Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

The level of calmness in perspective.

The level of solar activity decreased to the lowest values in 3.5 years

The average monthly number of sunspots, which has been consistently measured since 1749 and is the main indicator of the level of solar activity, decreased in the first two months of 2026 to 78.2. This is the lowest figure since August 2022, when the value of 74.6 was recorded. Higher indices were recorded in all subsequent months, and at the peak of the cycle, in August 2024, the value of 216 was reached, which became the highest in the last 20 years.

Currently, the global solar activity is falling significantly faster than predicted. The predicted value for February was 114.8 (NOAA forecast). At the same time, the average monthly number of spots should have steadily dropped below 80 no earlier than the middle of 2027. For this reason, the February decline is still considered as a random fluctuation. A similar situation was observed in May 2025, when the cycle plummeted to 78.5 (very close to the current level), but then returned to the average forecast trajectory. The current month should be indicative in this regard. So far, for the first 10 days of March, the average value has been 82, which roughly corresponds to the low level of February.

Daily observations of the Sun in recent weeks confirm its extremely weak activity. A very low rate of flares is recorded on the star, and there is also a significant lack of energy for active processes. This process, as already noted, is still considered temporary, but no one can say at the moment how long it will take and when the star will accumulate the strength to push off from the bottom.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )