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Tropical Storm Melissa to strengthen into major hurricane: Latest forecast​


Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to intensify into a major hurricane over the weekend and bring catastrophic flash flooding and landslides to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.

Here’s the latest forecast:

Melissa is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday as it lashes the Caribbean with heavy rain and destructive winds

Hurricane conditions are expected to first hit southern Haiti on Saturday and then reach Jamaica on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

It could potentially be the strongest hurricane to impact Jamaica in more than 35 years and could potentially be a multi-day major hurricane event Sunday through Tuesday as Melissa strengthens and moves extremely slowly near or south of the island.

The storm has already led to the death of an elderly man in Haiti who was killed by a downed tree, according to The Associated Press.

On Friday evening, Tropical Storm Melissa continued to churn about 215 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving at only 2mph. This extremely slow movement looks to be the trend for several more days, which gives it more opportunity to significantly intensify.

 

Hurricane Melissa strengthens as it barrels towards Jamaica​


Hurricane Melissa is forecast to become a rare category five storm as it turns towards Jamaica, bringing life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

The cyclone, which had winds of up to 120 mph (195 km/h) as of 06:00 GMT, is currently turning north-west in the Caribbean and is expected to make landfall by Tuesday, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

It warns of power cuts and damage to infrastructure as Melissa brings up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain and sea level surges as high as 13ft (4m) above ground. "Seek shelter now," residents have been told.

Melissa is the 13th hurricane in this year's Atlantic season, which typically ends in November.

A category five hurricane is the strongest type, with winds of at least 157mph.

While Melissa is set to weaken to a category four before reaching Jamaica, the NHC said there was "very little practical difference in the overall impacts" upon landfall, and that the hurricane will be "at least that intensity" when it hits the island.

Landslides already being caused by the hurricane have already killed two in Haiti, the nation's Civil Protection agency has said.

Melissa is forecast to pass over Cuba by Wednesday before moving through the Antillas Mayores and out into the Atlantic.


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Comment: These types of events tend to intensify when they coincide with geomagnetic storms. Let's wait and see.​
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Oct. 27th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. This is a low confidence forecast because of busy and confusing CME activity on Oct. 23rd, when this minor CME left the sun. SpaceWeather
 
Comment: These types of events tend to intensify when they coincide with geomagnetic storms. Let's wait and see.
GEOMAGNETIC STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK: A minor CME is heading for Earth, followed close behind by a high-speed stream of solar wind. Their combined impact could cause G1/G2-class geomagnetc storms on Oct. 28th, 29th and 30th. SpaceWeather.com

Melissa is now a category 5 hurricane. Jamaica is going to get hit very hard!

Hurricane Melissa is now the strongest storm on the planet this year​


Strongest storm this year: Melissa underwent extreme rapid intensification, strengthening to a rare Category 5 with winds of 175 mph and stronger gusts, making it the strongest storm on the planet this year.

• Jamaica’s worst hurricane: Melissa’s outer bands are lashing Jamaica with strong winds and heavy rain. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for vulnerable coastal areas of Jamaica ahead of the unprecedented storm’s expected landfall Tuesday morning.

• Catastrophic impact: Up to 40 inches of rain, 13 feet of storm surge and 160 mph sustained winds will cause “extensive infrastructure damage” that will cut off communities, the National Hurricane Center warned. Melissa has already killed three people in Haiti and Jamaica each and one person in the Dominican Republic.

Could Melissa be strengthening further?

From CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman
Melissa remains a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 175 mph as of 2 a.m. ET, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, the minimum central pressure of the storm has decreased from 909 millibars Monday evening to 901 millibars early Tuesday.

In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm, so this drop indicates that Melissa may be gaining strength in the coming hours. For reference, Hurricane Katrina’s lowest pressure was 902 mb, making Melissa even more intense than the 2005 storm that devastated Louisiana.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters continue to fly into the storm to collect valuable wind data, so we will stay tuned to see if they find stronger winds in Melissa’s eyewall this morning ahead of its projected landfall.


 
While this hurricane hangs off Jamaica, east-central Florida has been inundated with rain from a separate storm system, a 6.5M earthquake has struck off the Leeward Isles of the Caribbean, and US military build-up against Venezuela continues.



 

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