The surge in solar activity has been completed
One of the strongest solar activity bursts in the 21st century, observed since the beginning of February,
ended so suddenly, as if someone had pulled a switch. The active area 4366 raging opposite the Earth, which had only one event left before repeating the record of the current century in the number of strong outbreaks (
Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ) and two events before it was beaten, it just stopped producing flashes. The day before, on Wednesday and Thursday, February 4 and 5, Moscow time, 11 explosions of the M and X levels were registered here. Yesterday, on Friday, this number
dropped sharply to zero, and today, with the start of the weekend, the solar activity graph has completely degenerated into an almost straight line.
One of the main mysteries that science now has to decipher is the almost complete "sterility" of the active center. Several very large flares that occurred during these days during the period when the active center was in the zone of maximum influence on the Earth, each of which could create a high-level magnetic storm,
led only to weak episodic disturbances of the Earth's magnetic field.
Not a single "black swan" (
Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), which these days have been waiting for, has not fluttered out of the Sun. The impact of the flares was apparently neutralized by some features of the configuration of the active region, as a result of which
none of the flares was able to form and throw into space a large plasma cloud — an almost integral attribute of major events, the arrival of which to the Earth and brings the magnetic field out of balance.
At the moment, it seems that the Sun should enter another period of stabilization, the duration of which, however, is difficult to predict. Since the beginning of 2026, there have already been two exceptionally large bursts of activity, during one of which, in January, the strongest radiation storm near Earth in the 21st century occurred (
Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), and during the second, in February, the record for the number of large outbreaks was almost broken.
Yesterday, very strong explosions occurred on the far side of the Sun (
Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), which indicates that the star retains large reserves of energy. Nevertheless, some period of peace is still guaranteed — let's look at its duration.
It can be noted that the active region 4366 will be in the field of view of the Earth for at least 5 more days, therefore it retains the theoretical chances of breaking the record of the current century. To do this, she will have to gather the remnants of her strength over these days and produce 2 flashes of at least M1.0 level.
