Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 15_2023

THE SUN IS AWAKENING. Sun activity is back to moderate with the production of 3 M-class flares in the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.4 event observed at 21:26 UTC on September 14 from Region 3429 (N10E04) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean



Other M-class flares

● M1.4 at 07:45 UTC from AR3429 It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.9 at 19:31 UTC from AR3429 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions: AR3423, AR3425, AR3429, AR343O, AR3431, AR3433

Total number of sunspots has increased to 110 (50 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On September 14 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 14:33 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17:50 UTC.

A CME IS COMING: Earlier today (~0700 UT), a magnetic filament connecting sunspots AR3423 and AR3425 erupted. The blast hurled a CME (movie) into space near the edge of the Earth-strike zone. A glancing blow on Sept. 17th could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms with auroras in northern-tier US states. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 6.01 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on September 14

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 453 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.22 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 7.72 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.2% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare Cu at 03:09 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 110 (SN 109 September 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 16_2023

DANGEROUS SUNSPOT. Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.7 event observed at 22:29 UTC from Region 3429 (N10E05). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702859613425541332

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot AR3429 is crackling with M-class solar flares. This interest-compressed movie from Sept. 15th shows extreme ultraviolet flashes from four eruptions, all Earth-directed:​

​

Pulses of radiation from this sunspot are ionizing the top of Earth's atmosphere, creating a rolling series of shortwave radio blackouts over all longitudes of our planet. Ham radio operators, pilots and mariners may notice occasional loss of signal, especially at frequencies below 20 MHz.​

So far none of the explosions has hurled a CME toward Earth. They've all been too brief to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. However, there is a huge magnetic filament snaking around the sunspot group. If continued flaring destabilizes the filament, it could erupt and hurl significant debris in our direction. Stay tuned. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702865189828169778

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions: AR3423, AR3425, AR3429, AR343O, AR3431, AR3433 and new region AR3434

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 96 (37 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

Sunspot AR3429 has a mixed-polarity beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On September 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 21:03 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:00 UTC

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 17th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on Sept. 14th by the eruption of a magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.8 nT South

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on September 16

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 416.5 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.08 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 4.66 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.5% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M2.8 at 00:50 UTC from AR3429 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702860839265464655

▪︎ Sunspot number: 96 (SN 110 September 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 17_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.3 event observed at 05:38 UTC on September 16 from Region 3429 (N11W22). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Malaysia.​

KABOOM! A huge filament eruption! The long transequatorial filament we have been observing finally provided a big eruption, hurling ejecta into space. This started at around 20 UTC on September 15 and ended at 9 UTC on September 16, 2023. We saw an enormous coronal mass ejection (CME) during the event. Due to its location, there is a good chance that a portion of the ejecta is coming our way, but we need to wait to hear what the specialists say. Sun activity is picking up with three M flares from our flaring hero of the week, sunspot AR3429. Turning our eyes to the northeast limb (edge), there is an active region still on the far side that has been quite active, releasing fiery prominences during the past day. Will this region get still more active? Stay with us for more sun news. EarthSky.org​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703233704900907066

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703084578225762792

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk:AR3425, AR3429, AR343O, AR3433, AR3434

AR3423 and AR3431are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 88 (28 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

Sunspot AR3429 has lost its delta component but continues with a mixed-polarity beta-gamma class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On September 16 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 02:23 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02:07 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.63 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on September 17

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 506 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 14.5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 7.5 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.5% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C1 at 22:34 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 88 (SN 96 September 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 18_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16:04 UTC from Region 3435 (N10E60).

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3425, AR3429,
AR3431, AR3433, and new regions AR3435, AR3436

AR343O and AR3434 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 94 (37 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703589270043140443

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. On September 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 04:24 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04:12 UTC Active Conditions (kp 4) threshold reached at 05:59 UTC

ONE CME JUST HIT EARTH... As predicted, a CME grazed Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 17th (0246 UT). Although its weak impact did not spark a full-fledged geomagnetic storm, the CME did create some auroras. Michele Sadauskas photographed the display from Glidden, Wisconsin:​

​

"I headed out as soon as I received a text alert that a CME was about to hit," says Sadauskas. "I was pleasantly suprised to see the auroras. This is a 5-image panorama shot on a Canon R, with a 35mm Sigma Art lens, at 6400 iso, f1.8, 8 seconds." SpaceWeather.com​

AND ANOTHER CME IS COMING: A huge magnetic filament erupted on Sept. 16th (movie), hurling a CME almost directly toward Earth:​

​

NOAA and NASA models agree that the CME should hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 19th. NOAA says early on the 19th, NASA says late, which gives a sense of the uncertainties in their respective forecasts.​

The impact could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms. During a similar G2 storm on Sept. 12th, auroras were photographed in multiple US states as far south as Colorado and Missouri. It could happen again this week.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703408604542357828

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.3 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05 11 UTC on September 18

▪︎ Minor G1 Geomagnetic storm in progress(kp 5) threshold reached at 02:59 UTC
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 422.6 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6.67 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 9.87 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.7% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C1 at 01:04 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 94 (SN 88 September 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 19_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10:41 UTC from Region 3435 (N09E56).​

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3425, AR3429, AR3433, AR3435, AR3436 and new regions AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440

AR3431 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 139 (49 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On September 18 Total IMF reached 22 nT at 15:40 UTC. CME impact was detected at 16:00 UTC with a solar wind speed of 554 km/s then Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 16:17 UTC Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 17:59 UTC Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) threshold reached at 02:16 UTC on September 19​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS:
Arriving a day earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 18th. The fast moving storm cloud triggered a G2-class geomagnetic storm, in progress now. During G2 storms, auroras are frequently seen in northern tier US states. Indeed, here is the current view from Minnesota:​

​

"This is just a quick shot now," says photographer David Glaser of Castle Danger, MN. "I'm still enjoying the show."

Sky watchers should remain alert for more auroras in the hours ahead. During a similar G2 storm on Sept. 12th, auroras were photographed in multiple US states as far south as Colorado and Missouri. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.48 nT South

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703919837976621333

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703976020255080654

● Current Conditions at 04 10 UTC on September 19

▪︎ Moderate G2 Geomagnetic storm in progress (kp 6) threshold reached at 03:29 UTC

▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 591 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 6.92 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M1.1 at 04:15 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia


▪︎ Sunspot number: 139 (SN 94 September 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 20_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 20:14 UTC from Region 3435 (N09E42) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central Pacific Ocean



There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3425, AR3429, AR3433, AR3435, AR3436, AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440 and new region AR3441

Total number of sunspots has increased to 143 (43 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR3435 just unleashed a strong M4-class solar flare: movie. Even stronger explosions may be in the offing. The sunspot has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-flares. Any explosions today will be geoeffective as the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com

AR3436 and AR3438 have developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. On September 19 Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) threshold reached at 05:59 UTC Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 08:33 UTC Geomagnetic storm subsided around 13:30 to Minor storm level G1 Total IMF reached 17 nT at 22:04 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.9 nT North

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704226187978150115

● Current Conditions at 04 15 UTC on September 20

▪︎ Geospace active (kp 4)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 529 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.05 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 5.37 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 7.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C9 at 2237 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 143 (SN 139 September 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

ALMOST X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE

A M8.2 solar flare from AR3435 ocurred at 14:19 UTC it caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Central Atlantic Ocean



INTENSIFYING FLARE ACTIVITY: Flare activity from big sunspot AR3435 is intensifying. A few hours ago, it almost crossed the X-threshold with this M8-class explosion:

​

A flash of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic ocean: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal for as much as 30 minutes after 1419 UT. More flares are in the offing as this active sunspot turns toward Earth.

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

IS THE SUN BUILDING UP TO AN X FLARE? So close, but yet so far! Sunspot region AR3435 produced another big flare. This time it was an M8 event (just 20% short of being an X!). In the last 24 hours we have had M1, M2, M4 and M8 flares form this region, will this buildup continue?​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704520162542494024

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 20_2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 14:19 UTC from Region 3435 (N09E29)

INTENSIFYING FLARE ACTIVITY: Flare activity from big sunspot AR3435 is intensifying. A few hours ago, it almost crossed the X-threshold with this M8-class explosion:

​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703898725905584243

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3429, AR3433, AR3435, AR3436 AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440, AR3441 and new region AR3442

AR3425 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 159 (48 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. Large sunspot AR3435 poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Currently this region has a beta-gamma magnetic field

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On September 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 2211 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 0548 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704571825471242486

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704419808685728017

POSSIBLE CME NEAR-MISS THIS WEEKEND: Yesterday's M8-class solar flare from sunspot AR3435 (movie) hurled a CME into space. It's going to barely miss Earth, passing south of our planet during the late hours of Sept. 23th. Arctic sky watchers *might* see an auroral glow resulting from the near-miss. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.57 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05 00 UTC on September 21

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 416 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.02 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 1.17 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 7.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare C2 at 2321 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 159 (SN 143 September 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Adobe]

An interesting documentary is coming up. I’ll post the trailer below. Hopefully it fits in this thread.

What happens when the gird goes down? “30 days of chaos until we end up back in the stone age".

Its gov hype with the help of a movie-star for us to be more afraid and how we must protect ourselves from the hackers / gov dissenters, etc. BUT, it does, both with the Dennis Quaid interview, and in the trailer discus solar flares, EMP’s and the Carrington event of 1889. Funny in both the interview and the trailer they state that there is an easy fix that can be put in place, but they never mention just what that easy fix is. Just wait for the document to come out, I guess?

(IMO we should be prepared for loss of the grid for weeks, months, or gone for good. And with electricity loss, for most of us, that shuts off water supply also.) A neighbor came over recently and asked, what are we going to do when TSHTF? The second thing I brought up was “water” the whole town will be looking for water. After one day, there will be no showers and no toilets. Will be digging crappers over there in the trees, and we need to know how deep the water table is here to see if digging a well is possible.

Both videos are super short. Interview 6 minutes, and the trailer 2 minutes.

Interview:

Trailer:

 

[Adobe]

Opps! The Carrington Event was 1859

 

[Puma]

ANOTHER ALMOST-X FLARE: Sunspot AR3435 erupted again today (Sept. 21 @ 1254 UT), producing an M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultravolet flash:

​

Radiation from the flare produced a shortwave radio blackout mainly over the Atlantic Ocean: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below ~20 MHz.

Moderate R2 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


The explosion might have produced an Earth-directed CME. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs.

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

The active region is now almost directly facing Earth and in a good spot for Earth directed eruptions.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704864145093398785

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 22_2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 1254 UTC from Region 3435 (N08E16).​

ANOTHER ALMOST-X FLARE: Sunspot AR3435 erupted again today (Sept. 21 @ 1254 UT), producing an M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultravolet flash:​

(UPDATE):

​

New data from SOHO coronagraphs seem to show a faint Earth-directed CME emerging from the blast site: movie. If so, it will likely reach Earth on Sept. 24th. Stay tuned for confirmation as more data become available. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704927437425938526

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705070618327011330

There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3433, AR3435, AR3436 AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440, AR3441, AR3442 and new regions AR3443, AR3444

AR3429 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 160 (49 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Large sunspot AR3435 poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Currently this region has a beta-delta magnetic field.

AR3441 and AR3442 possess beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On September 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 2119 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 0709 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Yesterday's M8-class solar flare from sunspot AR3435 (movie) hurled a CME into space. NOAA analysts believe it could graze Earth's magnetic field and cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm on Sept. 23rd. A second CME might be following close behind as a result of today's M9-class flare, described below. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.48 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04 10 UTC on September 22

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 394 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 4.12 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 6.5 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M1.2 at 0336 UTC from AR3435 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean



▪︎ Sunspot number: 160 (SN 159 September 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 23_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.5 event observed at 1715 UTC from Region 3443 (N28W40). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America​

There are currently 12 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3433, AR3435, AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440, AR3441, AR3442, AR3443, AR3444 and new regions AR3445, AR3446

AR3436 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 184 (64 of these are grouped into 12 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. AR3443 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On September 22 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 20:42 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20:06 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Over the past few days, a series of M-class solar flares may have hurled multiple CMEs toward Earth. In fact, so many CMEs have left the sun since Sept. 20th, analysts are having trouble sorting them out. Somewhere between two and four appear capable of grazing Earth's magnetic field between Sept. 23rd and Sept. 25th. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on all those days. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.36 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05 10 UTC on September 23
▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 398 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.45 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 4.93 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M1.9 at 23:00 UTC from AR3435 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


▪︎ Sunspot number: 184 (SN 160 September 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT SEPTEMBER 24_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.5 event observed at 20:43 UTC from Region 3436 currently on the far side. It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705767838466584866

There are currently 12 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3433, AR3435, AR3437, AR3438, AR3439, AR3440, AR3441, AR3442, AR3443, AR3444, AR3445, AR3446

Total number of sunspots has increased to 198 (77 of these are grouped into 12 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

AR3443 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares.

AR3441 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On September 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 2 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10:08 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -4.22 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04 10 UTC on September 24

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 314 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.14 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF
Bt: 4.58 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare M4.4 at 03:28 UTC from AR3445 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Oceanía


▪︎ Sunspot number: 198 (SN 184 September 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

According to Spaceweather.com, there was an M4.4 flare at 3:28 GMT, no precisions for its origin yet: