Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

The level of calmness in perspective.

The level of solar activity decreased to the lowest values in 3.5 years

The average monthly number of sunspots, which has been consistently measured since 1749 and is the main indicator of the level of solar activity, decreased in the first two months of 2026 to 78.2. This is the lowest figure since August 2022, when the value of 74.6 was recorded. Higher indices were recorded in all subsequent months, and at the peak of the cycle, in August 2024, the value of 216 was reached, which became the highest in the last 20 years.

Currently, the global solar activity is falling significantly faster than predicted. The predicted value for February was 114.8 (NOAA forecast). At the same time, the average monthly number of spots should have steadily dropped below 80 no earlier than the middle of 2027. For this reason, the February decline is still considered as a random fluctuation. A similar situation was observed in May 2025, when the cycle plummeted to 78.5 (very close to the current level), but then returned to the average forecast trajectory. The current month should be indicative in this regard. So far, for the first 10 days of March, the average value has been 82, which roughly corresponds to the low level of February.

Daily observations of the Sun in recent weeks confirm its extremely weak activity. A very low rate of flares is recorded on the star, and there is also a significant lack of energy for active processes. This process, as already noted, is still considered temporary, but no one can say at the moment how long it will take and when the star will accumulate the strength to push off from the bottom.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )

 

[Gaby]

Despite predicted intense auroras from a probable G1-G2 geomagnetic storm (to be confirmed later), which would be due to relatively big coronal holes, it remains relatively calm. It's a solar minimum of some sort. The only flare was an "M" one on the side of the sun, so it won't impact Earth.

Comet MAPS on its way, though. We'll see.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (http://t.me/lpixras )

A long series of geomagnetic disturbances is expected to begin today due to a coronal hole formed in the Sun.

During the day, according to the forecast, an increase in the speed of the incoming solar wind stream is expected. Following this, the geomagnetic indexes should start to grow. The source of the expected disturbances is clearly visible in the Sun. This is a coronal hole of quite noticeable size and not quite typical shape — it looks more like a giant rift stretching from the south to the north pole of the Sun than the more familiar outlines of butterflies and circles (yes, in general, you just won't see anything in the Sun). As in most such cases, the hole is a long-lived formation and a month ago, during the last solar revolution, it already passed through the disk, then resembling a dragon (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ). However, there were also different opinions on the latter.

During the last passage, the event caused medium-level magnetic storms in the G1-G2 range (https://xras.ru/image/kp_RAL5_20260216.png ) (on a 5-point scale). Since the shape and size of the structure have not changed much, it would not be a big mistake to expect a similar level this time. The models show the possibility of the first storms today closer to midnight (https://xras.ru/image/kpf_RAL5_20260313.png ). If this forecast comes true, then the probability of intense auroras forming today will be quite high, although to speak about it confidently, it is still worth waiting for the onset of disturbances.

***

For the first time in 3 weeks, a strong flare occurred on the Sun.

Information has been received about an M-class solar flare that has just been registered. The maximum radiation was reached at 12:55 Moscow time. The duration of the flash was about 20 minutes.

The event took place against the background of a deep decline in activity that has been going on for almost a month and is of interest mainly for this reason. The last time an outbreak of this class was registered was on February 25 (the score was then M2.3). The score of the event was slightly lower — M1.2. Apart from the current situation of deep solar depression, the event is quite ordinary, as it belongs to the lowest limit of the M-class. In addition, the position of the center of the flare at the edge of the solar disk (and the telescope data has already been received) excludes the impact on the Earth. There are no harbingers that the event may trigger the Sun's exit from the current local minimum. The explosion is almost certainly a single and relatively random one.

In order not to write a separate message, let's say that the first plasma streams associated with the coronal hole came to Earth. Weak disturbances are already being observed (https://xras.ru/image/kp_RAL5_20260313.png ). In this situation, the forecast for reaching the level of magnetic storms by the end of the day looks quite realistic.

 

[Gaby]

Incoming energies from a geomagnetic storm G1-G2 just like predicted yesterday.

The first long-lasting magnetic storm of spring is taking place on Earth

Starting approximately from midnight Moscow time, a planetary magnetic storm is registered. The event is associated with a sharp increase in the speed of the solar wind in the vicinity of the Earth, which, in turn, is caused by a coronal hole in the Sun. The storm is extremely stable — for the entire 9 hours that it lasts, the index is at the same level of G1.7, corresponding to the average event.

The speed of the solar wind is currently at about 700 km/s compared to the usual 300-400 km/s, that is, increased by 2 times (https://xras.ru/image/swv_RAL5_20260314.png ) and shows no signs of decline. For this reason, geomagnetic disturbances will continue (however, they were initially predicted for 2-3 days), although at the moment there are signs of a break. There may be a temporary stabilization of the situation in the coming hours.

Storms of this level can affect energy systems and the propagation of radio waves at high latitudes. The impact is weak in the middle and southern parts of the country.

This is the second magnetic storm in March, but the first significant one. The previous one was on the 4th and looked pretty pathetic then (https://xras.ru/image/kp_RAL5_20260304.png ) — a short episode that was not supposed to be related to any external reasons at all. In total, 17 days with magnetic storms have already been registered in 2026 (23%). Last year, which was marked as the most geomagnetically active in a decade (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), there were 19% of such events. In other words, the year is still on a record schedule.

Against the background of the storm, intense auroras of level 8-9 on a 10-point scale were observed from 3 to 7 a.m. in Moscow (https://xras.ru/image/ai_RAL5_20260314.png ), but by that time the center of the auroral oval was already in Europe and Canada. Theoretically, the outgoing tail of the aurora zone could be captured in the north-west of the country.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (http://t.me/lpixras )

All the bolded parts speak of a weaker geomagnetic field, with no signs of a break.