The end of the road for Macron? French political crisis

seve said:
Yes, the drama continues. It's never boring watching everyone's antics. It's clear that Manu is trying to buy time. Before what?
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I don't want to blow our own trumpet, but a key factor in Lecornu and Macron's strategy is the situation in New Caledonia, a French territory sui generis, which is in a race against time to pass a law putting our provincial elections back to mid-2026.

Currently, there are about 40,000 (mostly metropolitan, pro-France) voters out of 200,000 who are locked out of the provincial elections (due to having arrived in NC after 1998) to offer more weight to the pro-independence minority (essentially a majority, but certainly not all of the indigenous population). Just several weeks ago, the Conseil Constitutionel ruled that depriving those French citizens of the vote is not unconstitutional, even though it is recognised as an exceptional measure. So unless the Senate passes that law in the next week or so, the provincial elections will take place in late November with the restricted electoral roll and offer the pro-independence parties a shot at a higher representation in our Congress. However, a sitting government is required to present the bill to the Senate and behold! Lecornu has formed a new government just in time!

Why does this matter? Well, the Bougival Accord to lay the foundation for a new status for NC in the French Republic was signed by all political parties and the State in July (a terrible Accord for the pro-French majority, but that's another story), though the pro-independence radicals have since withdrawn their signatures: the basis of an independence-association with France has been established, as have the almost impossible democratic conditions to obtain it. The pro-independence strategy is based around blocking the 40,000 extra pro-French votes, which gives them a (very slim) chance of gaining sufficient seats in Congress to pressure the State. The pro-France strategy is based around abolishing the electoral restrictions, which would be the case if the Bougival Accord is passed by a referendum in February, which then allows the provincial elections take place with an expanded French-leaning electoral roll.

Should New Caledonia become independent in any shape or form, it would be a massive blow to the Republic and set the path for other overseas territories to follow. I'm not sure Macron's ego would take being remembered as the Man who destroyed the Republic!

To get to the crux of the situation, Sébastien Lecornu has very strong personal ties with the leading pro-French parties after his time as Overseas Territories Minister and settling the situation in NC is one of his two stated priorities, along with the budget. Pro-France New Caledonians are praying that Lecornu gets the bill through the Senate before his government is once again toppled - which it clearly will be very soon!

In Paris, the moving chairs is about gaining time. The question is indeed what will happen once the deadline passes?
 
Just to clarify my earlier post, the Bougival Accord is itself essentially an ambiguous accord for a form of independence-association, which establishes the almost unobtainable conditions required (under the current institutional and social structure) for New Caledonia to become fully independent.

I hope that makes everything perfectly clear :huh:;-D
 
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