96 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.64 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.5 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0112 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 120 (SN 139 October 10)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 12-13
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An eclipse this Saturday - could add some cosmic spice to the mix.

Ah yes, it's not just Friday the 13th and eclipse Saturday. We have a solar wind stream from a coronal hole whose energy can influence weather phenomena and an unstable sunspot facing the planet with energy for X-class flare. And as cherry on the cake Clif High talking about the "Big Event" he detected in his analysis of Internet metadata.


Halloween seems to have come early​
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 12_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 0937 UTC on October 11 from Region 3451 (N16W86).

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3451 AR3452, AR3454, AR3460, AR3461, AR3462, AR3463, AR3464 and new regions AR3465, AR3466
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Total number of sunspots has increased to 149 (48 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3451 and AR3460 have lost their delta component but remain with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares as does the AR3464 region which has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On October 11 solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s (Elevated speed) at 10:55 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02:44 UTC
Aurora Oval Bz: -1.99 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on October 12

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 300 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.56 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.49 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C9 0354 UT Oct12
▪︎ Sunspot number: 149 (SN 120 October 11)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 12-13
SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A stream of solar wind is expected to reach Earth later today, Oct. 12th. The gaseous material is flowing ~500 km/s from a narrow hole in the sun's atmosphere. Its arrival could spark geomagnetic unrest and auroras around the Arctic Circle. SpaceWeather.com
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT OCTOBER 13_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04:58 UTC on October 12 from Region 3451 located on the farside.
20231012_215547.jpg
There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3454, AR3460, AR3461, AR3462, AR3463, AR3464, AR3465, AR3466
hmi200.gif
AR3451 & AR3452 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 126 (46 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3460 & AR3464 continue with beta-gamma magnetic fields harboring energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On October 12 solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s (Normal speed) at 16:46 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 2003 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -5.02 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on October 13

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 340 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.0 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 10.22 nT

▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0320 UT Oct13
▪︎ Sunspot number: 126 (SN 149 October 12)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 12-13
SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A stream of solar wind is expected to reach Earth later today, Oct. 12th. The gaseous material is flowing ~500 km/s from a narrow hole in the sun's atmosphere. Its arrival could spark geomagnetic unrest and auroras around the Arctic Circle. SpaceWeather.com
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