The Situation in Mexico

This Monday, the red alert remains in effect in Jalisco but the people at the metropolitan area of Guadalajara needed to go out to buy groceries, some super market stores are open, some like Cosco and Walmart are closed. Some little stores like tortilla shops, greengrocers, butchers, bakeries, etc., are open although, with long lines of people. Some are still afraid to go outside. People usually go shopping (stock the pantry and refrigerator) on Sundays, but yesterday practically everything was closed. From early on, shortages of certain products were already noticeable. In other cities such as Puerto Vallarta, the same thing is happening, with long lines of people waiting to buy food.

The governor of the state of Jalisco, Pablo Lemus, mentions that the return to normalcy will be gradual. There is no exact date for the return to school, and mass events have been canceled.
 
I think this is about securing "strategic resources" for the US.

Mexico is rich in lithium (nationalized in 2022), silver (the world's largest producer), copper, zinc, and other “critical minerals” for US industry and defense.

Cartels have infiltrated the mining industry: they extort companies, control illegal mines, and dominate mining regions in states such as Guerrero, Michoacán, and Zacatecas. Just this year, security challenges were reported for silver mining companies due to cartel interference, "affecting North American supply chains".

The US sees Mexico as a key piece for nearshoring and diversifying supplies away from China. In 2026, agreements are in place to integrate Mexico into the North American security architecture for critical minerals, prioritizing secure access over concerns about corruption or internal governance. This includes trade controls, price stabilization, and regulatory alignment to ensure supplies for "US defense". This is part of a broader US strategy to secure access to strategic resources.

Some analysts, as Alfredo Jalife, speculate that “pacifying” cartel-controlled areas could serve as an excuse for greater U.S. control over these resources, especially if military intervention creates “power vacuums” that justify a prolonged presence.

Now, we know very well that most US interventions are motivated by resources, disguised as "security threats". Designating cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” could legalize unilateral military actions.

Reports of US presence in narco regions (such as Michoacán and Jalisco) suggest covert operations already underway, possibly to “clean up” areas of mining interest... Worth mentioning that the CIA has conducted covert operations in Mexico for years.

Last week, the Mexican Senate authorized almost unanimously (105 votes in favor, 1 abstention) the temporary entry of 19 US Navy SEALs for a "training exercise" with Mexican special forces in Campeche, from February 15 to April 16, 2026. The official objective is to "improve special operations capabilities".

That SEALs “training” is a euphemism for covert operations in Mexico, possibly even connected to the recent death of El Mencho.

Also, Mexican silver is key to the US. Its "critical mineral" designation enables "security cooperation" that will mask economic/military intervention, eroding Mexico's sovereignty, and triggering cartel violence in key states.
 
Maybe, just maybe, this isn't "the usual CIA dirty tricks to hurt Mexico and slyly INCREASE the cartels' power," as a number of you seem to think.

Maybe, just maybe, this is actually a genuine police action against the leadership of one of the most violent paramilitary/terrorist organizations on Earth. And one that Trump 'forced' (persuaded, really, using his 'art of the deal') Mexican president Sheinbaum to undertake.

His first name was Nemesio, which means Nemesis, an astonishingly appropriate name given how he probably saw his role in life (waging 'bloody vengeance' against everyone). And he was a former Mexican police officer, not someone 'made that way by those evil gringos'.

I know the comparison is unfair because Mexico is so much bigger and the problem of parallel pseudo-police/military cartels is thus so much worse, but Mexico ought to 'own' this problem and 'go full Bukele' on the cartels. This BS has gone on too long.

Sure, it's supported in no small part by gringo banks, gringo weapons and gringo appetites, but El Savador's president Nayib Bukele obliterated the ramified structures of satanic/cannibalistic narco-terrorists overnight, the CIA didn't stop him, and El Salvador's now enjoying relatively good times.

Go for it, Mexico, go max.
 
The update for today so far is that acts of arson and blockades continue in some states (Jalisco, Michoacán, Veracruz, Colima and others), but not as widespread as yesterday. The state of Jalisco continues in "Code Red" and attacks to businesses continue in capital Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta in the Pacific Coast. There could be civilian casualties but is not clear if indeed this is the case.

Also, gunfights continue but again, not as intense as yesterday, as the Military continues to canvass the state of Jalisco, looking for Cartel members and performing raids on houses, depots and establishments linked to the organization. There are reports of weapon seizures.

Interesting that Veracruz still is active, indicating its importance as a hub. Generally speaking the Colima port in the Pacific Coast is their most important one, from where they ship to California, their most important center of distribution in the US. But the port of Veracruz could indicate an Eastern Coast route, and perhaps also a route to Europe.

Here is a map of the retaliatory acts from yesterday:

1771882299065.png
 
Niall said:
Maybe, just maybe, this is actually a genuine police action against the leadership of one of the most violent paramilitary/terrorist organizations on Earth. And one that Trump 'forced' (persuaded, really, using his 'art of the deal') Mexican president Sheinbaum to undertake.
Click to expand...

Certainly could be the case. There are rumors that nobody in the government's judicial structure was in the know, not the Governor, nor the State or Local police and even higher ups. There is just no way that this guy could ever be caught off guard like this, while still holding great power and influence over great parts of the government. So this could indicate that the US forced its hand to make it happen.

Also to consider, a Maduro-like situation. The official narrative is that a love interest gave away the location. Could be, but if this is actually the case, I would argue a close associate is more likely.
 
mabar said:
You made me laugh ... I am not that sure Mexico will get involved in another war against drugs/cartels, at least not on its own. With certain pressure from the US, perhaps.
Click to expand...
Mexico has never waged war against its cartels. That's why it became such a serious problem. Its politicians said they were 'waging war against the cartels', but those politicians were put into office by the cartels (or bribed/compromised/threatened once in office).

A real war against the cartels would require at least a million soldiers to take down the estimated 175,000 active narco-terrorists in Mexico.

Anyway, that's just me fantasizing. It's doubtful Mexicans can even rely on their military to obey orders to 'do a Bukele'.

Yesterday's operation is probably limited to what we saw: specific targeted action against the Jalisco Cartel.
 
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