The Situation in Mexico

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Will the Peruvian government invade the Mexican embassy?​

Betsy Chávez, former prime minister of Peru during the Pedro Castillo administration, is currently in the Mexican embassy in Lima, where she requested and was granted political asylum on November 3, 2025. This situation sparked a diplomatic crisis between Peru and Mexico, as the Peruvian government broke off diplomatic relations with Mexico, declaring the Mexican ambassador persona non grata and refusing to grant Chavez the safe conduct necessary to leave the country.

Chávez faces trial for the alleged crimes of rebellion, conspiracy, and abuse of authority related to her role in an alleged self-coup perpetrated by Pedro Castillo on December 7, 2022. She was arrested in June 2023, and in September 2025, the Constitutional Court overturned her pretrial detention, ordering her immediate release, which led her to seek political asylum at the Mexican Embassy.

On November 21, 2025, the Peruvian judiciary issued a 5-month preventive detention order against her, along with an Interpol red notice for his international arrest.

This order gave rise to speculation that the Peruvian government would order the invasion of the Mexican Embassy, as happened in Ecuador on April 5, 2024, when a police and military operation violated the diplomatic inviolability established in the 1961 Vienna Convention. This event was described as an "invasion" by the Mexican government and the international community. This action was taken to capture former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been sheltering in the diplomatic headquarters since December 2023.

Given the precedent, Colombian President Gustavo Petro posted on X
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If Peru attacks the Mexican embassy, Colombia will withdraw its embassy.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1992033399595262064

The president of Peru's Council of Ministers, Ernesto Álvarez, denied on Thursday that his country could storm the Mexican embassy in Lima to arrest former Prime Minister Betssy Chávez.

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[Puma]

This order gave rise to speculation that the Peruvian government would order the invasion of the Mexican Embassy, as happened in Ecuador on April 5, 2024, when a police and military operation violated the diplomatic inviolability established in the 1961 Vienna Convention.

Here we go. Peruvian President José Jerí said that political asylum has been misused, so he is considering entering the Mexican Embassy in Lima to capture Betssy Chávez.​

Peru's de facto president, José Jerí, did not rule out storming the Mexican embassy, where former prime minister Betssy Chávez is taking refuge, warning: "I am not limiting myself. If we have to enter the Mexican embassy, we will do so."

Jerí was not elected by popular vote to assume the presidency; he was president of Congress and was appointed to head the executive branch after the dismissal of de facto president Dina Boluarte on October 10.

Earlier this month, Peru broke off relations after learning that Mexico had granted asylum to Chávez.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1992643931734216713

There will be another invasion of the Mexican Embassy, this time in Peru, with increased security outside the consulate due to the risk of Betssy Chávez escaping. While the International Criminal Court has not sanctioned Ecuador, another violation of Mexican sovereignty is about to take place.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1992742684243767608

 

[Puma]

Former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reappeared publicly to announce his book "Grandeza" (Greatness. López Obrador has written 21 books, including this one, ranging from political essays to his experience as president of Mexico.) . The former president specified that he will not tour the country to promote it because he is not a caudillo and "we must not overshadow the president," Claudia Sheinbaum, whom he asked to support after the attempted soft coup in November, which was also promoted by foreign interests.​

AMLO stressed that he would only take to the streets for three reasons:

● "if they attack democracy"
● to defend Claudia Sheinbaum's presidency.
● If there are attempts at a coup d'état.

AMLO said, "If they harass her, then yes, but I don't think that will happen; and to defend Mexico's sovereignty, because our country is free, independent, sovereign, we are not a colony of any foreign country."

Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to enjoy very high popularity in Mexico, even after concluding his presidential term on October 1, 2024. According to recent polls from November 2025, his approval rating stands at around 80% a historic level that exceeds that of most of his predecessors at the end of their six-year terms and withstands campaigns against him. This figure is based on measurements by firms such as Morning Consult and Oraculus, which during his administration consistently ranked him as one of the most approved leaders in the world.

AMLO's reappearance marks a game changer for the opposition and factions hoping to erode Sheinbaum's popularity. AMLO is popular not only among older adults (65+) but also among young people under 34, so it is certain that movements hijacked by the right, such as Gen Z Mexico, will not be as successful as expected. They will have to come up with other strategies, because it is clear that the right cannot win legally at the polls.
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