Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

Of interest, the aurora intensity coming from big cities which are not favorable to seeing this phenomenon. There was nothing supra-ordinary made by the sun. Overall, it seems to me that it's from this end (Earth) that favored all of this.

The geomagnetic situation is showing signs of stabilizing

After two days of intense magnetic storms, the geomagnetic situation has begun to show signs of steady stabilization. Currently, the interplanetary magnetic field induction has dropped sharply; its high value was the main factor causing geomagnetic indices to move from the green to the red zone. Elevated solar wind speeds still persist, but this factor alone now has only a limited impact.

The recent storm had two peaks: from March 20 to 21 and from March 22 to 23, reaching a strong G3 level in both cases. Each peak resulted in very intense auroras, the lower limit of which, according to some reports, extended to latitudes of about 50 degrees. A significant number of reports came from major cities, despite the strong artificial light typically present in such places. On the night from Sunday to Monday, the aurora was even photographed in Moscow on several occasions.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru)

 

[Ellipse]

It started a bit again but it looks like things are calming down. It was intense.

 

[Gaby]

It started a bit again but it looks like things are calming down. It was intense.

Yeah, and it looks like it was favored also from "Earth's end", i.e. field is weaker.

Here's an update for today:

Space weather on March 24, 2026 — outraged

During the day, there were residual spikes from the geomagnetic event that began last weekend. At the moment, the speed of the solar wind remains elevated (about 600 km/s versus the typical 300-400 km/s). The temperature is slightly elevated. The remaining parameters (density and magnetic field) returned to normal. This still retains the potential for minor disturbances.

In terms of flare activity, there are several medium-sized groups of spots on the Sun, but with minimal signs of "life". This is enough so that the background level of hard radiation from the Sun does not fall too low, but no more. There are no flashes, in fact.

In general, there is a feeling that the current situation (neither here nor there) will freeze for the whole week.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )

 

[Gaby]

It was prolonged, for sure.

The geomagnetic storm, which lasted nearly a week, has ended

A fairly prolonged surge in geomagnetic activity, which began on March 20 (last Friday), appears to have finally come to an end. The day before yesterday, the event had a brief false finish when solar wind parameters seemed to start dropping rapidly, but ultimately remained at elevated levels for another two days.

The event was a combination of the effects of a coronal hole and several medium-sized plasma clouds reaching the planet, and it had been predicted in advance. Its expected intensity was also reported to be quite significant—the strongest in two months (which turned out to be the case)—as well as a duration of about a week (which again roughly matched reality). There was a relatively small error in the timing of the disturbances’ onset—they began about half a day late, resulting in a minor surge of activity not on the Sun, but in forums and chat rooms. []

At this moment, absolutely all solar wind parameters have returned to the normal range. The probability of weak surges remains, but now at the usual everyday level. Today is likely the last day when a brief echo is still possible. Starting tomorrow, the forecast is already completely green.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru)

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Nothing to worry about yet, it's far to the northeast of the sun, but an impulsive nearly M4 flare occurred on the sun this morning.

Comment from spaceweatherlive forum about this "new" sunspot AR4403:

Good M3.93 flare with a CME from this region!

A reminder that the main sunspot in this region has already seen 70+ M flares, as its the same strong blue spot that originally emerged when it became AR4366 2 full rotations ago!

This time it's already giving us a better show than last rotation when it was 4378(had no M flares), and the fact it's throwing fast CMEs with an M class is very promising! As 4366 I remember we got an X4 that barely caused a CME at all so its good to see "magnetic caging" not be an issue!

And for a few days we'll get to "see" the full farside sunspots (source):

Humanity will see the entire Sun for several days

The Solar Orbiter spacecraft, belonging to the European Space Agency and orbiting the Sun, has emerged on the opposite side of its orbit from Earth. This means that at the moment, humanity can observe the entire Sun - both its side facing Earth and the opposite one.

This geometrically precise configuration will persist for several more days, and then gradually begin to dissipate as the spacecraft starts to overtake Earth. Nevertheless, a significant portion of the solar surface invisible from Earth can still be observed for several months. By the end of spring, about 2/3 of the reverse side will still be accessible. By the end of summer, the spacecraft will finally catch up with Earth, position itself between it and the Sun, and will see the same thing as terrestrial telescopes.

As an interesting fact, it can be noted that neither the flares nor the spots observed by the spacecraft during this period will be included in the global catalogs. Only events recorded on the side facing Earth will still be entered there. Otherwise, the number of flares in the catalogs during this period would have doubled, which could subsequently lead to confusion in assessing solar activity, creating the illusion that it had briefly increased by 100%.

In the pictures: at the top - the Sun as seen from Earth (HMI telescope on SDO), at the bottom - the reverse side of the Sun as seen by Solar Orbiter (PHI instrument).

Current data from Solar Orbiter are available on the project website.

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

 

[Gaby]

The main threat here is to the Artemis mission to the moon scheduled in a few days.

There is a large plasma release in the Sun. There may be an impact on the launch of the lunar mission.

Judging by what the coronographs are sending and the X-ray profiles, a large plasma release is developing on the Sun right now. The event attracts attention, among other things, because on the night of April 1-2, the first manned flight to the Moon since 1972 is planned, in which a crew of four people will go beyond the protective effect of the Earth's magnetic field for the first time in more than half a century. Unlike near-Earth orbits, where only secondary manifestations of space weather are possible (fluctuations in the magnetic field, changes in atmospheric density, and an increase in the number of charged particles), in long-range orbits the ship finds itself right inside a cloud of solar plasma that envelops the planet for several days. In this regard, solar activity will be monitored especially closely in the coming days. The last known case of postponing the launch of a deep space mission occurred in November last year, when NASA, according to a statement released by the agency. (NASA's ESCAPADE Launch Shifted, Now Targeting Nov. 13 ) postponed the launch of the ESCAPADE satellites to Mars due to solar activity.

At the moment, the answer to the question of whether plasma can come to Earth is more likely "no" than "yes". The center of the cloud, according to the data that is already available, moves away at an angle of about 60 ° from the direction to the Earth and, moreover, is noticeably shifted downwards. With such initial data, only edge touches of the outermost peripheral parts of the plasma cloud are possible. Let's see what the calculation shows. At the same time, according to some signs, a systemic increase in activity is beginning in the Sun, which may continue throughout the next week. If it becomes clear that this is the case, then this factor will have to be taken into account.

Today we will publish the calculation of plasma motion.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )

 

[Ca.]

The main threat here is to the Artemis mission to the moon scheduled in a few days.

There seem to be a few variables in the next few days that would bring your research to fruition.

Well Well, hello there Major Solar Flare. X 1.3 Sunday Night

Mar 29, 2026
Solar Weather Updates.. Solar flares and sunspots..Volcano and earthquake updates.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

HOW TO SEE THE ARTEMIS CREW CAPSULE: If all goes according to plan, NASA will launch the giant Artemis II rocket on April 1st, propelling astronauts to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo era. Using backyard telescopes, amateur astronomers may be able to see the crew capsule en route. Get ready now by logging into the JPL Horizons app for an ephemeris of the departing spacecraft. Here are some simple instructions.

SUNGRAZING COMET UPDATE: Sungrazing Comet MAPS (C/2026 A1) is getting very close to the sun. On April 4th it will skim just 160,000 km (0.23 solar radii) above the sun's surface--a true death dive. The event will be invisible from Earth, but space-based coronagraphs will be able to see what happens:

​

Astronomer Qicheng Zhang of Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, created this diagram. "It shows the trajectory of Comet MAPS through the SOHO/LASCO and GOES-19/CCOR-1 fields of view," says Zhang. "The comet approaches the sun from the lower left and will also depart to the lower left, if it survives perihelion (closest approach to the sun)."

"Even if the comet's nucleus fully disintegrates right now, the remnant will still rapidly brighten in the final hours as intense solar heating turns the dust into a trail of glowing gas," he continues. "In that case, a peak brightness around magnitude −2 would occur about ten hours before perihelion (Apr 4 ~04 UT)."

In 2011, Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) skimmed the sun at about the same distance and survived. It became a spectacular sight for weeks. Could the same thing happen to Comet MAPS?

"I'm pessimistic," says Zhang. "Images from the James Webb Space Telescope suggest that the nucleus of Comet MAPS is only ~0.4 km in diameter, which is on the lower side of estimates for Comet Lovejoy. Whether any of the comet still exists after April 4th remains to be seen."

Stay tuned!

AI review
Active solar activity, specifically Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the Solar Cycle 25 maximum, could delay the Artemis II launch. These events create high radiation levels that pose significant health threats to astronauts traveling beyond Earth’s protective magnetic field.
Aerospace Global News +3

Key solar factors that could prevent or delay launch:

• High-Risk Solar Activity: The Sun is currently experiencing a peak in solar activity (through mid-2026), increasing the likelihood of powerful, unpredictable eruptions.
• 
  
• Radiation Threats: Solar particle events can cause dangerous radiation doses, with potential to damage onboard Orion spacecraft electronics—similar to the power anomalies seen during Artemis I.
• 
  
• Safety Monitoring: NASA experts are actively monitoring the Sun 24/7. High sunspot activity, especially on the Sun's Earth-facing side, could force a postponement to protect the crew from high-energy radiation, says Phys.org and The Times of India.
  NASA Science (.gov) +5
  
  If such events are forecasted, the launch window might be shifted to avoid maximum exposure periods, as discussed in a report from Space.com.

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[Puma]

X-FLARE

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Growing sunspot 4405 erupted again on March 30th, producing an X1.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the hours-long explosion:​

​

Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the air above southeast Asia and Australia, causing a shortwave radio blackout in those locations. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below30 MHz.​

Of greater interest is the CME. The explosion hurled a fast and massive CME into space, and it has an Earth-directed component. NOAA and NASA models disagree slightly. The NOAA model predicts a glancng blow while the NASA model suggests a more direct hit. Either way, G2 to G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 31-April​

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

 

[Gaby]

X-FLARE

After synching the forecasts, we're in for a direct hit.

Data has been received from the coronagraph. The forecast has been updated to a more severe one, as the eruption is clearly heading directly toward the observer. The preliminary magnetic storm classification is G3 (we are not posting it yet; we are waiting for synchronization with NOAA).

Direct link to the video (1 MB).

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

 

[Gaby]

In synthesis:

Space Weather on March 31, 2026 — Significantly Disturbed

Over the past 24 hours:
Geomagnetic conditions — temporarily calm
Solar flare activity — a flare of the highest X1.4 class occurred

24-hour forecast:
Geomagnetic conditions — magnetic storms are expected to begin in the evening due to the arrival of a plasma cloud
Solar flare activity — high risk of new flares

The main event of the past 24 hours was the first Class A solar flare since February 4, accompanied by a large and fast plasma ejection. The direction of the ejection remains a subject of debate, but the general consensus is that the plasma cloud will graze the planet, as early as tonight, triggering moderate-level magnetic storms. At the same time, given that the impact will occur during the night, intense auroras are almost certain to begin appearing. The predicted intensity of the impact, as is often the case with glancing-edge events, varies widely: at some angles of propagation, the plasma may not reach Earth at all, while at others, storms up to G4 level are possible. As usual, the arrival of solar material can be tracked using solar wind graphs, which are measured 1.5 million kilometers from Earth by satellites located at the L1 Lagrange point on the Sun-Earth line. The moment the cloud front passes through them should be marked by sharp spikes in parameters, especially on the wind speed and magnetic field induction graphs.

In terms of flare activity, it is undoubtedly in an active phase. At the moment, we can see that the interval between the two mass ejections that occurred on March 28 and 30 was two days. If we consider this to be the typical time required for energy to build up before a new eruption, then the next strong flare can be expected tomorrow. But this is, of course, armchair analysis [ totally legit!], although it sometimes provides quite accurate estimates. Mathematical models do not work two days in advance, but for today they give about a 20% probability of a new X-class flare.

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

 

[Gaby]

I think it adds to their reassurances that they don't know such thing as an April drop-dead date. Obviously, war in the Middle East or not, they're off this planet, now.

The countdown for the SLS lunar rocket has begun

At the Kennedy Space Center in Florida yesterday, March 30, at 11:44 p.m. Moscow time, the countdown timer was started for the pre-launch procedures of the SLS rocket, which is scheduled to launch toward the Moon on April 2 at 1:24 a.m. Moscow time.

The four-person mission crew (three men—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Jeremy Hansen—and one woman, Christina Koch) is already at the launch site, remaining in quarantine under medical supervision and undergoing routine medical examinations to ensure launch readiness.

NOAA meteorologists estimate the probability of favorable launch conditions at 80%. Of the remaining 20%, the main concerns are cloud cover and potential strong winds in the area. The probability of a severe radiation storm during launch is considered minimal.

Key preparation milestones (March 31 – April 1):

March 31, 8:00 p.m. Moscow Time: NASA pre-launch briefing and final systems status report prior to fueling.

April 1, 2:45 p.m. Moscow Time: Start of live broadcast of the SLS rocket’s fueling process with liquid oxygen and hydrogen.

April 1, 7:50 p.m. Moscow Time: Start of the official live broadcast of the launch on NASA’s website.

April 2, 01:14 Moscow Time: Mission Commander (Reid Wiseman) confirms the crew is ready for launch.

April 2, 01:24 Moscow Time: Engine ignition and rocket liftoff from the launch pad

If the launch takes place on schedule, it will coincide exactly with the date of the April full moon. At the very moment of launch, a full “Pink Moon” will be shining over Earth, providing a historic backdrop for the first human flight to Earth’s satellite in 50 years.

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

 

[Gaby]

They don't know know, but they know. The European Space Agency and the Chinese Academy of Sciences are launching "Smile" to study how weak our magnetic field is vis a vis the sun, specifically:

What really happens when the Sun’s charged particles slam into Earth’s magnetic shield?

Smile is about to reveal it for the first time.

This groundbreaking mission will observe Earth’s magnetosphere in X-rays while capturing the northern lights in ultraviolet, offering an entirely new way to see how our planet defends itself from solar storms.

A joint mission between the European Space Agency and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Smile will launch aboard a Vega-C rocket on 9 April.

More info here.

Updated: Video with more information:

 

[Gaby]

SUNGRAZING COMET UPDATE: Sungrazing Comet MAPS (C/2026 A1) is getting very close to the sun. On April 4th it will skim just 160,000 km (0.23 solar radii) above the sun's surface--a true death dive. The event will be invisible from Earth, but space-based coronagraphs will be able to see what happens:

[][/]
Astronomer Qicheng Zhang of Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, created this diagram. "It shows the trajectory of Comet MAPS through the SOHO/LASCO and GOES-19/CCOR-1 fields of view," says Zhang. "The comet approaches the sun from the lower left and will also depart to the lower left, if it survives perihelion (closest approach to the sun)."

Thank you for providing the obvious! That the solar flare happened also from the lower left part of the sun, and as they say above, comet MAPS approaches the sun from the lower left...."

In short, Plasma Discharge Comet Theory. It's okay to admit it. Amazing how no one wants to even bring this model that explains so much, into account. Influencers would steal the idea, without going into the science of it or mentioning its original author, McCanney. God forbid humankind would get a better picture of the forces at play.

This is the xras.ru update about the comet, which mentions how it reached peak brightness on the day of the solar flare and has begun to collapse already after discharging the sun, i.e. solar flare.

An important update has taken place in the catalog of comets currently observed in the sky, which includes the weakest bodies. Comet C/2026 A1, flying towards the Sun and for this reason rapidly increasing its luminosity, came out on top in terms of brightness the day before and will hold it for all 4 days, which, apparently, remain as long as possible for a celestial body several billion years old.

From an orbital point of view, the fate of the comet at the moment looks absolutely transparent. Right now, the comet is located at a distance of about 40 million kilometers from the Sun and is moving towards it at a speed of about 80 km/s, which will continue to increase every day. Tomorrow, the body will accelerate to about 90 km/s, the day after tomorrow, on April 2, to more than 100 km/s, and on April 4, at the moment of approaching the Sun, which still needs to be reached, it will fly close to it, or crash into it at a speed of about 300 km/s.

The chances of observing the final encounter of a celestial body with a star were initially not very high, but in recent days they are rapidly falling to almost zero. Apparently, the comet is already tens of millions of kilometers away from the Sun, unable to withstand light currents and centrifugal accelerations and has begun to collapse. The peak of destruction may occur in the period from April 2 to April 4, when the comet begins to enter the distant solar corona (at distances of about 10-20 million kilometers), and the same explosive decay processes that are observed in asteroids entering the Earth's atmosphere will begin to occur with it. At the same time, this gives certain chances for a rapid increase in the brightness of the celestial body on the night of April 3 and, especially, on the night of April 4. And although the comet's core will be impossible to see due to its proximity to the Sun, its bright tail, which can stretch tens of degrees in such a scenario, can become visible in the sunset sky from all over the country.

From about April 2, the comet should approach the Sun so close that it will appear in images from the LASCO/C3 space coronagraph. These images are published openly and are available, including on our website (Изображения и фотографии Солнца сегодня ) (blue picture in the bottom row). This will allow you to see the celestial body in detail and, possibly, provide information for a scientific forecast of its fate for the next 2 days. The probability that the body will be able to reach the Sun, even if it ends up falling on it in fragments, does not seem to exceed 1/10 now. The scenario in which the comet will survive to a direct encounter with the Sun, will be able to miss it and, passing over its surface through magnetic loops and prominences, will again go out into outer space, frankly speaking, it is difficult to estimate more than a fraction of a percent.

In general, it remains only to wait. At the moment, the first reference point is the question of whether the comet will survive until it appears in LASCO images.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (http://t.me/lpixras )

I mentioned earlier that if comet MAPS didn't discharge the sun, we could start pondering about the sun's silence. It's okay, the comet discharged the sun. No obvious solar minimum yet.