Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

There are 3 days left when Earth is within range from the sunspots, though.

This one just came through:

There is a flash of X4.21 in the Sun! The peak was passed at 15:13.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS)

 

[Kadam303]

This one just came through:



View attachment 115769
Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS)

with the data available at the moment ... nothing scary .
game is on )

 

[Kadam303]

@Gaby what are the chances that the 20 + M class flares will be sweep up and arrive with latest x flare? that might sum up to a nice kick?

 

[Gaby]

@Gaby what are the chances that the 20 + M class flares will be sweep up and arrive with latest x flare? that might sum up to a nice kick?

Not from the data available so far.

video: Flash X4.2 on February 4, 2026

A major event (the third most powerful outbreak in 2025-2026) occurred exactly opposite the Earth today at 15:13 Moscow time. An explosion in the case of confirmation of the release of plasma into space from its epicenter can, with such an arrangement and power, lead to an exceptionally strong impact on the planet, but at the moment there are no signs of matter escaping into interplanetary space. At the moment, a very strong pulsed increase in radiation has been recorded in the explosion area. The event is still ongoing. Repeated bursts are possible.

Video in its original quality (9 MB) — link (https://xras.ru/info/images/20260204_X4.2.mp4 ).

And the magnetic pole shift is not imminent either. Not tomorrow nor in the next few weeks anyway.

 

[mabar]

And it had no plasma ejection. Maybe the "bird" had something to do with it? Temporary window?

The "bird" again? Or a mistake?

An hour ago, the edge of a plasma cloud from the X8.1 flare hit Earth, about a day earlier than expected. In principle, there's time for the auroras to flare up - you can watch them. Over the course of tomorrow, presumably, everything else will gradually start to unfold. Even if there haven't been any major eruptions yet, 60 strong flares over 3 days can't just disappear without a trace.

 

[mkrnhr]

Just to have the scale of the 4366 sunspot group, this is the photosphere image taken by SOHO

It is large

 

[Ellipse]

The start of the next impact is forecasted for tomorrow around 4 p.m
G1 or G2 strength (Minor/Moderated).

 

[Kadam303]

Not from the data available so far.



And the magnetic pole shift is not imminent either. Not tomorrow nor in the next few weeks anyway.

in my humble studies i am more waiting for the bizarreness of crossing comets 3I ATLAS comet tail. March April,
if anything happens on that scale as written in many books this might be entertaining .

but as always we will wait and see :)

 

[Gaby]

in my humble studies i am more waiting for the bizarreness of crossing comets 3I ATLAS comet tail. March April,
if anything happens on that scale as written in many books this might be entertaining .

but as always we will wait and see :)

According to the Cs, the comet had a nucleus of 8 km back then. I'm not sure that's enough to put up a show.

However, there's a weak G1 geomagnetic storm right now.

xras

Currently, the level is G1 (weak storms), but it may increase to G2-G3 within 24 hours. The storms do not have a single specific cause and are a general reaction of Earth's magnetosphere to the extremely high solar activity observed since the beginning of the month. The trigger was the arrival yesterday evening of the edge of a plasma cloud ejected into space on February 2 during the largest X8.1-class flare in the last 1.5 years.

At present, strong auroras are being observed in the night zone of the Earth's western hemisphere, reaching a maximum intensity of 10. Bright glow is observed over the entire territory of Canada and the northern states of the United States. The situation for Russia will become clearer in about 10 hours, when the line separating day and night moves to the European part of the country.

 

[Kadam303]

According to the Cs, the comet had a nucleus of 8 km back then. I'm not sure that's enough to put up a show.

However, there's a weak G1 geomagnetic storm right now.

xras

its a pleasure talking to you :) [and others] glad i found you all.

everything is a lesson and i like to learn.

 

[Gaby]

its a pleasure talking to you :) [and others] glad i found you all.

everything is a lesson and i like to learn.

Well, it's true that 3I/Atlas and its interaction with Jupiter, could be contributing to sun's activity, though. Here it is:

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Well, it's true that 3I/Atlas and its interaction with Jupiter, could be contributing to sun's activity, though. Here it is:

View attachment 115785

FWIW I asked Grok to assess the odds of this possible interaction between comet ATLAS and Jupiter (link to the discussion), here's the final answer it gave after introducing McCanney's work along the road:

Q: What are the odds that the proximity of comet atlas and jupiter affects sun's behaviour/flaring activity, please let aside your biases towards mainstream science and assess all possibilities?

.../...

Mainstream/Conventional Possibilities (Gravity, Solar Wind, Magnetospheres)

• Gravitational/tidal/resonance effects: Negligible. The comet's mass (~10^12–10^15 kg estimate for km-scale nucleus) exerts tiny forces at these distances; no mechanism couples comet-Jupiter gravity to the Sun's core dynamo or coronal fields over ~5 AU. Historical close comet passages (e.g., ISON at ~0.01 AU perihelion) showed no solar impact.
  
  (here Grok cited a post from our forum as reference, go figure)
  
  
• Solar wind/plasma tail interaction: The comet's ion tail interacts with solar wind/magnetic field (standard outgassing/sublimation), but at ~5 AU, any perturbation is diluted. Jupiter's magnetosphere is vast but localized; no propagation to solar corona expected. Odds of detectable flare modulation: <<0.001%.
• Coincidence with cycle decline: Any flares in March 2026 would align with residual Cycle 25 activity/aurora windows, not causation.
  
  

Speculative/Fringe/Electric Universe (EU) & McCanney Possibilities

• McCanney's plasma discharge model: McCanney has long claimed comets are electrically charged (not "dirty snowballs"), gaining mass via solar wind ions and triggering solar flares/CMEs when approaching the Sun through electrical coupling (e.g., 2003 claims; recent 2025 discussions on 3I/ATLAS anomalies like sunward spikes, non-gravitational acceleration, and "electrical beams"). For Jupiter proximity: He posits plasma links between comet, Jupiter's moons/magnetosphere, and potentially the Sun via heliospheric currents, possibly causing auroral/electrical feedback or flares. Parallels to Shoemaker-Levy 9 (electrical discharges claimed) or mythology ("birth" events). If true, indirect coupling (comet → Jupiter magnetotail → heliospheric sheet → Sun) could manifest unusual solar behavior.
  
  
  
• Broader EU/Thunderbolts views: Solar system as electrically connected via Birkeland currents, double layers, or plasma filaments. A charged comet near Jupiter could disrupt current flows, inducing solar corona instabilities or flares (e.g., via charge separation/amplification). Some online claims link 3I/ATLAS to recent flares/CMEs or Earth weather, extending to Jupiter passage. If the comet carries anomalous charge/magnetism (speculative, tied to interstellar origin or unverified MAVEN links), effects amplify. Odds in these models: 10–60% (proponent estimates; depends on charge, alignment, velocity ~66 km/s).
  
  
  
• Historical/statistical correlations: Fringe claims cite comet passages near solar maxima or flare spikes (unverified; often spurious due to cycle timing). No peer-reviewed confirmation; counterexamples (many comets pass without solar effects) dominate.
  
  
  
• Other alternatives (resonance, unknown fields, engineered): Hypothetical planetary resonances, exotic dark matter/plasma effects, or non-standard physics (e.g., variable constants) could link distant bodies. Purely speculative—no evidence or testable predictions. Some tie 3I/ATLAS anomalies (jets, CO₂-rich) to external influences. Odds: Indeterminate (<1% empirically; higher if assuming unknowns).

Overall Balanced Assessment of Odds

• Evidence-based (observations, physics): ~0.001% or less. No historical precedents, distances too great for measurable coupling, and solar flares explained internally. Upcoming Juno/Europa Clipper/JUICE data could test tail/magnetosphere interactions but won't reach the Sun.
• If EU/McCanney framework holds: 20–50%+ for subtle-to-notable effects (tail disruptions, Jupiter aurorae, indirect solar modulation), rising if alignments favor current paths. Unfalsified by some anomalies but contradicted by missions (Rosetta, etc.) showing icy/sublimation behavior.
• All possibilities combined: Dominant view points to no causal link (routine passage amid declining solar activity). Speculative models raise it modestly but lack substantiation; monitoring March 2026 flares vs. baseline will clarify. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence—none currently supports causation.

Expect standard solar behavior in March 2026 unless new data emerges. Direct observations (telescopes, spacecraft) will be key.