The end of the road for Macron? French political crisis

[Niall]

With Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) party poised to win many if not most National Assembly seats in the upcoming snap parliamentary election in France, president Emmanuel Macron appears to be on the ropes.

Will he become a 'lame-duck' president, unable to push through his agenda as a 'far-right' prime minister forms a new cabinet? That's what should happen next, but there are troubling signs that it won't...

Opposition politician Florian Philippot today posted a link to an article by French media outlet Europe1, which claims that Macron is considering ruling 'by decree' and ignoring the democratic wishes of the French people. The article has already been removed, but I found a cached version:

In the event of trouble after the elections, Emmanuel Macron could activate article 16 of the Constitution - Dimitri PAVLENKO, Europe1, 19 June 2024

What will happen on July 7 if no political party obtains an absolute majority? Faced with a blockage of the institutions, Emmanuel Macron could then resign, but the head of state has another solution: recourse to article 16 of the Constitution, which gives him full powers.

According to information provided to Europe1, Emmanuel Macron discussed this hypothesis with several relatives. For its part, the Elysée denies this.

There are two conditions for activating article 16 of the Constitution: an insurrectional threat, likely to call into question the integrity of the territory or the interruption of the regular functioning of public authorities.

This second case could be chosen by Emmanuel Macron after these legislative elections. The head of state could then assume all the powers.

A first since 1961

"If he decides to activate article 16, the president is completely free, no counter-power, no other formality required of him, but after 30 days, the opposition parties can demand that the Constitutional Council recognize, or not, the validity of invoking article 16," explains Anne-Charlène Bezzina, specialist in the Constitution.

Because the Constitution does not provide for a maximum duration for the exercise of these exceptional powers, only the Constitutional Council can assess, after 60 days, whether its use is still justified.

Until now, article 16 has only been used once in the history of the Fifth Republic, in 1961, by General de Gaulle, after the generals' attempted putsch.

Note the 'threat' mentioned: an "insurrectional" one.

But who would be in a state of 'insurrection'? The voters? Macron? Or anti-RN Antifa types?

I don't think Macron has the guts to do this, but I could be wrong. Looks like France is in for nasty socio-political weather...

 

[The Mechanic]

Note the 'threat' mentioned: an "insurrectional" one.

But who would be in a state of 'insurrection'? The voters? Macron? Or anti-RN Antifa types?

I don't think Macron has the guts to do this, but I could be wrong. Looks like France is in for nasty socio-political weather...

Perhaps they're setting things up for a January 6th style "insurrection" a la the US?

 

[Niall]

Perhaps they're setting things up for a January 6th style "insurrection" a la the US?

Yes, maybe, but I guess that for that scenario the election would have to be rigged in order to inspire anti-government/Macron protests. The polls show that Macron stands no chance of stopping RN from forming a new government.

Unless... the protesters are Antifa and other leftist anti-RN protesters who start burning down cities like in the US before its last election, at which point Macron would declare an emergency and play the role of a 'third-party negotiator between the warring factions'.

But that would be a very, very thin disguise for what is really the losing party preventing the winning party from assuming power.

 

[luc]

But that would be a very, very thin disguise for what is really the losing party preventing the winning party from assuming power.

... at which point there would be a real J6-type insurrection. Except that the French are not known for orderly Elysée sightseeing-type protests Add to that yellow vests, pro-Gaza Arabs and random banlieu thugs

Well, it's a possibility, but I don't think it will necessarily play out that way. There are a ton of variables, and it seems our masters really have no thought-through plan at this point.

 

[Natus Videre]

Perhaps they're setting things up for a January 6th style "insurrection" a la the US?

Brigitte lights up her torch to protect Macron from Antifa thugs? A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

 

[Seppo Ilmarinen]

What about the 'interruption of the regular functioning of public authorities' through false flag cyber attack?

There's been already few precedents this year in France to condition the public and also the convinient warnings of possible cyber attacks during the Paris Olympics.

I think Macron would need some major event to make his power grap even slightly realistic.

Widespread disruptions after the snap elections via cyber attack jeopardizing the Olympics, or the election results (or something else) would have new shock value.

Or at least this would be the emotional message, in reality the whole cyber attack thing could be something highly exaggerated in order to manipulate the people into submission, like during the Covid.

Though Macron and the PTB are operating from the base of hubris, so there may not be too plausible or logical sounding reason necessary (and the whole thing could likely end as disaster for Macron), or maybe this is just Macron shadow boxing again (like previously with Putin), and then he just backs down and accepts his faith.

 

[Joe]

Macron and Co. are making no secret of their intent to marginalize the "extreme right" and "extreme left" in advance of these elections, with the obvious goal of inciting young impressionable "lefties" to protest in the streets. His contrived and largely false message is being helped along by very "coincidental" events like this, which seem mainly directed at the "anti-semitic extreme left" and also, of course, provide lots of support for the murderous Israelis:

French president denounces 'scourge of antisemitism' after rape of Jewish girl

The French president was reacting to the incident which happened in Courbevoie, a suburb of Paris.

www.bbc.com

In response to the attack, people took to the streets on Wednesday to protest against antisemitism, carrying banners including one that read: "It could have been your sister."

He asked the Minister of Education, Nicole Belloubet, to ensure that over the next few days schools hold a dialogue on the topics of racism and hatred of Jews to prevent "hateful speech with serious consequences" from "infiltrating" classrooms.

Ms Belloubet later wrote on X: "There is no limit to horror... Rape, antisemitism: every part of this crime is revolting."

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called the attack "absolutely despicable, unbearable and unspeakable".

"Unfortunately, since 7 October, antisemitism has been on the rise again in our country," he told TF1.

Marine Le Pen, the president of the far-right National Rally (RN), urged voters to keep in mind the "stigmatisation of Jews by the far left" when they go to the polls later this month.

Her protegee, Jordan Bardella, said if elected he would "fight the antisemitism that has been plaguing France since 7 October".

Notice that the "extreme right" that hopes to win the election is getting in on the "anti-left" action. But there's also a concerted campaign to demonize them.

The extent of the hold of the Israeli lobby in France is plain for all to see. Anyone pointing it out is to be made a pariah.

 

[Don Cesar]

I really can't guess what was in his head when dissolving the National Assembly, but it looks like he wanted to start a power struggle between the left and the right by their extremes. And possibly evoke article 16 to regain power, if riots break out between left and right depending on who will be "elected" to power. A chaotic wishful thinking à la Macron.

 

[Joe]

In France....

the "extreme right" is anti immigrant but pro Israel

the "extreme left" is pro immigrant but anti Israel

Take your pick: you can have no immigration but support for the murderous Zionists

or you can have no support for the murderous Zionists, but lots of immigration.

Between these two, the country must perpetually be divided and strife-ridden, unless....you vote for Macron's "centrist" party.

With Macron, you'll get a wonderful synthesis, i.e. all of the "pro" "good stuff" from the right and all of the "pro" "good stuff" from the left, supercharged:

lots of immigration, undying love for the murderous Zionists, and as a bonus, promotion of transgenderism to kids and a drag queen at every state function (in addition to Brigitte).

Vive La France.

 

[Don Cesar]

Thank you @Joe for summarizing this messy situation... I'm going to take just one example, where we see the Nazi-hunting Klarsfeld family calling to vote for the pro-Zionist extreme right and therefore not anti-Semitic, what an irony ...I find it hard to believe that the French people understand much about it.

 

[luc]

the "extreme right" is anti immigrant but pro Israel

the "extreme left" is pro immigrant but anti Israel

Well, there was that guy in the 30s... Seriously though, the programming resulting from the Nazi era and its memory has the effect of erecting this barrier between the sensible left and the sensible right, for fear of getting too close to something vaguely associated with Nazism. Like, as a leftist, you can be pro-Palestine because it's Arabs and "foreigners" after all, but you must offset this by being pro-immigration (otherwise you are a Nazi) and frame criticism of Israel in strictly leftist terms (settler colonialism etc.). On the right, you can be anti-immigration, but you must offset it by being pro-Israel, cause otherwise you are clearly a Nazi.

Similarly, as a leftist, it's OK to be critical of liberal democracy (like in Marxism), because you have anti-Nazi credentials. But if you are on the right, criticizing liberal democracy makes you a total pariah and a potential crypto-antisemite for pointing out, for example, that an international financial oligarchy runs things and democracy in some sense was just a means to that end...

It's as if some force worked for a veery long time to erect all these barriers in our collective mind, a sort of maze that is extremely difficult to navigate or even escape.

 

[Jacques]

Another point of view can be read here:

Cette dissolution pue la dictature européenne à plein nez

Ne nous réjouissons pas trop vite : la dissolution de l'Assemblée nationale française suite à la débâcle électorale européenne de la macronie n'augure rien de bon. En réalité, elle inaugure la dissolution de la France dans le nouvel état européen...

fr.sott.net

Let's not rejoice too quickly: the dissolution of the French National Assembly following the Macronie's European electoral debacle does not augur well.

In fact, it ushers in the dissolution of France into the new European state headed by Mario Draghi this summer.

Note Macron's eagerness to announce this dissolution when the official figures for the final results had not even been established.

Likewise, the immediate revelation of the dates of the forthcoming legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, when the various official bodies had not even been consulted beforehand: the National Assembly, the first concerned, but also the Senate, political parties... is more than suspicious.

Everything seems to have been prepared well in advance.

 

[EricLux]

With Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) party poised to win many if not most National Assembly seats in the upcoming snap parliamentary election in France, president Emmanuel Macron appears to be on the ropes.

Will he become a 'lame-duck' president, unable to push through his agenda as a 'far-right' prime minister forms a new cabinet? That's what should happen next, but there are troubling signs that it won't...

Opposition politician Florian Philippot today posted a link to an article by French media outlet Europe1, which claims that Macron is considering ruling 'by decree' and ignoring the democratic wishes of the French people. The article has already been removed, but I found a cached version:


Note the 'threat' mentioned: an "insurrectional" one.

But who would be in a state of 'insurrection'? The voters? Macron? Or anti-RN Antifa types?

I don't think Macron has the guts to do this, but I could be wrong. Looks like France is in for nasty socio-political weather...

We're living in great times, at the end of a reign, a disintegration...

Don't forget last Cs sentence "Many more trials coming in place after place. It takes a lot to awaken a dumbed down population. Many will not survive. Take care of each other."

Trial means challenge, test too... French games before olymic games !​

 

[EricLux]

I really can't guess what was in his head when dissolving the National Assembly, but it looks like he wanted to start a power struggle between the left and the right by their extremes. And possibly evoke article 16 to regain power, if riots break out between left and right depending on who will be "elected" to power. A chaotic wishful thinking à la Macron.

Apparently, what's being said - and I have friends close to members of the French National Assembly - is that he hadn't anticipated that the left could unite in the event of an early dissolution, and that he was therefore hoping to draw on the left to rebuild his majority. Given the setbacks - and I'm being kind - seen on the left in recent months, this may be plausible. And then, miraculously, overnight, NUPES 2.0 was here... Politic is a game...​

 

[anartist]

---

but after 30 days, the opposition parties can demand that the Constitutional Council recognize, or not, the validity of invoking article 16," explains Anne-Charlène Bezzina, specialist in the Constitution.

Because the Constitution does not provide for a maximum duration for the exercise of these exceptional powers, only the Constitutional Council can assess, after 60 days, whether its use is still justified.

Is this deliberately confusing? Or is it a roundabout way of saying the the opposition parties can demand after 30 days, but the Council doesn't have to respond until 60 days have passed?