Terrorist attack in Kashmir

[angelburst29]

Pakistan to return captured Indian pilot

Published on Feb 28, 2019 (1:24 min.)

Pakistan releases captured Indian pilot; confrontation cools
Pakistan handed back a captured Indian pilot on Friday as the nuclear-armed neighbors scaled back a confrontation that has prompted world powers to urge restraint, although shelling continued in the disputed Kashmir region.

Indian pilot freed by Pakistan to be taken for medical checks: Indian official
Pakistan handed over a captured combat pilot to India on Friday, and he was being taken for medical checks, an Indian defense official said.

India-Pakistan border quiet but Kashmir tense amid militancy crackdown
As India and Pakistan seemingly dial down hostilities that brought the arch enemies to the brink of another war, a massive crackdown on militancy in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region is killing both militants and security personnel in big numbers.

Washington wants to know if Pakistan used U.S.-built jets to down Indian warplane
The United States said on Sunday it was trying to find out if Pakistan used U.S.-built F-16 jets to down an Indian warplane, potentially in violation of U.S. agreements, as the stand-off between the nuclear-armed Asian neighbors appeared to be easing.

India refuses to share proof of strikes in Pakistan amid doubts of militant deaths
A top Indian minister said on Saturday the government would not share proof that "a very large number" of militants were killed in air strikes inside Pakistan this week, after doubts were raised there were any casualties in the attack that stoked tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals.

Moscow is ready to help de-escalate India-Pakistan crisis
Moscow is ready to provide assistance for de-escalation between Islamabad and New Delhi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a phone conversation with his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi on Friday.

India’s MiG-21 upgraded by Russia equal to Pakistan’s F-16, says analyst
India’s MiG-21 fighter upgraded by Russia possesses combat capabilities identical to those of the F-16 of Pakistan’s Air Force, the editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine, Igor Korotchenko, said about recent clashes involving these planes.

Eight Indian fighters took on 24 Pakistani jets in unprecedented dogfight — media
Eight fighter jets of the Indian Air Force took on 24 Pakistani jets in an unprecedented air combat over the India-controlled disputed Kashmir region, India’s NDTV television reported on Thursday.

According to the TV Channel, the Pakistani Air Force strike group included eight F-16s, four Mirage-3 aircraft and four Chinese-made JF-17 "Thunder" fighters. The other aircraft were escort fighters to protect the Pakistan strike formation from any retaliation.

"The large Pakistani attack formation was detected at 9.45 am, when they came within 10 km of the Line of Control," the TV Channel reported.

The Pakistani aircraft were intercepted by eight jets of the Indian Air Force, which included four Sukhoi Su-30MKIs, two upgraded Mirage 2000s and two MiG 21 planes, the TV Channel reported.

The Indian Air Force’s planes prevented the Pakistani fighters from delivering precision strikes against ground targets on the India-controlled territory of the disputed Kashmir region, the TV Channel said.

The details of the first massive air combat between the Indian and Pakistani fighters since the third Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 emerged as India waited for the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman from Pakistan's captivity.

The wing commander was in pursuit of a Pakistani F-16 jet, which he shot down with an R-73 air-to-air missile.

"Both pilots were seen parachuting down on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control," the TV Channel said.

At that moment, an AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) struck his aircraft, after which Varthaman was forced to eject and landed onto the Pakistani side of the Line of Control, where he was captured, the TV Channel said.

The tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad heightened after an Indian paramilitary convoy was attacked in Jammu and Kashmir on February 14, which claimed the lives of 45 people. The Jaish-e-Mohammed group, which aims at separating Kashmir from India and bringing it under Pakistan’s control, claimed responsibility for the February 14 attack.

Last Tuesday, India delivered an air strike against the camp of that grouping in the Pakistan-controlled part of the Kashmir region. On Wednesday, the Pakistani Air Force retaliated by an air strike on Indian military installations. Both India and Pakistan claimed they had shot down each other’s aircraft during the dogfight.

The situation in Jammu and Kashmir, India’s sole state with the predominantly Muslim population, has remained tense for many years. In the India-controlled part, secessionist militant groupings are active. New Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting terrorists. Pakistan rejects these accusations.

 

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This topic is my mind, so I want to write it down.

Since India's attack on Pakistan, Ruling party claimed 350 or 250 or 200 terrorists killed, which Opposition party asked for proof, so does media. Strange to Indian politics, this became anti-patriotic. For the fall of their vintage aircraft, Modi blamed Opposition for stalling Rafael air deal. This deal is a long saga of 6 or 7 years, Opposition accuses kick backs, but the only proof they can show is silly suspicions . It went in and out of court, document disappeared and appeared, opposition made all sort of self-defeating stupid accusations made to really dilute the entire corruption charge.

In the end, none of this really damaged Modi, as all this fell under opposition leader Rahul Gandhi's "Shoot and Scoot" accusations list. He is famous for making incoherent arguments and making fool of him self(Inspiring social media comedy video's) and lacks credibility due to his family corruption(since 70's).

One important thing out of all this, not a single communal violence happened, which is strange in itself.

The electoral topics boils down to Modi and divergent desperate all-else(who never get along). Opposition is in desperate mode as India made some agreements with Switzerland to share banking records which will start flowing from 2019. While Western politics run on resource (finances, businesses and media power) flow from deep state to party candidate level, Indian politicians pay from their pockets in buying party tickets(unless one is at the top of party chain) and their campaign, which they hope to get it back through systemic corruption. All this money flowed out to Swiss bank. So lot of wealthy folks are uncomfortable atleast.

Modi tried to take the credit of securing the downed pilot and they went over the top, but it cooled down soon enough. What surprised me is why Pakistan let him go when the captured pilot is of very high PR value. Modi govt. openly stated policy of isolating Pakistan in the international forum seems to have worked and even got a statement from UN accusing Pakistan for the first time, though innumermable terrorist attacks happened over the decades.

It looks MBS hand in it. Question is why did he even agreed to influence just weeks after giving $20 billion to Pakistan. One possible reason is there is some Modi's Soft diplomatic power which media touted for years. This will be sour point for Pakistan which talk as "saviors of Muslims". Modi's ambition is to bring India's GDP to $5 Trillion in the short run, for him squabbling over Pakistan is a new sense.

- There has been a sentiment of helplessness(Since 80's sikh/Kashmir terrorism, I am aware of it) among the masses and diplomats in India that Pakistan can do what ever low-intensity terrorist activity and get muslim countries sympathy. Traditional Indian political parties Muslim appeasement policy only made it worse. This is the sentiment that Modi wanted to encash with the pilot's release.
- Indian diplomacy used to be very weak. For example, When Indian Diplomat Devyani Khobragade was arrested and strip searched during previous election season(Dec 2013), previous govt. tried make her release, utterly failed for a month for its embarassment in Indian press.
- Last week's arrest of Indian Jewel Billionaire "Nirav Modi" in UK is another example of change in Indian diplomacy for better. Now Opposition calls Nirav Modi as "Chota Modi" (Small Modi) in desperate attempt to link some thing where nothing exist. I think "entertainment" will continue until the end of the elections.

During this pumwara episode, one of Modi's video resurfaced. This is the video of chief Minister Modi(2009) after the Mumbai attacks that resurfaced after this pumwara incident that sums up his view of Pak sponsored terrorism.

It is in Hindi, he is basically saying "We should respond to Pakistan in the language it understands and stop writing love letters to them". He then asks the audience " Pakistan comes here and bombs and leaves and our minister goes to America crying "Obama, they bombed us and save us". Is it the way to run the government?"

when asked What do you do with International pressure - "This is a country 1 billion people and we should be setting up priorities".

That looked like a tall order but it looks he had made serious progress towards it (from this pumwara events), Pakistan's defensive posture.

All this left me with some questions.

• What had changed during the last 5 years?
• Over the years (Since 2014, BRICS raise), there has been questions whether India is with Russia or US, though Indian diplomats talk of "Non-Alignment"(which seems natural for Indians given the Nehru and his political dynasty's role in it since 50's), it was seen with the confusion in the west. One possible reason is, USSR weapon sales to India constituted 60% of its total, but it never tagged it to ideology. Where as any US(or West) purchases always comes with ideology and arm twisting(so they bought less or none). So this "you are with me or against me" is rather new to India who wants diversify its weapons suppliers and wants to bargain before paying for it.
• Why did Kashmir terrorism became big only in 90's (after 40 years). What does Kashmiri's want at the time of Independence - a reference point Pakistan uses it. Yes, Hindu King dragged his feet until Pakistani invasion started to merged it to India, but what does Kashmiri people want?

I tried to underestand them by reading articles, but the logic tend to go digital(friend's enemy is enemy, enemy's enemy is friend etc.). Many times, making superficial accusation is sufficient to become a fact, any counter accusation good enough becoming both bad. Suddenly who attacked, who suffered becomes a secondary issue.

In order to understand the Modi foreign policy, I picked one book out of few books available called "Modi Doctrine" (only covers first 3 years of his term, things changed some since atleast w.r.t China) knowing that there will be Modi biases. India hasn't seen person like him since Nehru(60's). At the end of the book, I came out with a impression that Modi is "Fierce Nationalist", doing many thing new, confident of handling powers of the "big" players he is dealing with , Wooing all sections of the society( NRI's, Corporations, Diplomats, Politicians). will all this back fire, only time will tell. I am going to write my impressions from the book in the next post. Hopefully not long post.

 

[angelburst29]

Some news updates on India and Pakistan:

Indian court acquits four men in 2007 India-Pakistan train blast case
An Indian court on Wednesday acquitted four Hindu men accused of bombing a train between India and Pakistan in 2007 that killed 68 people, mostly Pakistanis, citing a lack of evidence, defense lawyers said.

Pakistan tells China of 'deteriorating situation' in Indian Kashmir

Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told his Chinese counterpart on Tuesday of the "rapidly deteriorating situation" and rights violations in Indian Kashmir, and called for India to look again at its policies there.

Pakistan call for peace with India as it shows off its military might

Pakistan wants peace with India and they should focus on health and education, the Pakistani president said on Saturday during a parade to show off its military might following a tense standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

Indian forces kill seven militants in Kashmir as crackdown deepens
Indian security forces on Friday killed seven militants who they said belonged to Pakistan-based groups during four gunbattles in Kashmir - the highest number of clashes in a single day in recent years.

India's Congress struggles to build alliance, giving Modi an edge

India's Congress party is struggling to forge an opposition alliance to fight a looming election having been rebuffed in the biggest state, Uttar Pradesh, regional party officials say, improving Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chances of a second term.

March 24, 2019 - America Needs Pakistan More Than Pakistan Needs America
Last year was a nadir in Pakistan-US relations after Donald Trump brazenly accused Islamabad of creating a “safe haven” for radials. That being said, as Trump has a penchant for cutting “aid” and military subsidies to foreign partners, this defamatory statement might well have been little more than an excuse that was needed in order to convince the US “deep state” to cancel $300 million in “military aid” (more accurately called reparations) to Pakistan.

Since then, two major things have happened. First of all, as Trump remains determined to extricate his country from the blood-soaked quagmire in Afghanistan, many in the US including Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad have come to realize that Pakistan’s approach to Afghanistan had been right all along and that since 2001, the US has ultimately followed the failed model of the Soviet invasion of the 1980s. As such, the US now needs Pakistani assistance to help guide an all-parties peace process which will see a reformed Taliban formalize its powerful de facto role as Afghanistan’s most prominent political force.

March 22, 2019 - Imran Khan Welcomes Mahathir Mohamad on Eve of Pakistan Day
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has called on Imran Khan in Islamabad as the former will be Pakistan’s guest of honour during Pakistan Day Celebrations on the 23rd of March. Last year, Imran Khan held a successful bilateral summit with Mahathir in Kuala Lumpur during which both sides expressed a resolute desire to expand trading opportunities, cultural exchange and share international responsibilities in respect of taking a mutually leading role in shaping global perceptions of the Ummah (wider Islamic world).

March 21, 2019 -The Samjhauta Bombing Acquittal is Proof Of India’s “Deep State” Civil War
Four Hindu extremists were just acquitted of their long-suspected role in the 2007 terrorist bombing of the Samjhauta Express. The attack killed 70 people (the majority of whom were Pakistanis) on the railway whose name symbolically means “accord” or “compromise” and which was initially supposed to be a sign of both nuclear-armed Great Powers’ willingness to overcome their geopolitical differences, at one time even representing the only rail route between their two nations for decades at the time of its establishment in 1976. The terrorist attack was connected to Hindu extremists who carried it a day prior to the planned arrival of the Pakistani Foreign Minister to India as part of both parties’ desire to continue peace talks at the time, with the suspected intent being to derail those negotiations.

“Deep State” Divisions - It should be noted that the ruling Congress party at the time immediately condemned the attack and actively sought to bring its perpetrators to justice, hence why the four Hindu extremists were brought into custody in the first place. The Anti-Terrorist Squad of the Maharashtra Police also publicly linked Lt. Col. Prasad Shrikant Purohit to the incident, who claimed innocence by pleading that he had only “infiltrated” the group as part of his professional duty but ended up being the first Indian Army officer arrested on terrorism charges for his alleged involvement in the 2006 Malegaon anti-Muslim terrorist bombings. It’s beyond the scope of the present piece to delve into all the intricate details of these two terrorist cases, but it’s enough to point out that they raised very serious questions about the connection between elements of the Indian military-intelligence community (“deep state”) and terrorist-inclined Hindu extremists.

All of this is important to keep in mind as India approaches its upcoming general elections next month because the civilization-state is at the cusp of fundamental change if the BJP comes out on top. The contemporary ruling party differs from its Congress predecessors in that it espouses the fundamentalist Hindu ideology of Hindutva and is dedicated to imposing a so-called “Hindu Rashtra” (Hindu religious government) on the over 1.2 billion people living in this constitutionally secular state whose founding principles Congress is dedicated to protecting. In fact, it can even be said that the whole reason why the Samjhauta suspects were rounded up in the first place and Lt. Col. Purohit’s role was publicly revealed was because Congress wanted to expose the danger that Hindutva poses to India.

 

[angelburst29]

Pakistan on Thursday dismissed a dossier handed over by India in the wake of a suicide attack that nearly sparked a full-blown conflict earlier this month, saying the allegation that Pakistani groups were involved was unsubstantiated.

Pakistan dismisses Indian terror dossier as mostly 'social media content'

Indian soldiers examine the debris after an explosion in Lethpora in south Kashmir's Pulwama district February 14, 2019. REUTERS/Younis Khaliq

At least 40 Indian security personnel were killed when a suicide bomber from Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e- Mohammad (JeM) attacked a convoy on Feb. 14, at Pulwama, a town in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Jaish later claimed responsibility for the attack carried out by a young Muslim man from Pulwama. Pakistan maintains that the insurgency in the disputed region is being fought by Muslim separatists from India’s side of Kashmir.

Following the Pulwama attack, both countries carried out aerial bombing missions on each other’s soil and their warplanes also fought a brief dogfight over Kashmir’s skies.

Tensions cooled when global powers intervened to prevent a full-scale conflict between the nuclear armed neighbors and Pakistan handed back a captured Indian pilot.

U.S. steps up push for U.N. to blacklist Kashmir attack leader
The United States, Britain and France stepped up a push for the United Nations Security Council to blacklist the head of Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) on Wednesday after China prevented an earlier move two weeks ago.

Kazakh military helicopter with 13 people on board crashes
A Kazakh military helicopter with 13 people on board crashed on Wednesday in Kazakhstan during exercises, the Defence Ministry said.

Karachi revitalization drive aims to remake Pakistan's largest city

At a historic market commissioned by Queen Victoria in Pakistan's southern metropolis of Karachi, third-generation spice seller Mohammad Shakeel Abbasi complains that a move to clear illegal encroachments has left poor shopkeepers jobless.

Modi promises 'new India' as he launches election campaign

Prime Minister Narendra Modi officially launched his party's general election campaign on Thursday with a rally in India's most populous state, promising development with national security in seeking votes for another term.

Boost to India's ruling party from terror strike waning ahead of election: poll
The potential benefits accruing to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling alliance from a spike in nationalist sentiment following recent clashes with arch rival Pakistan might be waning, results of a nationwide opinion poll suggested.

Two weeks before India starts voting, Modi predicts easy victory
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday his ruling coalition would increase its majority in India's upcoming election,
despite some independent analysts suggesting it could disappear due to discontent over lack of jobs and depressed farm incomes.

Promise of handouts by India's Congress could dent Modi's momentum
The main opposition Congress party's promise to give sizable cash handouts to India's poorest families if voted to power could reenergize its campaign to oust Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the general election starting in two weeks.

Modi hails India as military space power after anti-satellite missile test

India shot down one of its own satellites in low-Earth orbit with a ground-to-space missile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, hailing his country's first test of such weaponry as a breakthrough establishing it as a military space power.

India's election commission examining Modi address on anti-missile test
India's Election Commission said it had directed a committee of officers to examine Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of an anti-satellite test on Wednesday, after opposition leaders complained the move was aimed at scoring political points.

India says anti-satellite missile test aimed to deter threats to its 'space assets'
India said it carried out an anti-satellite missile test on Wednesday to deter threats to its space assets from long-range missiles but that it had no plans to enter into an arms race in outer space.

India says space debris from anti-satellite test to 'vanish' in 45 days
India expects space debris from its anti-satellite weapons launch to burn out in less than 45 days, its top defense scientist said on Thursday, seeking to allay global concern about fragments hitting objects.

U.S. studying India anti-satellite weapons test, warns of space debris
Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan warned any nations contemplating anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons tests like the one India carried out on Wednesday that they risk making a "mess" in space because of debris fields they can leave behind.
U.S. sees India space debris from weapons test eventually burning up
Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Thursday he expected debris from an Indian anti-satellite weapons test to eventually burn up in the atmosphere instead of creating a lasting debris field that could threaten other satellites.

Pakistan urges no militarization of space after India downs satellite
Pakistan issued a call against military threats in outer space on Wednesday, hours after India said it had shot down one of its own satellites in a demonstration of its growing power in space.

Factbox: Anti-satellite weapons: rare, high-tech, and risky to test
India tested an anti-satellite weapon on Wednesday, saying the indigenously produced interceptor was used to destroy an object in orbit.

 

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Promise of handouts by India's Congress could dent Modi's momentum
The main opposition Congress party's promise to give sizable cash handouts to India's poorest families if voted to power could reenergize its campaign to oust Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the general election starting in two weeks.

I know Politicians who come our door steps ready to touch the feet, only during election season, promises moon only to disappear once election was over. This plan of Congress party is staggering by all means. It is universal basic income to 20% of the poor people (i.e 50 million who benefit). It wasn't clear how they decide those 20% of the poor people who benefit and where they going to get the money from . It will cost 4 to 5 billion dollar per month or 50 to 60 billion dollars years. If they really implement it, India will be bankrupt with in months. For this, congress has to come power, if congress comes to power 90% of the money doesn't reach the poor( if past is of any indication) and foreign investment will disappear instantly. The problem with free handout is , it increases the inflation, thus making the handouts worthless. That is the irony of socialist schemes.

 

[goyacobol]

India shot down one of its own satellites in low-Earth orbit with a ground-to-space missile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, hailing his country's first test of such weaponry as a breakthrough establishing it as a military space power.

Wow, space wars/Star Wars might be just around corner...

 

[seek10]

In order to understand the Modi foreign policy, I picked one book out of few books available called "Modi Doctrine" (only covers first 3 years of his term, things changed some since atleast w.r.t China) knowing that there will be Modi biases. India hasn't seen person like him since Nehru(60's). At the end of the book, I came out with a impression that Modi is "Fierce Nationalist", doing many thing new, confident of handling powers of the "big" players he is dealing with , Wooing all sections of the society( NRI's, Corporations, Diplomats, Politicians). will all this back fire, only time will tell. I am going to write my impressions from the book in the next post. Hopefully not long post.

While reading the book, I found my self in some dilemna. There are good news about him, but at the same time one can be accused of Modi Bhakt. Though author took thousands of articles, made it a post doctoral project of his students, some of his conclusions become too much nationalistic( if India does it is, self sustenance and others does it it is their selfishness etc.). This made me check other books, picked up one book( Rebuilding India : Were the Last Four Years Transformative Enough? You Decide.) and read. The same type of numbers can be found on his dashboard he publishes on his website.

Saaf Niyat Sahi Vikas

Witness how India experienced 'acche din' in Modi govt.'s 48-months reign by perusing the achievements & milestones that they attained across various sectors & industries.

48months.mygov.in

Here is one Video that summarizes his performance from well known Indian Journalists

Modi is one of the most witch hunted politician until he became prime minister recycling the same accusations for a decade. Here is one video where he addresses all the accusations as a PM candidate 5 years back.

Coming back to his Modi Doctrine book, I will put some quotes with my comments to reduce the text size
background:
Modi's RSS days:

In 1978, when Narendra Modi was twenty-eight, he was appointed as a Vibhaag Prachaarak (regional organiser in charge of six districts of the state of Gujarat) of the Hindu nationalist body, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The distinction was bestowed upon him by the RSS’ leadership after observing certain qualities and personality traits that Modi had honed since 1958, when he joined this cultural institution as a child, donned its khaki shorts uniform, and grew in it as family.Chief among the reasons for Modi’s promotions in the RSS were his oratory, mobilisation of large groups of people, spirit of resisting oppressive political authorities which were antithetical to Hindu nationalism, cultivation of one-on-one friendships, planning and execution of projects, and a marked ability to promote the RSS’ image as a social service entity that selflessly rescues the afflicted during calamities and serves the downtrodden on a continuous basis. By the early 1980s, these assets propelled him to the status of Praant Pramukh (deputy head of the RSS for the state of Gujarat), where he continued to display leadership talents that set him apart

Now a days, any body associated with RSS or modi are in danger of being branded as Terrorist. Recent example is Tulsi Gabbard. Now a days, In Leftist simplistic association logic every thing and any thing is possible. There are sure some nut cases exist in RSS, but despite life long RSS volunteer, he always had his own opinions how to handle situation ( from Narendra Modi: A political Biography) whether expressed or not.
Ambition: His ambition is to make India top 3 countries in the world.

The turnaround in foreign policy that is Modi's mark of distinction from 2001 to 2014 in Gujarat, and since 2014 for India, has the agility and ambition of one of the Asian Tigers and Tiger Cub nations that rose from nondescript to global power status within one generation. The phase of world history when India is surging to be a leading power is quite different from that of Japan or China in the second half of the twentieth century, but Modi has seen enough of Asias success stories to not want a similar trajectory for India to turn prosperous and powerful. Yet, we will see in subsequent chapters that the Modi Doctrine is not geographically confined to or biased towards Asia or ill-disposed to the West. It is truly multidimensional, multi-vectoral and global in orientation, while synchronously visualising India as the future fulcrum of international affairs. The prachaaraks mystical confidence in Indias destiny is unshakeable, but for it to be realised, he is ever-ready to reach out, connect, communicate, befriend, exchange views, ideas, goods, services and find grounds of strategic convergence which redound to the glory of the motherland.

Optimism: It's a rare commodity until recently

In his acceptance speech after being elected as the parliamentary leader of the BJP in May 2014, just before being appointed as Indias prime minister, Modi had remarked, I am a very optimistic man and only an optimistic man can bring optimism in the country. Lets forget the negativity. Whatever the past may be, there is no need to be sad. The general confidence levels of Indian corporations and foreign businesses dealing in India have risen dramatically under the Modi Doctrine and remained high.

Foreign Visits and Diplomacy: Now, he visited 59 countries in his term. 5 times each to China and US, 4 times to Russia. His Foreign visits organized by his Large Gujarathi diaspora, RSS connections to rally the NRI to bolster the image, wooing for direct investment ( the way China did during its growing years) from business ( NRI or not).

In Modis recollection, I was lucky to visit more than forty countries, and because of that I got very good exposure. I understood how the world is moving, what type of things are developing and where my country stood. I had to think about it: why is my country like this? Why are others improving? Israel doesnt have any rain, but Israel is improving. Why are we not? After becoming the prime minister, he has kept up with this habit of travelling overseas with an open mind and communicating incessantly to learn best practices to implement them as per the local Indian context. One of the highlights of the Modi Doctrine is that he does not treat Samvaad as dialogue only with elites in foreign nations. Mixing with ordinary citizens of these countries, gladhanding them, pressing the flesh etc., are intrinsic to his incredibly photogenic and choreographed public diplomacy.
...
The Modi Doctrine does pursue traditional diplomatic channels of government-to-government, government-to-people and people-to-people relations, but it has innovated in the G2B or government-to-business sector. G2B refers to the complex of ties between public administrative entities and private corporations, and has been applied in the discipline of management studies largely to domestic relations between the state and the business community. But the Modi Doctrine has taken it to the international arena by forming a special bond of trust between foreign corporations and the Indian government. India may have been famed for customary hospitality to foreigners, but its record of being open and welcoming to foreign investors has been pathetic since independence due to ideological and protectionist impulses. Modi has thrown out this negative baggage and redefined what it means to be business-friendly on a transnational scale.

I will continue in the next post.

 

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I will continue in the next post.

Note that this book is written 2 years back, relevance of the analysis in the book have changed since particularly w.r.t china and US.

With China: Modi's Relation with China is up(As Gujatat CM before 2014),down(US tilt and dhoklam) and normal( after 2018 china visits as PM). He visited China 3 times as a chief minister(when the US banned him) to successfully bring FDI to his state. There are some apprehensions from the some of the events.

In September 2014, Chinas Consul General in Mumbai sent expectations soaring with a magic figure of $100 billion of FDI in India over the next half decade, and adding to effect that it was thrice the investments committed by Japan. Finally though, Xi was stingier and committed merely $20 billion of FDI, with corollary implications that the gaping bilateral trade deficit has no easy solution. FDI-starved India has, of course, gratefully accepted any amount of Chinese capital coming its way. But the sharply truncated numbers were reminders that China is wary of spurring Indias growth to a point where the power gap between the two neighbours narrows down. Having inched closer to the USA in power through sustained vacuuming of American private capital in the form of inward FDI, China would not sincerely facilitate Indias manufacturing growth to the point that the latter becomes its economic equal. Will China sense strategic danger in Indias rising clout and subject its FDI choices to geopolitical calculations?

sino-Indian Border Issue.

However, the Modi Doctrine is angling for a different outcome compared to the past. True to his foreign policy mission as a remover of obstacles, Modi has prioritised settling the Sino-Indian border as his major medium-term diplomatic target after ironing out wrinkles in the USA-India civilian nuclear agreement. Notwithstanding the complexity of the Sino-Indian negotiation framework, the solution is a simple territorial swap. China will have to drop its claim across the eastern sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) over 90,000 square kilometres of Arunachal Pradesh, and India in turn will disavow any claim across the Western sector on the 30,000 square kilometres of Aksai Chin, which was fully occupied by China after the 1962 war. In other words, the LAC has to be converted into a legally recognised international border with pledges by both sides to respect its sanctity. There is no other imaginable formula for peace. In September 2014, Modis National Security Adviser Ajit Doval referred to the fact that his boss and Xi are two powerful and very popular very decisive leaders who open possibilities for an orbital jump in bilateral relations. But he was also circumspect in adding, Whether it leads to solutions, nobody can be sure because that does not necessarily mean that it is only dependent on a single factor.295 Since then, there has been no dramatic movement towards a final settlement and both sides have hunkered down for more talks, confidence building measures and summit meetings.

Modis eagerness for ending the territorial row with China has not been reciprocated by Xi, raising doubts as to what exactly is Beijings strategy towards India. Does it want to keep the border dispute simmering as a pressure point against India to prevent it from cozying up excessively to the USA?

On Alliances

In May 2015, Modi delivered a perceptive speech at Chinas premier Tsinghua University in which he reminded his hosts that if the last century was the age of alliances, this is an era of interdependence. Talks of alliances against one another have no foundation. Our partnership should not be determined by the concerns of others, but by the interests of our two countries.299 It was in response to Chinese fears that India was aligning with the USA to contain China. For all the heralding of a natural alliance between India and the USA to counter China, the Indian navy has never signed up for the US-commanded Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a multinational naval grouping of thirty countries. Unlike Japan, which is a treaty ally of the USA and a core member of CMF, India believes in maintaining independence from American-designed endeavours that ultimately serve the USAs interests. In September 2015, India, Japan and the USA held their first Trilateral Ministerial dialogue and highlighted common goals of protecting freedom of navigation and upholding the importance of international law, while explicitly mentioning the South China Sea. The message was unambiguously directed at Beijing. In the following chapter, I will analyse the Japan factor in Modis Act East strategy, and how it intersects with the American pivot to Asia. Yet, the Modi Doctrines avoidance of any formal alliance with the USA and its parallel interest in managing its rivalry and resolving outstanding disputes with China leaves room for creative diplomacy. Modi has enabled New Delhi to push back against Beijings regional encroachment without the former having to yoke itself to Washingtons agenda of trying to rope in India as an offshore balancer against China. Neither China nor India would be doing a favour to the other by trying to bring closure to the boundary discord. They will be helping themselves if this long festering wound can be amicably healed. In 1988, Chinas pragmatic leader Deng Xiaoping had remarked that the intractable border dispute with India was for future generations to resolve. For the Modi Doctrine, the future is now, i.e. within the next decade. Modis desire to free India from albatrosses around the neck like the unresolved border conflict, backed up by acute reading of the Chinese psyche, means that this intergenerational border tussle is, relatively speaking, closer to resolution than before. All Chinese strategic elites I have met over the last two years believe that there is only a medium-term hope of settling the dispute over the next decade or so. Should Modi retain power and complete two terms in office, i.e. stay at the helm of Indian foreign policy until 2024, he may ultimately oversee this denouement.

USA or China or in between?

The Modi Doctrine has read this dynamic better than preceding Indian governments, and it is also prepared to take advantage of the fact that whoever replaces Obama as the next American president will be even more likely to turn her or his attention to stopping the Chinese juggernaut. But instead of bandwagoning with the USA to counterbalance against China, the Modi Doctrine has adroitly kept China interested in Indias growth through commercial diplomacy and is, thus, freeing India somewhat from absolute Chinese strategic pressure.
...
Modi has created more buy-in for Indias economic growth in China even as he remains circumspect about Chinese strategic intentions. The path to great power status has historically been overlaid by hegemonic wars and demonstration of rising powers victories in iconic battles. The Modi Doctrine is, however, charting out a strategy of India rising responsibly without being halted on its tracks by preventive or pre-emptive wars by China or its proxies. China has vowed to turn a page in history and avoid wars even with the USA via a new model of great power relations. But the intense competition between Washington and Beijing for global influence and control has only begun and is going to deepen in the decades to come. The Modi Doctrines achievement is to avoid head-on collisions with either of the big two powers and to simultaneously amass more power in Indias hands until it grows into their equal.

With US before and After: He has good relation with Obama and after that more or less moved away from USA.

As the China specialist Gordon Chang put it, Obamas oft-discussed pivot to Asia has no credibility unless Indian prime minister Narendra Modi cooperates with Washington, a bargaining chip that Modi has exploited to Indias benefit. However, Modi has also set red lines that the USA cannot cross in undermining Indias strategic autonomy and national interests. Unlike Manmohan Singh who was famously obsequious to the USA, succumbed to American pressure in crucial UN votes on Iran and Sri Lanka, was docile on American cyber espionage against India and military aid to Pakistan Modi has been far more confident to warn Washington that it can no longer hurt India in some issue areas and get away with it. This dignity-suffused India first attitude flies against the reductionist reading of Manmohan Singhs National Security Adviser, Shivshankar Menon, that Modis foreign policy has a strong pro-Westerntilt.

With Israel and Palestine:

Is the Modi Doctrine lurching too far to the right of the ideological spectrum in its unencumbered snuggling up to Israel? Has it thrown Indias principled support for the Palestinians into the dustbin? This is not so. India has not abandoned its traditional backing for Palestinian statehood and it continues to offer assistance for state-building projects in the West Bank. Moreover, the Modi Doctrine has expanded Indias relations with the Arab monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, to a much greater level than was the case with the Manmohan Singh government. Indias equations with these Arab states now transcend the welfare of Indias vast diaspora, remittances and oil supplies. They include hitherto untrodden territory such as deepened cooperation on counter-terrorism and inward FDI from Arab sovereign wealth funds for Make in India. The Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir was asked in March 2016 as to how India and his country moved beyond oil and sped up the security component of bilateral relations. He had replied that trust had increased, and that the recognition that we should cooperate, in order to be effective to fight terrorism and extremism made it natural to quicken engagements in this hitherto untouched domain. To deepen counter-terrorism cooperation with GCC countries, which have a dubious record of sponsoring Sunni extremism and Islamist ideology in the Middle East and around the world might look quixotic. But the steady flow of anti-India terrorists being apprehended and handed over to Indian security agencies by these nations suggests that India is benefiting from courting them on security matters.

With Pakistan:

Modi has conveyed this dont-miss-the-gravy-train message to Pakistan, often, since assuming office as Indias prime minister. His decision to re-start comprehensive bilateral dialogue with Pakistan in December 2015, despite no cessation in its terrorist activities aimed at India was a statesmanlike gesture that established India as the initiator and driver of regional peace and economic integration. His shock visit to Lahore at the end of 2015 caught the whole world unawares and showed that Modi is an innovator and unconventional strategist when it comes to neighbourhood diplomacy. Although serious doubts exist about whether or not Pakistan will reciprocate Modis olive branch, he has given Pakistan a chance to clasp Indias hand and help itself out of a deep self-inflicted economic and security morass. Far from appeasing Pakistan or turning a blind eye to its propensity to use terrorist violence as a tool of foreign policy, By talking to Pakistan in both bilateral and multilateral settings, Modi is pressuring Pakistan to realise that the old game is up.

Iran or Saudi or Israel?

In early 2016, the Modi government approved a $150 million investment to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar as a connectivity imperative for Indias sea-land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Indian strategic coordination with Iran has irked Pakistan and weakened the latters bargaining power over the war in Afghanistan. Comments by the Iranian Ambassador to India in 2015 that there is immense scope of strategic cooperation between Iran and India and that the two countries have cooperated with each other in Afghanistan and are still doing so460 leaves little to doubt that the Modi Doctrine expects to make India a more consequential power in the Middle East by riding on Iranian coattails. Will the animosities among Israel, Arab states and Iran ever intrude on Modis proactive multipartisan diplomacy in the Middle East, and force India to make uncomfortable choices? As long as New Delhi is not a defining power in that region with vast military or economic stakes, this risk is not going to materialise because each of these three sides has independent mutually beneficial bilateral goings-on with India.

 

[angelburst29]

In order to understand the Modi foreign policy, I picked one book out of few books available called "Modi Doctrine" (only covers first 3 years of his term, things changed some since at least w.r.t China) knowing that there will be Modi biases. India hasn't seen person like him since Nehru(60's). At the end of the book, I came out with a impression that Modi is "Fierce Nationalist", doing many thing new, confident of handling powers of the "big" players he is dealing with , Wooing all sections of the society( NRI's, Corporations, Diplomats, Politicians). will all this back fire, only time will tell. I am going to write my impressions from the book in the next post. Hopefully not long post.

Thanks Seek10 - for all the added information on Modi and his Doctrine and a better understanding where Pakistan fits in.
Much appreciated!

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[seek10]

Why did Kashmir terrorism became big only in 90's (after 40 years). What does Kashmiri's want at the time of Independence - a reference point Pakistan uses it. Yes, Hindu King dragged his feet until Pakistani invasion started to merged it to India, but what does Kashmiri people want?

I picked up a book called 'Kashmir - Behind the Vale' by a well respected Indian Journalist called MJ Akbar. This is a book published in 2002 about the History of Kashmir from ancient times to 1990. After reading this book, I got a impression that Pakistan had a no genuine chance of getting Kashmir other than by force, because Kashmiri never wanted to be part of the Pakistan.

There is a extremely popular 'larger than life figure' called Sheik Abdullah, part of Gandhian fight against Feudalism ( princes) and British Colonialism, Comrade of Nehru (during Independence struggle). He and Kashmiri's are so opposed to the Pakistani claim, It's Kashmiri's who fought against the invaders 1947 and 1965, but the relationship is complicated. He is the founder of party called Muslim conference(1932), transformed it to secular National conference(1939) extremely popular until his death(1984). His son and grand son continue to active in politics at different levels as Chief Ministers, Union Ministers etc even today. This is the important angle of the Pakistani narration of Kashmir will continue to be absent.

First part of the book is History of the land, NO way different than any Indian land ( Hindu, Moghul, sikh, British rulers) etc.. Second part of the book is the history of Kashmir during India's partition and complex web of politics that runs to this date.

What does Kashmiri's want?

The first clash of cultures between Delhi{Emperor Akbar 1556-1606} and Kashmir only resulted in the former sneering at the latter, and the Kashmiri wishing nothing more than he be left alone. Very little has changed in five hundred years.

The psyche of the Kashmiris has always been isolationist; they wanted nothing from the rest of the world, and even less did they want to share what little they had. But you cannot protect your poverty stricken Paradise for ever, and a closed mind is absolutely no defence against imperial ambitions in a changing world. The very geography which had once been isolationist Kashmir's biggest strength now became the enemy of its independence.

After 1947, we have to add Islamabad to Delhi . But, I need to write in sequence.

Without MK Gandhi in picture, India's shape would have been like current Yugoslavia with many pieces. His battle is multi faceted, Against British, Unite diverse set of people ( languages, religions, castes), against Feudalism. By early 1930's, it was clear that British can't hold on to India for long, so they decided to elections with limited autonomy. That is where the Story of "Identity Politics" starts.

Shiek's Popularity: Unpopular Hindu King wants independent country Kashmir after British leaves(1947), but Abdullah don't want King to continue to rule after British leaves. Aided by Congress, launches movement against the king(1946), gets arrested, lot of people get killed, bringing the solidarity from Gandhi's congress.

Nehru threw a challenge to Hari Singh in the same statement Everyone who knows Kashmir knows also the position of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah there. He is the Sher-e-Kashmir, beloved of the remotest valleys of Kashmir. Numerous legends and popular songs have grown around his personality. Does anybody think we are going to desert him or his comrades in Kashmir because the Kashmir State authorities have a few guns at their disposal? We shall stand by the people of Kashmir and their leaders in this heavy trial that they are going through. Jawaharlal stood by the people of Kashmir in 1946; they stood by him in 1947.

First General Elections in 1938(Under British): Gandhi's congress swept the polls, leaving Jinnah's Muslim struggling. The seeds of separation started there, flamed by british during WWII while the entire congress leaders are locked up in picked up the steam in 40's

By 1938, the mood of India had darkened. Paradoxically, it was a general election, India's first taste of real democracy, albeit limited democracy, that released the spectre of communalism into the mass consciousness. The Muslim League {under the leadership of Jinnah, the Pakistani founder} anxious to win the vote of those it claimed to represent, and unable to make much headway, sharpened the rhetoric. Its defeat in the elections of 1936 gave the Congress just a pyrrhic victory; for in power the Congress made the mistakes of inexperience and ego that so often prove fatal in public life. Paradoxically and understandably, the Muslim League grew faster in defeat than it might have in victory. Its leader sought to bring all the important Muslim leaders, and organizations onto the League platform to strengthen the negotiating power of the community in the critical days ahead; and one by one the giants of Bengal and Punjab, who had kept away from Jinnah in 1936 and 1937, edged towards his fold. It was at such a moment of history that Sheikh Abdullah struck out towards a different direction. He raised his voice against the politics that would divide the unity of India.
...
Mohammad Ali Jinnah put it in his presidential address on 22 March 1940:

The Mussulmans are not a minority. The Mussulmans are a nation by any definition If the British Government are really in earnest about sincere peace and happiness of the people of this subcontinent the only course open to us all is to allow the major nations separate homelands by dividing India into autonomous national states. If this logic had to work that the Muslims of these North-Western and Eastern zones would obviously have to endorse the resolution by popular consent. That was less easy than passing resolutions. Sind was indifferent, Punjab sceptical, the Frontier antagonistic, Bengal still wary. And in Kashmir, despite the fact that the premier popular party had emerged from the Muslim Conference, the language of its leader Abdullah was now in harmony not with Jinnah but with the men Jinnah despised, Gandhi and Nehru.

Jinnah's religiosity (or lack of it) :

Both the Hindus and Muslims of Kashmir remained with Nehru and Abdullah even as in the rest of the subcontinent the unity began to crack under the twin pressure of riots and impending freedom{1946-47}. Kashmiriyat survived the tests of that tragic decade.

Years later, Sheikh Abdullah still could not quite keep his anger at the politics and personality of Jinnah out of his autobiography. He wrote:
It is one of the strange ironies of history that Jinnah became the saviour of the extremist Muslims, who wanted a separate country called Pakistan. Jinnah Sahab, by temperament and training was miles away from such people. He was not in the least interested in living like a good Muslim. He did not even have an inkling of the languages associated with Islamic culture, Arabic, Persian and Urdu. It is famous about him that he would get into all sorts of difficulties whenever he was forced to do namaaz. Despite all this he became the biggest champion of Pakistan. But I agree that without the force of his personality and his dedication to the idea, Pakistan would not have been formed. And, it may be added, without the force of Abdullahs personality and his dedication to the faith of secularism Kashmir would not have remained in India.

Partition issues and Trio of Independence movement( Gandhi, Nehru, lesser known Sardar Patel): While the land under British direct rule are divided across muslim and non-muslim basis, the 560+ princely states have a choice. But most of these so-called princely states are few districts in the size. Gandhi told Patel, only he can solve the problem of princely states. He did his carrot and stick process to convince most of princely states except 3 principalities.

1. Junagadh: Hindu dominated, Muslim ruled principality home place of Patel. Muslim ruler wants to go with Pakistan, but it is far away from Pakistan, India took it in police operation. India did plebiscite, as expected, people voted to be in India given that more than 90% Hindu's. Pakistan never accepted that plebiscite( opposite of Kashmir Situation where it demands plebiscite, though it wont talk about its occupied Kashmir). At that time,Prime Minister of the Junagadh was Bhutto, transferred to India and went back to his Sindh province where he was from. His son Zulfighur Ali bhutto who later became FM of PK military and later becoming first democratic PM. Interestingly, the Mother of Zulfighur Ali bhutto was a born Hindu, got converted to Islam before the marriage to his father. Bhutto was fiercely against India through out his career.

2. Hyderabad( India): Hindu dominated Muslim ruled principality middle of the India. India took it military operation.

3. Kashmir: Convincing Princely states are Patel's duty,but Nehru kept it for himself due to multiple reasons. Nehru is a Kashmiri Pandit. Patel is the only guy out of trio, favorable for division across religious lines( Arguing Separation is better than later civil war) may even inclined to lose Kashmir, which Nehru don't want.

Pakistan Born Poor: Multiple reasons for it.
1. Extraordinary popularity of Gandhi convinced many Muslims to stay back.
2. There is another popular leader called Badshah Khan (also called Frontier Gandhi) in North West Frontier leader(bordering Afghanistan) wants to be part of India, but British squashed it.
3. Added to this, British during their reign, made sure that not too many Muslims in their police force of North West region (later Pakistan), so most of the Hindu police/military force there, came back to India, thus leaving Pakistan born poor.

I will write the remaining part in separate post.

 

[seek10]

I will write the remaining part in separate post.

1947 Partition and Invasion: With Hindu King is ambivalent, Pakistan decided to take by force.

On 22 October 1947, between two and three hundred vehicles carrying at least 5,000 Afridis, Wazirs, Masuds, Swatis and soldiers of the Pakistan Army on leave, according to Hodson, launched the main attack along the Jhelum valley road. They were enthusiastic and undisciplined, but they were ably led by Pakistan Army officers. The chief of operations was Major-General Akbar Khan of the Pakistan Army, using the pseudonym General Tariq. Their objective: to celebrate Id in the main mosque of Srinagar. Id that year was on 26 October: it was meant to be all over in four days, with Jinnah riding in triumph into the capital of Kashmir on the festive day. Unfortunately for him, a few imponderables like loot, rape and pillage interrupted the carefully planned time schedule of the jihad.

Domel was the first city to fall. That was easy because there was no one to defend it. The first check came sixteen miles later, at Garhi, where Brigadier Rajinder Singh appointed Chief of Staff of the State Army only on 14 August 1947 organized some resistance at the head of a motley crew of about 150 men including non-combatants. It was a holding operation but a valuable one. ...
By 26 October the raiders had only reached Baramulla instead of Srinagar.

But the main block to their progress remained a self-inflicted one: greed. They left a trail of horror along the way, raping and abducting women, looting, and murdering civilians. The incidents at Baramulla may or may not have been the worst of their kind, but they were best documented thanks to journalists who followed in the wake of the Indian Army. In fact, if the raiders had not paused to satisfy their lusts, Kashmir would probably have been secure in Pakistan's grasp. History so often turns on mistakes made at the edges of great events. Robert Trumbull, correspondent of the New York Times, sent this despatch, published on 10 November:

The city had been stripped of its wealth and young women before the tribesmen fled in terror, at midnight Friday, before the advancing Indian Army. Surviving residents estimate that 3,000 of their fellow townsmen including four Europeans and a retired British Army Officer, known only as Colonel Dykes, and his pregnant wife, were slain. When the raiders rushed into town on October 26th, witnesses said: One party of Masud tribesmen immediately scaled the walls of St Joseph Franciscan Convent compound, and stormed the Convent Hospital and the little church. Four nuns and Colonel Dykes, and his wife were shot immediately. The raiders greed triumphed over their blood lust. A former town official said: The raiders forced 350 local Hindus into a house, with the intention of burning it down Today, 24 hours after the Indian Army entered Baramulla, only 1,000 were left of a normal population of 14,000.

1948 United Nations : Nehru agreed to go to UN based on suggestion of Mountbatten, his envoy screwed its arguments there thus making Pakistan instead of being aggressor, becomes party of the conflict. He regretted later and its effects still last even to this day.

On 13 August 1948, the Security Councils three-part Basic Resolution called for a ceasefire; and asked Pakistan, as aggressor, to withdraw all her forces, regular or irregular, while accepting that India could retain part of her troops in Kashmir. Part Three of the Resolution, which was not binding unless the first two Parts had been implemented, said that the future status of Jammu and Kashmir shall be determined in accordance with the will of the people and to that end, upon acceptance of the Truce Agreement both Governments agree to enter into consultation with the Commission to determine fair and equitable conditions whereby such free expression of will be assured.
Pakistan refused to implement the first two Parts, thereby handing the argument back to India.

1948 shiekh Abdhullah comes Kashmir Prime Minister and his land reforms:

On 29 September {1948}at another Delhi press conference, Abdullah reiterated:
We have burnt our boats. There is no place in Kashmir for a theocratic state. Kashmir will never make a plaything of India's honour.
Id came that year on 15 October; he told the gathering at the namaz:

The pledge I gave to Pandit Nehru last year that Kashmir will be a part of India has now become an eternal bond. Addressing a function of the Gandhi Memorial College at Jammu on 3 December he affirmed: Kashmiris would rather die following the footsteps of Gandhiji than accept the two-nation theory. We want to link the destiny of Kashmir with India because we feel that the ideal before India and Kashmir is one and the same.

In October 1948 a special session of the National Conference passed a resolution saying: In these circumstances, the convention, therefore, confirms the provisional accession of the State with India. It further pledges its fullest support to a final accession to India on the basis of New Kashmir, the realisation and implementation of which will be our first and foremost task. The convention strongly hopes that the Indian Government and the people of India will lend the people of Kashmir all material, moral and political support in completing this task and achieving our goal of economic and political freedom.

This last had been Abdullahs first priority from the moment he came to power. The New Kashmir manifesto began to be implemented without delay, with the biggest thrust given to land reform. But there would be a cruel twist to these egalitarian intentions. The century of Dogra rule had seen the usurpation of nearly all the land in the Valley by the ruling class, with the result that most of the 2,200,000 acres of cultivable Kashmiri land belonged either to the Maharaja directly or to his Jagirdars and the small class of landlords called Chakdars. To put it more starkly, the owners were Jammu Hindus; the tillers Kashmiri Muslims. ...

Sheikh Abdullah was in no mood to wait for the Dominion. He may have been partly influenced by his long anger against Dogra autocracy, but he had an excellent case. Nehru or the Congress could hardly argue against land reform. He began by placing an immediate moratorium on the debts of peasants and workers, and constituted Debt Conciliation courts to ameliorate the misery of usury perhaps the greatest crime of them all. In just one decision the quantum of debts was brought down by 80 per cent, from 11.1 million to 2.4 million. The rights of peasants in mortgaged property were reinstated; the tenant was now protected from ejection and his share of the crop increased from half to two-thirds, while the cost of seeds and agricultural implements was now split. But of course the real challenge was redistribution of land. In April 1949, Abdullah appointed a Land Reforms Committee. But his impatience was such that he did not wait for the report; he announced his intended reforms from a party forum and the legislature only approved of it later. The maximum landholding was put at 22.75 acres; the rest went to tenants.

USA and seeds of Suspicions: All the positive start soon to turn south with suspicions. One end, Hindu organizations complaining for giving special status to Kashmir and US assurance for supporting Kashmir independence created a irreversible situation.

What developed was a fascinating evolution of truth chasing suspicion. Having prejudged the Sheikh's loyalty, a hardline element in the Government of India kept baiting him, and when he rose to the bait, declared its suspicions well-founded. The Sheikh, vacillating between arrogance and anger, often played into their hands. Doubt always seeks evidence, and evidence so often is merely a matter of interpretation. The stress of events took their own toll; prejudice breeds quickest under pressure. Voices are raised, a sentence uttered, a response offered, a motive questioned, and all the goodwill of the past gets buried in the coffin of cynicism or despair. No one is to blame, and everyone is to blame. Sadly, by 1953, the distance between Nehru and Abdullah widened to a point where the unthinkable first became thinkable, then possible, then inevitable. The starting point of this cycle was probably the meeting between Abdullah and US Ambassador Loy Henderson in the spring of 1949, when the former got his first firm impression that the West could support the idea of an independent Kashmir.

By this time Abdullah's national conference paty split with 2 factions one with him and other one against him. Adhullah was jailed, leader of other faction was made PM of Kashmir( Later Prime Minister of Kashmir post renamed to Chief Minister of Kashmir in line with other states). The bill of "Accession to the India" that is mulling in the State legislature is approved. Adhullah is released in 1958 , soon to be jailed again for raising the plebiscite, but peace returns to valley for a decade. It will be another 6 years before Abdullah agreed for the bill saying it is just a means to an end.

On 8 April 1964 Sheikh Abdullah was finally free. President Radhakrishnan called the release of Abdullah and fourteen of his colleagues an act of faith in which we expect the Sheikh and his friends to justify our faith.
On 9 April Abdullah held his first press conference and declared, I am neither a Pakistani agent, nor an Indian agent. I am a servant of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He stressed one point: the problem should be settled in Nehru's lifetime, and there was no time to lose, for Jawaharlal's health was failing. Nehru had wanted Abdullah to come up to Delhi immediately after his release, but Abdullah, legitimately, wanted to visit Kashmir first. Perhaps he should not have spent three weeks in Kashmir. He ran out of time.
...
. The briefings had almost immediate impact, softening the Sheikh perceptibly. On 2 May he told newsmen:
My friends here have been obsessed with this accession business. It is a very minor point. It is only a means to an end. What was the end? Peace on the subcontinent. How could it be achieved?

3- Nation Theory: After Adbhullah release, he wants to patch the relations with India coined the possibility of Confederaton of 3 states. Nehru is Ok with it, Abdullah went to Pakistan for it, but Pakistan dismissed the idea, mean while Nehru died.

That was the morning{ 27 May 1964} the world learnt that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had passed away in his sleep. The last chance of a peaceful solution to Kashmir probably died that day. Yet another journey had only begun; there were so many difficult miles to go, but the one man who had the moral stature, the political will and the unique vision to take us there closed his eyes forever on us that day.

India and Pakistan have not been overly blessed with giants; but there is no shortage of pygmies and scavengers busy burying hope wherever they find it. Pakistan had too many petty minds locked in the most childish fantasies, but very representative of the simulated mythology that had spawned the country itself two decades previously. Tinpot generals, their chests ablaze with self inflicted valour, went around promising that they would plant the Pakistan flag on Delhi’s Red Fort after they had made mincemeat of the hordes of cowardly, dhoti-clad Hindu soldiers. India’s air was shrill with the vulture-squawk of communalists determined to resurrect the fire and blood of the Partition riots.

To be concluded...

 

[seek10]

To be concluded...

Nehru's attempts to resolve the Kashmir issue:

Before Mountbatten left India on 21 June 1948, he made one final attempt at a solution. Towards the end of May{1948}, he suggested a formal partition of Kashmir. Nehru was ready to consider the idea, but Pakistan simply ignored it, and it disappeared into the archives.

But the story of Kashmir has too many paradoxes to display too much patriotic horror at this. From the shadows of the historical record emerges one more startling fact. Within a fortnight of arresting Abdullah{1953} for asking too much of Delhi, Jawaharlal Nehru completely reversed India's position and offered Pakistan a plebiscite! The Prime Minister of Pakistan, now Mohammad Ali, came to Delhi on an official visit. In the talks Nehru suggested that after the two Prime Ministers had finalized the preliminary issues, a plebiscite administrator could be named by April 1954. He even told Mohammad Ali that voting could be done in the whole state rather than separate Hindu or Muslim regions, and if this meant the loss of the whole Valley, he was prepared for it! The offer was confirmed in a letter to Mohammad Ali on 3 September.
...
The only condition Nehru placed was that the American UN nominee Admiral Nimitz be replaced as Plebiscite Administrator by someone from a smaller country. Deeply suspicious of the US, he did not want this superpowers hand in the plebiscite.

Now the second startling surprise. Rather than grabbing at the offer as Pakistan would surely do today if anyone in Delhi was foolish enough to make it Pakistan made Admiral Nimitz an issue, insisting that he should not be replaced; and raised small and imaginary issues needlessly blocking a settlement on plebiscite. It all seems unbelievable now, but that is what the record shows. With Abdullah in jail{1953}, and a popular upsurge in the Valley, Pakistan was being virtually handed Kashmir. If there were any doubts about Nehru's sincerity in those years about the plebiscite commitment, then surely they should have ended with this proposal. But soon after this Pakistan went head with her military alliance with the United States and Nehru withdrew his offer. The chance was lost.

One simple reason why Pakistan didn't took the opportunity is , If plebiscite is held in 1953, it will be Abdhullah who would have got the Independent Kashmir, Not Pakistan and Pakistan would have been in bind to accept the result.

1965 War and Kashmiri resistance to Pakistan: With China taking over part of Kashmir in 1963 without much resistance( India wasn't even expecting attack to even resist), Pakistan boldened by some internal stir going on, it makes another attempt of grab.

The fighting began in the early hours of 9 April 1965 at the opposite end of the India-Pakistan border from Kashmir the southern tip of Gujarat, the Rann of Kutch. Pakistan attacked and soon had the territorial advantage which it held through a prolonged and desultory confrontation, until an agreement brokered by British Prime Minister Harold Wilson ended the fighting on 30 June. Ayub Khan was content. He felt confident now about the success of his two-pronged strategy for Kashmir: the Gibraltar punch backed up by the Grand Slam knockout. In the first, trained raiders would immobilize and weaken the Indian Army in Kashmir; in the second, the regular Army would decapitate the Valley from the rest of India. Now he only had to wait for operations weather.

The 7,000-strong Gibraltar Force began to slip into Kashmir in twos and threes from 7 August 1965. Their objectives: sabotage, disruption, distribution of arms and initiation of a guerrilla uprising. These were trained men, organized groups with regular command levels, equipped for mobility, speed and communication. On paper, they could not fail. In practice, Gibraltar fell on its face. The Kashmiris who were supposed to rise as one against India, rose instead against the raiders precisely as they had done in 1947: truth to tell, probably to the equal surprise of both Rawalpindi and Delhi, Kashmiriyat was clearly still alive and well. Gibraltar was reinforced by a second wave of infiltrators along the 470-mile Ceasefire Line, but with the people indifferent or hostile the hunters became the hunted. The Indian Army now moved to block the passes through which the raiders had come.

By 1975: Leaving aside details of intermediate years, United Pakistan becoming Pakistan and Bangladesh in 1971

In the summer of 1975, Sheikh Abdullah recreated that wonderful mood of the past, of 1940 and 1950, when he organized for Indira Gandhi the traditional welcome for a beloved leader from Delhi – from the time of the Emperor Akbar downwards, a procession of boats down the Jhelum. It was truly a new beginning. Sheikh Abdullah went by road from Jammu to Srinagar in March to take over as Chief Minister. Farooq Abdullah, who came down from London for a fortnight and accompanied his father, recalls:
'There were scenes of tremendous jubilation all through Jammu. Then when he entered the Valley through the tunnel, there were crowds all along the road up to Srinagar. It was the first week of March and bitterly cold. He gave a hard-hitting speech at Lal Chowk that day; he said Pakistan must not interfere in our affairs. He added, ‘No one should feel either victorious or defeated. There is a difficult task ahead and this can only be achieved by mutual trust. If that trust does not exist, this task cannot be completed.’
That trust, unfortunately, came under strain all too soon.

Sheikh Abdullah symbolized Kashmiriyat: a spirit of independence and secularism joined by free will to a larger comity. He rejected slavery, either through force or favour. He challenged the least sign of hegemony, and he even spurned the largess of subsidized food for the Valley as the gold by which the soul of Kashmir was being purchased by Delhi. The people rallied around him with tears in their eyes. The National Conference won an overwhelming victory. The Congress became a rump force; the Janata Party disappeared into a corner. Extremist parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami, which openly advocated allegiance to Pakistan, were virtually wiped out, their five seats of 1972 being whittled down to a measly one. And not even the vanquished could pretend that there was anything unfair in the 1977 elections: in fact, those summer polls have often been called the only truly fair
elections for the Kashmir Assembly.

If Kashmir in 1977 suddenly seemed safe, Indian democracy triumphant, and Indian nationalism vindicated, then the credit must be given to two persons: Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Abdullah. Together in 1975 they charted a course which could have, should have, made what Abdullah and Nehru had once dreamt of: Kashmir as the stabilizing force of secular India. The very magnitude of this triumph makes the descent to 1984 a deeply saddening story. And after their heirs, Rajiv Gandhi and Farooq Abdullah, went out of office in 1990, the descent degenerated into a gory, bloodstained collapse.

With Assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, the delicate family relationship (irrespective of political rivalries) of Dyansties of New Delhi( Nehru-Gandhi) and Srinagar(Abdhullah's) to solve this problem disappeared and attempt to rule by Stick of Hindu nationalists had not worked. Still, there is democracy, political dynasties of the valley still rule, bet for their political fortunes viciously (just like any political party in India) and India spends 10 times more money per Kashmiri than any other person in the rest of India.

While writing 1948 incidents, author says:

Nothing quite worked to Pakistans advantage; neither the rhetoric of the 1950s nor the wars of the 1960s and 1970s. But over and over again, history was to prove that Delhis real problem was not Pakistan; the invader could be and was thrown back repeatedly. The problem was at home. The politics of the Valley, tangled in the threads of ambition, were another matter. Those threads slowly wound themselves into a noose.

 

[goyacobol]

Thanks Seek10 for that in-depth historical account.

I couldn't help notice how the U.S. just had to interfere in India's sovereignty (1948-1951) as it has for so long in country after country around the world.

The starting point of this cycle was probably the meeting between Abdullah and US Ambassador Loy Henderson in the spring of 1949, when the former got his first firm impression that the West could support the idea of an independent Kashmir.

Interestingly he was also a Minister to Iraq before being Ambassador to India and later was Ambassador to Iran. We all now see what has happened to those countries.

 

[angelburst29]

Pakistan has "reliable intelligence" that India will attack again this month, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Sunday, as tension over a February standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbors had appeared to ease.

Pakistan says India preparing another attack this month

FILE PHOTO: Pakistan's new Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi listens during a news conference at the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad, Pakistan August 20, 2018. REUTERS/Faisal Mahmood

The attack could take place between April 16 and 20, he said, adding that Pakistan had told the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council of its concerns.

A suicide car bombing by Pakistan-based militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian paramilitary police on Feb. 14 and the risk of conflict rose dramatically on Feb. 27, when India launched an air strike on what it said was a militant training base.

The following day Pakistan shot down an Indian fighter jet and captured its pilot who was later released.

“We have reliable intelligence that India is planning a new attack on Pakistan. As per our information this could take place between April 16 and 20,” Qureshi told reporters in his hometown of Multan.

He did not elaborate on what evidence Pakistan had or how he could be so specific with the timing, but he said Prime Minister Imran Khan had agreed to share the information with the country.

India’s foreign office didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Khan blamed India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for “whipping up war hysteria” over claims that India shot down a Pakistani F-16 during the February standoff.

India said it, too, had shot down a Pakistani aircraft and the air force displayed pieces of a missile that it said had been fired by a Pakistani F-16 before it went down.

The success of Indian air strikes on a camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group in northwestern Pakistan has also been thrown into doubt after satellite images showed little sign of damage.

Pakistan closed its airspace amid the standoff but most commercial air traffic has since resumed and major airports have opened.

Afghanistan summons Pakistan diplomat yet again over PM's comments
The Afghan government summoned a Pakistan diplomat to explain Prime Minister Imran Khan's latest remarks on ongoing Afghan peace talks, as tensions flared between the neighboring countries once again.

Afghanistan’s ministry of foreign affairs summoned the diplomat to object about remarks that it deemed “explicit interference” in Afghan affairs, the ministry’s spokesman, Sibghatullah Ahmadi, said on Twitter.

It marks the fourth time in about a month and a half that Kabul has demanded an explanation from Islamabad for comments related to peace talks aimed at ending 17 years of war in Afghanistan.

In late March, Afghanistan recalled its ambassador from Islamabad for Khan’s suggestion that forming an interim Afghan government might smooth peace talks between U.S. and Taliban officials. The ambassador returned shortly after Pakistan clarified Khan’s remarks as being reported out of context.

But on Friday, Khan addressed the matter again at a rally in Pakistan in which he explained his original comments as “brotherly advice,” according to accounts published in Afghan media.

“Afghanistan considers recent statements of Imran Khan explicit interference in internal affairs of Afghanistan and deems PM’s remarks a return to his previous stance,” Ahmadi tweeted.

U.S. and Taliban officials have held several rounds of talks but the Taliban has refused to talk directly to the Afghan government, which they consider an illegitimate regime.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s mandate officially expires in May. The date for the next presidential election has been postponed twice and is now set for Sept. 28.

Ghani has been shut out from the peace talks and is under pressure from rivals to step aside and allow a caretaker government to take over, a suggestion he has rejected.

 

[angelburst29]

Pakistan has "reliable intelligence" that India will attack again this month, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Sunday, as tension over a February standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbors had appeared to ease.

April 8, 2019 - ‘War Hysteria’: India Rejects Pakistan’s Claim of An Imminent Attack as ‘Preposterous’
New Delhi accused Pakistan’s foreign minister of stirring up “war hysteria” after he claimed, citing credible intelligence data, that India was drawing up plans to strike Pakistan once again sometime later this month.

India's Modi-led alliance closes in on majority, survey shows ahead of vote

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling alliance will be just a few seats short of a majority in parliament, bolstered by a rise in nationalist sentiment over hostilities with arch foe Pakistan, a survey showed on Monday, days before voting begins.

Ahead of Indian election, Modi's party vows to strip Kashmir of special rights

India's Hindu nationalist ruling party vowed on Monday to strip decades-old special rights from the people of Jammu and Kashmir, making an election promise that provoked warnings of a backlash in the country's only Muslim-majority state.

UK rejects tycoon Vijay Mallya's plea against extradition: Economic Times

Britain's court rejected Indian liquor and aviation tycoon Vijay Mallya's plea against extradition, the Economic Times newspaper reported on Monday. In February, UK’s Home Office said the British government had signed an order to extradite Mallya.