The stock markets are already crashing

[Shared Joy]

23 Nations Around The World Where Stock Market Crashes Are Already Happening
POSTED ON AUGUST 18, 2015

_http://conspiracyanalyst.org/2015/08/18/23-nations-around-the-world-where-stock-market-crashes-are-already-happening/

You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen. The truth is that one is happening right now. All over the world, stock markets are already crashing. Most of these stock market crashes are occurring in nations that are known as “emerging markets”.
....
Emerging market currencies are crashing hard, recessions are starting, and equity prices are getting absolutely hammered.

Posted below is a list that I put together of 23 nations around the world where stock market crashes are already happening. To see the stock market chart for each country, just click the link…

1. Malaysia

2. Brazil

3. Egypt

4. China

5. Indonesia

6. South Korea

7. Turkey

8. Chile

9. Colombia

10. Peru

11. Bulgaria

12. Greece

13. Poland

14. Serbia

15. Slovenia

16. Ukraine

17. Ghana

18. Kenya

19. Morocco

20. Nigeria

21. Singapore

22. Taiwan

23. Thailand

Maybe you are already aware of this, as everything exists in the present, just different angle of view.
It is hard to watch all this with detachment and getting prepared in the meantime, yet, if one wants to be of service, a clear mind and an unshakable intent is definitely needed. Hopefully the solutions are already existing in an indefinite present.
Joy

 

[Mark7]

Maybe you are already aware of this, as everything exists in the present, just different angle of view.
It is hard to watch all this with detachment and getting prepared in the meantime, yet, if one wants to be of service, a clear mind and an unshakable intent is definitely needed. Hopefully the solutions are already existing in an indefinite present.
Joy

Well said, but I doubt that anything will "fix" a problem that runs so deep. Any type of storm can be creative in its destruction it seems.

 

[Shinzenbi]

I've read the article and found the economic analysis very poor . Quantitative easings are not mentioned, while they are precisely what keeps the stock markets high. The mechanism is easy to catch : QE maintain worldwide financial flows and as long as there will be QEs, stock markets will be high. Theoritically there is no limit to this practice. 4 major economic actors of the world are currently doing massive QEs : USA, Japan, UK and European Union. 97% of the money created through QEs is directly used into financial operations, not into real economy. That's why stock market indexes are much higher than they should be. They are completely and totally disconnected from the economic fundamentals. To sum up these ideas in just a sentence : excluding liquidity, stock market indexes would be close to 0. For instance in France, CAC 40 is around 4600 points today but its real value is below 2000 points. And the same is true for all worldwide indexes. I think these indexes would even be at their lowest since their creation. A stupid idea behind QEs is that they will trickle down into real economy. Can someone see it ?

What this article should say is that stock markets are not crashing but already crashed. They are just artificially maintained at high values thanks to massive and regular liquidity injections in the financial system, ie quantitative easings. And according to these indexes, everything is fine economically speaking.

If you are looking for indexes and figures that show the real state of economy (real economy, not financial/virtual economy), interesting ones are Baltic Dry Index (assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea), power consumption, tires consumption, Caterpillar machines sales, and of course real joblessness rates.

 

[sitting]

What this article should say is that stock markets are not crashing but already crashed.

No.

What we've seen recently, and this morning in particular -- is a work in progress. The process of "market crashing" is still at an early phase in my opinion. With the signs now fairly clear. Currencies, commodities, and equities all participating. (With real estate a bit behind but following.) There's no safe harbor with the exception of maybe cash.

Unlike Greece, all the major countries & markets are now trapped in it.

The bulk of the damage is likely to come in the month of September. With violent bounces along the way (giving false hope that the worst is done.) But all that may be illusory. And when it's finally done, probably in October, it will reflect the utter exhaustion of mind and spirit (not to mention wealth). Then we get a "bottom."

If things hold true to form, the climax spike to the absolute low will likely be on either the 9th, the 19th, or the 29th of October. (My best guess.) By then, the devastation will be much worse than that of the 2007-2008 crisis. And money may be the least of our worries. (Think riots and general disorder.)

It goes without saying that any earth change event will simply magnify the overall effect. And one can even speculate that this man driven market melt down is in anticipation (hence diverting our attention) from what the heavens have in store.

A cosmic cleansing. Long hinted by the C's.

These are my mostly intuitive (but informed by experience) feelings at this moment. I could be very wrong ... so please take everything with a grain of salt.

FWIW.

 

[sitting]

Today's U.S. stock market action gave a bearish signal of the extreme kind. A huge failed rally. Odds are high for significant carnage in the days ahead.

Without engaging in too much minutiae, I will post updates in the financial sector when I see fit. Aside from a big earth change event (which is likely as well), this is perhaps the next greatest influence on our 3rd density lives. Bears watching.

The caveat is of course: I could be very wrong.

FWIW.

PS
Might not be a bad idea to have extra cash, and food around.

 

[Tracy Anne]

Today's U.S. stock market action gave a bearish signal of the extreme kind. A huge failed rally. Odds are high for significant carnage in the days ahead.

Without engaging in too much minutiae, I will post updates in the financial sector when I see fit. Aside from a big earth change event (which is likely as well), this is perhaps the next greatest influence on our 3rd density lives. Bears watching.

The caveat is of course: I could be very wrong.

FWIW.

PS
Might not be a bad idea to have extra cash, and food around.

Will look forward to your updates sitting. Lets hope we dont need those stocks and supplies of extra food and cash....as always its better to be prepared.

 

[Eboard10]

Wanted to share an interesting article written by Avi Gilburt, an Elliott Wave trader, about what's been driving the Chinese stock market down and what influence does the PBOC really have in influencing the exchange rate.

_http://www.marketwatch.com/story/currency-war-in-china-or-market-forces-at-work-2015-08-25

Currency war in China or market forces at work?

We read many articles last week speculating as to the cause behind the Chinese government's decision to devalue their currency, the renminbi or yuan. Almost everything that we have read revolves around some form of conspiracy theory, subtly implying that the Chinese government is setting forth its dastardly plan to wage a currency war against the rest of the world. China, of course, has stated that they are simply allowing their currency to become more responsive to market forces. So which is it — all-out currency war or just market forces at work?

Now let's keep in mind there are only two methods for a government to directly control the value of its currency. The first method involves that government printing new money, thus artificially devaluing their own currency. The second method involves a government using their foreign currency reserves to buy back their currency, thus artificially supporting their own currency.

So, in the first case, we have a scenario where a government is printing an endless supply money, and the second case, a scenario where a government is forced to liquidate their own foreign currency reserves. Neither of these scenarios are sustainable over the long term.

As we can see by looking at the long-term chart of the U.S. dollar vs. the Chinese yuan, there were times in which the Chinese Central Bank (The PBOC) successfully managed to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar. In fact, for the 10-year period from May of 1995 to June of 2005, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to Chinese yuan remained fixed within a very tight 1% range. During this time there were more buyers of yuan than there were buyers of U.S. dollars.

In order to maintain the currency peg, the Chinese government simply increased their money supply by printing more yuan and used that increased money supply to purchase U.S. dollars, thus pegging the exchange rate and keeping the value of the yuan artificially low relative the U.S. dollar. The dollars that China was purchasing then went into China's foreign-exchange reserve fund, which also grew to over $700 billion by June of 2005.

In June of 2005, the Chinese government allowed the yuan's value to increase, or the value of the dollar to decrease relative the yuan. The PBOC was still intervening in the marketplace, but instead of pegging the exchange rate at a constant value, they "managed" the exchange rate, thus allowing the yuan to appreciate more slowly relative the dollar. During this time, the PBOC was still printing yuan and purchasing dollars, however, even the PBOC could not maintain a fixed peg on the currency as we entered the heart of what we call in Elliott Wave parlance "a 3rd wave down."

This period of appreciation for the yuan continued until July of 2008 when in the global finical crisis hit the world economies. During this time, there was a flight to safety to the dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index experienced a nearly 26% appreciation in value. We can see this reflected in the price of the USD/CNY.

During the height of the crisis, there was actually a period in which the price of the USD/CNY consolidated sideways, meaning the numbers of buyers and sellers were relatively equal. This allowed the PBOC to maintain a true peg until July 2010 when the strength of yuan buyers forced the PBOC to once again let the currency appreciate in value.

This "managed" appreciation of the yuan continued until January of 2014 when the 20--year downtrend of the USD/CNY currency pair finally came to an end. In April of 2014, we saw the beginning of a trend in the liquidation of China's foreign-currency reserves which were almost certainly used to intervene in the currency markets. This intervention is continuing to this day, and as of July 2015, the PBOC has sold over $317 billion of the roughly $4 trillion of foreign-currency reserves that they held at the peak of June of 2014.

The PBOC has stated publicly that it does not intend to allow the yuan to devalue further, but unfortunately, it is not up to the PBOC. As long as there are more buyers of U.S. dollars vs. Chinese yuan, then the pressures of the market will continue to drive the price of the USD/CNY higher, thus further devaluing it.

This brings us back full circle to our original question: currency war or just market forces at work? Well, given the data that we have available to us, it should be rather evident at this point that we are not dealing with an evil underhanded plan by China to start a currency war. Rather, we are simply witnessing the market forces at work. At the end of the day, even the mighty government of China is powerless to stop the even greater powerful force that is the larger market.

All in all, it looks like the PBOC's ability to control the exchange rate is very limited since the volume traded on the markets is much bigger than the measures employed by the central bank, like QE or acquiring foreign reserves. The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey on foreign exchange turnover (page 11) showed that in 2013 the global FX volume reached a daily average of $5.3 trillion. The USD/CNY pair was being traded at a daily average of $113 billion; today this number is likely much higher (in 2010 it was at just $31 billion).

The message being conveyed in the article is that markets are driven by sentiment rather than by direct involvement of central banks. The impact that central banks have on the markets is more psychological in nature and even then it can have a different outcome than what is hoped for. For example, on Sunday the PBOC announced that they would allow pension funds to invest in stocks, and yet the markets plunged when they opened the following morning.

Thoughts?

 

[Pierre]

The message being conveyed in the article is that markets are driven by sentiment rather than by direct involvement of central banks.

As a general rule, it seems that markets are controlled by big players who also control for a big part 'market sentiment' (through media) and central banks.

This being said 'market sentiment' and 'central banks' do, of course, play a role. For example the QEs conducted by Japanese, US, and European central banks certainly had an impact on the markets (commodities, bonds, shares...) over the last few years.

it's not easy to identify all the big players but I would noy be suprised to find some of them involved in the BIS, Goldman & Sachs, Morgan, Rotschild.

 

[Pierre]

What this article should say is that stock markets are not crashing but already crashed. They are just artificially maintained at high values thanks to massive and regular liquidity injections in the financial system, ie quantitative easings. And according to these indexes, everything is fine economically speaking.

If you are looking for indexes and figures that show the real state of economy (real economy, not financial/virtual economy), interesting ones are Baltic Dry Index (assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea), power consumption, tires consumption, Caterpillar machines sales, and of course real joblessness rates.

What you describe is the unsustainable decorrelation between real economics and financial markets while the first should drive the latter.

But for years markets have been free from any economic fundamentals because instruments like Quantitative Easing, High Frequency Trading, Derivates and sky high leverage have totally disconnected the financial sphere from reality.

So yes, the economic state of the world is gloomy (except for the top 0.1% who do extremely well and are a main cause of the turmoil) and financial figures are a scam.

The good news is that re-colleration is happening and soon real economic data and financial results will fully converge at the very bottom of every single chart.

 

[sitting]

Will look forward to your updates sitting.

Hi Tracy Anne,

We're into the month of September. A key setup month -- if an October crash is to occur.

The C's once said there're perpetual contending forces regarding such. One side for collapse ... the other for continuation of norm.

There's (I think) presently a strong effort exerted by the continuation faction. Made clear by this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

The yield curve is structured strongly in their favor. Short rates near zero, in sharp contrast to previous stock market peaks. This is highly unusual -- and is indicative of a supreme (desperate?) effort at crash prevention. I really don't know if it will work or not. But it is something to keep in mind.

My best guess is deeper trouble right around the corner. But I could be very wrong. Either way, we won't have to wait long to find out.

FWIW.

 

[sitting]

My best guess is deeper trouble right around the corner.

And that remains my best guess.

Friday gave a potentially telling sign. Good news (no hike) -- but bad market action. The chart pattern is also telling. At the end point of a contracting triangle. These pictures are simple but often reliable -- in revealing the next trend direction.

The breakdown was clear & decisive in the German DAX ... less so in the SPX.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DE%3ADAX+FUTURES&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8

I tend not to pay attention to "economics" data and such. I've come to the belief it's totally under their dictate. It's simply a function of which faction has the upper hand (as mentioned by C's.)

On Thursday, the continuation faction spoke (no hike). But in the coming days and weeks, the collapse faction may have their say. We'll just have to wait & see.

Of course the usual caveat: I could be very wrong.

FWIW.

 

[Tracy Anne]

Thanks for these updates Sitting.

 

[Andrian]

I've read this Mike Snyder article about the critic situation of the Deutsche Bank, on SOTT, i will leave a small quote from the article:

Is something about to happen in Germany that will shake the entire world? According to disturbing new intel that I have received, a major financial event in Germany could be imminent. Now when I say imminent, I do not mean to suggest that it will happen tomorrow. But I do believe that we have entered a season of time when another "Lehman Brothers moment" may occur. Most observers tend to regard Germany as the strong hub that is holding the rest of Europe together economically, but the truth is that serious trouble is brewing under the surface. As I write this, the German DAX stock index is down close to 20 percent from the all-time high that was set back in April, and there are lots of signs of turmoil at Germany's largest bank. There are very few banks in the world that are more prestigious or more influential than Deutsche Bank, and it has been making headlines for all of the wrong reasons recently.

Just like we saw with Lehman Brothers, banks that are "too big to fail" don't suddenly collapse overnight. The truth is that there are always warning signs in advance if you look closely enough.

In early 2014, shares of Deutsche Bank were trading above 50 dollars a share. Since that time, they have fallen by more than 40 percent, and they are now trading below 29 dollars a share.

It is common knowledge that the corporate culture at Deutsche Bank is deeply corrupt, and the bank has been exceedingly reckless in recent years.

If you are exceedingly reckless and you win all the time, that is okay. Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, they have increasingly been on the losing end of things.

Prior to the "sudden collapse" of Lehman Brothers on September 15th, 2008, there had been media reports of mass layoffs at the firm. To give you just a couple of examples, CNBC reported on this on March 10th, 2008 and the New York Times reported on this on August 28th, 2008.

When big banks start getting into serious trouble, this is what they do. They start getting rid of staff. That is why the massive job cuts that Deutsche Bank just announced are so troubling...

Deutsche Bank aims to cut roughly 23,000 jobs, or about one quarter of total staff, through layoffs mainly in technology activities and by spinning off its PostBank division, financial sources said on Monday.

That would bring the group's workforce down to around 75,000 full-time positions under a reorganization being finalised by new Chief Executive John Cryan, who took control of Germany's biggest bank in July with the promise to cut costs.

Cryan presented preliminary details of the plan to members of the supervisory board at the weekend. A spokesman for the bank declined comment.

Deutsche Bank has also been facing mounting legal troubles. The following is a brief excerpt from a recent Zero Hedge article...

The bank, which has paid out more than $9 billion over the past three years alone to settle legacy litigation, has become something of a poster child for corrupt corporate culture.

In April, Deutsche settled rate rigging charges with the DoJ for $2.5 billion (or about $25,474 per employee) and subsequently paid $55 million to the SEC (an agency that's been run by former Deutsche Bank employees and their close associates for years) in connection with allegations it deliberately mismarked its crisis-era LSS book to the tune of at least $5 billion.

But it was out of the frying pan and into the fire so to speak, because early last month, the DoJ announced it would seek to extract a fresh round of MBS-related settlements from banks that knowingly packaged and sold shoddy CDOs in the lead up to the crisis. JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citi settled MBS probes when the DoJ was operating under the incomparable (and we mean that in a derisive way) Eric Holder but now, emboldened by her pyrrhic victory over Wall Street's FX manipulators, new Attorney General Loretta Lynch is set to go after Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC,UBS AG and Wells Fargo & Co. ...

And a couple of min ago i found this article on sputniknews:

A number of representatives of the financial institution were earlier accused of money laundering activities amounting to $6 billion.

After 134 years in the Russian market, Deutsche Bank confirms leaving its investment banking business in Moscow. In early summer 2015, the bank’s officials were accused of being involved in money laundering activities. The allegations concerned bankers who allegedly laundered about $6 billion from 2011 to 2015 on behalf of its Russian clients.

According to Deutsche Bank’s statement, the closure of its office is primarily connected with the sanctions, investigations into share trades and the economic slowdown in Russia.

The financial business in Russia became less lucrative due to economic sanctions imposed by the West and following recession, media reported.

I wonder if the only motive behind the closure of the Deutsche Banks's offices in Moscow was the corruption allegations and the "imposed economic sanctions", i doubt it...
Just my 2 cents

 

[sitting]

For whatever reason (VW or otherwise), the German DAX looks exceedingly vulnerable at this juncture.

A break below last month's low (9320) will be telling. Surprisingly, a 40% collapse of Chinese market has not yet fully impacted markets in the west. But a corresponding decline in the DAX may eventually swing the tipping point. The economic fallout needless to say will be severe.

From the perspective of the German DAX, the upcoming month of October is not looking good.

Caveat: I could be very wrong.

FWIW.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yeah, Germany, and the whole of Europe, and the rest of the "West" is looking very shaky. The Deutsche Bank problem is a ticking time bomb (as are other very large banks). I read that article on SOTT this morning. The real economy is already in VERY bad shape, so all the prolonging and manipulations of stock markets, etc. are secondary at this point. U.S. and many European countries are in a depression with very high unemployment - especially for the younger age groups (18 to 35 year olds). Japan has been in something of a depression since around 1989, and never came out of it.