Democracy for sale? Why the EU must break with Serbia's Vučić
The recent student-led mass protests in Serbia have shown the EU’s cooperation with the country's president Aleksandar Vučić to be deeply misguided. The EU must realise that Vučić can no longer offer stability.
Vučić has enjoyed relative support from the European Union since he came to power in 2014. Criticism of his regime has been muted despite his crackdowns on media freedom, manipulation of election results through ballot-stuffing and importing of voters from neighbouring Bosnia, close relations with China and Russia, and a lack of progress on relations with Kosovo.
As the EU has ignored these concerns to maintain political stability in the Balkans by working with president Vučić, political scientists have satirically labelled Vučić’s regime a ‘stabilocracy’.
The EU’s relative silence on the recent protests has been deafening for liberals and pro-Europeans in Serbia.
Here is a peaceful protest movement that is calling for the development of a European-style democratic government in Serbia. The European Parliament has made statements in support of the protests.
But the EU has not followed up with any practical support. Compare this to the Maidan uprising in Ukraine in 2014, when the EU responded by banning visas and freezing the financial assets of those it deemed responsible for the violence. It also prohibited the export of equipment to Ukraine that could be used by the government for "internal repression."
Democracy vs minerals
The EU’s support for Vučić is now widely perceived in Serbia to be a quid pro quo for a corrupt mining deal.
Anglo-Australian mining conglomerate Rio Tinto has been trying for years to mine lithium - essential to producing electric car batteries – in Serbia’s Jadar Valley.
In response to mass protests against the proposed mining deal between the Serbian government and Rio Tinto in 2022 just before an election, the government declared that the project was over. Then, after another election in 2024 (Vučić likes to hold snap elections about every two years to keep everyday politics mired in campaigning rather than governing), the Constitutional Court suddenly declared that the 2022 annulment of the deal was unconstitutional. The decision showed that the judiciary serves the interests of president Vučić.
Days later, outgoing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, vice-president of the European Commission in charge of the Green Deal, Maroš Šefčovič, and representatives of car manufacturers BMW and Stellantis signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a strategic partnership on the Jadar lithium mining project.
The peculiar way that elections, a decision of the constitutional court, and the MoU were all signed within days makes the EU complicit in Vučić’s corrupt undemocratic manoeuvre to get the deal done.
Written statements that the mining operation will conform to EU environmental standards are not believed in Serbia, where the government and private companies regularly flout domestic environmental laws.
Also, the environmental impact of lithium mining has proven too controversial to tap into Germany’s own reserves – seemingly confirming Serbs’ suspicions that lithium mining is fundamentally incompatible with European environmental standards.
The mining deal is regularly portrayed in Serbia as a colonial project - lithium for BMW in return for a polluted country and a richer President using his money to further strangle democracy. It seems the EU is happy to have a dictator on their doorstep if German car makers get lithium to make electric cars that Serbs cannot afford. Think of it as the EU’s equivalent of Trump’s minerals deal with Ukraine.
Public support for EU membership has steadily fallen in Serbia in recent years.
EU backing for the protesters might have swayed some Serbs back towards the EU. Instead, for many Serbs, the EU’s hypocrisy has been confirmed.
Democracy is the most important thing unless there are precious minerals to be had.
Vučić's exit or democracy's demise
Vučić’s supposedly stable regime is weaker than ever. Pro-European liberals and pro-Russian ultra-nationalists alike have participated in the protests.
The Serbian president and his SNS party, supposedly a centre-right party, have lost Serbia’s farmers. He has lost military veterans. Vučić’s choice is clear – pursue genuine reform and lose power or become more authoritarian, more pro-Russian and pro-Chinese and turn Serbia into a Balkan Belarus.
There is a clear way for authoritarian dictators to shore up their popularity – starting a war. We’ve seen it with Putin, and the wounds of the conflict of 1990s are still raw in Serbia.
Even civil unrest within Serbia would likely spill over into neighbouring countries given that they contain Serbian minorities.
If the EU stands for democracy rather than just for lithium, it must take a new position in Serbia soon. Support for Vučić is no longer support for stability if it ever was.
If the EU stands for democracy rather than just for lithium, it must take a new position in Serbia soon. In the wake of student-led mass protests, support for president Vučić is no longer support for stability if it ever was, writes political analyst Luke Bacigalupo from Belgrade.
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