Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

Hi All! Join me today at 6:30pm PDT (01:30 UTC April 1) for a Live Forecast update as I go over the details of the current conditions and what it means for the incoming solar storm events as well as for the Artemis 2 launch. This is a public stream, but rest assured, you get priority in getting your questions answered first.

All the drama for nothing. It didn't arrive.

The forecast is at the top. Below is reality. In general, on the way to Earth, a plasma cloud measuring several tens of millions of kilometers was lost somewhere. As it was said in the movie "The Diamond Hand", we will look for it.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )

Forecasted:

Below is reality:

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

There's a G1 geomagnetic storm.

Attributed to earth facing coronal hole:

Space weather on April 2, 2026 - disturbed

Over the past 24 hours:
Geomagnetic conditions - magnetic field disturbances observed
Flare activity - increased

Forecast for the next 24 hours:
Geomagnetic conditions - weak and moderate magnetic storms predicted
Flare activity - increased

COMMENTARY
Geomagnetic disturbances began on Earth in the morning, which in some analytical materials were interpreted as a very late arrival of a plasma cloud to Earth, which was expected on March 31. But, almost certainly, this is not the case. A coronal hole is clearly acting on Earth: all parameters of the solar wind are changing just as in a textbook. Storms of the G1-G2 level should begin in the next few hours.

Flare activity is moderate, but is in a rather risky zone. A very large group of sunspots is emerging in the central part of the solar disk, the same one that produced the only X-class flare in 2 months at the end of March. In this situation, any plasma cloud will fly directly to Earth with a high probability of a radiation storm. In this case, it may be possible to observe live what protocols are provided by NASA for such situations - the broadcast from the lunar ship cameras is working continuously, although it sometimes shows a blue screen.

The influence of the hole is expected today and tomorrow.

By the way, the Sun looks quite funny today.

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

Let's see what effects occur when comet Maps passes very close to the sun. From X:

Comet C/2026 A1 (MAPS) update: the comet is now close to the Sun and few observations are reported to COBS. Still, there are some observations that indicate the comet is brightening and is now at magnitude 7.0-7.5. The comet is now only 0.27 AU from the Sun, well inside Mercury's orbit. It is getting quite hot, Mercury being ~430 °C on the sunward side, so the comet is getting baked hard. We will see how it fares through perihelion soon. The comet enters the field of LASCO C3 coronagraph in 2 days (April 2nd) - see below. All bets are off.

 

[Gaby]

There's a G1 geomagnetic storm.

Ongoing, everything is arriving or has arrived.

 

[Gaby]

We're back to 2022 levels and it seems that the trend from last year, coronal holes, will remain with us. That alone, coupled with a weaker magnetic field, will feed the geomagnetic storms. However, I do hope there's a few solar storms in store. Smile, a joined mission between the European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Science to study Earth's magnetic field and how it responds to solar storms, is going to be launched soon from French Guiana. The initial launch schedule for tomorrow was already postponed due to technical issues. I wish them luck in their endeavors, though.

This time, the comment will be short, as the geomagnetic situation and the flare situation have not changed much yet. There has been some activity in the Sun over the past day, in particular, several weak flares have been recorded, but this has not developed, and even in the current situation it could not have. The main noteworthy detail in the incoming photos is, as has become common recently, another coronal hole, but the impact from it (it will be weak and short-lived) is expected no earlier than Friday. In general, there's not much to look at yet, and there's not much to keep an eye on.

It can be noted that the background activity of the Sun is increasingly falling below level C. This means that the star has returned to the level of 2022 in terms of total activity. Apparently, some energy in the Sun will persist for another couple of years (including very strong bursts are possible), but from the second half of 2028 to the beginning of 2029, a 3-4-year period of empty Sun will begin — the star will pass through a deep minimum.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru) (http://t.me/lpixras)

 

[Ca.]

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 10th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth. CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow streams of solar wind. They contain shock waves and enhanced magnetic field that do a good job sparking high-latitude auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

Tabata posted her current assessment of the up-to-date Space Weather activity.

An Earth-Directed Storm Blasts a Big Wave | Space Weather Mid Week 17 March 2026

For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Numerous Closures Reported Due To Kīlauea Eruption Fallout

www.bigislandvideonews.com

by Big Island Video Newsnon Apr 9, 2026 at 12:59 pm

UPDATE – (3:20 p.m.) – From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory at 2:30 p.m. HST:

• Peak north vent lava fountain heights of approximately 800 feet (240 meters) were reached around 1 p.m. HST; fountain heights are presently about 700 feet (215 meters). The south vent has not been active so far during episode 44, though it produced significant precursory overflows that began on Friday, April 3.
• 
  
• As of 2 p.m. HST, the north vent lava fountain is still reaching about 700 feet in height and it is feeding a plume of ash and gas above. The plume is hitting strong southerly winds about 3,000 feet (1,000 meters) above ground level, and these winds are transporting a narrow band of gas and tephra to the north-northeast of Halemaʻumaʻu. Tephra fallout is strongest in the direction of Kīlauea Military Camp and the Volcano Golf Course subdivision, with pieces of lightweight reticulite up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) reported falling in these areas. Tephra fall has also been reported near Volcano House within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
• 
  
• The volcanic plume is moving northward and widening over a large section of east Hawaiʻi. These areas may expect fine ashfall consisting of Peleʻs hair and small glassy particles.

(BIVN) – Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and Highway 11 were closed on Thursday due to tephra fallout from episode 44 in the ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption.

The USGS Volcano Alert level for Kīlauea has been raised to WARNING RED.

Episode 44 began at 11:10 a.m. HST, and current wind conditions are pushing the tephra and ashfall to the north and northeast of Halemaʻumaʻu.

Hawaiʻi County officials announced the closure Highway 11 in Puna at the 25.5 Mile Marker – which is at the intersection of Nahelenani Street – and in Kaʻū at the 40 Mile Marker.

Officials say the closure “was made with coordination between the Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation, HVNP, Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense, and Hawaiʻi Police Department in anticipation of hazards from falling volcanic tephra. Local traffic with proof of residency is permitted as conditions allow.”

Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is temporarily closed at the park entrance due hazardous volcanic material (tephra) and gas associated with the eruptive episode.

“Rangers evacuating the area reported that tephra chunks the size of softballs were falling at Kīlauea Overlook at Kilauea Military Camp around noon and are continuing,” the National Park Service stated.

“Overnight guests of Volcano House and Kilauea Military Camp will be allowed to enter the park and shelter in place, as will staff,” the National Park Service reported. “The Kahuku Unit is open but can only be accessed past mile marker 40.”

Due to the risk of tephra infiltrating pool circulation and filtration systems, Hawaiʻi County has closed the NAS Swimming Pool in Hilo and the Pāhoa Community Aquatic Center in Puna.

Cascadia Tremor counts are rising. Almost 800 today. Thursday Night Earthquake update.

Apr 9, 2026

Solar Weather Updates.. Solar flares and sunspots..Volcano and earthquake updates.https://streamlabs.com/theearthmaster... or https://the-earthmaster-shop.fourthwa...Current World Earthquake Map https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...Recent California and Nevada Earthquakes http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Geologist with the facts.

Southern California Earthquake Data Center at Caltech

Fun Facts

On this day in April

Eruption of Mount Tambora (Famous Painting)

The eruption of Mount Tambora was the largest eruption ever witnessed. Its Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) was 7, the only known eruption on that scale since the eruption of Lake Taupo in about 180 AD. The eruption blew 150 cubic km into the atmosphere, killing 10,000 people initially. The...

www.onthisday.com

 

[Gaby]

Contrast the hysterized vocabulary of the source quoted by ca above and the following non-hysterized version:

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru)

A 2-3-day deterioration of the geomagnetic situation is expected due to a coronal hole in the Sun.

The models show high (at the level of 90%) probabilities of weak magnetic storms and disturbances for the next 3 days, from Friday to Sunday. A medium-sized coronal hole is observed on the Sun, According to calculations, the first signs of its impact on the planet should have appeared already between 6 and 9 a.m. Moscow time, but so far there are none. However, the effects of coronal holes are usually difficult to accurately calculate. This is due to the complex shape of such structures and some features of their influence on the interplanetary environment. At the same time, it will not be possible to completely avoid the impact, although there is about a 10% chance that the geomagnetic indices, although they will increase, will not cross the boundary separating the calm state of the magnetic field from the disturbed one.

The most likely storm level is G1-G2 (weak and medium storms). Strong events are excluded.

 

[Gaby]

Another confirmation is that the Spoerer Minimum (1420-1570) and Dalton Minimum (1790-1820), which came before and after the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), can be explained with the entry and exit of the brown dwarf into and out of the heliosphere of the Sun

Indirect evidence that the sun's activity was very high before the above time period.

Medieval Japanese poetry and buried trees help elucidate volatile space weather

[...] Now, researchers from the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) have shown a new approach for detecting historical SPEs [solar proton events], where they use medieval records to guide ultra-precise carbon-14 measurements of buried asunaro trees in Northern Japan.

Using this combined approach, the physicists have identified and dated an SPE to a period between winter 1200 to spring 1201 CE in the medieval period, when solar activity was extremely high. Their findings were published in the Proceedings of the Japan Academy, Series B.

Professor Hiroko Miyahara from the OIST Solar-Terrestrial Environment and Climate Unit explains, "Previous studies on historical SPEs have focused on rare, extremely powerful events. Our paper provides a basis for detecting sub-extreme SPEs—events that occur more frequently and are around 10–30% of the size of the most extreme cases, but still hazardous.

"Sub-extreme SPEs are more challenging to detect, but our method now allows us to efficiently identify them and better understand the conditions under which they are more likely to occur."

By measuring the carbon-14 content in preserved organic material, such as buried trees, researchers can identify fluctuations in solar activity over the last 10,000 years. With ultra-precise measurements—which the researchers previously developed over a decade-long process—smaller fluctuations that are impossible to detect with conventional methods can now be seen, allowing detection of sub-extreme SPEs.

However, because the ultra-precise method is time-consuming, the team needed to first know when and where to look for evidence of past solar weather events. In the present study, the first clue came from Meigetsuki, the diary of the influential Japanese courtier and poet, Fujiwara no Teika (1162–1241), who witnessed "red lights in the northern sky over Kyoto" in February 1204 CE.

While SPEs do not themselves cause aurora, they often accompany space weather that does, providing a target period for the researchers to investigate. They then measured the carbon-14 content of asunaro wood unearthed in the northern Aomori Prefecture and found carbon-14 spikes indicative of a sub-extreme SPE.

Together with dendroclimatic studies—that is, a dating method based on comparing patterns of tree-ring growth associated with regional climate—the researchers placed this specific event sometime between winter 1200 CE and spring 1201 CE, a period during which a red, low-latitude aurora had been seen in China.

Reconstructed solar cycles based on carbon-14 records, relative to baseline activity level at y=0, overlaid with historical records: orange circles denote the timing of aurora sightings, blue and red stars denote prolonged aurora events like those described in Meigetsuki, and black diamonds indicate the emergence of large sunspots. Credit: Miyahara et al., 2026

"Today, the sun's activity fluctuates over eleven-year-long cycles, but we've found that the cycle was just seven to eight years long back then, indicating a very active sun. The SPE we have dated occurred at the peak of one of these cycles."

[...] "For example, while the SPE we found occurred near the peak of the solar cycle, some of the prolonged low-latitude aurora recorded in the literature seems to fall near the minimum of our reconstructed solar cycle. This is unexpected, and we're excited to look further into what solar conditions could cause this."

More information on these unexpected prolonged low-latitude auroras during the minimum from the original study:

In contrast, our analysis revealed that some of the extreme magnetic storm events recorded in historical documents occurred around the cycle minimum. Detailed analyses of decadal-scale variations in carbon-14 data suggested that the mean length of solar cycles from around 1190 to 1220 CE was approximately 7–8 years, which is approximately 3–4 years shorter than in the modern era, implying that the Sun was in an extremely active condition. These short cycles provide another example highlighting the importance of meridional circulation within the solar convection zone as a contributing factor to the gradual modulation of solar activity.

Second, a comparison between the historical auroral records and the reconstructed solar cycles suggests that the prolonged magnetic storm in 1203, suggested by the red aurorae on three consecutive days observed in Germany, occurred at the declining phase of the solar cycle, whereas the prolonged events in February and March of 1204 occurred near the cycle minimum. [...]

Later, Meng et al. (2019)49) used the Dst data since 1957 to show that the occurrence rates of intense storms (Dst ≤ −250 nT) are 2% during solar cycle minima, 46% near the solar maximum, and 44% during the declining phase. Although the number of events examined in this study is quite limited, our result suggests that large geomagnetic storms can occur near cycle minimum during periods of enhanced solar activity, such as the Medieval Solar Activity Maximum. Although the reconstructed sunspot levels have a significant uncertainty (see the end of the Results section), the relatively high solar activity level at solar cycle minima may suggest a significant overlap of high-latitude sunspots from the new cycle with the low-latitude sunspots from the previous cycle, resulting in a rapid shift from an active declining phase to the next ascending phase without experiencing a true minimum condition.

Accompanying picture for the article, notice how it's a modern picture:

Red aurora over Engaru, Hokkaido, Japan. Credit: Tomohiro M. Nakayama

Its date seems to be December 2023. That means it's due to weaker magnetic field combined with the current peak solar cycle. More info here:

Low-latitude aurora captured by Hokkaido University Astronomy Club