Trump's 'Liberation Day': US govt imposes tariffs to 'reset' global trade, 'MAGA', 'defeat' China - Will it work?

[Puma]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the trade tensions with China, as an embargo. He noted that this situation is unsustainable and expressed optimism about potential de-escalation, though formal negotiations had not yet started.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914731443369988166

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WH: 18 proposals on paper for trade deals​

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Tuesday that foreign nations have submitted 18 written trade proposals to the US negotiating team.

"There is a lot of progress being made. We now have 18 proposals on paper that have been brought to the trade team," she added. The press secretary noted that the negotiating team will meet with representatives from 34 nations this week alone.

Earlier, Politico reported that the White House was nearing preliminary trade agreements with Japan and India to prevent substantial US tariff increases, though crucial specifics would likely need to be negotiated in subsequent discussions.

WH: 18 proposals on paper for trade deals

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Tuesday that foreign nations have submitted 18 written trade proposals to the US negotiating team.

breakingthenews.net

... But no sign of China.

Didn’t they say they’ve been in touch with almost 70 countries? Surely there are other countries that still do not know what to propose and that do not look like Nayib Bukele of El Salvador.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1909342547043823981

 

[Puma]

On April 22, 2025, U.S. stock futures rose following statements from President Donald Trump indicating a de-escalation in trade tensions and a softening stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Specifically, Trump suggested that tariffs on China, previously escalated to 145%, would be reduced "substantially," signaling a potential easing of the trade war with Beijing. He also stated he was not planning to fire Powell, reversing earlier threats that had unsettled markets. These comments, coupled with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's signals of de-escalation, boosted investor confidence, leading to a rally in futures markets.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914817988038971605

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914801801569697981

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[Puma]

White House mulls slashing China tariffs to between 50-65%, WSJ reports​

The U.S. government is considering cutting its tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The China tariffs are likely to come down to between 50% and 65%, the report added citing a White House official.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/white-house-mulls-slashing-china-tariffs-between-50-65-wsj-reports-2025-04-23/

Markets have already begun reacting favorably, with major indices rising on expectations of a more cooperative trade climate.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915001307007488058

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iranian counterpart that the US "abuse" of tariffs has lost popularity and isolated itself from the international community.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915034560657842256

Iranian art of the deal

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914753185987649717

 

[Puma]

President Trump said on April 22

“I think we will make a deal with China. If we don't make a deal, we will set it. I think they will want to be a part of the United States. We're doing great. Golden Age.”

Also Trump said Wednesday [We are talking to China] "every day."

China official reveals this is a lie. China and the US have not held any trade discussions. There isn’t a trade deal in the making.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915377130222875107

It seems that Trump is doing this theater not only to calm the stock market, retract firing Powell but also to calm the Top retailers CEOs of Walmart, Office Depot and Target.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915137091563917717

Walmart, Target And Home Depot CEOs Meet With President Trump To Talk Tariffs​

The $8.5 trillion retail industry and the 132 million American households it serves are facing rapidly rising prices across the board should the proposed reciprocal tariffs be imposed. The National Retail Federation estimated tariffs could cost Americans up to $78 billion in annual spending power across six categories of goods, including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods. That estimate does not include food and beverage, which totaled $1.5 trillion in spending last year for off-premise personal consumption, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

American voters want government policy officials to focus on bringing down inflation and the cost of groceries as their top priorities rather than implementing tariffs to reset global trade, according to an NRF/Morning Consult survey among 2,000+ voters conducted at the end of March, before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Some 76% of those surveyed expect prices to go up if tariffs are implemented. Rising prices will be a blow to all American households, but most especially to those in vulnerable communities, such as low-income households, working-class families, the elderly, families with small children, rural communities, farmers and small businesses.

Walmart, Target And Home Depot CEOs Meet With President Trump To Talk Tariffs

Three top retail leaders met at the White House to discuss tariffs, their impact on consumer prices, potential supply chain disruptions and product shortages.

www.forbes.com

 

[Puma]

But the bonanza will not be for everyone in the short term as millions of workers will become unemployed.

American companies that cannot import, because the final price to the consumer will be high, affecting orders, will in turn affect other related products such as toys, Christmas trees, ornaments, kitchen utensils, clothing and footwear among others, i.e., a chain reaction of company closures and layoffs.

● American Toy Asociation estimated 80% of toys sold in the U.S. are sourced (mainly in China)​

The report revealed that 96% of American toy companies are small and medium-sized and that 45% to 46% predict they may go out of business within weeks or months due to the current tariff policy. Toy Asociation​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916299684903088281

● A tough year for laid-off bureaucrats.​

As of April 14, 2025, the New York Times tracked more than 55,000 confirmed cuts, more than 76,000 employee buyouts, and more than 145,000 other planned reductions; cuts total 12% of the 2.4 million civilian federal workers. Wikipedia ​

● Declining Chinese freight ship visits to U.S. An approaching wave of retail shortages will affect US consumers. Shelves will run short of goods in stages.

Companies are expecting many impacts, from price increases to consumer wariness, and orders of big-ticket items have surged on the expectation of sticker shock. Recent U.S. shipments data illustrate the tariff mitigation measures the companies are deploying to manage the delicate balance of supply and demand. A pullback in Chinese imports has been seen in recent Walmart, IKEA and Target orders, according to data from SONAR. CNBC ​

The MAGA base accepted the "temporary pain" challenge (hoping to see China's collapse in passing to make amends for the affront) others not so much and view Trump's plan with skepticism. Time will tell​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914862204383580300

 

[Serendipity]

And this. DJI could reach up to 140k level based on the fibonacci extension levels of the 1929 top and 1932 bottom (supercycle wave 3 top and wave 4 bottom).
You can see that the price chart respected all the fibonacci levels throughout its history.
And you can see that once it crossed and retested the 1.618 (first yellow circle), the price went to 2.618. It's possibly now doing the move from 2.618 (which it retested in the second yellow circle) to 3.618 (although it might peak at 3.272 or 3.414 and not reach 3.618).
Price action and the current narrative is simply retesting the fibonacci extension 3 level at around 35-36k.
It might seem crazy, the target of 140k DJI, but the price does what the price does (it often goes to meet 3.618 level), and especially if the parabolic 'summer' phase is coming, that price is not out of the realm of possibility in the coming few years
Not a financial advise of course, but just a theory.

I think I went a bit overboard with 3.618 target of ~140k for DJI. 3.414 target of 89k seems more reasonable for a peak, before a final crash that I see coming immediately thereafter.

 

[Puma]

Keep it simple

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916875186097328331

Big show. Many saw Amazon's decision to include the cost of tariffs in product listings as an attack to President Trump. On the other hand consumers can quickly determine which products are made in US.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1917196832028979488

https://twitter.com/x/status/1917214482771702252

Keep it simple

https://twitter.com/x/status/1917219929566187794

 

[axj]

I think it is possible to reach a middle ground where the tariff income from some goods can be used to offset the higher prices by reducing the income tax, while also bringing back manufacturing for other goods.

Whether they can pull it off in such a balanced way is the big question.

 

[SummerLite]

I found this informative on how China is handling the tariff war. The strategies are to wait Trump out hoping for internal turmoil in the US against Trumps policies, dump US bonds, draw out economic pain for Trump. Amplify public anger in the US against Trumps tariff using CCP propaganda such as he's destroying the world economy. I thought that one was particularly interesting. She says these methods are highly sophisticated at inserting their talking points into social media which is probably world wide but predominately in the US now. Although I haven't been following this latest drama with the tariffs I have caught bits of this anger and fear. She says most people wouldn't even know this was happening as they listen and repeat whats said. These talking points are probably being repeated on MSM. They also tried to gather neighboring countries to form a coalition against the US tariffs. This has failed however because poorer countries can't afford to loose trade with the US.

My impression of this woman is someone who is straight forward without a slanted anti CCP agenda which is something considered on the forum when it comes to China. It all sounds likely and reasonable to me. The full show is on Youtube.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913420459976392739

 

[PopHistorian]

Sachs has always been on the liberal side on things, so you do have to take some of what he says knowing that. So his use of the standard Democratic rhetoric on class warfare is not surprising. But he is right about the tariffs, just as he is right about the U.S.'s mistakes regarding Russia and the Ukraine.

Just a note. Here is Sachs speaking about his belief in the need for government at all levels, including global. My trouble with such centralization is that it ends diversity in the ways of doing things at the point where centralized. Ultimately, people will know and accept just one way, with no other way to be witnessed and evaluated in practice. It reminds me of the slave class of Mauritania -- people born into slavery generation after generation with, literally, no conception that they can be other than slaves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918762191937003578

 

[SummerLite]

Just a note

Here are a few comments from your post on Sachs,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918765969528193031

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) are a set of targets and indicators that UN member states agreed to use to frame their political agenda over the 15 years from 2015 to 2030. They were the “blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all” and. They address the global challenges of poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, peace and justice.

 

[Puma]

Now Trump wants to destroy Hollywood? 100% tariff on movies imports. "We want movies made in America" he said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919405619557138778

No one knows exactly what percentage of Hollywood movies are made outside the U.S. The lack of hard data reflects the difficulty of tracking production, as many U.S. films are partially shot overseas for economic, logistical or creative reasons, but there is no centralized record that accurately quantifies this. Some estimate it to be nearly 80%.

What Trump is talking about when he says the film industry is dying in the U.S.

Movie production by countries

Possibly Trump was watching this weekend the "Mulan" movie and said "Oh evil China isn't paying taxes on this movie and nobody knows more about movies than me."

The animated version of Mulan was made at Disney Studios in Florida and the live action version was made in New Zealand with locations in China. Globally the animated version (1998) grossed $304.3 million and in China did not like it and the live action version (2020) only grossed almost $38 million globally with $23 million in China alone, which has been one of the many failures of the U.S. Disney company.

It is evident that Hollywood stars are doing very well, since they receive millionaire salaries. So it seems there is no crisis in Hollywood but a lack of creativity. The "woke Ideology" has done a lot of damage to the film industry mainly in the US and the latest flop was Disney's Snow White.

On the other hand, American films have historically been used as a tool for political, religious and military propaganda. "American Sniper", for example, received logistical support from the Pentagon in exchange for portraying the military in a favorable light, which some critics viewed as covert propaganda.



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[Puma]

He has done his homework

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919197672352727065

U.S. film production 2016-2025

The table below lists a yearly breakdown of information about movies produced by production companies based in United States.​

So he saw the chart and said "oh, at the end of my first term we were making a lot of movies, and with Biden production slowed down, it must be the world fault, taking advantage of the United States"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919210518440472984

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[seek10]

Chinese exporters dodging US tariffs – FT

Third countries are shipping the goods while hiding their place-of-origin, the outlet has reported

www.rt.com

Chinese exporters are using various methods to avoid steep US tariffs, including shipping goods through third countries to obscure their origin, Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing trade consultants, customs officials, and social media posts.

The practice, known as “place-of-origin washing,” involves rerouting goods through countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, and re-exporting them to the United States with new certificates of origin.

Same thing happened when Modi tried to ban some stuff ( reduce dependency, trade deficit and promote local production) from China and it took a year for them to realize it.

 

[axj]

Same thing happened when Modi tried to ban some stuff ( reduce dependency, trade deficit and promote local production) from China and it took a year for them to realize it.

Russia has been doing the same thing, importing some Western goods through third countries like Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, etc.

I think both the Chinese manufacturers and the American importers of Chinese goods can find similar ways to avoid the high tariffs, if the tariffs remain that high and no US-China agreement is established.