According to Biden, "Biden cured the economy"
President Biden claimed to have "cured the economy" last week, days before global stocks plummeted Monday.
"Mr. President What do you want your legacy for Gen Z to be?" a reporter asked.
"That I cured the economy. And the environment. And a few other small things," Biden responded.
They cannot allow ordinary people to think that the economy is doing badly. So Biden inherits Harris the illusion that everything is just fine, that the U.S. economy is on the right track because then Kamala Harris represents the continuation of that right track called Bidenomics.
But there is another group of people who don't buy the la la land story.
JPMorgan sees a greater chance of a US recession this year
JPMorgan Chase analysts now see a greater chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession by the end of the year.
In a Wednesday analyst note, JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman raised the odds of an economic downturn this year to 35%, up from their previous 25% estimate, citing easing labor market pressures.
"U.S. wage inflation is now slowing in a manner not seen in other DM [developed market] economies," they wrote. "Easing labor market conditions increase confidence both that service price inflation will move lower and that the Fed's current policy stance is restrictive."
They still see a 45% chance of a recession in the second half of 2025.
JPMorgan analysts in a Wednesday note raised the odds that the U.S. economy slides into a recession this year to 35%, citing easing labor market pressures.
www.foxbusiness.com
One factor influencing the fear in the financial markets following the announcement of the unemployment figure was compliance with the Sahm Rule.
The rule stipulates that a
recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate is at least a half-percentage point higher than the 12-month low.
en.m.wikipedia.org
In July, the jobless rate unexpectedly jumped to 4.3%. Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4.13%, which is 0.63 percentage points higher than the 3.5% rate recorded in July 2023.
So, according to the rule, this means recession, but well, JPMorgan says for after the election.
Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist has suggested that the rise in unemployment is due to the increase in the number of available workers, including immigrants.
This is part of the reason why Trump has an anti-immigrant policy. So if the average American finds out that they can't get a job because there is a immigrant, possibly illegal, holding a job, with lower pay and benefits, they may not only vote for Trump but light the fuse (stir up feelings) against migrants like in Europe, which would be very bad for Kamala Harris' aspirations.
