The Situation in Mexico

I have been keeping up with the developments in this drama. Unfortunately my wife and kids are in the Puerto Vallarta area so I'm hearing things first-hand. My flight tomorrow to return (I'm in the u.s) will likely be cancelled.

As far as I know all flights heading to PV today were either cancelled, turned around or had to land in Cabo to refuel and return home. The airport was completely evacuated with only a couple of flights leaving early. There were numerous cars/buses/etc burning. Many had been carjacked. There were rumors of a prison break in PV, which if true is rather dangerous. Those folks aren't in there for petty crimes.

Everyone is staying home which is likely all that is needed until this sorts itself out. I got a message about 1.5 hours ago saying that the Mexican Navy are flying helicopters in the area. There had been very limited military presence, which seems odd.

There are many pages on FB that focus on the area. Lots of images/videos(that are likely not AI), most taken by very frightened tourists. "Inside La Cruz" is pretty active.

As an aside: last week the u.s military deposed of 2 "drug boats" in the "Eastern Pacific" killing 8. Six of them were from La Cruz de Huanacaxle. The town was already reeling. (they were likely not fishing)

I had wondered earlier if this is all an alphabet/mossad op.
 
Some time ago a Mexican colleague told me that many cartel commanders (I don't recall if it was about this Jalisco cartel or another) are military trained in the US who have defected. In other words, the go to the US for training, they return to Mexico and join the cartels. It could be a perfect Trojan horse for destabilization. The Colombian mercenaries in Ukraine is common knowledge but the possibility of Mexican cartel people cannot be excluded (heard about the rumour months ago anyway).
 
Very likely mkrnhr. This seemed very organized (today). What is surprising is that generally PV and Cancun were "off-limits" as many of the luxury high-rises that are going up everywhere are laundries for the cartels.

Then again, there are pending investigations into this. Might be another angle.
 
mkrnhr said:
military trained in the US who have defected. In other words, the go to the US for training, they return to Mexico and join the cartels.
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That's right, that was the case with the Zetas Cartel (1997-2012), which was formed by Mexican Army lieutenant Arturo Guzmán Decena, alias "Z-1." He created the cartel with personnel from the Aeromobile Special Forces Group (GAFE), an elite unit trained in combat, special tactics, and educated at the School of the Americas (Fort Bragg, U.S.) and possibly by Israeli instructors.

They were hired by Osiel Cárdenas Guillén, leader of the Gulf Cartel (based in Tamaulipas), as the armed wing or "personal guard" to protect him from rivals (such as the Sinaloa Cartel) and from the army itself. The Zetas started as hitmen, bodyguards, and enforcers for the Gulf Cartel, and with the capture of Osiel Cárdenas, they became an autonomous organization. Today it no longer exists, but its members have formed other paramilitary-style organizations, such as the CJNG.

​
 
Puma said:
He created the cartel with personnel from the Aeromobile Special Forces Group (GAFE), an elite unit trained in combat, special tactics, and educated at the School of the Americas (Fort Bragg, U.S.) and possibly by Israeli instructors.
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So they fight, but then everything stays within "the family".

According to The Washington Post:
The US assisted Mexican forces in the special operation to eliminate CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias ‘El Mencho’.
According to a US official, “the operation was carried out by the Mexican Army, but involved a joint US-Mexico force.” The structure was formed by the Pentagon in January 2025 to combat drug cartels and is based in the state of Arizona.

The media outlet specified that the aforementioned group interacts regularly with the Mexican Army. Specifically, it collects information on drug cartels operating in the US and Mexico.

The Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, which involves multiple U.S. government agencies, was formally launched last month with the goal of mapping out networks of drug cartel members on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, U.S. officials said.
(...)
U.S.-military-led task force may have offered Mexican authorities. The official stressed the raid itself was a Mexican military operation.
The former official added El Mencho was very high, if not at the top, of a list of U.S. targets in Mexico.
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www.reuters.com

Exclusive: New US military-led group aided Mexico's hunt for 'El Mencho' cartel boss

A new U.S.-military-led task force specializing in intelligence collection on drug cartels played a role in the Mexican military raid on Sunday that killed the Mexican drug lord known as 'El Mencho,' a U.S. defense official told Reuters.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Liliea said:
So they fight, but then everything stays within "the family".
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Yup, Remember that the Cs said that Mexico and the US were in agreement/alliance/ cahoots.

There is an entire network of corruption on both sides working together.

1. Drug trafficking is driven by U.S. demand

The U.S. is the world's largest market for illicit drugs, and Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) supply a significant portion of them to meet that demand. In this business both sides benefit: drug traffickers from here and there, officials from here and there. It is said that the CIA's black operations budget comes from drug trafficking. U.S. consumption drives cartel profits, estimated at $700 million to $1 billion annually from fentanyl alone. Big Pharma is just one head of the beast and eats suffering and minds.

2. Cartels are financed through money laundered in the U.S.

Drug proceeds from U.S. sales are often laundered in the U.S. before being repatriated to Mexico or to any other place where they are needed. In 2012, HSBC admitted to having allowed the laundering of nearly $881 million from Mexican cartels. Other banks frequently sanctioned for failures in their anti-money laundering systems include Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. In 2020, the FinCEN Files reported that Deutsche Bank handled suspicious transactions linked to organized crime. The global banking system is just one head of the beast and eats souls.

3. Cartel weapons are produced mainly in the U.S. but also in Israel

ATF data shows that 70-90% of firearms recovered at Mexican crime scenes and successfully traced originate in the U.S. Other sources include corrupt Mexican military stockpiles, Central American armories, or international markets (mainly Israel) The military complex is just one head of the beast and eats bodies.
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4. The U.S. benefits from eternal violence in Mexico to control territories and resources. Corrupt Mexican officials benefit from U.S. assistance to reduce crime and violence. It's a vicious cycle.

Violence displaces over 379,000 Mexicans, spills into U.S. border areas, and exacerbates migration and drug flows. Eternal violence, eternal suffering. Food for the beast, for our Hyperdimensional overlords.​
 
Puma said:
Just so it is clear, US disinformation networks and propagandists are helping a drug cartel / terrorist group spread panic, during a nationwide government operation.
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Panic accomplished.

The SEP (Ministry of Public Education) is suspending classes (all levels) in several states and municipalities of Mexico. This goes as well for universities.

The Guadalajara metropolitan area was even more deserted than during the pandemic; not even restaurants or pharmacies were open this time.

Some people, visitors, workers, etc., were trapped in buildings. around 1000 people will spend the night at the zoo, especially visitors from other states that were too afraid to leave.
 
Puma said:
Will the CIA be involved?
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Naturally.

Have discussed this prior, yet here again is Douglas Valentine's historical backgrounder on the Cartel's: Part I and Part II

Since, things have changed i.e., the deck has been reshuffled with new players (bosses come and go and new lieutenants rise along with the military and political comptrollers). There are probably outside intel players that are more active now (moo-sad), and the whole laundry machine may have been modified to wash and reinvest (like the Mexican East Coast's, Los Zetas in real estate). North American and other banks still play their part (with some paying laundry fines once in a while when caught), as does the military and politicians on both sides of the Boarder.

Douglas could probably add more to his observations since his initial writings: more expansive growth, modern, and technological. Groups are modified from within and out. Weapons may somewhat change, yet it may be that the core control has not really changed that much. Their objective may be sifting, though - like the U.S. to Venezuela, Cuba and other South American states, like a North, Central and South American reorg.

Not likely easy to fully deconstruct, if at all, yet the initial cartel architecture remains, or so it seems.
 
My take on the situation is the following. Big operations like these serve the interests of the United States. In late July 2024 the co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel was delivered to US authorities by the son of his close associate, "El Chapo", just in the middle of the campaign for the US Presidential election, Biden immediately used the arrest to promote his reelection.

What resulted was a civil war within the Sinaloa Cartel which still goes to this date, affecting mostly the states the Cartel controls (outside areas controlled by the CJNG).

Before all this happened, the writing was on the wall for the Sinaloa Cartel. After "El Chapo" was detained in 2016 and sent to the US, his son Ovidio was detained in two occasions (2019 and 2023) which resulted in a similar situation to yesterday's: blocked highways, vehicle burnings, attacks to airports. The key difference here is that the chaos was somewhat constrained to Sinaloa.

This time the response expanded across multiple states, revealing how big the CJNG really is. It becomes clear is the dominant criminal organization after the Sinaloa Carter fell into division and chaos.

We have Trump's State of the Union tomorrow (Tuesday) and we may hear something about this from him. After months of Trump pushing the "Mexico is run by Cartels" narrative, and threatening to send US troops to Mexican territory, it seems to me that Sheinbaum had no choice but to comply and "do something", or at least to allow for something to happen.

But beyond Trump's word, we had signs something was up. On February 17-19 a US Air Force Hercules landed in Toluca, near Mexico City. Supposedly was to take Mexican officials for training back to the US. The Mexican President acknowledged this was part of the bilateral agreements with the US and prevent actual US troops incursions on Mexican soil. This, tied up with the comments by Press Secretary Leavitt, about the US providing support for the operation, indicates that maybe this Hercules was here for more than just a pick up operation.

The death of "El Mencho" comes at a bad timing for Mexico. The country will co-host the World Cup in June-July, and will have a big game in March to celebrate the reopening of the Estadio Azteca with a match against Portugal and his superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. But again, it could be that the operation had to be rushed for some reason, either Trump's State of the Union speech, or because the opportunity to attack "El Mecho" in his Tapalpa compound came up, or both.
 
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Navigator said:
The death of "El Mencho" comes at a bad timing for Mexico. The country will co-host the World Cup in June-July, and will have a big game in March to celebrate the reopening of the Estadio Azteca with a match against Portugal and his superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. But again, it could be that the operation had to be rushed for some reason, either Trump's State of the Union speech, or because the opportunity to attack "El Mecho" in his Tapalpa compound came up, or both.
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If things calm down fast, as it seems to be happening today, it may have been good timing. The government can claim that they did their job and gave a major blow to organized crime and now the security is better, etc. Trump will have less credible excuses to intervene in Mexico also. On the other hand, if we have more violence, then yes, it will look very bad and the frictions with the US may escalate.

I think the two major problems now are: 1) that there will be an internal war in the CJNG to see who will be the next boss and that can turn violent on the streets, and 2) that if the cartel is fragmented or even dismantled, the 'orphaned' lower level criminals will seek new occupations that will affect the Mexican people more directly, such as kidnappings, robberies, small-business extorsions, etc. However, I understand that the CJNG was already into those sort of 'businesses' - not just drug trafficking as such.
 
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