The AMOC

Here's an explanation of the paper published recently on the SMOC breakdown which happened in 2015 by Paul Beckwith:

His background
Well known climate system science educator; joining the dots on abrupt climate change. Occasional part-time professor (sessional/contract instructor) in Geography (on climatology, oceanography, environmental issues) at University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with three sons.
His coverage of the paper:


It's interesting to see his reactions. This is like really bad, and it already happened back in 2015.

Then he plays a bit with AI to analyze possible consequences. His intuition tells him that the SMOC breakdown already had consequences on the AMOC. An unstable polar vortex and increasing extreme climate events will now be the norm, making the current events look mild:


We're in for a rollercoaster.
 
Here's an explanation of the paper published recently on the SMOC breakdown which happened in 2015 by Paul Beckwith:

His background

His coverage of the paper:


It's interesting to see his reactions. This is like really bad, and it already happened back in 2015.

Then he plays a bit with AI to analyze possible consequences. His intuition tells him that the SMOC breakdown already had consequences on the AMOC. An unstable polar vortex and increasing extreme climate events will now be the norm, making the current events look mild:


We're in for a rollercoaster.
Paul is a global warmest.... he is a creation of corrupted science. i know that from experience talking to him. so whatever he says should be cleaned up :) .
 
Paul is a global warmest.... he is a creation of corrupted science. i know that from experience talking to him. so whatever he says should be cleaned up :) .
For sure, they're not thinking about a sudden rebound, yet all the data is there. After the threshold, it is not perpetual global warming that we're going to see, but the Ice Age.
 
Basically, from reading this, I think that none of them have a clue what is happening:

if you are not referring to us :) then what ever is happening and they observe, mostly thru satellites, shows excess of CO2 , knowing that 91 volcanos are there any one getting active would release co2 , am i close? rest is our interpretation , efforts to make sense out of available data.
 
I found a study from June 2024 untitled "Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse" done by people with recognition in the field. They propose an interval for the collapse:

The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.

I did not found reference to the SMOC in the paper so it raise the question if the recent finding of the SMOC going reversed, mentioned in the video posted by Gaby, would change the outcome of their model.

Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
 
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Basically, from reading this, I think that none of them have a clue what is happening:

This is why The Weather Machine SuperComputer Project collapsed. Everything was hunky-dory, while they changed from manned hot-air balloon observations using pen and paper calculations TO computers during and the decades after WW1-WW2. Then they sent up their fancy, increasingly powerful satellites as time passed. They installed new computer hardware: this was already foreseen / envisioned during WW1-WW2: establishment of "global weather forecast centers" every country connected to make THE PERFECT OBSERVATION and FORECAST far enough into the future to amaze The Masses of Sheeple.

Then a lot of that collapsed, because calculating the forecast models was costing insane amount of money and man-hours. Infrastructure maintenance required more resources they could convince their senate to support them with. Genius and young weather-forecast software inventors came up with accurate models able to run on modern and by now essentially anybodies' mobile phones, latter offering literally same COMPUTE POWER as their quickly aging and super-costly international COMPUTE & WEATHER SCIENCE centers in The Weather Machine. And everybody - especially the young mobile APP inventors - could access satellite data!

Then the large and costly The Weather Machine CENTERs' calculations became more erroneous as Climate Change set in. (IIRC) We saw enough METEOR-ologists resigning, didn't we? How curious they are called METEOR-ologists, when how exactly is their acknowledged daily work is connected to METEORs??
a small body of matter from outer space that enters the earth's atmosphere, becoming incandescent as a result of friction and appearing as a streak of light.
Ridiculous public human ""science"", this is why human surface civilization is collapsing on this planet / is under Controlled Demolition of Society by Deep State.

Also 4thD Orion STS must have realized they don't like increased international scrutiny of the skies in projects like The Weather Machine. So I think also Lizzies & Co. purposefully caused catastrophic The Weather Machine Forecast collapses in countries to dumbfound scientists, just like how they "dumbfounded" or at least attempted to make fool of Russia's moon lander project by exploding the machine via remotely controlled EM detonation.
 
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@Kadam303 please don't post just a video without any description of what it is about. Many people don't have the time to watch videos without knowing if they will be interested in it or not. And some people will just ignore a video without a summary or description because they don't know what it is about and miss out on something they would be very interested in.
 
And then, there's this:
The guy, Dave Borlace from "Just have a think",mentions how the co-author, Alexandro Silvano of the study from Barcelona made an alarmist headline which the study didn't actually support. The headline went the world over on social media and probably after some critic, the lead author changed the headline. Dave says it was probably just a good old fashioned cock-up, yet considering that a colleague to the study says that they are afraid of spending cuts to their research and how important it is to observed these changes, then to me, it sounds more like deliberate alarmist headline to support their research which kow-tows to the AGW agenda.

In the article which @iamthatis posted Willie Eschenbach does a fair job pulling the alarmist part out of the paper.
The study doesn’t mention “tipping point,” “collapse,” “current reversal,” “Southern Ocean current” or even “overturning circulation.” The only “reversal” in the paper refers to satellites detecting a reversal in surface salinity trends from decreasing to increasing, not a reversal in the the direction of the Southern ocean’s most complex circulation shown above.
So importantly the study didn't a reversal of the SMOC, just a reversal in the salinity trends from decreasing to increasing based on satellite data starting in 2008-2009. 15 years is a very short period on which to base predictions for the future apart from the question as to how reliable are those satellite measurements and how reliable are the computer models which the raw data the satellites pick up.

Paul Beckwith is a climate alarmist and made a prediction in 2013 that the Arctic would be icefree that year.
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Then he plays a bit with AI to analyze possible consequences. His intuition tells him that the SMOC breakdown already had consequences on the AMOC. An unstable polar vortex and increasing extreme climate events will now be the norm, making the current events look mild:
So when he, Paul Beckwith takes the paper from Barcelona and apparently runs with the title and posts an alarmist youtube video, though one would think that he should be able to read the actual paper, then it raises questions to his objectivity. Otherwise, why would he say things about his believed consequences of the SMOC breakdown, when such a breakdown has not been observed. Only changes from decreasing to increasing salinity levels have been observed. The rest is just speculation to feed global angsting.

As Eschenbach says:
I mean, other than the fact that neither “reversal” nor “SMOC” are even mentioned in the study?

This isn’t even the first time it’s happened. Check out the Abstract again. The study itself notes that the Maud Rise polynya—a big seasonal hole in the sea ice—was visible in the 1970s under similar conditions, and is currently visible again.
There is too little data to say much about the appearance of the Maud Rise polynya.

Basically, from reading this, I think that none of them have a clue what is happening:
Apart from the politically drive agenda, the lies and obfuscation, the fiddling with data, the biased computer bias (much like Grok), then there are also many unknown factors which for obvious reasons aren't factored in and sadly there isn't even the humbleness to allow for such unknown factors. This is not surprising if the aim is to pin it on humans with the aim to install even more draconian control measures.

I miss Pierre's input and how he would likely bring in the electrical component into it, the grounding of the sun by the companion star and so much more. That is perhaps where the real driver or a significant driver of the earth's climate systems, including the ocean currents, is hidden.
 
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